Community Projection Review: Ike Davis

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Did Ike Davis live up to expectations in 2013? **Spoiler alert** No, he did not.

Ike Davis community projection

PA: 599
HR: 36
BA: .267
OBP: .350
SLG: .529

Actual stats

PA: 377
HR: 9
BA: .205
OBP: .326
SLG: .334

Snippet from community projection post:

Ike is one of the few young position players on this team whose upside is well above just average. Despite his struggles against lefties, I think he puts it together this season. Home runs and defense, that's what Ike Davis does.

Whoops. Only Ike Davis whiffed worse this season than the Amazin' Avenue community did projecting Ike.

I bought into the idea that Ike's terrible first half in 2012 was a result of the valley fever he contracted that spring and lingering problems from his season-ending ankle injury in 2011. It appears that was too easy an explanation, and it wasn't wise to expect Ike to maintain his strong 2012 second half through all of 2013.

Ike struck out four times on Opening Day, a feat he would match twice more in 2013. Strikeouts became a theme for Ike; his 26.8% strikeout rate was the worst of his career. Even worse was the evaporation of his power. He hit just nine home runs and 14 doubles, leading to an isolated power of just .129. Compare to his pre-2013 Iso of .209. His 2012 season was shaky, but at least he hit a bunch of homers. All he had going for him in 2013 was a strong walk rate.

After another disastrous start to the season, Ike spent a month in Vegas in June and July getting right. He returned with a vengeance in the second half. However, his .954 OPS after the All-Star break wasn't enough to salvage the season, and an oblique injury put him on the disabled list for all of September. His overall season was so bad that he came in second place to Ruben Tejada in the Piazzas category Worst Position Player.

It once seemed likely that Ike would be traded this offseason but recent rumors suggest otherwise. Given the choice between Ike or a Lucas Duda/Josh Satin as the 2014 first base plan, well, I don't like my choices. Forced to choose, I'd go with Ike. He hit 32 home runs two seasons ago and has a higher ceiling than the in-house alternatives. He also has a lower floor. Let him play, but move to Plan B quickly if first-half Ike shows up.

Check back in February to participate in the 2014 Community Projections.

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