FanPost

AAOP: 90 WINZZZZzz Edition

The term "90 wins" was thrown around a lot last season when talking about the New York Mets. Unfortunately, this was not in reference to the team's success, but in jest to General Manager Sandy Alderson's lofty preseason goal for the team. Ultimately and expectedly, the Mets failed to reach this goal, finishing 79-83. However, those 79 wins are the closest the team has come to a .500 record since 2008, when they had 89 wins. There was a lot to be happy about with the 2014 Mets season, such as the success of young players like Travis d'Arnaud, Juan Lagares, Zack Wheeler, and the breakouts of Jacob deGrom and Lucas Duda. With the progression of these young players and the impending return of Matt Harvey, there is a lot of excitement for the Mets going into the 2015 season. While Alderson's goal of 90 wins might have seemed misguided for 2014, the 2015 Mets have an fighting chance of reaching the 90-win mark and making the playoffs for the first time since 2006. After all, they only need to win 11 more games than they did this past season, an improvement that could almost entirely be met simply by the return of Matt Harvey and David Wright returning to form. Even if the Mets fall just short of 90, the Royals and Giants, the two teams competing for this year's World Series, only had 89 and 88 wins respectively. With a few good moves, the playoffs are in reach for the 2015 New York Mets; here's my plan to try to get them there:

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FIRST THINGS FIRST

Given the organization's tight budget constraints, the Mets will have to be fiscally prudent with their moves this offseason. Between David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon, and Jon Niese, the Mets have $54 million committed to their 2015 payroll, which only leaves about $40 million to fill the remaining 21 spots of the roster. By renewing the contracts of Travis d'Arnaud, Juan Lagares, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, Josh Edgin, Carlos Torres, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Wilmer Flores for $500K each, the Mets add 10 players to the roster for $5 million. I then offer arbitration to Bobby Parnell, Daniel Murphy, Dillon Gee, Ruben Tejada, Jenrry Mejia, Lucas Duda and Buddy Carlyle, leaving Eric Young Jr. and Dana Eveland non-tendered. Young is non-tendered because quite frankly, he isn't good for anything other than his speed, which isn't enough to justify giving him over $2M and a roster spot. Eveland actually had a pretty decent year for the Mets, but I don't see him making the roster barring injury, so he is non-tendered although I would be willing to bring him back on a minor league deal. These seven players will add around $27 million to the Mets' payroll, leaving the Mets with less than $10 million to spend to finish their roster.

THE PRIORITIES

  1. A starting right fielder
  2. A starting shortstop
  3. A right-handed platoon partner for Lucas Duda at first base
  4. Grission Depth?

The Mets actually have very few holes to fill. A right fielder (with Granderson moving to left so his noodle arm isn't as much of a liability) and a shortstop who isn't Ruben Tejada are the only glaring holes. Besides that, a platoon-mate for Duda is a good idea; Duda only hit .180/.264/.252 versus left-handed pitchers last season compared to .273/.372/.543 against righties. Other than that, the only moves left to make would be to add some pitching and bench depth.

THE PLAN

1. Trade Bartolo Colon to the Diamondbacks for Cliff Pennington and Cody Ross Bartolo Colon provided a lot to the Mets in 2014. At the age of 41, Colon had a solid season, posting a 4.09 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and 2.1 fWAR in over 200 innings of work. Beyond his production on the pitching mound, Big Bart provided some great moments such as these:
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And although Bart was solid, dependable, and enjoyable, his $11M salary is not the most efficient allocation of the Mets' scarce resources, especially given the return of Matt Harvey and all of the promising young pitchers the Mets have in the wings.
This trade makes a lot of sense for Arizona; they need an innings eater (*insert Bartolo fat/eating joke here*) and want to get rid of Cody Ross and the $8.5M they owe him for next season. The Diamondbacks have three outfielders in AJ Pollock, David Peralta, and Mark Trumbo who they would rather play than Ross. Ross is coming off a down year, but he has a career .294/.360/.667 split and a 141 wRC+ against lefties. For comparison, Jose Bautista is a career .258/.367/.492 hitter. Ross would make a great platoon partner for Lucas Duda and can play some outfield as well. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have no real need for Cliff "Not Chad" Pennington as they have a plethora of young middle infielders ready to play. Pennington hit .254/.340/.350 last season, which is similar to Ruben Tejada with more contact and more power. More importantly, Pennington is a superb fielder at both middle infield positions, which was the main reason he produced a 1.5 fWAR last season in only 201 PAs. This trade also works out well financially for both teams; Ross' $8.5M and Pennington's $3.3M contracts combine to almost match Colon's $11M salary perfectly.

2. Acquire Yasiel Puig from the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard, Kevin Plawecki, Jonathan Niese, Gabriel Ynoa, and Gavin Cecchini

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Now I know what you're thinking: how could I trade for a Dodgers' outfielder not named Scott Van Slyke? Just watch me!

