FanPost

AAOP: Fake GMing Ain't Easy

Last year, I created my first fake team, made some bold decisions, lucked out, and wound up with a roster of 25.7 WAR, a bench of 4-5 WAR, the same 2014 Mets bullpen plus Kelvin Herrera, and an okay starting pitching staff...I was pretty happy with my fake team.

But that was yesterday… And as Big Daddy Kane once said: "Fake GMing ain’t easy."

And with that, I embark on my second fake team ever...

Overall philosophy

- Unlike last year, I’m going with an approach that is more realistic for this FO.
- I’m keeping Harvey, Thor, Wheeler, and deGrom. I’m not selling low on Montero.
- I don’t think any of the game-changing bats (Tulo, Stanton, etc.) are realistic targets, so I’ll try to fill SS and LF with other players.
- No contracts to aging stars.

Assuming all the moves below can actually be accomplished – what would the Mets get with this plan?

1) A solid lineup, with a decent bench by mid-season at the latest.
2) A decent defensive team. If Travis can take a step forward, it should be pretty solid up the middle.
3) A solid if not stellar bullpen.
4) A solid pitching staff, with Thor, Montero, Matz, Verrett, etc. in AAA.
5) The Mets sacrifice no draft picks with this plan.
6) The final payroll of 77.6 million is wayyy under the proposed 95 million dollar budget. The logic here is that the Mets should have plenty of cash to acquire salary dump players at the deadline or for extensions and "missing pieces" trades/signings next year.

EXTENSIONS

Whether or not you feel the overall value in each extension is realistic, the 2015 salary is what’s relevant and should be realistic.

ZACK WHEELER EXTENSION – Starting in 2015, Wheeler will make 1 million, followed by 2.5/4/5.5/8/12 from 2016-2020, with 15/17 team options for 2021-22.

JUAN LAGARES EXTENSION – Starting in 2015, Lagares will make 1 million, followed by 3.5/5.5/8/10 from 2016-2019, with 13/15 million team options for 2020-21.

I’m going to hold off on d’Arnaud, deGrom, and Duda. A Duda extension is tempting, but I’m not sure I see the Mets keeping him after his final arbitration season.

TRADES OR TRAIDS!!

TRADE 1 – HERE’S THE DEAL

So the Mets need a corner OFer. I believe there is less than a 1% chance they sign Tomas, so I’m going with a more realistic, cost-effective option.

Mets trade Jonathan Niese, Kevin Plawecki, Matt den Dekker, and Cory Mazzoni to the Pirates.
Mets receive Starling Marte and OF prospect, Barrett Barnes.

Why would the Mets do this?

- They need another young OFer, and Marte is solid. He plays above-average LF defense, hits for high average, has some pop, and steals bases. He does strike out a lot, but given his age and track record, I think it’s a flaw that is more than tolerable. If they keep him in LF, he should be a perennial 4 WAR player.
- Marte is also dirt cheap. Over the next five years, he'll make 1/3/5/7.5/10 million, with two relatively cheap options for 2020-21.
- The Mets also get OF prospect, Barrett Barnes, who has some upside if he can ever remain healthy.
- Niese, den Dekker, and Mazzoni will be missed, but the Mets certainly have the depth to make up for these losses. I didn’t want to trade Plawecki until after 2015, because I’m a little concerned about TDA’s injuries/concussions. However, I address the catching depth concern within another trade below.
- The Mets free up Niese’s salary.

Why would the Pirates do this?

- With Polanco, McCutchen, the emergence of Harrison, and Bell and others rising up through their ranks, Marte is very much expendable for the right package. I don’t see the Pirates getting a much better deal than this.
- Despite Niese's injury concerns, the dude is a solid pitcher, and the Pirates have him and a nice contract with 2-4 years of control.
- Now that the Pirates have likely lost Martin, Plawecki gives them a solid young catcher for the next few years.
- Mazzoni is a guy who should be able to contribute in the bullpen soon, and if they choose, they could continue to develop him as a starter.
- MDD is a solid 4th/5th OFer, and they could use a backup CF.
- The Pirates I’m sure don’t want to part with Barnes just yet. Still, they have better prospects, and at least a few in the same talent spectrum.
- It's a lot of value in return for a player the Pirates should be able to replace internally.

