The draft is one of the funnest parts of the year! We get to dream about our future! This list is the players on the MLB.com top 50 But in my order. The scouting i looked on a umber of different sites for, and it is my take on what i have learned. The comparisons that i make are base on similar tools, NOT potential upside. You should keep in mind that the Mets have the 10th overall pick, and then give their 2nd round pick to the Yankees as compansation for Curtis Granderson.
The draft is usually split into 2 groups, Those with insanely high but hard to reach potential (Usually high schooolers). And those who have somewhat lower potential but have a better chace at fulfilling it( Usually Colledge players). The first pick or two are those who are the exeptions two that rule. But even last year the first overall pick was Mark Appel, who did not have the highest potential. I favor the ones with higher potential, seeing how even the surest ones have a bad chance at making it.
But the #1 thing that you must remember is that, I AM NOT A SCOUT!!!
Here is a list so you can find who you're looking for.
1) Brady Aiken
3) Carlos Rodon
4) Alex Jackson
6) Touki Toussaint
7) Trea Turner
8) Tyler Beede
11) Michael Gettys
12) Nick Gordon
13) Aaron Nola
16) Grant Holmes
19) Luis Ortiz
21) Derek Fisher
36) Scott Blewett
37) Matt Chapman
39) Justus Sheffield
40) Alex Verdugo
1) Brady Aiken- LHP, HS:
Aiken has improved vastly over the winter. He now is supposed to have as good stuff as Carlos Rodon, and has atleast as much potential. As a teenager he is too good to be true, which brings me to my comparison...
Comparison: Clayton Kershaw- Without an insane amount of velocity, Aiken- like Kershaw- lives on his Command and offspead pitches. He can reach the big leagues extremely young. There is alot to love about this kid.
2)Tyler Kolek- RHP, HS:
Tyler Kolek is a power pitcher. He has a great, 100MPH, fastball and an electric slider and curve. His problems are his changeup a control. But coming out of high school, he has plenty of time to learn.
Comparison: Zack Wheeler- Both Wheeler and Kolek have insanely good pure stuff. If they can't get their control together, they will still be good, mid-rotation starters. If they can get their control together, then even the sky isn't the limit!
3) Carlos Rodon- LHP, College:
Yes, he did the near impossible. He somehow managed to fall from being the unanimus first pick. The main issue is his fastball command, it has been a major issue this spring. He still has "ace" potential but it seems slightly less likely that he fulfill it. He still has a good chance to go #1 though.
Comparison: David Price- This is an easy one. People were saying for a while that he was the best college lefty since. And he still is.
4) Alex Jackson- C, HS:
A high school catcher with above average power, hitting and arm he can field well to! There is not much more to say.
Comparison: Buster Posey- An arm, Great hitter and a catcher who might be moved for his offensive potential. It's a perfect fit! Exept that Jackson might have a little more power!
5)Jeff Hoffman- RHP, College:
Hoffman was an easy choice for #2 before both him and Rodon fell. Like Rodon he is still very high up on draftboards anyways. Hoffman has a mid-90's fastball, that could gain more velocity in the future. He could have a plus curveball, and a good change. His control is good but it needs to get better in the big's
Comparison: Stephen Strasburg- WITHOUT THE VELOCITY! Again this isn't a blow for Hoffman, just a praise for Strasburg.
6) Touki Toussaint- RHP, HS:
Comparison: Noah Syndergaard- Same quality pitches. But Syndergaard has better command.
7) Trea Turner- SS, College:
Turner has plus to plus plus speed and will stay at SS. His has great bat speed will give him the ability to hit for average. He didn't perform so well leading up to the draft, but this was mainly because he was batting 3rd, a spot that this leadoff man isn't used to.
Comparison: Jose Reyes- A SS with leadoff speed and some pop. Perfect match.
8) Tyler Beede- RHP, College:
Beede has a mid 90's fastball, and an above average curveball and changeup. he has to improve his offspeed pitches though, in order to fulfill his potential. He also needs to vastly improve his control.
Comparison: Noah Syndergaard with out his control- Both have great fastballs, but are thought to need to improve their offspeed stuff.
