FanPost

AAOP: Hunter Pence Does Not Support This Therefore You Should

Well another mediocre Mets season has gone by, but for the first time in years, I think there is a real reason to "wait for next year". I think that the Mets are in a great position to have some really good teams starting in 2015 and we don't have to do anything too fancy to make that happen, either. So let's get down to work.

First, let's identify the problems.

937b8ca2-00d7-45a3-abbf-31d7163b6eec_zps06b5f267.0.png

As we can see, we have a few fires that might threaten to burn the team to the ground. Those fires happen to be in right field and shortstop as my masterful MS Paintz can show you. We all love to shit on Hunter Pence, but he would fit pretty perfectly on this team. No I'm not advocating trading for Hunter Pence. Why? Because Hunter Pence would probably get lost in the big city. Furthermore, some more pitchers would always be nice. In this AAOP, I will attempt to solve these problems and build a sustainable team that can compete in 2015 and beyond.

Step 1: Who to Tender?

We're going to tender contracts to Daniel Murphy, Dillon Gee, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, Jenrry Mejia, Dana Eveland, Bobby Parnell, and Buddy Carlyle. Eric Young Jr. gets nontendered because he honestly can't do anything but run unless you believe his 2014 UZR. That's not worth 2-3 million. As much as I would like to non-tender Tejada, he still hits lefties at a good clip and plays above average shortstop defense. He's a bench player who can start in the case of an emergency and that's well worth 1.7 million. Dana Eveland and Buddy Carlyle don't figure to be major contributors, but they were effective in their time as Mets and bullpen depth is always important, so we're going to spend a million each on these guys even if they spend most of their time in Vegas. But fear not, not everyone who is tendered will actually play for the 2015 Mets which leads us to....

Step 2: Trades!

I don't know what the Wilpons are doing, but I can guarantee that it doesn't look like this:

breaking-bad-money-pile.0.png

With a 95 million dollar payroll, we really don't have much to spend. Therefore, platoons are the way to go in my opinion. If we can get a platoon partner for Lucas Duda and his career 75 wRC+ against left handed pitching, that would give us a really productive combo at first base. Similarly, if we can get a right field platoon on the cheap that would solve that problem for 2015 until Brandon Nimmo and co. are ready to contribute. So let's wheel and deal.

Daniel Murphy Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Jon Niese to the Toronto Blue Jays for Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Franklin Barreto, and Aaron Loup.

Blue Jays have a big hole at second base which Murphy fills. He's a 2.5-3 WAR player at the price of 8 million, so even if it's just a one year fix, the Jays can't do much better. And it,s not just a one year fix, because Murphy is open to signing an extension. The Jays have three spots in the rotation set with the Sun God, Buehrle, and Stroman, but it gets murky after that given the struggles of JA Happ and Drew Hutchison. Niese gives them a guy who has had some injury issues but is a strong number 3 type starter when healthy at a great price. Furthermore, the Jays need some outfielders, since rasmus and melky. are free agents and in Captain Kirk they get a guy who can play center field and hit righties at a good clip. In return, the Mets get a package headlined by Aaron Sanchez. While Sanchez showed he could be an good reliever, it's still a question that he can start given the major command issues he has had throughout his entire minor league career. So why do we want him? It's because in terms of raw stuff, Sanchez is up there with anyone with a mid to upper 90's fastball with serious run and a hammer curveball. His change is a work in progress, but shows signs of being an average or better offering as well. Furthermore, I think that by having Sanchez extending his stride more by using his legs and picking up his pace to the plate, we may have a remedy for his command issues as well as increase the deception on all his pitches due to a deeper release point. It's still an open question whether he can start, but if we can work with him we may have another top of the rotation starter with a floor as a good reliever, and I think that's a risk worth taking. Loup is a reliever who further bolsters our pen as he has posted rWAR's above 1 each of the last two years. He can get righties and lefties out, but is better against lefties. In Barreto and Osuna the Mets get low minors high upside guys that you never really have enough of. I think this is a solid trade that helps both the Jays and the Mets.

