Back in January, I was drunk and decided to write a writeup of a few interesting names for the 2014 draft. I'll go over those names with a shorter writeup along with some risers and fallers that may be available to the Mets. I'll list the brief elements of the scouting reports I posted in January with what has changed. Once again, let's start sexy with....
Michael Gettys: OF, Gainesville HS, Georgia
Height: 6'2" Weight: 205
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Tools: A lot(70 raw, 75 run, 80 arm, 65 field)
Back in January, I put Gettys' ceiling has a Role High 7 which is a superstar and a guy who gets MVP votes. That hasn't changed one bit. Gettys has come out this season showing the same dynamic skill set that made him a favorite of many Mets fans here on AA. If anything, Gettys has raised his stock by showing off an improved hit tool including using more of the field. If he's on the board, he is most definitely the guy I would take. Gettys has raised his stock which means he might not be available to the Mets, but given the nature of this draft, he very well may be available at number 10. Let's hope for it. #GetGettys remains alive and well.
Brady Aiken: LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS, California
Height: 6'4" Weight: 205
Tools: potential 60's across the board(fastball, curveball, changeup, control, command)
Back in January, I gave Aiken a number 3 ceiling which makes me look like an idiot now. Aiken has come out blazing here in 2014 and might be the favorite for the number 1 pick. The big knock on Aiken was that he lacked clear plus plus pitches which limited his upside. That's changed as Aiken is sitting 92-94 this spring touching 97. He has a very athletic frame with room to add some weight so the fastball could eventually be a monster pitch, especially for a lefty. His curveball might be plus today and could end up plus plus. Aiken would be a very very good prospect if the scouting report stopped here, but he also showcases a potentially plus changeup as well as plus command, stemming from his athletic frame and loose easy delivery. Put it all together and this combination of youth(Aiken is one of the youngest players in the draft), stuff, and polish is extremely rare. As Keith Law remarked a few days ago: This is what the Clayton Kershaw starter kit looks like. Aiken has firmly thrust himself into the top 5 if not the top spot and it's unlikely that he is around on draft day. #AchingforAiken must come to an end.
Touki Toussaint: RHP, Coral Springs Christian HS, Florida
Height: 6'2" Weight: 185
Tools: Potential 70 fastball and curveball, 80 name
Toussaint is the pitcher version of Gettys in this draft with talent and potential off the charts but one significant flaw holding him back. The frontline ceiling I gave Toussaint hasn't changed as he has come out this spring showing the same easy mid 90's velocity and obscene hammer of a curveball. He also shows a cutter at times and his arm action leads me to believe that a good changeup is in the tank. His control has improved as well although not to the point where he will definitely not be available to the Mets. However, I am very bullish on Touki's control for several reasons. Firstly, he is new to pitching, having given up soccer in 9th grade. Secondly, he has a very easy delivery with a lovely arm action that indicates that his delivery is repeatable. Thirdly, he has projection remaining which means he hasn't grown into his body. A person of Toussaint's profile is the profile you bet on to develop better command and I think he will. I don't think I would take him over Gettys if both are available but it is pretty close. Like Gettys, he might get popped early but there is definitely a chance that he is around at 10. #TakeTouki remains alive.
Jacob Gatewood: SS, Clovis High School, California
Height: 6'5" Weight: 190
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Tools: 70+ raw, 60 arm
I gave Gatewood an all star ceiling in January and that hasn't changed. His hit tool has improved slightly and his power remains prodigious(he hit a 486 foot home run recently). However, Gatewood is no lock to stick at shortstop due to a lack of top of the line footspeed and his size. However, he should comfortable settle into a plus defender at third base or right field due to his athleticism. The biggest question for Gatewood, like Gettys, is the hit tool, but I prefer Gettys' hit tool because his swing isn't as long and Gatewood struggles to repeat his swing. Also, Gettys has near elite speed and an elite arm with a center fielder profile to fall back on. Gatewood will probably be off the board by the time the Mets pick simply because if you squint your eyes really hard you can see a 40 homer shortstop but I will take Gettys over him all day.
Grant Holmes: RHP, Conway HS, South Carolina
Height: 6'2" Weight: 190
Tools: Potential 70 fastball, 65 curveball
I gave Holmes a number 2/3 starter ceiling in January and that might be a little bit light. Holmes has thrust himself into at least the top 15 as he has shown the same mid 90's velocity touching 97 along with a plus breaking ball and an improving changeup. His clean delivery gives him decent command as well. The big knock is his utter lack of physical projection which means that you can't dream on him like you can with a Toussaint or Aiken. I wouldn't be disappointed if the Mets took Holmes at 10 but I am sure that there will be more ceiling available.
Luis Ortiz: RHP, Sanger HS, California
Height: 6'3" Weight: 220
Tools: Potential 70 fastball/slider
Ortiz and Holmes are very similar prospects as both have number 2 starter ceilings with electric fastball/breaking ball combos. Ortiz has a clean delivery and a workhorse frame but it is unlikely he adds any velocity and neither his command nor his changeup are as polished as Holmes'. Ortiz will be around on draft day but I highly doubt he will be the best player available.
Michael Cederoth: RHP, San Diego State
Height: 6'6" Weight: 210
Tools: Potential 75 fastball, 65 slider
Cederoth's stuff is dominant but his delivery and utter lack of control make it likely that he ends up in the bullpen. There is already talk that he gets drafted as a reliever. We don't take relievers with first round picks do we Mr. Minaya?
Nick Gordon: SS, Olympia HS, Florida
Height: 6'2" Weight: 170
Bats: L Throws: R
Tools: 60 run, 65 arm, 60 field
Gordon has improved his stock and maintained his first division ceiling this fall. He now projects to definitely remain at short, and he has also added 10 pounds of muscle, something which his brother Dee could never seem to do. He has showed the ability to drive the ball with more authority now and has become less of a slap hiter. Gordon's hit tool could be plus and he could play plus defense at short. That's a very valuable player. Gordon would be a solid choice for the Mets, but he won't have the highest ceiling available. I was tempted to compare him to Gavin Cecchini, but Gordon will stick at shortstop and will play plus defense there and his in game swing is also better. The Phillies might be tempted to pop him at number 7 because he, along with JP Crawford, would form a dynamic middle infield combo. Let them do that, don't lose sight of the ultimate goal....#GetGettys.
Braxton Davidson: 1B/OF, TC Robertson HS, North Carolina
Height: 6'3" Weight: 215
Bats: L Throws: L
Tools: Potential 65 Hit/Power, 60 arm
Nothing has really changed with Davidson. He's really a very similar player to Dominic Smith. Davidson has more raw power but Smith is at least as good a pure hitter and plays much better defense. Like Smith, Davidson't hitting ability offers hope of a first division ceiling. Davidson is as good as if not better than Alex Jackson at hitting but he can't do much else which limits his ceiling. Dominic Smith was a fine pick in a weaker 2013 draft, but I would be disappointed with Davidson at number 10 this year.
Sean Newcomb: LHP, University of Hartford
Height: 6'5" Weight: 240
Tools: Potential 70 fastball, 65 slider
I'm going to be brief here because Mr. Paternostro has an excellent eyewitness report of Newcomb up which you all should read. Newcomb showcases premium velocity for a lefty as he can touch 97 from an easy delivery. His slider and curve could both be plus. However, his command would be fine for a prep pitcher but not for a college pitcher. Newcomb is not like Cederoth because a grade of improvement in command makes him a mid rotation starter. It's starter stuff and the reward might be worth the risk, but Newcomb is not the type of player I see the Mets picking due to his command and lack of polish for a college pitcher along with his lack of physical projection.
Dylan Cease: RHP, Milton HS, Georgia
Height: 6'2" Weight: 180
Tools: Potential 70+ fastball, 55+ curveball
Nothing has really changed with Cease. He has a high ceiling as a number 2 starter but he doesn't have an overwhelming breaking ball to go with his electric fastball and his control and command lag behind due to his inability to repeat his delivery. Cease has an easy delivery and projection remaining but this is a guy you take in the later stages of the first round. Cease is a lot like Toussaint without the knockout curve. He will be available on draft day but the Mets shouldn't take him.
Kodi Medeiros: LHP, Waikeka HS, Hawaii
Height: 6'0" Weight: 185
Tools: Potential 60+ fastball, 70+ slider, 55+ changeup
I still don't know what to make of Medeiros. His ceiling is tough to pinpoint because of his small stature and unorthodox delivery. Yes Chris Sale did it with that type of delivery but that is not the norm. Medeiros' stuff is nasty and he might be a LOOGY in the bigs tomorrow(we need one of those!), but he might be more of a project for a team later in the first round. Who knows what the ceiling is, and I do love ceiling, but he's just a weird player to make sense of. I don't see the Mets taking him but he better be taken before the Cardinals pick because their vodoo magic will turn Medeiros into an ace. I'm sure of it.
These are all the guys I covered in January. Besides Brady Aiken, most of them have decent chances of being available on draft day. Now I will look at a few risers and fallers who also might be available on draft day.
Trea Turner: SS, NC State
Height: 6'1", Weight: 170
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Tools: 80 run, potential 60 hit, 60 field, 60 arm
Turner's stock has slightly dropped this Spring because some scouts worry that his power will be non-existent in the Majors. Turner has a wiry frame and I like his swing and batspeed. He could be a plus hitter in the majors and his plate discipline is quite good. Even if he never hits more than 10 homers in a season this is still a player you want. Turner's speed pretty much breaks the scale. He has been recorded at 3.5 seconds down the line on a bunt and at 6.32 seconds on a 60 yard dash, both of which are elite with room to spare. Keith Law doubts his ability to stay at short, but I don't. His range is good, and he has a strong arm. He has what it takes to play plus defense in the big leagues. Turner has more of a chance to be available when the Mets pick and he is tailor made for the Mets as a player. The best comp I can put on him is the White Reyes, although he may never have Reyes' pop. The lack of power keeps him from that role 7 ceiling, but he is a very strong 4 tool player. The #TankforTrea engine has picked up some steam.
Ceiling: Role 6, first division starter
Risk: Medium. Turner is an 80 runner who can play plus shortstop defense. That gets you to the majors and I think Turner's hit tool is legit. His power limits the ceiling but he has an excellent shot to be an above average starter.
Jeff Hoffman: RHP, East Carolina University
Height: 6'4", Weight: 185
Tools: 70 fastball, potential 65 changeup, potential 60+ curveball
Hoffman was the consensus number 2 pick behind Carlos Rodon(whose stock has not fallen enough to put him here), but Hoffman has failed to show any kind of consistency this Spring. His fastball sits 93-96 and will touch 98. He has an easy delivery and an ideal frame which leads to some projection. His changeup is currently his second best offering as it has great armspeed and his arm action is great. The problem with Hoffman lies in his inconsistency with regards to his control, command, and curveball. He has struggled to throw strikes this season, and his plus plus hammer that he showed during the Cape Cod League has only flashed plus this year. Hoffman's ceiling is among the highest in this draft, and the Mets have been very good at developing pitchers with command problems. If Hoffman is available on draft day, the Mets should strongly consider taking him, improving his command, and molding him into an ace: much like they did with another inconsistent North Carolina college pitcher.
Ceiling: Role 7; 1/2 starter
Risk: High, Hoffman has electric stuff but his lack of consistency and rawness is very disturbing for a college pitcher. Then again the Mets have had positive experiences with improving the control and command of similar profile guys in Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.
Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU
Height: 6'2", Weight: 170
Tools: Plus control/command, 60 fastball, 60 change, potential 55 slider
Nola is rising fast due to his utterly dominant performance this Spring. He has barely allowed any runs, has outdueled Tyler Beede, and has struck out 12 multiple times. His stuff doesn't blow you away as he has a low 90's fastball which occasionally touches 94 or 95 with pinpoint control. His change is an out pitch and his slider will be solid average in the future. Nola's ceiling is limited due to his lack of plus plus pitches, but he may be the rare case of a pitcher whose control makes his stuff play up and raises his ceiling. It's tough to tell whether Nola is that type of pitcher, but he has value as a potential mid-rotation pitcher who can move fast. I would prefer a higher ceiling player at number 10, but Nola could be an intriguing option for a team which needs pitching fast.
Ceiling: Role High 5; 3/4 starter
Risk: Low, Nola has good present stuff and excellent control. He should settle into being a solid Dillon Gee type starter about 2 years after he is drafted
Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU
Height: 5'11, Weight: 185
Tools: 65 fastball, potentially 65 slider, 50 changeup
Finnegan has questions about whether he can start due to his frame and high effort delivery. However, the stuff is strong has Finnegan sits 92-94 and can touch 97 and sometimes even higher. His slider can be nasty when on. His change isn't an out pitch but it can be a serviceable third pitch. Finnegan struggles with control at times, which is a red flag for a shorter pitcher. When he is locating Finnegan can be dominant but combination of risk and ceiling isn't enough for me to bite with the number 10 pick, and Finnegan could still end up in the bullpen.
Ceiling: Role 6, 2/3 starter
Risk: High, lack of consistent control and a consistent third pitch along with questions about his ability to remain a starter hold Finnegan back.
Well that's all folks. Thanks for reading as always. I apologize for the lack of my usual grission with regards to jokes, memes, chartz, and paintz. I'm saving it for the gamethreads. I'll aim to post another one of these a few weeks before the draft.