Community Projection: David Wright

Jared Wickerham

What kind of season will David Wright have? Provide your own projection.

David Wright is essentially a New York Met for life. This is a welcome development, although I must confess that I felt a stronger sense of relief rather than happiness upon hearing the news. Relief that Wright wouldn't depart with a feeling of unfinished business, as Jose Reyes did. Relief that Wright wouldn't be traded for Peter Bourjos, hat tip FanGraphs. And relief that trolling Mets beat writers could no longer get their jollies talking about Wright wearing another uniform:

Chipper Jones is retired, Wright is a Met, and it'll be that way for a long time. Suck it, beat writers. With Wright's future as a Met no longer uncertain, we can focus our attention on what to expect from him going forward.

Mets fans should be treated to at least a few seasons of Wright's late prime. He turned 30 this past December after putting together an all-around strong season in 2012. His strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate decreased for the second season in a row, while his performance in the field noticeably improved from recent seasons. These two aspects of his game dragged down his value from 2009-2011. If he can continue to make regular, solid contact at the plate and pick it at third base, there's reason to believe that he'll earn that $138 million.

Forced to point to a reason to worry about Wright, I'd go with his first half/second half split in 2012. He posted an OPS of 1.004 with a 13.2% strikeout rate in the first half vs an OPS of .750 with a 20.7% strikeout rate in the second half. Yes, he was playing above his head in the first half, but somewhere in the back of my mind I'm sweating about how poor he looked at the plate during those last two months. What if his first half of 2012 was just a wild aberration and his current true talent level is closer to his 2011 performance? It's best not to think about these things. Not yet, at least.

I'm bearish on Wright, where bearish means an All-Star caliber season and him being the most valuable player on the team. Post your Wright projection in the comments in the same format as below. I'll compare our projections to actual results at season's end.

David Wright

PA: 652
HR: 20
AVG: .298
OBP: .381
SLG: .480

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