Kevin Plawecki to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Scott Van Slyke

This is another trade that makes sense for both sides. The Dodgers don't really have their catcher for the future, so Plawecki us a perfect fit as a :young cost controllable catcher who projects to start. Van Slyke is an absolutely perfect fit for the Mets. Like Plawecki, he's also under long term control which bodes well given all the lefty outfielders we have in the system. While his performance against righties is most likely BABIP driven, the guy can flat out crush lefties with a career 151 wRC+ with great peripherals. Furthermore, he's also a good defender so he can step into the outfield if necessary as well. Either way, Lucas Duda's career 138 wRC+ against righties combined with Van Slyke has to offer is a combination that could give the Mets very very good production at first base. Plawecki may seem like a steep price to pay, but he's still a prospect and it's very likely that in the end his net production is the same as Van Slyke's.

Dillon Gee to the Tampa Bay Rays for Matt Joyce:

The Rays have a decent outfield, but they could use some pitching given the only constants for their rotation are Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Alex Cobb, and Chris Archer. Matt Moore is likely out till midseason, and they don't have much in the way of effective starting pitching beyond that unless you consider Jeremy Hellickson, Nate Karns, and Alex Colome as effective starters. In Gee the Rays get a back end of the rotation starter basically for free given that he and Joyce make the same amount. Furthermore, he is under contract for two years while Joyce is under contract for just one which should mitigate the slight production difference between the two. The Rays don't have much use for Joyce as they have basically a better version of him in David DeJesus, to go along with Desmond Jennings and Will Myers. Joyce is an ideal fit for the Mets. He can be the long side of a corner outfield platoon as he's a proven 120 wRC+ guy against righties at the cheap cost of 5 million. Even though the decline in power in 2014 was concerning, he still hit righties at an excellent clip, walked a lot, and should be good to do so for one more year. If he still hit for a .200 ISO, you'd be paying a lot more. He's an ideal bridge to Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto.

Bartolo Colon to the Boston Red Sox for Shane Victorino:

A few others have suggested this trade, and with good reason. The Red Sox really need pitchers given that they basically have 1 proven mlb starter for next year unless you count Joe Kelly. Colon makes perfect sense for them in that way. Coming off a down year, Dicktorino has no place on the Sox given their surplus of outfielders. How could I trade for Dicktornio? Well it was tough, but it's only for one year and he does help the Mets as he has a career 133 wRC+ against lefties, and contributes on the field and in the bases. All in all, we basically pay Victorino 2 million for his services as he is set to make 13 million and Colon is set to make 11. I feel obliged to post this, but hopefully this doesn't happen too often next year.

11bhs7c.0.gif

So that concludes the trades. I think these trades will really help the Mets next year as they essentially completed a corner outfield platoon as well as a first base platoon with less than 10 million dollars spend. That's huge. Furthermore, the trade with the Blue Jays gives us 2015 contributors as well as high upside low minors lottery tickets. So now we move on to the last part which is free agent signings. What are the needs we have left? Well obviously we still need a shortstop, but we also need some starting pitching as Thor won't be in the rotation to begin the season and counting on Montero and Sanchez to hit the ground running probably isn't wise either.

Step 3: Free Agents

Sign Jed Lowrie to a 2 year deal worth 20 million with a 11 million dollar team option for the third year.

