FanPost

"Original Mets" - Better Than The Current Ones

A recent thread featured some respectful back and forth on whether the Mets sucked at the draft. My position was we're probably about average, especially if you include IFA signings, but I figured I'd see if there was a reasonably easy way to shed some empirical light on the question.

I'm taking a look at how the current roster compares to one full of "original" Mets. That is guys who signed their first professional contract with the Mets after being drafted or via international free agency. Some got traded before ever seeing the bigs but since this exercise tries to examine how the Mets fare at drafting/signing unproven controllable talent, they stay Mets forever.

First, position players. On the left is all the guys who've had a plate appearance for the 2013 "current" Mets through Thursday. On the right I've removed guys that weren't "original" Mets and replaced them with guys who were. So we magically have Jose manning SS, Pagan in CF, Carlos Gomez in RF and Nelson Cruz in LF. We could even have Mike Carp replacing Ike about 67P PAs ago but perhaps we would have split 1B time between Duda & Ike.

When one "original" Met replaces a "current" Met, I gave the better player their full number of plate appearances/WAR and then pro-rated the lesser player down. It just so happens all the returning guys are better than the current guys.

So Tejada has 43 fewer PAs as he would have been our backup IFer until Reyes went down with injury. Duda gets pushed to the bench and winds up splitting time at 1B w/Ike. Returning Mets are in bold and guys who had their playing time lowered are bold/ital. And ital. guys are those who we get rid of when we limit ourselves to "original" Mets.

Starters

PA

WAR

Starters

PA

WAR

D Wright

215

2.2

D Wright

215

2.2

D Murphy

213

1.7

D Murphy

213

1.7

L Duda

195

0.2

N Cruz

220

0.8

M Byrd

142

0.9

C Gomez

204

3.4

M Baxter

96

-0.2

Angel Pagan

204

0.6

R Tejada

204

-0.2

J Reyes

43

0.6

J Buck

186

1.0

J Thole 354/-.1

186

-0.05

I Davis

182

-0.9

Ike Davis

90

-0.4

Tot Starters

1433

4.7

Tot Starters

1375

8.85

Bench

Bench

J Valdespin

93

0

J Valdespin

93

0

K Nieuwenhuis

17

-0.1

K Nieuwenhuis

17

-0.1

J Lagares

50

-0.4

J Flores 296/-0.2

30

0

R Ankiel

53

0.3

T Wigginton

40

-0.3

A Brown

18

0.2

R Tejada

161

-.15

O Quintanilla

3

0

L Duda

115

0.1

J Turner

82

0

C Cowgill

52

-0.5

A Recker

30

-0.1

Tot Bench

398

-0.6

Tot Bench

441

-0.46

Total - All

1831

4.1

Total - All

1831

8.4


At AAA

J Lagares

50

-0.4

M Carp

67

0.0

When healthy that's a pretty good lineup. Jose replaces Ruben, Pagan, Cruz & Gomez completely overhaul the OF. In fact we pick up 4 WAR from the starters!

The bench is equivalent but gives us one of Ike/Duda on it since I have them splitting time at 1B. Tejada's on the bench but is getting playing time due to Reyes injury. I've stashed Mike Carp at AAA because we need a RH bench guy in Ty WIgginton though Carp is slugging .580 this year .432 career.

Of course this isn't a perfect analysis and I had to do some fudging. i.e. Unless I've forgotten someone, I've got Josh Thole catching and backed up by Jesus Flores. Neither guy has played in mlb this season so I took their numbers from last season. fwiw Josh is hitting .329/.392/.507 at Buffalo.

The sum total is to pick up a net of 4.3 for the first 1/3 of the season.

How about the pitching staff? Let's start by looking at our current crop through Thursday meaning Marcum's latest outing vs. the Marlins is not included:

