Community Projection Review: Lucas Duda

Elsa

Did Lucas Duda live up to expectations in 2013? Let's look back at the Amazin' Avenue community's preseason projections to find out.

Lucas Duda community projection

PA: 470
HR: 18
BA: .261
OBP: .340
SLG: .455

Actual stats

PA: 384
HR: 15
BA: .223
OBP: .352
SLG: .415

Snippet from community projection post:

If he could replicate his 2011 performance at the plate going forward, it would compensate for his atrocious defense and make him an almost-average contributor. However, it seems more likely that he won't hit well enough to make up for his glove, especially if he's not regularly sitting against left-handed pitchers.

Duda struggled with batting average and walked more than expected, but the community generally did a nice job here.

The big guy looked like an All Star in April, hitting .264/.436/.542 with five home runs. It was like watching Adam Dunn in his prime: strikeouts, walks, home runs, and terrible outfield defense. Duda has some talent at the plate, but not that much talent. He cooled off after his hot start, and his OPS sat at a still-respectable .791 when he went on the disabled list in late June with a left intercostal injury.

It took Duda a couple months to return to the big leagues. When he came back in late August after some time in the minors, he played first base exclusively, due to Ike Davis's struggles and injury. That April magic proved elusive, though, and Duda limped to the finish. Still, his 120 wRC+ was fourth-best on the team, behind David Wright, Marlon Byrd, and Josh Satin.

Duda might be the worst defensive outfielder in baseball and is clueless against lefthanded pitching, so talk of a first base platoon with Satin has been prominent this offseason. It's not an awful idea, especially considering the Mets' unappealing options at first base. However, I don't think estimating such a platoon's production is as simple as combining each player's numbers against favorable-handed pitching. I'll choose Ike's higher ceiling over a strict Duda/Satin platoon. But I don't feel strongly about it.

Check back in February to participate in the 2014 Community Projections.

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