I think Lowrie is a great fit for us at short. He should be fairly cheap as he's coming off a down year, but even in that down year, Lowrie still posted 1.9 WAR which suggests that he's a pretty safe bet to be worth his contract. It's a fair question whether his power rebounds, but getting out of O.Co can't hurt, and his BABIP was also lower than career average in 2014. Given his nearly career best LD% and K/BB numbers last year, I think it's fair to say that next year he'll be more around his career 103 wRC+ which is pretty good for a shortstop. If his power rebounds, we could see the 110+ that he posted from 2012-2013. Lowrie has a career 2.65 WAR over 600 PA and he also averaged 3.43 WAR/600 PA from 2012-2013 so that should give you an idea of the upside. He's not a spectacular defender, but he gets the job done with a career -.3 UZR/150. All in all, Lowrie is a pretty safe bet to post 2 WAR next year with an upside of over 3, so he's a perfect fit for the Mets at shortstop given that he won't cost all that much. Another thing I like about Lowrie is that he's very versatile, having the ability to play both second and third. The only option I could think of who would realistically be better than Lowrie was Alexei Ramirez and getting him would cost some talent.

Sign Gavin Floyd to a one year deal worth 5 million.

Injuries have hurt Floyd the last few years, but he should be ready to go for Spring Training. He showed no ill effects after Tommy John surgery, but had to get a different surgery due to a broken bone in his elbow. Since it's a bone, it hopefully should heal, so Floyd is a great risk/reward guy. Floyd offers some great upside as he averaged 3.3 WAR a year from 2008-2012. If he can rediscover that form, we could have an above average starter for next year which further bolsters what should be one of the better rotations in the league. And if he does that, he'll cash in next year in free agency while receiving up to 8 million this year. Worst comes to worst, he's toast and we have to go into the year with some combination of Montero/Sanchez/Thor in the last two spots. That's not the worst thing to have.

So we hopefully have Harvey/Wheeler/deGrom/Floyd lined up in the rotation now for the beginning of the year. The last spot will probably be a competition between Sanchez and Montero as the Mets seem hell bent on holding back Thor. However, there's no harm in signing another risk reward pitcher to provide some competition for the young guys.

Sign Chad Billingsley to a one year deal worth 1 million.

Billingsely underwent Tommy John and then tore his flexor tendon while rehabbing which needed surgery, so a major league deal should probably be enough to get him given that he hasn't pitched since early 2013. It's a question whether he has anything left, even more so than Floyd, but he should be ready for Spring Training. The payoff here could be big as well as Billingsley is a 2-3 WAR pitcher when healthy.

So that takes care of the rotation. Harvey/Wheeler/deGrom/Floyd and Billingsley/Montero/Sanchez with Syndergaard and Matz waiting in the wings as well as Mazzoni and Verrett as lesser options is excellent pitching depth even if only one of Billingsley or Floyd work out. Now, we have to turn our attention to moves that can provide some additional depth for the bullpen and bench.

Sign Geovany Soto to a 2 year deal worth 4 million.

Soto had a down 2014 as he battled injuries and even got arrested for weed possession, but he'd be a pretty good fit for the backup catcher as a guy who has a ton of mlb experience and a fair bit of success as well. He could probably step in and start as well in case d'arnaud goes down. I like Recker as much as the next guy but backup catcher was a big weakness for us last year, and Soto solves that problem. He's a good hitter for a catcher, is a good framer as well(in 2011, he was 14.6 runs above average, 4.6 in 2012 in less playing time, 1.4 in 2013 in an even smaller sample), and is an okay traditional defender. That's all you can ask for in a backup catcher.

Sign Luke Hochevar to a one year deal worth 2 million

Hochevar's story is interesting as he was the number 1 pick in a draft where Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and Max Scherzer went within the first 11 picks. He was a bust for years as a starter, but after being converted to relief in 2013, he gained almost 3 mph on his fastball and was dominant. However, he underwent Tommy John during Spring Training this year. Hochevar is another guy who can be had for cheap on a pillow contract due to his injury and lack of track record, but he has the potential to be a useful reliever especially with the high rate of recovery on Tommy John these days.

Well that concludes the move making part, so let's now look at the team we have assembled. I'll include some mostly random WAR range projections of best/worse case scenarios that I think would be reasonable.