Current 2013 Mets Pitching







Starting Rotation

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

xFIP

WAR

Matt Harvey

11

78

9.69

1.96

1.85

2.88

2.5

Jon Niese

11

61.33

5.14

4.11

4.40

4.64

0.1

Dillon Gee

11

57

7.74

2.68

5.68

4.00

0

Jeremy Hefner

10

57

6.63

3.16

4.74

4.53

-0.1

Shaun Marcum

6

34.34

8.39

2.1

5.77

3.95

0.7

Aaron Laffey

2

10

8.1

4.5

7.20

4.65

0


51

297.67





3.2









Bobby Parnell

0

24.33

8.51

2.59

1.85

3.21

0.8

Josh Edgin

0

9.33

9.64

3.86

9.64

4.50

0

Collin McHugh

0

3

6

0

12.00

4.11

-0.1

Jeurys Familia

0

10.34

6.1

6.1

3.48

5.12

-0.3

Robert Carson

0

13.33

4.73

4.05

9.45

5.93

-0.8



60.33





-0.4

Greg Burke

0

14

8.36

2.57

3.86

3.08

0.3

Scott Rice

0

26.33

7.52

4.78

3.08

3.58

0.3

LaTroy Hawkins

0

23.34

8.1

1.54

3.47

3.07

0.1

Brandon Lyon

0

19.66

7.78

2.29

3.66

3.40

0.1

Scott Atchison

0

18

3

3

4.50

4.98

-0.1



101.33





0.7

Total Pen


161.66





0.3









Total 2013 Pitching

459.33





3.5

Next our "Original" Mets starting rotation will replace Marcum/Laffey with AJ Burnett, add Mike Pelfrey as fifth starter. For the pen, we get to add proven depth in lights-out Joe Smith, guys like Heath Bell & Matt LIndstrom and we even get Scott Kazmir as our lefty out of the pen.

"Original" Mets Pitching







Starting Rotation

GS

IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

xFIP

WAR

Matt Harvey

11

78

9.69

1.96

1.85

2.88

2.5

Jon Niese

11

61.333

5.14

4.11

4.40

4.64

0.1

Dillon Gee

11

57

7.74

2.68

5.68

4.00

0

AJ Burnett

12

76

10.54

3.43

2.72

2.91

1.7

Mike Pelfrey

6

27.66

4.7

2.93

6.85

5.29

0.3

Total Rotation

51

300





4.6









Bullpen








Bobby Parnell

0

24.33

8.51

2.59

1.85

3.21

0.8

Joe Smith

0

18

9.5

2.5

1.00

3.30

0.4

Matt Lindstrom

0

21.333

6.33

5.48

3.80

4.62

0.3

Heath Bell

0

20.66

10.89

1.74

3.92

2.47

0.5

Scott Kazmir

8

26

9.15

3.35

5.13

3.96

0.2

Josh Edgin

0

9.33

9.64

3.86

9.64

4.5

0

Collin McHugh

0

3

6

0

12.00

4.11

-0.1

Jeurys Familia

0

10.33

6.1

6.1

3.48

5.12

-0.3

Jeremy Hefner

10

26

6.63

3.16

4.74

4.53

-0.1

Total Pen


159





1.7









Total Pitching


459





6.3

Again, I've had to do some adjusting and make some calls. i.e. Hefner has a much better xfip than Pelfrey but Pelf has better WAR - you could go either way on the 5th starter. I had to pro-rate innings for guys like Kazmir, Hefner, Pelfrey or else our new staff would have pitched a lot more innings than the real Mets have. I kept Edgin as the 2nd lefty over Carson - you could give each a few innings.

Our new 1-2-3 features Harvey-Burnett-Niese - power-power-lefty and our pen is pretty sweet. Joe Smith is absolutely lights-out, both he and Heath Bell have better k and walk rates than Parnell right now! And Scott Kazmir as a LOOGY that can face righties is a luxury, though we'd have to hope his ERA catches up w/his XFIP.

With this pitching staff we pick up 2.8 WAR which added to the 4.3 from the position guys gives us 8.1 more wins than we have now. Eight more wins would have taken us from 22-29 (when I pulled these stats) to 30-21 .588 - can you say playoffs? Now of course is an abstract measure that doesn't translate literally and even if it did, I'm not sure that you can just "add 8" to the win total of one roster but it's fun to dream!

Of course, there's a dark side. Since these "magic beans" only allow us to use guys we first signed, there's no Zack Wheeler, Travis d or Noah S in our future. And we're really weak at catcher (what else is new) and LOOGY - unless I've forgotten any IFA's that might help either of those slots.

For a look at guys we've drafted who are still in pro ball you can click here though be aware if we drafted a guy, he didn't sign but got drafted elsewhere a couple years later, he will show up I did NOT use those guys for this exercise. I couldn't find anything similar for IFA's - so if there are any I missed I'd love to have them brought to my attention.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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