FanPost

Vegas in Queens: Snake Eyes

So we've got a new shortstop. The "Anyone's gonna be better than Gee Ike Hefner Byrd Tejada" crowd is excited by Q's studly .333/.419/.484 line at Vegas.

While even they don't expect Q to provide that type of production, many are convinced he's a lock to provide a substantial offensive upgrade from Ruben Tejada's paltry baseline.

He might. Or he might not.

We've already had four players appear with both the Mets and the 51's this season. Most haven't had enough plate appearances to draw any statistically sound conclusions. But none of the four can have their tenure in Queens considered a success.

Since individual sample size make it impossible to draw anything more than anecdotal observations I thought it might be fun to combine their production to see if we can learn something.

First the combined AAA production of Andrew Brown, Juan Lagares, Colin Cowgill and Cap'n Kirk:

ABs

H

2B

3B

HR

BB/K

Slash

392

119

25

8

17

48/92

304/380/538

Wow! I'd want to promote that guy and the sample size of nearly 400 ABs suggests this is more than a hot streak.

Now it won't be a surprise that this combined player suffered more regression in the bigs than we'd like - but how much?

ABs

H

2B

3B

HR

BB/K

Slash

125

20

4

0

4

6/38

160/198/288

Huh? Our .304 hitter dropped to .160? That's worse than Tejada! In fact, it's in Ike territory! .288 slugging pct? Uggh!

A 30% k-rate? OK - it was 23% in Vegas. But a 4.5% walk rate? What happened to those eagle-eyed guys that walked 11% of the time in AAA?

The answer of course, is big-league pitching.

Now the mlb sample is only 125 ABs and I'm not going to tell you it's projectable. But it probably allows us to conclude that the difference between AAA and big league pitching is big enough to eat marginal and rushed guys alive. And that's what Q is. His mlb line is .220/.279/.302 for a reason. He's a marginal player.

Is it possible he's suddenly had a light go on? Anything's possible but at age 31 it's highly unlikely. Of course, he could have a 2-3 week hot streak out of the gate - I hope he does. But if he actually proves to be a carbon copy of Ruben v.2013, don't be too surprised. And don't get too angry. There's every reason to believe he might.


This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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