FanPost

AAOP: Platoon!

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Note: I meant to add more photos and other things to make this look snazzy, but I just started grad school and have had approximately no time to work on my AAOP. So this will have to suffice.

Table of Contents/Summary

  1. Spoiler alert: the final product!
  2. Sign some people. Trade some people.
  3. Set a lineup with SO MANY PLATOONZ!!
  4. Look at the wRC+ data (and other poorly formatted tables).
  5. Poll about pizza?!?! (Yes.)

The Lineup

vs. R
Murphy
Granderson
Wright
Duda
Cuddyer
Flores
d'Arnaud
Lagares

vs. L
Lagares
Mayberry
Wright
Cuddyer
Ross
Granderson
Murphy
Herrera

Starting Rotation
Harvey
Wheeler
deGrom
Colon
Syndergaard

Bullpen
Black
Edgin
Eveland
Familia
Mejia
Montero
Parnell

Other Bench
Campbell
Nieuwenhuis
(den Dekker at AAA)

Transactions

Sign: OF/1B Michael Cuddyer for $25M/2 years

How much do you think a 35-year-old outfielder coming off a very good season, albeit one limited by injury and played mostly in Colorado, will get as a free agent? My guess is he could be had on a two-year, $25M deal. I'd push the dollar amount up, but not the years, lest the Mets get committed to having two old and overpaid outfielders locked up for the 2017 season. Even if Cuddyer gets and rejects a qualifying offer from the Rockies, the Mets need to be in on him. He's still a very good hitter who kills left-handed pitching and performs above-average against right-handers. For the Mets, that's good and crucial enough to seek out at all costs. Cuddyer is safer than, say, Yasmani Tomas, and the fact that he can play the OF most of the time, but also relieve Duda at 1B as needed, makes this an easy call. (Yes yes, I know about BABIP--just look at those career numbers and try to tell me that he wouldn't be a serious enough offensive upgrade over Duda vs. lefties to merit such a contract.)

Sign: C David Ross for $1M/1 year

So now you're asking, "hey wait, why are you signing all these old guys?'" In spite of Ross's age, he still hits well against lefties and can field his position. I figure he'd make a good mentor for Travis, while also being able to fill in for him as needed.

Trade: LHP Jon Niese to TOR for OF John Mayberry, LHP Chase De Jong, and 3B Mitch Nay.

The Blue Jays starting pitching ranked among the worst against left-handed hitters. Niese's FIP this year vs. lefties was 2.96. We know how much the Mets and the Jays love to trade, so this should be a no-brainer. Niese is a good pitcher on a team-friendly contract, so he should be able to net Mayberry (a key part of the outfield arrangement--see below) and a two pretty good prospects, such as A-level players Mitch Nay and Chase De Jong. This may be underselling Niese, but I think it is a fair return.
(Note: in an ideal world, Niese would be packaged and sent to Colorado for catcher Michael McKenry and others, but I just couldn't see the Rockies trading away McKenry after his successful season, nor could I see him being very happy about playing part-time after the year he's had.) (Other note: there is the possibility of Mayberry being non-tendered. This would be great and allow the Mets to send Niese elsewhere, but I choose to exist in a world where the Blue Jays offer him a contract for 2015.)

Trade: RHP Dillon Gee to TEX for OF Lewis Brinson

The Mets don't really have much of a need for Gee, a fine pitcher who probably won't ever be anything more than a #4/5 starter. Gee is much better against righties than lefties, so let's send him to the Rangers, a team desperately in need of right-handed pitching. Brinson, an outfielder in the Rangers' system, was rated a C+ by John Sickels before the season. He had a good year at A-level, but struggled in High-A. He seems like a fair return for a pitcher such as Gee.

Non-Tender: C Anthony Recker, IF Ruben Tejada, OF Eric Young Jr.

Bye!

Position-by-Position

Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud / David Ross

I firmly believe that Travis d'Arnaud is a special player. He has a sweet swing, a tough attitude, and has played like an all-star since his stint in Las Vegas. That said, we all know how fragile he is. Just in case you're not up to date with these newfangled "numbers," Travis has only played 256 games over the past three years (around 85 games per year). To help him out, I'd sign free agent catcher David Ross (see above). d'Arnaud isn't terrible against lefties, but Ross is probably just as good or better.

First Base: Lucas Duda / Michael Cuddyer

One of this season's biggest revelations has been Lucas Duda, who's managed to rack up a 133 wRC+ and .357 wOBA while playing a full season at first base. Unfortunately, Duda just can't hit lefties. We knew this to be true a year ago when we all tried to pair him with Josh Satin (admit it, you had that in your AAOP), and it's still true now--Duda's wRC+ against righties this year was 157; against lefties, an atrocious 42. Signing Cuddyer, who murders lefties, would take the pressure off of Duda, since we know he just can't hit southpaws.

Second Base: Daniel Murphy

In an ideal world, I'd trade Murph and turn 2B over to the Flores/Herrera/Reynolds combo. Unfortunately, it's hard to ditch Murphy's proven production to save $6-7M in salary relief. That, my friends, is the mark of a truly cheap team, and I don't want to believe we've really reached that point yet! So my plan would be to keep Murph, put him at 2B (or 1B or 3B if Duda, Cuddyer, or Wright need a day off), hope that Herrera and Flores prove their worth, and then trade him at midseason. Unless, of course, he's the key cog in the Mets' playoff run, in which case I hope they keep him. I don't believe that Murphy will necessarily be a part of the next great Mets team; I'm just not willing to gamble on that quite yet.

Third Base: David Wright

Poor David--in the middle of his worst season in the bigs, Captain America had the misfortune of injuring his shoulder, playing through it, and then finding out that it was worse than initially thought. Granted, some of this may be his fault (I'm pretty sure none of us would have faulted him for taking it easy during another mediocre Mets campaign), but it doesn't change the fact that this is not a great place to be. Having said that, there's not much that can be done. Wright is the Mets' highest paid player and, barring injury, isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Don't get me wrong, that's not a bad thing, but the possibility of the Mets' franchise player repeating his horrific 2014 (wRC+ of 82 vs. righties) is enough to make even the most diehard Mets fan feel a twinge of fear.

Shortstop: Wilmer Flores / Dilson Herrera

This is where we have to believe in the future. Can Flores or Herrera play SS? Maybe! Can either of them hit righties? Probably! Can either of them hit lefties? Who knows! This team has to start trusting its prospects at a certain point, and I think that, for this pair, that point is now. Flores has hit pretty well against righties in his limited MLB experience, while Herrera showed enough promise to get some regular playing time. Neither of them are any good vs. lefties, so I figure why not run Herrera out there (being more likely to succeed) and hope for the best. On the whole, I am comfortable letting both of these guys mature over the course of the season and hope that one of them hits his way into our hearts and spreadsheets.

Left Field: Curtis Granderson / John Mayberry

You know what surprised me? Just how good John Mayberry is against lefties. This season, while his wRC+ against righties was just 66, he hit lefties to the tune of a 165 wRC+! He's not a household name, but given who he is I think he would be perfectly fine starting against lefties and making key pinch hit appearances as necessary. Granderson may not be the hitter he once was, but the Mets certainly won't be paying him $15M to sit on the bench. He shifts to left field to make room for Cuddyer in RF.

Center Field: Juan Lagares

Lagares may not be much of a hitter against righties, but we all know that that doesn't matter.

Right Field: Michael Cuddyer / Curtis Granderson

Cuddyer's not the best hitter against righties, but he'll make a nice addition to the Mets' lineup nonetheless. Granderson can still hit lefties pretty well and he needs to play somewhere, so...

Starting Rotation: Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Bartolo Colon, Noah Syndergaard

Realistically, nobody's going to want Colon. Niese is much more tradable, and this rotation leaves Gee as the odd man out, so after conducting the transactions described above you're left with this bunch. One thing you may notice: no lefties. That may seem odd, but it's not an accident! The Nationals and Braves are both significantly worse against right-handed pitchers, and it's about even for the Marlins. So I didn't feel the need to keep a lefty around just for fun. The rest of the rotation should be self-explanatory: Harvey will be back, deGrom will be ready to follow up his Rookie of the Year with an even better campaign, Wheeler will be great if he can learn to throw fewer pitchers, and it's time for Syndergaard to ascend to the majors, Frank Viola's statements to the contrary be damned. If everything breaks right (a big if), this could be a top-five rotation, so no need to tinker with it too much. I just wouldn't shed too much of the minor league depth

Bullpen: Vic Black, Josh Edgin, Dana Eveland, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Rafael Montero, Bobby Parnell

This is a good bullpen. I feel weird saying that, but it's true. There is nobody I hate, no obvious gaps--all is blissfully tranquil. Sure, the Mets should probably sign some minor league bullpen depth--with a Juan Oviedo here, and a Randy Wolf there, here a Juan, there a Wolf... you get the picture. Point is: the major league picture is relatively secure (assuming Bobby Parnell returns from surgery). I would not make anybody the closer because I do not hate the Mets. Mejia is great and all, but I feel like his high-wire act could benefit from some more rest, and maybe hernia surgery. There's no reason why Familia, Parnell, or any of the others shouldn't be able to close out the game depending on matchups, fatigue, etc...

A note on Rafael Montero: He's a great trade candidate. Problem is, there aren't too many people to trade for. I think Montero is more likely to burnish his trade potential with solid bullpen stats and some good spot starts in the majors, rather than being forced to rot in Vegas. And hey, if he turns out to be the prospect we all want him to be, maybe that's all the better for us!

Bench: David Ross, Eric Campbell, Kirk Nieuwenhuis

In addition to the names listed above, these three fellows will spend most of their time on the bench. (I know Ross was already written about, but he's certainly the backup catcher in this scenario.) Soup and Kirk are both decently good hitters; given their versatility (Campbell in the IF, Kirk in the OF) and good-but-not-great skillsets, they make ideal bench players in this platoon system. Kirk shouldn't ever see time against lefties, but Campbell can shift into the outfield if necessary. Dilson Herrera and John Mayberry will spend most of their time on the bench, supplanted by Wilmer Flores (and Duda, though it seems unfair to list him here) as needed.

The Stats (aka the part where I reveal my continued ignorance of tables)

The numbers to the right and left are wRC+, by career and for 2014. Note how many people with numbers above 100 are in the starting lineup part of the arrangement! Obvious this goes Catcher, 1B, 2B, etc...
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These are the pitching stats for 2014. The only note is that Matt Harvey's and Bobby Parnell's stats are for 2013. I have nothing much to say except that these numbers are very good.

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Payroll: $88.5 million. I am so sorry for how ugly this is, I will make it up to you somehow.

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