TRADE 2 - HERE’S THE DEAL:

Mets trade Daniel Murphy, Bobby Parnell, Ruben Tejada, and pitching prospect, Jack Leathersich, to the New York Yankees.
Mets receive Dellin Betances, catching prospect, Gary Sanchez, left-handed pitching prospect, Ian Clarkin, and OF prospect, Aaron Judge.

Deal is contingent upon Murphy signing an extension.

Why would the Mets do it?

- There’s no way I would extend Murphy into his 30’s. That leaves two choices: 1) Hold onto him for the year and maybe recoup a compensation pick – OR – 2) Trade him now, and get something more. I'll go with #2.
- The Mets get another strong young reliever, and perhaps their future closer. With the way TC burns through arms, Familia’s 2014 workload, Mejia’s surgery and injury concerns, and bullpen regression likely with one or two pitchers, I love the idea of adding another high-upside, cost-controlled arm such as Betances.
- Within a year, Sanchez could end up being a useful backup or another trade chip.
- Clarkin and Judge are two first-round picks who don’t need to be added to the 40-man roster yet. This is like getting two compensation picks in the deal.
- I was in favor of tendering a contract to Parnell, but acquiring Betances makes Parnell easier to deal.
- I also wanted to keep Tejada, but given the Yankees incredible dearth of SS options, Tejada seems like the obvious choice to help complete this deal.
- Leathersich is a nice prospect, but his control issues make him a huge gamble.
- The Mets free up the salaries of Murphy, Parnell, and Tejada.

Why would the Yankees do it?

- Middle infield was a black hole in 2014, and the Yanks immediately add the 2B N.L. All-star to their team. Furthermore, I think Murphy’s numbers could very well blow up for a couple of years in a park like Yankee Stadium or Wrigley Field. Plus, Murphy can play 2B, 1B, and 3B, giving the Yanks a good deal of flexibility should there be more injuries to A-rod or Tex. They can also walk away from the less versatile Headley now.
- An argument could be made that Prado will become their 2B, but I think he has better value at 3B with Rodriguez DH’ing mostly. Also, Refsnyder has hit well in AAA as a 2B, but his defense is suspect and he’s no lock to hit like Murphy in the majors.
- While Tejada was scorned by Mets fans, he was better in 2014 than any of the Yankees’ shortstops. Even if the Yanks acquire a FA SS, Tejada should provide strong value as a backup MI.
- Losing Betances will sting, but Parnell should mitigate the loss if he bounces back. The Yanks also can afford an extension if Parnell looks like his old self. And the Yanks get a solid flier in Leather Rocket.
- The prospect losses will hurt, but not too much. Sanchez is blocked by McCann, and Clarkin and Judge are years away and certainly not locks to be anything special.
- In short, the Yankees sure up the middle of their infield and might not even lose that much now power in the 'pen if Parnell returns to form.

TRADE 3 – HERE’S THE DEAL:

Mets trade Eric Young Jr. to the Houston Astros.
Mets receive A-ball OF prospect, James Ramseyl.

Why would the Mets do it?

- The Mets aren’t keeping EYJ, so they’ll get some minors depth while they can.
- The Mets nab a 2013 7th round pick.
- Ramsey doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man.

Why would the Astros do it?

- The Astros backup LFers were bad last year, and while EYJ doesn’t provide a huge offensive boost, his defense is decent and his base running is elite. He’s a nice bench player and a veteran presence for their young team.
- Re: Ramsey - do the Astros really need another fringe OF prospect?

FA SIGNINGS

Well, I wanted to trade Dillon Gee and Soup for Brad Miller and a C+ prospect, but I couldn’t figure out if the deal made sense on Seattle’s end. Sooooo….