9)Kyle Schwarber- C, College:
Kyle Schwarber is as close as we ca come to the next Mike Piazza. He has an above average hit tool, and a plus power tool. He will really look like piazza after you hear this, he has a below average arm, fielding and running tool. He may have to mve to LF but either way he should hit in the bigs.
Comparison: Mike Piazza- Because, everything i said above.
10)Jacob Gatewood- SS, HS:
Gatewood has plus to plus plus power. I officially listed him as a SS but i fully believe he will have to move to third. He has a plus arm and isn't a bad runner, If he can learn to be an average hitter ( which some believe he can) the he will be a VERY valuable player.
Comparison: Mark Reynolds- Both just need to hit. If the Mets send Gatewood to fat camp then i compare him to A-Rod!
11) Michael Gettys- CF, HS:
Getty's was alot of peoples faverite on this site. But alot has changed. While he still has 3 plus tools ( arm, fielding, and running) his power is slightly above average too. But he can't hit! He has a terrible K rate in HS, and scouts don't think it will improve when he faces harder pitching. Then again if he defies scouts and it does improve, he can be Mike Trout.
Comparison: Carlos Gomez, before his BA came- 4 tools. missing tool #1.
12) Nick Gordon- SS, HS:
He will never ( in my, non-scout, opinion) be a HOF caliber player. Of course, this is true about almost everyone in this draft. But most of the others, you can dream on HOF careers (AKA Jacob Gatewood. But you can't dream on him, no mater how good he can be. He can field, Throw and run above average, allowing him to stay at SS. He can hit about average, with slightly below average power. He can be very productive, you just can't dream.
Comparison: Elvis Andrus- both can somewhat hit, but can field, throw and run well. Again he can be a star. Not a HOFer.
13) Aaron Nola- RHP, College:
The exiting thig about Nola is his changeup, it is already very advanced and will only get better. He has a low 90's fastball and a developing slider. He commands all of his pitches very well.
Comparison: Rafael Montero- They are almost identical... In their pitching ability's.
14)Braxton Davidson- RF, HS:
Davidson can't run or field, though he does have a good arm. What Davidson can do is hit and hit for power. He can be above average at both.
Comparison: Jay Bruce- Looks good, but hopefully Davidson will hit for a better average.
15) Grant Holmes- RHP, HS:
He is small. He is young. He throws 100 MPH and shows a great curveball. He also has above average control! His changup is a bit weak, but i have 0 problem with the Mets drafting him 10th.
Comparison: Stephen Strasburg- And Strasburg came out of college!
16)Sean Newcomb- LHP, College:
A big lefty who is sure to make the big's atleast as a lefty specialist. At most as an extremely dominant lefty force. He has a mid 90's fastball and throws a slider that could be above average as well. His changeup isn't that good but could turn out to be big league average. He also has mediocre control.
Comparison: A lefty Yordano Ventura- Control issues, lack of secondary pitch, but wins because of his fastball and hight. ( though Ventura is small).
17)Bradley Zimmer- CF, College:
Zimmer is a 5 tool player with no plus tools. All of his tools are slightly above average but again, non are plus.
Comparison: Austin Jackson- See how valuable you could be with no plus tools?
18)Max Pentecost- C, College:
Pentecost is a catcher with slightly above average hitting but slightly below average power. He can throw well and will likely stay behind the plate.
Comparison: Salvador Perez- hitting is hitting and catching is catching
19) Luis Ortiz- RHP, HS:
Ortiz has a low to mid 90's fastball, and doesnt appear to get stronger in the future. He has an above average curve, but his slider and changeup are struggling to be average. his command will never be amazing but wont kill him.
Comparison: Jon Neise- Probably won't be an ace.
20)Kodi Medeiros- LHP, HS: He is one of my faverites. A lefty from Hawaii he is pretty short at only 6 feet. His fastball sits in the low 90's but his slider and changeup ( along with the fastball) all move alot, and could be above average at the MLB level. The problem is his control, but though some are doubtful i think it may improve when he goes to a more baseball like atmosphere.
Comparison: Matt Moore- Another lefty with great stuff but questionable command.