But seriously, this trade makes more sense for the Dodgers than you think. Following the Dodgers' loss in the NLDS, in which Puig was benched, rumors began to circulate that Puig doesn't get along with manager Don Mattingly and that Puig might be traded. Keith Law thinks it's a good idea. And for the right return, trading Puig does make sense for the Dodgers. Puig is only the fourth highest paid outfielder on the Dodgers, behind Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, and Matt Kemp, whose exorbitant contracts run through 2018, 2017, and 2019, respectively. These guys are untradable thanks to their contracts. The Dodgers also have Joc Pederson and Scott Van Slyke looking like solid contributors in the outfield. They have a lot of money tied up in their outfield that isn't going anywhere, and while Puig is locked up to a relatively cheap deal through 2018, he has a clause in his contract that lets him opt-in to arbitration after he earns his third year of MLB service time, and he almost certainly will opt-in and make much more money. It doesn't make sense for the Dodgers to have a fourth expensive outfielder, especially when they have so much depth at the position to soften the loss of Puig. But the Dodgers are not in a position of weakness; they don't have to trade Puig. They would only trade Puig if they got an absolute haul in return, which is why the Mets have to give up so much to get him.

In exchange for Puig, the Dodgers get one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, a great catching prospect, a solid MLB starter signed to a team-friendly deal and their choice of a lesser pitching prospect and shortstop prospect (it doesn't have to be Ynoa/Cecchini, just something along those lines). You might be thinking that this is too much to give up for Puig, and in a way you're right, but that's the price of acquiring a superstar. In fact, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has him listed as the 5th most valuable player in baseball. While the Mets are giving up a significant chunk of their farm system in this deal, it's worth it and they'd still have plenty of other good prospects like Rafael Montero, Steven Matz, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto. Yasiel Puig has hit .305/.386/.502 with a 152 wRC+ in his 252-game career. His wRC+ ranks as the 5th best among all MLB hitters since he was called up. I will gladly give up unproven talent (see: TINSTAAPP) for a proven elite MLB player like Puig. And he's under team control through 2018 and only going to be 24 next season! It's just an added bonus that he happens to be one of the funnest players in baseball. Just imagine, bat flips like these in a Mets uniform:

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3. Sign Colby Lewis to a 1-year, $4M deal with a vesting option at 180 innings

With Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese gone via trade, there is now an open spot in the Mets rotation after Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, and Gee. While the spot could simply just be filled by Rafael Montero, I'd rather not have to bank on him being ready to be a quality MLB starter right away. He's struggled somewhat so far in the MLB and it would be safer to start the season off with him in AAA as insurance in case someone gets hurt or sucks. With limited money left to spend and no real need to invest long-term in a pitcher, I go after Colby Lewis. While Lewis had a rough 2014 in which he posted a 5.18 ERA, his peripherals were pretty decent and were trending upwards in the second half. Lewis also seemed to suffer from a bit of bad luck, as his BABIP against was .339, much higher than his career .303 mark. Most importantly, he threw 170 innings in 29 starts. Eating innings will be key in a rotation that has so many young guys, one of whom is returning from Tommy John surgery. Expect Lewis to post much better stats this year, both from better luck and moving to the National League. I'll even be willing to forget about that weird incident where he yelled at Colby Rasmus for bunting for a hit.

4. Sign David Ross to a 1-year, $2M deal

I've got a news flash for the Mets: catchers with a .264 career OBP and 32.2% strikeout rate are not the new market inefficiency. Sure, Recker has been "clutch," but that's not exactly a repeatable skill. If Travis d'Arnaud were to go down with an injury, I certainly wouldn't want Anthony Recker to start for an extended period of time. Recker is cheap and has options though, so he could easily be stashed in AAA in case of emergency. David Ross isn't exactly an offensive dynamo, especially not these past two seasons, but he provides value in other ways. Ross is a great defensive catcher and is second to only Yadier Molina in throwing runners out. Additionally, Ross is one of the best in the game at pitch framing, which is an underrated skill that can add a ton of value. At 38, Ross' best days are behind him, but he should certainly be able to handle part-time duty and serve as a great mentor for d'Arnaud. Also, this move gives the Mets two players with the last name Ross and that's pretty cool.

5. Make some depth signings

There's nothing much to this. Just make a few cheap, minor league signings that will serve as emergency depth in case of injuries/ineffectiveness. Maybe one pans out like Marlon Byrd or R.A. Dickey. Probably not though. Anyway, look for some guys like Paul Maholm (although he's rehabbing a torn ACL), Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Corey Hart, Nyjer Morgan (!), Mike Carp, et cetera here. A few bullpen arms will be signed but no one major is needed, the bullpen was surprisingly really good last year and isn't losing anyone.