The Mets sign Stephen Drew to a 1-year, 6 million dollar deal.

Is this deal going to excite anyone? Not at all, but Drew's a solid bounceback flier. He was awful last year, but that could very well be an outlier given his crazy contract situation. And unlike a guy like Chris Young, Drew still plays above-average defense at a premium position. A left-handed SS also provides the manager with some nice platoon options.

Mets sign Daisuke Matsuzaka and Paul Maholm to minor league deals with invites to ST.

The Mets also make a few minor league signings for relief pitchers and position players.

ARBITRATION

The Mets come to terms with Duda, Gee, Mejia, Carlyle, and Eveland.

ROSTER AND BUDGET BREAKDOWN

Again, the total payroll is 77.6 million, under the proposed 95 million.

ROSTER Position Salary in millions ROSTER Position Salary in millions
LINE-UP SP
Duda 1B 4.3 Harvey SP1 0.54
Flores 2B 0.5 Wheeler SP2 1
Drew SS 6 deGrom SP3 0.5
Wright 3B 20 Colon SP4 11
Marte LF 1 Gee SP5 5.1
Lagares CF 1 18.14
Granderson RF 16 RELIEF (w/ 1 EXTRA)
d'Arnaud C 0.5 Mejia Closer 3.1
49.3 Betances RP 0.5
BENCH Familia RP 0.5
Recker C 0.5 Black RP 0.5
Kirk OF 0.5 Edgin LP 0.5
Soup IF 0.5 Eveland LP 1
Puello OF 0.5 Carlyle RP 1
Reynolds 2B/SS 0.5 Torres Long 0.56
2.5 7.66
TOTAL BUDGET = 77.6 MILLION

PROPOSED 2015 DAILY LINEUP

Marte, LF
Lagares, CF
Wright, 3B
Duda, 1B
d’Arnaud, C
Granderson, RF
Flores, 2B
Drew, SS

Notes: Yes, it sucks to have Grandy back in right, but this will be his last year as a starting OFer. He’ll either be dealt to make way for Nimmo or become the Mets version of Andre Ethier. I’m guessing it’s the former.

2015 OPENING DAY BENCH

Recker, C
Kirk, OF
Puello, OF
Reynolds, SS/2B
Campbell, 1B/3B/LF

Notes: This bench may or may not inspire in April, but by mid-season, I’m guessing it will be strong. Both Nimmo and Herrera should push their way onto the roster at some point, and if 2 of Puello/Reynolds/Campbell work out, the Mets will be in pretty good shape sooner than later.

Also, Puello is going to get a couple of months of spot starts and pinch hits against lefties to see if he can at least fulfill that role. If he fails and needs to be DFA’d, perhaps he isn’t picked up by another team and at least remains in the system.

2015 OPENING DAY ROTATION

Harvey
Wheeler
deGrom
Colon
Gee

Notes: While this rotation doesn’t seem to have room for Thor/Montero/Matz, we all know that injuries are going to happen. If everyone miraculously stays healthy and Thor is ready in May, the Mets can move either Gee or Colon to the ‘pen long-man role…considering age, I would move Colon. But I doubt it comes to this.

2015 OPENING DAY BULLPEN

Mejia – Closer
Betances
Familia
Black
Torres
Edgin
One of Carlyle/German/Eveland/etc.

Notes: I’m keeping Mejia as the Closer. He was 28 of 31 in save opportunities, and that's more than fine. Plus, the Mets will have really strong relievers pitching in potentially higher leverage situations earlier in the game.

I did come to terms with both Eveland and Carlyle, which could create a potential logjam if everyone is healthy at the end of ST. Still, the million on each is worth it to have the ‘pen flexibility in case of injuries.

2016

The Mets will have some arbitration increases and extensions to consider, but at least they will have 17 million coming off the books from the Colon and Drew contracts to go along with an already low 77.6 million dollar 2015 payroll. They should have plenty of budget space for extensions and/or for a difference maker or high-profile IFA.

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