21) Derek Fisher- LF, College:
Fisher is another guy that can only hit. But hitting is fine, we like hitting! He doesnt't have any "Plus" tools but should be an above average hitter for average and power.
Comparison: Alex Gordon- Without the defense.
22)Cobi Johnson- RHP, HS: Johnson currently has a fastball that sits around 90. But seeing how he is 6'4 and 170, i think he can increase to atleast 93. He has a great curveball and developing changeup. He should have above average control where ever he pitches.
Comparison: Pierce Johnson- Sorry he's the best i could do.
23)Luke Weaver- RHP, college.
Weaver has a low 90's fastball, a great changeup, and an average curveball. He also has Above average control.
Comparison: Dillon Gee- Great change good command. That's how you live.
24)Michael Cederoth- RHP, College:
Mike has a plus plus fastball and an above average slider. His changeup and Curve could also be average. but he has such a lack of command coming out of college, it's scary.
Comparison: Henry Rodriguez- Of couse, first Cederoth will be given a chance to start.
25)Eric Fedde- RHP, College:
Fedde has a projectable frame coming out of college. ut for now he has a low 90's fastball with atleast an average slider and changeup. He has above average control.
Comparison: Jenrry Mejia- 'Bout the same, but Feede is taller.
26)Michael Conforto- RF, College:
Conforto has an average arm and glove. He runs slowly and hits averagely, Of course he has above average power.
Comparison: Hunter Pence- Conforto is a slightly better defender.
27)Kyle Freeland- LHP, College:
Freeland has a mid 90's fastball and an above average slider, though his changeup is no better than average. He actually has above average control.
Comparison: Jon Lester- That's it.
28)Dylan Cease- RHP, HS:
The first thing that must be noted about Cease is that he is about to have tommy john surgery. So, like Sean Menia of last year, he might come as a 3rd ( or so) round steal. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a slightly above average curveball. His changeup and control are both just average, so with that plus the TJ he may fall to the Mets in round 3.
Comparison: Homer Baily
29)Brandon Finnegan- LHP, College:
Finnegan is so low because i'm convinced he will be a reliever. He is so high because i'm not a scout. He has a great mid to high 90's fastball and an average slider changeup and control.
Comparison: Aroldis Chapman- Of course, like everyone else on earth, Finnegan still has less velocity.
30)Sean Reid-Foley- RHP, HS:
Foley has a low to mid 90's fastball and an above average slider. He has an average curve and changeup but above average control.
Comparison: Jose Fernandez- This is not what he's expected to be. but what his tools look like.
31)Michael Chavis- SS, HS:
Chavis has above average hit tool and power. For the time being, it looks like he can stay at SS, as he has an Above averange arm and field tool. He is an average runner too!
Comparison: Jurickson Profar- A SS with a little bit of everything!.
32)Monte Harrison- CF/RF, HS:
Harrison's only plus tool is his arm. He's than an above average runner and fielder, with an average hit tool, and slightly above average power.
Coparison: Ceasae Puello- Harrison might be slightly better!
33)Nick Burdi- RHP, College:
This guy is already in the bullpen. Why is he so high? Because i'm going to end up comparing him to Craig Kimbral! He has a plus plus 100 MPH fastball and a plus slider. His changeup is below average, and his command is only average. But as Kimbral has proved, you can live with a with what Burdi's got!
Comparison: Craig Kimbral- told yeh.
34)Mac Marshall- LHP, HS:
Marshall has 3 above average offerings. He has a low 90's fastball, and good curve. His money pitch is his changeup, it's a good one coming out of HS. Marshall has slightly above average command.
Comparison: Cole Hamels- On a lesser scale.
35)Ti'quan Forbes- SS, HS:
Forbes has an above average arm, run, and hit tool. The two missing tools are still o less than average.
Comparison: Wilmer Flores- Forbes is faster and has a slightly better chance to stick at SS.
36) Scott Blewett- RHP, HS:
The NY native is a 6'6 righty! his fastball is now only about 94 MPH but very likely to improve. He has an average curve and slightly below average changeup to go along with his average command.
Comparison: Bobby Parnell- Scott will get every oppertunity to start.
