PECOTA Mets Projections: This Team Might Be Decent

Brad Penner-US PRESSWIRE

The Mets will be a decent team in 2013, according to PECOTA

Baseball Prospectus has officially released its PECOTA projections for the 2013 season, and the Mets come out looking halfway decent. The system, named after 1992 Mets alumnus Bill Pecota, projects the Mets as an 80-82 team this year, a record that would be fairly competitive with their National League East rivals.

Team W L
Washington Nationals 88 74
Atlanta Braves 82 80
New York Mets 80 82
Philadelphia Phillies 80 82
Miami Marlins 66 96

PECOTA is crazy, you say? Well, there's at least a reason the system rates the Mets as highly as it does. Even after trading away R.A. Dickey, it sees the Mets' rotation as a strength.

Name IP ERA
Johan Santana 131 3.43
Jon Niese 180 4.09
Shaun Marcum 144 3.32
Matt Harvey 174 3.59
Dillon Gee 164 4.08

And the bullpen projects quite well here, too. Frank Francisco, Scott Atchison, Brandon Lyon, Bobby Parnell, Josh Edgin, Pedro Feliciano, and LaTroy Hawkins are all projected to post sub-4.00 ERAs. That would be a very welcome change from the Mets' 2012 bullpen, which was one of the worst in Major League Baseball.

The Mets' lineup, though, looks somewhat mediocre in the system's forecast. The outfield looks particularly weak, and the infield looks good-not-great. So if things really break right for the Mets with their mix-and-match approach in the outfield and perhaps a major bounce-back year from either Daniel Murphy or Ike Davis, PECOTA thinks they'll be in the thick of the wild card hunt. And last year, a .500 winning percentage was enough to hang around the race for the second wild card spot through the grand majority of the season.

For now, the PECOTA projection is at least gives Mets fans a little bit of hope. Most prognosticators won't have hopes this high for the Mets. Here's hoping PECOTA got it right.

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