So how many games can the 2014 mets win? Using WAR I will try to figure out what kind of additions the Mets will need to be successful. Now of course WAR is not an exact science but it is pretty fun to play with nonetheless. So let's get started.
So first let's assume that a team full of replacement level players wins 50 games. This is somewhat accurate.
2013 Mets: 24 WAR 74 wins
2012 Mets: 23.2 WAR 74 wins
2011 Mets: 26.2 WAR 77 wins
2010 Mets: 30.9 WAR 79 wins
2009 Mets: 25.6 WAR 70 wins
2008 Mets: 38.7 WAR 89 wins
The 2014 New York Mets(hopefully)
Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud. Hopefully d'Arnaud steps it up next year and fulfills his potential. He certainly finished 2013 very well with a .333 BA in his last 10 games. Say d'Arnaud contributes a 2.0 WAR.
Total Catcher WAR: 2.0
First Base: The most likely configuration here will be a platoon of Lucas Duda and Josh Satin or maybe even Duda and Wilmer Flores. Yes sure we can sign Abreu or Morales or maybe even sign Cano and move Murphy to first but I am assuming that will not happen. I think a platoon can easily give us a 125 wRC+ or so first baseman. The combined oWAR of Duda and Satin this year was 2.3. Since they will both get favorable matchups I think a 2.5 WAR is very doable.
Total First Base WAR: 2.5
Second Base: Daniel Murphy's fWAR this year was 3. His rWAR was 1.8 but I think dWAR is stupid and his oWAR was 3.6.
Total Second base WAR: 2.5
Shortstop: This is where things get dicey. Can we trust Sandy or whoever that there will be a 2.0 WAR(Tejada put up a 2.0 WAR in his best season) shortstop in the 2014 Mets infield?
Total Shortstop WAR: 2.0
Third Base: Despite the occurrences of September 24, 2008, David Wright is still an absolute stud. All he has to do is play a full season and.....
Total Third Base WAR: 7.0
So the infield in total will give us: 16.0 wins.
Lets move on to the pitching. Assume that the man they call Matt Harvey will be firing fastballs on Opening Day.
1. Matt Harvey WAR: 6.0
2. Jon Niese: The lack of two early season starts in Siberia this year should help Jon get his 2012 form back. You know what these means? WAR: 3.0
3. Zack Wheeler: 1.1 WAR in 100 innings this year. I am expecting a full year and expected progressions from young Mr. Wheeler. WAR: 2.5
4. Dillon Gee: 2.2 WAR this year with the HORRENDOUS start as he was recovering from a tough injury. WAR: 2.5
5. If Mejia is healthy this spot is his. Mejia showed outstanding command as well as stuff in his 5 start cameo and the removal of bone chips from his elbow should have him throwing harder. However, he may get hurt so I will assume that this spot will contain some revolving door of Mejia, Montero, Torres/Dice K/Harang, and eventually, the man the myth the legend...THOR
Bullpen: I think the bullpen can be much improved this year. Bobby Parnell alone should contribute 1.0 WAR if he stays healthy. I think a 2.0 WAR is not an outlandish proposal.
So, total WAR from pitchers: 17.5
What does that leave? Ah yes, the Outfield!
Center Field: Juan Lagares. His WAR is heavily dependent on his outrageous defense. fWAR put him at 2.9 wins this year. rWAR at 3.7 Of course dWAR is heavily dependent on DRS which is dependent on assists and Juan Lagares had A LOT OF ASSISTS. Lets split the difference and then add on a couple ticks and assume that Don Juan will get a bit better with the bat. WAR: 3.5
Right Field and Left Field: These are where the variables come in. Can we expect Mr. Alderson and the Wilponzis to keep true on their promises and add some good outfielders? How about two solid .800 to .850 OPS players who between them can contribute: 5.5 WAR
Total Outfield WAR: 9.0
Let's assume a replacement level bench.
Total 2014 New York Mets WAR: 42.5 WAR. That translates to a 90+ game winner.
CONCLUSIONS: Thank you for taking the time to read this. This is my first fan shot so I apologize if it is a little rough around the edges. I am not the greatest of writers so I apologize for any grammar etc. So what have we learned? That there is a way that the Mets next year could be a contender and even a wild card team. Would you argue that any of the WAR values I posted for certain players are unreachable? The bottom line is that this team for the most part has to stay healthy. Not giving starts to the likes of Schwinden, Laffey, McHugh etc. can do wonders. Having a solid bullpen from Opening Day on is also a big necessity. Also it requires the Wilpons and Sandy to open up the bank account and go get us a few productive relievers, two above average corner outfielders, and a decent shortstop.
Once again, thanks for reading. This isn't an exact science, but I had a few hours to kill so I decided to have some fun with WAR. Basically all I wasted nearly 900 words trying to say is: