FanPost

AAOP: Crazy Town Banana Pants

This is it. This is the season where the rebuilding stops and the winning begins. It's been eight years since we have made the playoffs. Eight years is a long time. Eight years is too long. It's been six years since we've been over .500. Six years is also a long time. Six years is also too long. There is hope, however. The end of the tunnel is in reach. The horizon is in sight. The dawn is breaking. We have a strong crop of young arms, an ace coming back from the shelf, and a captain ready to see the postseason again. It won't be easy to get there, and it will be painful, but it will be worth it. We can't just slide into contention though. We have to break some eggs. Changes have to be made. Triggers have to be pulled. Platitudes have to be used.

The 2014 season saw the Mets offense struggle, but make slight improvements from the season before (9th in wRC+, 11th in wOBA in the NL) while the pitching was yet again middle of the road despite the promise it showed (t-10th in ERA, 8th in FIP). With David Wright having what one can only hope to be a singular down season due to temporary shoulder issues and Matt Harvey ready to step back on the field after making a full recovery from Tommy John surgery, the Mets can conceivably jump into contention in 2015. I aim to give them the cast of players needed not just to reach .500 for the first time in six years, not just to reach the playoffs for the first time in eight years, but to do some damage.

Long Term Solutions on Offense:

There are two notable areas on offense that need to be addressed; last season our LF combined for a cumulative .615 OPS (the NL average was .726) while our SS combined for a cumulative .629 OPS (the NL average was .689). The prime culprits in LF were Eric Young and his 77wRC+ over 316 PAs and Chris Young's 81 wRC+ over 287 PAs. Eric Young Jr. is non-tendered while Chris Young is already gone. At SS, Wilmer Flores' 88 wRC+ can be excused as growing pains with the hope that his bat continues to grow. The real mistake was giving Ruban Tejada another 419 PAs which were rewarded with a 89 wRC+. Tejada is tendered a contract which is valued at $1.7M via year-two arbitration (more on this later). Lucas Duda firmly proved he is a capable 1B (136 wRC+) and Juan Lagares showed continued development (101 wRC+). Flores looks to be progressing into an everyday player; his overall line is dragged down by his sub-par performance with sporadic PAs, but once he received consistent playing time, he started to hit (August: 78 wRC+, September/October: 129 wRC+). Curtis Granderson wasn't great, but he was decent (108 wRC+). Even David Wright in a down year was average (100 wRC+). In short, if these two positions are improved while also making some improvements around the margins, the offense should fare better. The challenge is to not just plug holes that will need to be re-addressed every year, but instead find stable solutions that can be counted on to be positive contributors annually.

Two-Step Solutions Step One:

In step one of a two-step trade, from Kansas City comes LHP Sean Manaea in exchange for IF Daniel Murphy. Losing Murphy is painful as he is a constantly positive contributor; he has put up a fWAR between 1.3 and 3.0 in each of the least three seasons. But this is one of the proverbial eggs that need to be cracked. It's not all roses for Murphy as he is starting to become relatively expensive (a $8.3M Arb. award) and we have players that look capable of matching a good chunk of his value; Flores looks to be a capable MI option and Dilson Herrera is on the cusp of being ready for the big leagues. Coming our way is Manaea, a 22 year-old, former 34th overall draft pick. The young lefty came back from a hip injury to post a promising season at A+ (10.80 K/9, 3.99 BB/9, 0.37 HR/9). He is a high-upside prospect who has a #2 ceiling. He was rated #66 in MLB's top-100 list and given a B/B- grade by John Sickels entering the 2014 season. In the trade the Royals give up the high-reward/high-risk power-lefty to help insure they return to the postseason. The steady 2 fWAR Murphy allows the Royals to move on from the older and more injury prone Omar Infante and use him to possibly address other areas of need. If the talent going KC's way seems a bit light, add LHP Jack Leathersich.

Pulling off the Band-Aid:

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno2_100.0.jpgStep two in the aforementioned two-step trade is a blockbuster: 3B/OF Kris Bryant and 3B Christian Villanueva are acquired from Chicago in exchange for RHP Jacob deGrom, LHP Sean Manaea (via KC), C Kevin Plawecki, and LHP Jon Niese. This is a move that I'm sure will illicit strong opinions on either side. Bryant is a top-5 prospect in all of baseball who gets A-grades from everyone. He hit 43 HRs over two levels in the minors this past season, can hit for average, isn't a butcher with the glove, and has a strong arm. He's not perfect, but he is a stud. So is deGrom. The guy with the hair blew past most observers ceilings and put up a Rookie of the Year worthy performance (9.24 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, 2.69 ERA, 2.79 FIP). He has 5 quality pitches. He also adds value with the bat (an OPS .183 above the NL average for pitchers). He has 6 years of team control after already showing he can perform very well at the major league level. He is also a stud.

Hitting prospects are generally more valuable than pitching prospects, but the additional parts of this deal alleviate that issue. The Cubs do this trade because they have an overflow of top-notch positional prospects (Baez and Russell have the positional edge while Soler also brings a high-upside power bat to their prospect ranks) and they have a organizational weakness at pitching. They get a guy in deGrom they can pair with a big FA signing (Scherzer, Sheilds, Masterson) while also addressing their weakness at catcher with the B-rated Plawecki who can step in almost immediately. They also get the high-upside, B-rated Manaea to stash away in A-ball and a league-average, veteran lefty on a value contract in Niese to help the back end of their rotation. The Mets do this trade because we have an organizational weakness in MLB-ready bats and an organizational strength in young arms. We don't have a prospect anywhere close to that of Byrant's level, but we have at least one more arm capable of matching deGrom. Conceivably Zack Wheeler or Noah Syndergaard could be used instead, but I favor moving deGrom here due to the fact that he's seen arm issues in the past (TJ in 2011, shoulder tendinitis in 2014) while the other two have not. These types of trades don't happen often, but I think this will be beneficial to both teams in both the short and long term. Bryant will start the year in Las Vegas for a few weeks to transition to RF (Granderson slides over to LF) and to pass the service clock window.

Villanueva is a potential buy-low candidate. The 23 year old had a very disappointing 2014 season putting up only a 65 wRC+ at AAA. However, his development has been oddly handled by the Cubs. Villanueva was a fairly highly thought of prospect (handed B- ratings in 2012 and 2013 by Sickels). In 2012 in A+ ball, he put up a 125 wRC+. In 2013 he hit to the tune of a 126 wRC+ in AA as a 22 year-old (average AA age is a little older than 23). Villanueva started the 2014 season slowly, hitting only a 92 wRC+ in 259 AA PAs, yet the Cubs pushed him through to AAA anyway. There he finished the season with just a 65 wRC+ in 248 PAs. As a player Villanueva bring good gap-to-gap power and an above average glove. He will take his strike outs, but he's not a hack artist. He heads to Binghamton to re-find his game and to help replenish the farm system.

Two-Step Solutions Part Two:

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno7_100.0.jpgIn a second two-part trade, we receive OF Will Venable and a 2015 Competitive Balance round pick from San Diego in exchange for OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, RHP Matthew Bowman, and 1B Jayce Boyd. Nieuwenhuis is out of minor league options, but looks to find a home on the west coast after a productive 2014 (130 wRC+ in 130 PAs). Bowman and Boyd are fringe C-range prospects who fit the Padres apparent low-ceiling/high floor mantra. Their ceilings are a back-end starter and below-average 1B respectively. They don't have much of a future with us so the cost to us is low. The Padres save some ever-important money and get some prospects further along in their development in the process. Coming our way is 31 year old Venable. After two seasons of >2 fWAR production, 2014 saw him take a dip putting up only 0.9 fWAR. With one more year of control at $4.25M, it would be wise for a team with an internal budget even tighter than ours to move him. Their loss is our potential gain. Just a season ago Venable was able to accrue 2.9 fWAR on the back of strong base-running, deceptively solid hitting, and near scratch defense. His major flaw in 2014 was a .283 BABIP (.310 career career mark) and not hitting a career high vLHP (career: 96 wRC+, 2013: 135 wRC+). He will make a welcome addition to the bench as a better version of Eric Young Jr. The 2015 Competitive Balance pick is the 5th pick in round A. Round A takes place after round 1 of the draft. The league has seen these picks move at a hard-to-track-valuation. They have been included in blockbuster type deals (the Lester/Cespedes trade) and for 27 year-old, middling relievers (Bryan Morris, yeah the Bryan Morris). For a team like the Padres who don't go after the high-priced, high-ceiling draftees, they probably wouldn't value this pick very highly.

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno9_100.0.jpgThe second step of the second two-part trade, UTL Ben Zobrist comes via trade from Tampa Bay in exchange for 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Rafael Montero, SS German Amed Rosario, and the 2015 Competitive Balance round pick (via SD). Believe it or not, after 6 years of contention, it's probably time for the Rays to start rebuilding again. With new GM Matthew Silverman taking the helm, expect more of the same shrewd cost-aware ideology. Zobrist is 33 and has one more season on his contract; seems like a likely casualty. Going the Rays way are three B-range rated prospects, two of which have been on the back half of top-100 lists. Smith, who's most common comp is James Loney who is currently employed by Tampa, seems to fit their organizational mold to a T (catch the ball, hit well, and power potential). Montero had a bit of a rough transition to the majors in 2014 (4.67 BB/9, 1.62 HR/9), but he still showed promise (8.53 K/9) and his AAA numbers were solid (9 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9). He is the type of pitcher that the Rays' system always seems to be full of, but they always seem to acquire anyway (ie strike out more than 8/9 and keep walks below 3/9). Rosario represents another type of prospect the Rays always seem to be interested in. The super-tooled 18 year old is dripping with talent. The Rays love their international bonus babies and Rosario would add a possible SS of the future that their prospect pool is lacking. The Competitive Balance round pick essentially allows the Rays to receive the value of the 3 prospects plus what they would have received had Zobrist left as a FA. With the way the Rays were making a game plan of gathering FA-comp picks before the new system was implemented, they would find this pick attractive.

Coming the Mets way in the deal is the ageless and always underrated Zobrist. A 5+ fWAR player for the last 4 seasons, the affectionately named "Zorilla" is coming off a 119 wRC+ season. He will man SS for the Mets (allowing Flores to slide over to 2B) and is due $7.5M on a club option that will of course be picked up. Contract extension talks would also commence immediately ($30M/3-years sounds nice but that's a different AAOP).

Round out the Bench:

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno8_100.0.jpgContinuing with the trade-storm, OF/1B Scott Van Slyke comes aboard from Los Angeles for RHP Bartolo Colon and MI Ruben Tejada. The late blooming and suddenly popular Van Slyke had a breakout year in 2014 producing a 160 wRC+. However, that was with a .394 BABIP so it would be wise for the Dodgers to sell high as one shouldn't expect that type of performance again. What can be counting on is some positional versatility, the ability to mash lefties (career 151 wRC+ vLHP), and scratch defense. Heading the Dodgers way is the league-average innings eater that they need for the back end of their rotation in the form of Colon and a potentially useful bench MI in Tejada. Van Slyke is pre-arb and is set to make about $600K. He will see LHP platoon PAs with Duda and Granderson at 1B and LF respectively.

C Anthony Recker, OF Matt den Dekker, Venable and Van Slyke are already in the fold. Matt Reynolds is called up to be the IF option off the bench. He had a strong 2014 camping (144 wRC+ at Binghamton and 124 wRC+ at Vegas) and could get as many as 350 PAs in a super-sub role. UTL Eric Campbell heads back to Las Vegas to play everyday. OF Cesar Puello is is out of option years but is snuck though waivers at the end of Spring Training (when the waiver wire is most packed) to play everyday in RF for Vegas like he should have been doing last season.

Maintain the Rotation:

First and foremost, RHP Matt Harvey is coming back from a year on the shelf after Tommy John surgery. He essentially takes deGrom's spot in a rotation that finished 13th in the MLB in ERA and 12th in FIP. Colon met expectations pitching a heavy load of innings (173 IP) and performed decently (4.09 ERA, 3.57 FIP) but will have to be replaced after being traded. Wheeler continued his progression reaching new highs in innings pitched (185.1) and K/9 (9.08) while reaching lows in BB/9 (3.84) and HR/9 (0.68). RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka filled in admirably as a 6th man despite an ugly 5.4 BB/9 by keeping HRs down (0.65 HR/9) and Ks up (8.42 K/9). He is brought back on an identical deal at $1.5M/1-year to fill a spot in the rotation until RHP Sydergaard can come up after the service clock deadline passes a few weeks into the season. RHP Dillon Gee continued his decline with ugly peripherals overall highlighted by a career low 6.16 K/9. He isn't an ideal choice, but as a #5, he's not terrible - and with prospects like RHP Cory Mazzoni and RHP Logan Verrett performing well in AAA, possibly temporary. That leaves an additional pitcher needed to complete to rotation.

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno4_100.0.jpgComing from the Rangers is RHP Colby Lewis on a 1-year, $5M contract with a $7M team option for 2016. Lewis came back last season to pitch 170.1 innings after a lost 2013 campaign that saw him recovering from elbow tendon and hip-resurfacing surgery. He didn't perform great in 2014 (5.18 ERA 4.46 FIP), but his peripherals were all around normal for him (7.03 K/9, 2.43 BB/9) even though his strikeouts dipped a bit. However, he makes for a good bounce-back candidate because his fastball velocity was right in line with his previous three years (~88/89 mph), he will be moving from the HR-happy Ballpark in Arlington, and his .339 BABIP was his highest in 4 seasons (previous high was .279). He will take on the IP we lost in the Colon trade.

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno1_100.0.jpgAdditionally, coming from Los Angeles, RHP Chad Billingsley is signed to a $1M, 1-year contract as a reclamation project. Billingsley missed the 2013 and 2014 seasons with Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon (also, elbow) surgery. Once a league-average or better pitcher, he will undoubtedly not have his $14M team option picked up by the Dodgers. The hope is that he can return to a pitcher capable of putting up ~150 IP, grater than 7 K/9, and lower than 4 B/9 essentially replacing what we lost in trading Niese. He won't be counted on to do that however, but is given the chance to win a spot in the rotation in Spring Training. He likely heads to Las Vegas as depth.

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno6_100.0.jpgFinally, to add some starting pitching depth to the organization, RHP Ross Ohlendorf is acquire via trade with the Nationals for IF Josh Satin. Ohlendorf missed much of 2014 with different injuries including a back strain, but looks to be healthy for 2015. Due $1.3M in year-4 arbitration, Washington has no need for him; instead of just non-tendering him, they get a 25th man for their bench in the form of the 29 year-old Satin. Ohlendorf goes to Las Vegas in case of emergency.

Punctuate the 'Pen:

After years of missteps and failures, the 2014 bullpen was a not a weakness of the team (8th in the MLB with 3.14 ERA). RHP Jenrry Mejia settled into a closer role nicely (9.59 K/9, 0.64 HR/9, 2.72 ERA) and even though the goal of starting is gone, looks to be a solid part of the team for years to come. Likewise, RHP Jeurys Familia also had a strong season out of the bullpen (8.5 K/9, 0.35 HR/9, 2.21 ERA) and looks to be a steady high-leverage option. RHP Carlos Torres ate up innings at a amazing rate (92 IP) while pitching well (8.8 K/9, 3.23 ERA). RHP Vic Black added to the new wave by also performing well (8.31 K/9, 0.52 HR/9, 2.60 ERA). RHP Bobby Parnell missed all of the 2014 season with Tommy John and neck surgeries. Likely to command $3.7M in his final year of arbitration, he is non-tendered and signed to a $5M, 2-year contract. With his injury-ralted uncertanty, I would think he'd take the 2-year commitment and more money guaranteed overall. Together with Mejia, Familia, and Black, Parnell completes a quartet of high-leverage options. LHP Josh Edgin had a bounce back season posting good number all around (9.22 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 1.32 ERA) and was typically tough against left handed hitters (.238 wOBA). RHP Buddy Carlyle and LHP Dana Eveland proved to be scrap heap gems and put up career-best numbers. However, it is best not to count on them and have them start the year in AAA. They get awarded $1M in arbitration each. One more arm is needed to be brought in to protect against regression and complete the bullpen.

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno3_100.0.jpgJoining up after a year in Oakland is RHP Luke Gregerson on a 1-year, $6M contract. Gregerson is tough against both righties and lefties so he doesn't come with the drawbacks associated with a LOOGY making for a good second option after Edgin. Last season saw him put up solid number overall (2.12 ERA, 3.24 FIP) with solid peripherals (7.34 K/9, 1.87 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9). He also makes for a fine high-leverage option.

Finally, RHP Jeff Niemann and RHP Manny Corpas are signed to minor league deals to add some hopeful pitching depth to the organization. If they figure it out we have some low-cost help for a stretch run. If not, they cost nothing but time.

Burst into the IFA Scene:

tumblr_ndtn2dQswI1rsbgyno5_100.0.jpgThe Mets have been very quiet in the international free agent market. It's time that changes in a big way. UTL Yoan Moncada is signed to a $86M, 8-year contract. The structure of the deal is as such: 2015: $8M, 2016: $9M, 2017: $10M, 2018: $11M, 2019: $12M, 2020: $12M, 2021: $12M, 2022: $12M. It is that largest awarded to a free agent defector of Cuba subject to IFA signing pools or not. The Mets have $2.9M to spend on the IFA market. If you go over by more than 15% of your budget, the overage is taxed 100%. This tax amounts to $5.025M ($8M - $2.9M = $5.025M). Additionally, as punishment we forfeit the ability to sign a player in the following two year's IFA periods (2016 and 2017) to bonuses exceeding $300K. Moncada is worth the price. He left Cuba after his request for a visa was granted by the Cuban government but hasn't popped up yet with an established residence in any other country (he's believed to be in Mexico or the Dominican Republic). Even after he does surface, he needs to go through the necessary legal step to be eligible to play in the US which would take months to sort out. As such, he is set to be available for the 2015-16 IFA signing period (ie after June 2nd, 2015) which is beneficial to us due to the fact that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are all essentially out of the running after exceeding their IFA pools by >15% in the previous signing period. We would probably be competing with the Dodgers, Cubs, and a dark-horse like the Indians for his services, but the above contract should get it done.

The 20 year-old (at the time of the signing) plays mostly 2B and 3B but has seen time at SS and CF. He brings to the table a quick bat and raw power as a switch hitter with plus-plus speed. He also brings an average arm and plus range and athleticism making a long-term home at SS a possibility. Do to his age and situation, he will likely need two to three years in the minors before he is ready for Queens. He starts his MLB journey at the St. Lucy training facility and immediately becomes our #1 prospect and works to replace the prospect assets lost in the rest of the plan.

Reward Success:

1B Lucas Duda is signed to a $29M, 4-year contract extension. The structure of the contract is as such: 2015: $6M, 2016: $7M, 2017: $8M, 2018: $8M). Set to make $4.3M in year-two arbitration, the extension sees him get a raise for the 2015 season and long-term security, but give up potential future arbitration windfalls and one year of free agency. As a 7th round draft pick, this type of deal would appeal to the 28 year old demure slugger. It also makes sense on our end in that it gives us cost-certainty for a type of player who could rack up arbitration-friendly numbers (HR and RBI). Duda came to focus this past season posting a 136 wRC+ and 30 HRs after a deceptively good 2013 (120 wRC+).

Final Notes:

This team is built to compete now and in the future. Zobrist and Bryant represent a big improvement on the offensive side of the field making for the best lineup this team has had since 2007. Their cost was steep, but the effects of that price on our organization are mitigated by the additions of Villanueva and Moncada. And let us not forget that Bryant himself helps alleviate that blow since he is essentially a prospect. Our biggest minor league pieces are still present (Syndergaard, Nimmo, Conforto) as are most of our fast risers (Matz, Herrera, Molina, Mazzoni, Meisner, etc). Most of the prospect talent moved out was either blocked and redundant (Pawlecki, Boyd), moderate-ceiling (Montero, Smith), low-ceiling (Boyd, Bowman), or for another elite prospect (deGrom). The pitching is still strong and still built on the backs of young talent. The bullpen and bench look to be a real strengths for the first time in maybe a decade.

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Additions: Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Colby Lewis, Will Venable, Scott Van Slyke, Luke Gregerson, Yoan Moncada, Christian Villanueva, Chad Billingsley, Ross Ohlendorf, Manny Corpas, Jeff Neimann

Departures: Daniel Murphy, Jake deGrom, John Niese, Rafael Montero, Bartolo Colon, Kevin Plawecki, Dominic Smith, Eric Young Jr, Ruben Tejada, Kirk Nieuwnhuis, Josh Satin, German Ahmed Rosario, Matthew Bowman, Jayce Boyd,

Guaranteed Contracts: $37.5M

Contracts via Arbitration: $10.2M

Contracts via Extensions: $8.5M (classifying Duda and Parnell as extensions)

Contracts via FA/Trades: $26.15M

Contracts via IFA: $8M

Money via taxes: $5.02M

Total 2015 Payroll: $95.37M

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