37) Matt Chapman- 3B, College:
Chapman has slightly above average power and fielding abilty. he has a plus arm at third but will need to learn to hit.
Comparison: Mike Moustakus- Truthfully Mike has mmore power than Matt.
38)Dylan Davis- RF, College.
Truthfuly, Davies is exactly like Matt Chapman (above) just one plays RF and one plays 3B. You have my take on Chapmans tools above.
Comparison: Jeff Francour- Remember this is about tools, not what's expected.
39) Justus Sheffield- LHP, HS:
Justus has a low 90's, but good, fastball. His curveball and changeup are both slightly above average. And his control is average.
Comparison: Madison Bumgarner- Of course replace the "plus" command with "average" control.
40) Alex Verdugo- LHP, HS:
Verdugo has a low 90's fastball with an average curveball, and changeup. his command can best be described as... average.
Comparison: Tom milone- Not Sam, Tom!
41)Derek Hill- CF, HS:
Hill is so high because this point he still has 2 plus tools his speed, and his fielding. He has an average arm and hit tool. and slightly below average power.
Comparison: Tony Campana- Billy Hamilton could also be in this spot, depends on how you look at it.
42)Greg Deichmann- SS, HS:
Greg has above average speed, arm strenth and power. his bat and glove are both average. Him staying at SS will depend on how he grows ad wether or not his team sends him to fat camp.
Comparison: J.J. Hardy- Though Hardy has good range.
43)Michael Kopech- RHP, HS:
Mike has a great high 90's fastball, and an equally great curve. His changeup and control are both below average. But his fastball alone, and of course the curve, will make him very popular.
Comparison: Aroldis Chapman- Again Kopech will have every cance to remain a starter.
44)Jakson Reetz- C, HS:
Reetz has an above average arm and hit tool. His average tools include power and fieldig. As all great catchers, he can't run.
Comparison: Travis d'Arnaud- d'Arnaud can field better.
45)Cameron Varga- RHP, HS:
Varga has a mid 90's fastball and a very good curveball as well. He has a below average chageup and average control.
Comparison: Jameson Taillon- Varga isn't exactly there yet.
46)J.D. Davis- 1B, College:
Davis has above average power, hitting, and arm. He can't run and is an average fielder. If he fails as a hitter, he is good eough on the mound to be an O.K. reliever.
Comparison: James Loney- And Rick Ankiel for differeant reasons.
47)Keaton McKinney- RHP, HS:
A low 90's fastball that could get better as he matures. His curve isn't much but his changeup is above average. He has average control.
Comparison: Jacob deGrom- With a better changeup.
48)Joe Gatto- RHP, HS:
Another low 90's fastball guy who could/ should move into the mid 90's asthey mature. He has an above average curveball, below average changeup and average command.
Comparison: Jacob deGrom- This time, perfect fit.
49)Josh Morgan- SS, HS:
Morgan has a average hit and field tool and above average run and throw tool. A Below average power tool.
Comparison: Erick Aybar- He's a worse fielder.
50)Jeren Kendall- CF, HS:
Kendall has plus speed and above average fielding. He can't hit for average or power, he has an average arm.
Comparison: Tony Campana- Again...
No mater how bad some of these guys look, this is just the tip of the iceburg. These are the top 50 of 30 picks in 50 rounds. Some of those later picks turn out pretty good. Like Nolan Ryan in the 12th round. Or Albert Pujols in the 13th round. Or if you are drafted in the 64th round as a favor through nepotism, and become the best hitting and best pitch framing catcher of all time!
In short, the draft is a crapshoot, nobody is a sure thing. Some are surer than others, and the draft is a heck of alot of fun for the fans. But nobody can be blamed for a wrong decision and nobody can be credited.
Take the Braves for example. They had the first overall pick, wanted a high school righty but the kid said he wouldn't sign. After finally being convinced that he really wouldn't sign, they drafted a high school third baseman named Chipper Jones. The pitcher was drafted by the Yankees in the first round, signed, and never made the majors.
Hope you enjoyed this 3200+ word post. I worked way too hard on it. Man i have no life.