Starters:

Position Player Salary Projected WAR
C Travis d'Arnaud 500K 2.5-4
1B Lucas Duda/Scott Van Slyke 4.8M 3-4.5
2B Wilmer Flores(with Matt Reynolds and Dilson Herrera as backup) 500K 1-2.5
SS Jed Lowrie 10M 2-3
3B David Wright 20M 2.5-5
LF Curtis Granderson 16M 1.5-2.5
CF Juan Lagares 500K 3-4.5
RF Matt Joyce/Shane Victorino 18M 2-4
SP1 Matt Harvey 500K 2.5-5
SP2 Jacob deGrom 500K 2-4
SP3 Zack Wheeler 500K 2-3.5
SP4 Gavin Floyd 5M 1-3
SP5 Chad Billingsley/Aaron Sanchez/Rafael Montero 1M 1-2

Bench+Bullpen:

Position Player Salary Projected WAR
SS/2B Ruben Tejada 1.7M .5
OF Matt den Dekker 500K .5
C Geovany Soto 2M .5
RP Jenrry Mejia 3.1M(thanks Omar+Jerry) .5
RP Jeurys Familia 500K .7
RP Aaron Loup 500K .7
RP Josh Edgin 500K .5
RP Carlos Torres 500K .3
RP Vic Black/Bobby Parnell 3.7M 0(with more upside)
RP Luke Hochevar/Dana Eveland/Buddy Carlyle 4M 0(with more upside)

So this is your 2015 New York Mets. The total payroll comes out to 95.2 million. I think this is a pretty awesome team that could make the playoffs barring disaster. One thing which I really focused on this year was depth and flexibility. Indeed, now we have 8 starters who could step in if injury or poor performance happens in the rotation(it will). Furthermore, every single one of those 8 guys has at least a 2-3 WAR upside, something that couldn't be said with Colon and Gee. The bullpen has tremendous depth as all 7 guys I listed could be quality relievers. Furthermore, there will be even more bullpen arms down in AAA with guys like Mazzoni, Carlyle, Eveland, Goeddel, and even Sanchez if he still struggles with command as a starter.

Looking over to the offense, I see 1B as a place where we could get absolutely monster offensive production with that platoon. Also, the RF platoon should be a major upgrade over last year. And again, the depth and flexibility we have with the offense is awesome. On most nights, the bench should consist of Van Slyke, who can play first and outfield, Tejada, who can play second and short, den Dekker, who can play anywhere in the outfield, and Victorino, who can play anywhere in the outfield. Furthermore, you have Flores and Lowrie, who can both play second, short, and third. Also, we finally have a competent backup catcher in Soto. Second base could potentially be a weak spot, but again the depth is great given we have Herrera and Reynolds chillin in Vegas. Furthermore, Tejada could play short and Lowrie could play second in a pinch. Also, we now have 5 capable outfielders, so if worst comes to worst, Victorino and den Dekker could easily step into starting roles anywhere in the outfield.This depth also gives us excellent flexibility in late innings for maneuvers, although with Terry I don't trust he'll do them.

Like I said, the best part of this team is the depth. Even if guys go down and get hurt, we will most likely have a guy ready to step in who can play the position at a good level. No more Q, or EY and whatnot.

So, let's #adduptheWAR's. Obviously this is a very crude estimate, but if everything goes according to plan, this team will total 51.7 WAR(and maybe more) which equates to basically 99-100 wins.

fuck_yeah_motherfucker-806418.0.jpg

Okay, that probably won't happen, but even if things go pretty wrong and everyone hits the low end of my WAR projections, the team still totals 34.7 WAR which is equal to about 82-83 wins. Even if you want to dock a few more wins if you think I was too optimistic( I don't think I was, given the tremendous depth of this team, if someone goes down, we will have a capable replacement), we're still around this year's win total, which is an absolute floor. Not bad at all. If things go "according to plan", you'll probably see something in the middle and around a 90 win team which is the goal.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process.