FanPost

It's A Monthly Thing: In Search of What to Make of Ike Davis



Another maddening day at the ballpark included some very mixed signals from everybody's favorite slick fielding, cleanup number 6 hitter Ike Davis. After a tap out to the pitcher and two more ugly strikeouts Ike rocks one out of the park and saves an error and and out with his glove.

Is this the turning point we've all been waiting for? Or is it just another tease of what could be but never will? We're probably another thousand at-bats away from knowing for sure but what fun is there in waiting that long?

One thing we do know is that sadly the optimists who were adding Ike's 2011 April to his June-September 2012 to project a 35+ HR All-Star campaign are wondering what's going on. Welcome to the club. Is Ike just a streaky hitter? Will those streaks even out enough to provide suitable value at a power position? Are the coming raises from his current $3.125m salary better spent elsewhere with The cheaper Dude hovering nearby?

I figured looking at Ike by month would at least distract me and maybe even provide a useful clue. Probably not but I've got the spreadsheets done, so let's start by looking at some select numbers for each of Ike's 15 months in the bigs - I've combined Sept/Oct stats to avoid too many small sample months.



AB

HR

BB

K

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

1

Apr-10

34

1

6

8

.324

.415

.500

.915

2

May-10

98

4

16

30

.235

.348

.418

.766

3

Jun-10

106

4

4

26

.264

.291

.425

.716

4

Jul-10

98

6

10

28

.214

.287

.459

.746

5

Aug-10

84

0

17

25

.250

.369

.333

.702

6

Sep/Oct-10

103

4

19

21

.330

.434

.524

.959

7

Apr-11

95

5

13

22

.337

.414

.600

1.014

8

May-11

34

2

4

9

.206

.289

.382

.671

9

Apr-12

81

3

6

24

.185

.241

.309

.550

10

May-12

78

2

6

25

.154

.214

.282

.496

11

Jun-12

87

6

14

23

.264

.363

.563

.926

12

Jul-12

95

9

4

28

.221

.257

.537

.794

13

Aug-12

87

5

12

15

.287

.370

.517

.887

14

Sep/Oct -12

91

7

19

26

.242

.373

.527

.900

15

Apr-13

65

3

8

22

.169

.260

.308

.568

Now let's clean it up by deleting the two small 34 AB sample months of April 2010 and May 2011. One featured a great .915 OPS while the other was a poor .671 OPS so they sort of cancel each other out. Now we're left with 13 months.

80ABs+2012

AB

HR

BB

K

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

May-10

98

4

16

30

.235

.348

.418

.766

Jun-10

106

4

4

26

.264

.291

.425

.716

Jul-10

98

6

10

28

.214

.287

.459

.746

Aug-10

84

0

17

25

.250

.369

.333

.702

Sep/Oct-10

103

4

19

21

.330

.434

.524

.959

Apr-11

95

5

13

22

.337

.414

.600

1.014

Apr-12

81

3

6

24

.185

.241

.309

.550

May-12

78

2

6

25

.154

.214

.282

.496

Jun-12

87

6

14

23

.264

.363

.563

.926

Jul-12

95

9

4

28

.221

.257

.537

.794

Aug-12

87

5

12

15

.287

.370

.517

.887

Sep/Oct -12

91

7

19

26

.242

.373

.527

.900

Apr-13

65

3

8

22

.169

.260

.308

.568

Not surprisingly when Ike is good, he's very good. So let's separate the five months out of the remaining thirteen where he was "Awesome Ike." He ops'd .887 or higher and in four of those he was .900 or above. Makes ya want to print those "I Like Ike" buttons!

AWESOME

AB

HR

BB

K

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Sep/Oct-10

103

4

19

21

.330

.434

.524

.959

Apr-11

95

5

13

22

.337

.414

.600

1.014

Jun-12

87

6

14

23

.264

.363

.563

.926

Aug-12

87

5

12

15

.287

.370

.517

.887

Sep/Oct -12

91

7

19

26

.242

.373

.527

.900

463

27

77

107

.294

.393

.546

.926

You had me at .926 ops. Even though in his "awesome" monthly streaks he's still striking out once every 4.33 Abs (138 K's over 600 Abs) so what? If you're slugging .900+ I'll be the first to say: "Thank you Sir, may I have another." After all, his walk rate is creating a 99 point spread from BA and a HR every 17.15 AB's puts him in that glorious 35 dingers a year territory. So in five out of thirteen months we've got an All Star. What's "Good Ike" look like?

GOOD

AB

HR

BB

K

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jul-12

95

9

4

28

.221

.257

.537

.794

May-10

98

4

16

30

.235

.348

.418

.766

Jul-10

98

6

10

28

.214

.287

.459

.746


291

19

30

86

.223

.297

.471

.767

What have we here? Well based on the 291 AB sample you've got a guy who'll mash 39 HRs over 600 ABs with a triple slash of .223/.297/.471 and isn't named Dave Kingman (Kingman: 37HRs/162 .236/.302/.478 career). Hmmm. He strikes out more and walks less than "Awesome Ike." He's also leaning on a whacky July 2012 when he nailed 9 home runs in 95 ABs with only 4 walks, 28 strikeouts and while batting .221. Some might argue any month where you slug .537 is awesome (even if you obp .257) and to each his own but I'm not one. But if you are then we probably need to blow up this category and downgrade the two other months to the next YAWN table.

Want a better batting and on-base skills? Then set your DeLorean Time Machine to June & August of 2010:

YAWN

AB

HR

BB

K

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jun-10

106

4

4

26

.264

.291

.425

.716

Aug-10

84

0

17

25

.250

.369

.333

.702


190

4

21

51

.258

.325

.385

.710

This 190 AB sample finds that what Ike gaineth in BA/OBP he loseth in power. His .710 OPS would have ranked 30th among 2012 1Bers even behind Ryan Howard and only rates one HR every 48 ABs. Probably enough for Adam Rubin to plant some non-tender rumors and certainly enough to be scouting replacements. And now for the hell Ike and we have been living through the last month . . .

BOO!

AB

HR

BB

K

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Apr-12

81

3

6

24

.185

.241

.309

.550

May-12

78

2

6

25

.154

.214

.282

.496

Apr-13

65

3

8

22

.169

.260

.308

.568


224

8

20

71

.170

.237

.299

.536

What's there to say? 224 ABs of horror which when combined with the two YAWN months equals a .204/.272/.333 player with a .605 OPS over 414 ABs.

So five out of Ike's thirteen months are abominable. For three he's been very much like Dave Kingman and for five he's been the slugger of our dreams.

Of course months are an arbitrary way to evaluate a baseball player but given the three worst and three of the five best have occurred over the last seven months he's played it's hard to dismiss the bad months as outliers.

I fear I'm beginning to see a guy who's often really great and nearly as often completely hideous - but worst of all when he's somewhere in between he ain't all that. Maybe we shouldn't be too surprised if it turns out that's the real truth about Ike Davis but we'll surely be disappointed.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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