The 2014 MLB draft, like the 2014 NBA draft, is a good one. The Mets also have the number 10 pick in this draft. This is somewhat bittersweet as the Mets were one loss away(damn you Harvey and your stupid 1 hitter) from the 7th pick and also one win away from falling out of the top 10(damn you Harvey and your stupid unearned run against Washington on July 26).
Anyways, we must take what we can get and the 10th pick is the highest pick we have had since 2010 when we drafted Harvey. This draft is probably the best draft since 2010, so logically we are drafting another Harvey...right?
I think that the trio of college pitchers: Carlos Rodon, Jeff Hoffman, and Tyler Beede will be gone by the 10th pick. Add Alex Jackson and (alas) the White Reyes Trea Turner to that list. I also think that the latest giant flamethrower bred from the soils of the Texas is also off limits(Tyler Kolek). Incidentally massive power pitchers like Thor are one of two things that Texas is famous for: the other being idiot governors. Okay...Texas rantz later but in this post I'll look at a few guys who should be in play for the Mets with the 10 pick. Now of course a lot could change as this time last year Sean Manaea was in play with the number 1 pick but I think there is a high chance that the Mets pick one of these guys listed below. For each player I will provide a summary of their sexy attributes(toolz), a brief writeup, a video, (realistic)ceiling(this is the draft, go take projections and floors and shove it), and risk factor. Yes, despite the fact that in my last fanpost I said Noah Syndergaard's floor was Roger Clemens I CAN somewhat accurately evaluate ceiling.
Let's start SEXY with.....
Michael Gettys: OF, Gainesville HS, Georgia
Height: 6'2" Weight: 205
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Tools: A lot(70 raw, 75 run, 80 arm, 65 field)
If Texas is good at breeding power pitchers, then Georgia's thing is definitely toolsy outfielders. Gettys follows his predecessors Byron Buxton, Clint Frazier, and Austin Meadows as the latest toolsy high school outfielders from Georgia. In fact, Gettys may have more physical tools than either of the three guys listed above(even Buxton). His physical profile is more along the lines of a Bubba Starling. He has tremendous raw power stemming from his strength, batspeed, and quick, short stroke. He is also a near-elite runner with a 6.43 60 yard dash and his arm is a cannon as it tops out at 100 from the outfield and the mid 90-s off the mound. Now you may be wondering: why is this kid not going in the top 3? The answer to that is his hit tool. I do think Gettys has a better present hit tool than Starling did when he was drafted but Gettys' hit tool is still extremely raw. His pitch recognition needs work as he oftentimes struggles against breaking balls. However, if Gettys eventually develops a 50 hit tool he is a star as he is all but guaranteed to stick in center field. Anything above a 50 hit tool and I think Gettys is a superstar. His ceiling is immense, and he would be a huge infusion of talent to a Mets system strapped for toolsy position players.
Ceiling: Role High 7, Superstar
Risk: Extreme, the hit tool is the most important one
Would he make sense for the Mets? In a word, yes.
Brady Aiken: LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS, California
Height: 6'4" Weight: 205
Tools: potential 60's across the board(fastball, curveball, changeup, control, command)
Aiken is one of my favorite players in this draft. Ignore what I said about ceiling and the draft earlier. Aiken probably has the best combo of ceiling and floor of any player who is likely to be around in the Mets section of the draft. He already has a polished three pitch mix which he commands well due to an easy delivery he can repeat like clockwork which is very rare for a prep pitcher. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 93. His low 70's curveball is a knee buckler and is currently more advanced than his changeup although both project to be above average pitches in the future. While Aiken may not have the physical projection that you want in a prep pitcher, a polished prep lefty who is the youngest player in the draft still has time to add velocity in my opinion and thereby raise his ceiling. At the present Aiken's future may be a lot like Jon Niese's although it's entirely possible Aiken changes that for better or for worse as he goes along the developmental path.