THE SQUAD

Lineup vs. RHP

# Player Position Salary
1 Juan Lagares CF $500K
2 Daniel Murphy 2B $8.3M
3 David Wright 3B $20M
4 Yasiel Puig RF $6.2M
5 Lucas Duda 1B $4.3M
6 Travis d'Arnaud C $500K
7 Curtis Granderson LF $16M
8 [Pitcher] P -
9 Cliff Pennington SS $3.3M

Lineup vs. LHP

# Player Position Salary
1 Juan Lagares CF $500K
2 Daniel Murphy 2B $8.3M
3 David Wright 3B $20M
4 Yasiel Puig RF $6.2M
5 Cody Ross 1B $8.5M
6 Curtis Granderson LF $16M
7 Travis d'Arnaud C $500K
8 [Pitcher] P -
9 Cliff Pennington SS $3.3M

Bench

# Player Position Salary
BE David Ross C $2M
BE Cody Ross 1B/OF $8.5M
BE Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF $500K
BE Ruben Tejada SS/2B $1.7M
BE Wilmer Flores IF $500K

Starting Rotation

# Player Position Salary
1 Matt Harvey RHP $500K
2 Jacob deGrom RHP $500K
3 Zack Wheeler RHP $500K
4 Dillon Gee RHP $5.1M
5 Colby Lewis RHP $4M

Bullpen

# Player Position Salary
CL Jenrry Mejia RHP $3.1M
SU Jeurys Familia RHP $500K
MR Bobby Parnell RHP $3.7M
MR Vic Black RHP $500K
LOOGY Josh Edgin LHP $500K
MR Buddy Carlyle RHP $1.0M
LR Carlos Torres RHP $500K

This is a pretty solid group all around. At catcher, Travis d'Arnaud looks to have finally figured it out after hitting .269/.315/.481 since returning from the minor leagues last year, and now he finally has a legitimate backup behind him in David Ross. At first base, Lucas Duda looks to build off his impressive 2014 in which hit 30 home runs and posted a 136 wRC+. However, Duda can't really hit lefties well, which is why Cody Ross is brought in for a platoon. With Duda's career 138 wRC+ against righties and Ross' 141 against righties, the Mets should get some serious offensive production out of the first base position. In the middle infield, Daniel Murphy and Cliff Pennington will get most of the time at second base and shortstop respectively, with Ruben Tejada and Wilmer Flores getting some time as their backups. Murphy is an above average hitter and a slightly below average defender and NotChad is an above average defender and a slightly below average hitter, giving the Mets a pretty solid middle infield duo. While many fans might want to non-tender Tejada, it doesn't really make sense given his low salary and usefulness off the bench. Tejada is a good defender at short and second and his propensity for drawing walks makes him not completely useless at the plate. On the other hand, Flores will serve as the team's utility man, as he is capable of playing eveyr position in the infield. Flores surprisingly posted some good defensive metrics at shortstop and second last year; if he can provide some validation to those numbers he might find himself some more playing time. At third, of course, is David Wright, who's coming off a down year where he struggled with a shoulder injury and was considerably below his usual level of awesomeness. Here's hoping that 2014 was just a fluke and the captain (the only one in the MLB! #RE2PECT) will return to his usual excellence in 2015 and beyond. Should Wright get hurt again (which would make me super sad), the Mets have Murphy and Flores to fill in at third. Wright bouncing back to form would be a huge boost for the Mets as he could produce almost half of those 11 missing wins all by himself. In the outfield, the Mets have fielding deity Juan Lagares in center, Yasiel Puig in right, and Curtis Granderson is moved to left. Lagares' defense makes him worth around 4 wins all by itself, and he seems to have improved his offense to be around average, which is great for him. Puig is the type of elite hitter the Mets haven't had in a long time, although he is not without his shortcomings. Puig's aggressive baserunning sometimes leads to extra bases, but more often it leads to TOOTBLANs (although his baserunning almost broke even this season). He's not a great defender in right, but his cannon arm makes him a pretty decent one. Granderson, on the other hand takes his weak noodle arm to left field, where it will be less of an issue. The Grandyman had a somewhat disappointing first year in a Mets uniform, but he finished with a decent 108 wRC+ and there's reason to believe he'll do better next season. Granderson had an abysmal April and an even worse August, but otherwise had some really good offensive stretches. The starting pitching should be excellent, with the return of Matt Harvey, a full season of Jacob deGrom, continued improvement from Zack Wheeler, and Dillon Gee's usual solidness. Colby Lewis should be a decent 5th starter, but if not Rafael Montero will be waiting in AAA along with some other depth options. Last year's bullpen was very solid, and everyone will be returning in addition to Bobby Parnell returning from injury. With Parnell, who established himself as a Proven CloserTM in 2013, the Mets have yet another late-inning shutdown reliever to go with Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, and Vic Black.

So there you have it, your 2015 New York Mets! The final payroll for this team is a little under $93 million, which is within the budget. This team looks to be considerably better than the 2014 Mets and should make the 90-win dream a reality.

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Yasiel Puig and teammate Jenrry Mejia celebrate the Mets making the playoffs for the first time since 2006

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