Ceiling: Role 6, Number 3 starter
Risk: Medium/High, yes he is a prep pitcher but is an extremely polished lefty with solid present stuff
Does he make sense for the Mets? Yes, the Mets have no impact lefties in their system outside of Steven Matz and Aiken is a guy who could move quickly despite the fact that he won't turn 18 till the middle of August.
Touki Toussaint: RHP, Coral Springs Christian HS, Florida
Height: 6'2" Weight: 185
Tools: Potential 70 fastball and curveball, 80 name
Toussaint is pretty much the opposite of Aiken as a prospect. Like Aiken, he is one of the youngest players in the class, but unlike Aiken, Toussaint oftentimes has no idea where the ball is going. However,Toussaint also has some of the best pure stuff in the draft with a fastball that can touch 97 with heavy life and should eventually settle into the mid 90's consistently as he gains mass on his lanky frame. Toussaint also has a very easy delivery. Toussaint's curveball is a devastating pitch. It can sometimes look like a right handed Clayton Kershaw curveball and catchers can have trouble holding onto it. Note that I said sometimes as like his fastball, Toussaint can struggle to control his breaker. Toussaint also has a changeup and a cutter both of which are currently raw pitches and well behind his 1/2 punch. The ceiling on Toussaint is immense, but his floor is also quite low. It is worth noting that Toussaint is quite inexperienced to pitching as he was a soccer player until high school which leaves hope that his command can improve enough for him too fulfill his immense potential.
Ceiling: Role 7, 1/2 starter
Risk: Extreme, needs multiple grade jumps with command and control to achieve top of the rotation ceiling
Does he make sense for the Mets? Toussaint has command problems but the raw stuff and projection may be too much to ignore if he is on the board at 10.
Jacob Gatewood: SS, Clovis High School, California
Height: 6'5" Weight: 190
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Tools: 70+ raw, 60 arm
Gatewood is pretty much the position player version of Toussaint. He has tremendous raw talent with tremendous batspeed which leads to immense raw power as anyone who watched him blast balls out of Citi Field should know. Given that Gatewood has a huge frame he has yet to fill into, his power potential is truly salivating. Despite his size, Gatewood has more of a chance to stick at short than many people think due to his athleticism and arm strength. Even if he does have to move off the position, he should make a fine defender at third or right. The problem with Gatewood is that, like Gettys, his hit tool has a ways to go. Gatewood's swing has a lot of unnecessary movement and the length of his swing as well his lack of bat control leaves him with a low floor. However, Gatewood has an immense ceiling, especially if he can stick at shortstop. As a prospect, he is similar in a lot of ways to Amed Rosario.
Ceiling: Role 7, All star
Risk: Extreme, Hit tool has a ways to go
Does he make sense for the Mets? The Mets have a similar prospect in Rosario but you can never have enough shortstop prospects with All Star ceilings. The Mets currently have two: Rosario and Cecch....
Yes, I must dig Cecchini whenever possible because I am an asshole and haven't had a clear beverage in 48 hours(unless you count Vodka as clear).
I think the players mentioned above are the 4 best who could be available to the Mets. Now let's get into a few players who are more incomplete but still appealing. However, I think it is unlikely that these players will be the best available because that player should be one of Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede, Jackson, Turner or the 4 above(should I make another Cecchini dig here? nah).
Grant Holmes: RHP, Conway HS, South Carolina
Height: 6'2" Weight: 190
Tools: Potential 70 fastball, 65 curveball
Holmes has two outstanding pitches already with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and touches higher. His power curve is in the low 80's although he can sometimes morph it into a slider in the mid 80's. He doesn't throw his changeup much in games, but flashes a solid average one outside of in game action. The problem with Holmes is his utter lack of physical projection. He is filled out and it is unlikely that he adds much velocity. But his current stuff is definitely good enough so that he can succeed even without too much physical gain.
Ceiling: Role High 6, Number 2/3 starter
Risk: High, he has two good offerings, okay command, and no real third pitch. And that's not an insult because if a prep pitcher had the things Holmes lacks he would be going near the top of the draft(Jameson Taillon, Dylan Bundy).
Luis Ortiz: RHP, Sanger HS, California
Height: 6'3" Weight: 220
Tools: Potential 70 fastball/slider
Ortiz is very very similar to Grant Holmes. He sits in the mid 90's like Holmes and he also has a very good breaking ball as his slider shows depth and two plane break in the mid 80's. Ortiz also has a very easy delivery. Unfortunately, like Holmes, Ortiz is maxed out physically which limits his ceiling. Ortiz and Holmes are excellent prospects, but in my mind a tick below the top prep pitchers Kolek, Toussaint, and Aiken. They would be excellent additions to any system but in this draft I think there will be more talent available at number 10. Again, it's early and a lot could change.
Ceiling: Role High 6, 2/3 starter
Risk: High, 2 good offerings but lack of physical projection and/or lack of a consistent third pitch leaves him out of elite tier of prospects in this class. Very similar to Holmes.
Michael Cederoth: RHP, San Diego State
Height: 6'6" Weight: 210
Tools: Potential 75 fastball, 65 slider
Big right hander out of San Diego State throwing triple digits. Sound familiar? Okay Cederoth isn't Stephen Strasburg but he is still pretty good. Cederoth is probably the hardest thrower in the draft outside of Louisville closer Nick Burdi who would be a lock to be drafted by the Mets if Omar Minaya was still running the show. Cederoth's fastball is near elite as it sits in the mid to upper 90's and touches triple digits. He is a college pitcher, but as we saw with Michael Wacha, 6'6" 210 college pitchers can still add velo and if Cederoth adds velocity, his fastball might be elite as a starter. Cederoth also features a very good breaking ball. The problem with Cederoth is his delivery and control and command. Cederoth's delivery is inconsistent in terms of his stride and release point which leads to inconsistent control and command. Cederoth also lacks a third pitch at this point. If he can develop that third pitch and more consistent command he could be a star but I would feel a lot more comfortable if he were in high school. On the plus side, Cederoth is a good athlete with some projection which always helps.
Ceiling: Role 7, Number 2 starter
Risk: Extreme(as a starter), Cederoth can very easily be an impact reliever but we don't draft impact relievers at 10. The ceiling is immense but it is unlikely that Cederoth gets there.
Nick Gordon: SS, Olympia HS, Florida
Height: 6'2" Weight: 170
Bats: L Throws: R
Tools: 60 run, 65 arm, 60 field
Son of Tom Gordon and brother of Dee, Nick Gordon has baseball in his blood. He is a good pitcher as he throws in the low 90's off the mound with a decent curveball(Tom Gordon's children must throw good curveballs). However, Nick's future is in the field as he has the chops to stick at shortstop long term. Gordon is a poor man's Trea Turner at this point as he has the physical tools to be an impact player in the field. However, Gordon's hit tool is questionable as he is a bit of a slap hitter and has to add a lot of strength to his frame to handle major league pitching, something his brother was never able to do.
Ceiling: Role 6, First Division Player
Risk: Extreme, Not much power potential leaves a lot of stress on the hit tool. Gordon's floor is probably Dee Gordon which is respectable but we don't want that at number 10 obviously.
Braxton Davidson: 1B/OF, TC Robertson HS, North Carolina
Height: 6'3" Weight: 215
Bats: L Throws: L
Tools: Potential 65 Hit/Power, 60 arm
After reading this profile, one might liken Davidson to Dominic Smith and the comparisons extend far beyond the fact that Smith was born on June 15. Davidson might be an even better hitter than Smith but Smith will probably provide more value in the field. Davidson has a smooth left handed swing with plenty of batspeed. This should enable him to hit for a high average and his advanced hit tool makes his usable power some of the best in the draft. In fact, Davidson, along with Alex Jackson, is probably the best hitter in this draft class. Davidson is a big guy with below average speed, so he will be confined to a corner outfield spot, allowing his plus arm to play, or first base. Wherever Davidson goes, he probably will be a fringe average defender but there is a high chance that his bat plays anywhere on the diamond.
Ceiling: Role 6, First Division Player
Risk: High, his bat will carry him and his bat is already very good, but the bat is his only path to the big leagues
Sean Newcomb: LHP, University of Hartford
Height: 6'5" Weight: 240
Tools: Potential 70 fastball, 65 slider
Newcomb is a big college lefty who has drawn Jon Lester comps. Not many lefties can match his velocity as he sits in the 92-95 range and can touch 97. His slider is also an easy plus pitch. One thing about Newcomb is that his performance has never matched his stuff despite the fact that he pitches for a smaller school. However, we have seen other pitchers like that who have gone on to do just fine. Besides results, Newcomb also lacks good control and command because he struggles to repeat his delivery. Newcomb's changeup is usable and as a lefty, he doesn't need a whole lot else besides his primary two pitches. The command and control are the biggest things here.
Ceiling: Role High 6, 2/3 starter
Risk: High/Extreme, like Cederoth, delivery and command/control issues are problematic for a college pitcher.
Dylan Cease: RHP, Milton HS, Georgia
Height: 6'2" Weight: 180
Tools: Potential 70+ fastball, 55+ curveball
Cease is all about projection. Which is saying a lot considering his fastball is already one of the better ones in the draft class as it touches 97. Cease is very athletic and has a ridiculous amount of armspeed which allows him to generate that velocity despite an easy delivery and a skinny frame. If he fills out, his fastball could be a monster pitch. Cease is very raw though, as his curveball shows promise but Cease does not have good control at all of the low 70's offering. His curveball is also a bit lacking in depth. Cease's command also needs work. The tools are here for a very good pitcher, but at number 10 there will likely be a safer pick available with just as much ceiling and probably lower risk.
Ceiling: Role High 6, 2/3 starter
Risk: Extreme, Cease is probably the riskiest player mentioned here due to his lack of a consistent second offering and command/control.
Last, but certainly not least, I want to look at probably the biggest wild card in the draft class.
Kodi Medeiros: LHP, Waikeka HS, Hawaii(oh yeah)
Height: 6'0" Weight: 185
Tools: Potential 60+ fastball, 70+ slider, 55+ changeup
Medeiros is nasty...very very very nasty. His slider could make him a LOOGY today and I'm not exaggerating as much as you would think. It's just a filthy pitch that is death to most hitters. His slider is in the mold of a Chris Sale or Randy Johnson, and again, I'm not exaggerating that much. I could write more about the erotic qualities of his slider but I am going to move on. Medeiros' fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95, and it has intense movement which makes it play up. Medeiros' changeup is still a developing pitch but it has potential. There is no doubt in my mind that Medeiros has the raw stuff to be a top of the rotation starter, but his delivery and size leaves a lot of people worried. Like Sale and Johnson, Medeiros comes out of a sidearm slot, but unlike Sale and Johnson, Medeiros is not over 6 and a half feet tall. The delivery along with his diminutive size have some people believing that he will be a reliever who will cause death and destruction, particularly to lefties. There is no doubt that Medeiros' stuff is nasty, and he can be downright unhittable with that armslot at times. However, his size and unorthodox delivery keep him from being near the top of this list although I am not sure yet whether his delivery is a plus or minus. His control is also a bit iffy and it may stem from the challenges of repeating such a delivery.
Ceiling: Role 7, Number 1/2 starter
Risk: Extreme, Medeiros will get to the big leagues on the strength of his stuff, but whether that will be as a starter is very much in question.
Thanks for reading all of this! This is a very very early look at the draft and obviously a lot could change but I hope that I have gotten you guys interested in a very deep and talented draft class. Who would you like to draft?