FanPost

Opinion: Alderson should sell, not buy, at Deadline; devote resources to free agency




As Major League Baseball's trade deadline approaches, the calls for Sandy Alderson and the Mets to trade for an impact bat have grown louder. Most, like New York Daily News columnist John Harper, have argued that the Mets should trade for a shortstop, with Starlin Castro and Troy Tulowitzki being the most common suggestions. Either of these players, and Tulowitzki in particular, would require an impressive prospect haul to require.

These calls for action lead to the question; is such a trade worth it? First, let's look at Harper's suggestion:

"...that means trading Zack Wheeler and perhaps even another pitcher to get [Starlin Castro]..."

At first glance, this might seem like a fair trade, or even a trade that slightly favors the Mets. Castro is having a fantastic offensive season, and despite a mediocre 6.6% walk rate, he has managed a 107 wRC+ thanks to his tendency to pile up extra base hits. Zack Wheeler, despite lowering his SIERA from 4.33 to 3.57 this season, still only projects as a roughly average pitcher this season.

If we look back over a broader sample size, however, it becomes clear that Castro is no star. Over a career 3039 Plate Appearances, Castro has been worth a grand total of 10 fWAR, or about 2 wins per 600 PA's. Last year, he was worth 0.0 WAR, and no, that is not a typo.

He's under contract until 2019 for about $45 Million over 5 and 1/2 years, with a $16 Million team option for 2020. So, assuming the team picks up the team option, that's averages out to approximately $9.4 Million per year. While that's cheap compared to what Castro's worth this year, that is by no means an extraordinary bargain.

Wheeler, on the other hand, is not yet arbitration eligible, making him a remarkable bargain. He'll continue to get paid at about $500 K up until 2017, his first year of arbitration eligibility. His cost will go up then, but he will certainly be far chaper than Castro, and under contract for the same period of time. Not to mention, he has improved in every facet of the game this year; his strikeouts have gone up, his walks have gone down, and he's getting more ground-balls than ever before, which is in turn lowering his HR rate. He is near the top of the list in average fastball velocity for starting pitchers. Wheeler is not too far away from realizing his frontline starter potential. Do we really want to risk losing a cheap, superstar pitcher for a talented yet flawed player like Castro?

Troy Tulowitzki is a completely different story. Most fans, including myself, would be willing to deal Wheeler for Tulowitzki, but obviously Wheeler alone wouldn't get it done. Tulowitzki has been the most valuable player in the National League in 2014, and his contract is a bargain relative to his on-field production (and the revenue he brings in, for that matter) despite his injury history.

The only problem is that it would take a complete emptying of the farm system to acquire Tulowitzki. That means three to four top prospects, with Syndergaard being a pre-requisite. I don't think the Mets want to just trade away their entire farm system for one player, especially one with major injury concerns and a history of struggles outside of Coors Field.

Now, I know what you're probably thinking: You have to give something to get something! How will we acquire a major piece without giving up prospects?

The answer? Free agency after the season. Let's face facts; while the 2014 Mets may be playing better baseball of late, they are in all likelihood not a playoff team. There chances of reaching the divisional series (Earning a Wild Card spot and then winning the 1-game Wild Card Playoff) range from 0.4% (using the FanGraphs projection system) to 9.3% (using the Season to Date system). Not great odds.

So rather than add a player at the deadline in the hopes of competing this year, the Mets should be sellers at the deadline, selling players that will provide only limited value from 2015 forward. That means shopping the aging Colon and the mediocre Gee (Career 2.9 WAR) Even Murphy, who is only under contract only one more year (Dilson Herrera, a 2B in AA, is batting .361 as the youngest player in the league), and Niese, who's trade value might exceed his actual value. Obviously we shouldn't trade all of them, but all of those players should at least be on the table.

Then, in the offseason, we should go all in for a playoff run in 2015 without sacrificing the future. The Mets, despite being a large-market franchise, still have plenty of room to expand their payroll, ranking 23rd out of 30 teams in team payroll. Even if the Wilpons may not be flush with cash, they know that investing in a winner will bring fans to the ballpark and sell merchandise. In addition, despite being against long-term deals in general, Alderson showed last offseason that he is willing to invest in the right player, dolling out a 4 year $60 Million deal to sign Curtis Granderson.

There will be plenty of shortstops available. While some fans might be interested in Hanley Ramirez, he'll likely end up overpaid; teams will pay for his elite offense and ignore his terrible defense at short.

The three options that make the most sense for the Mets are JJ Hardy, Stephen Drew, and Jed Lowrie. While Hardy is my personal favorite, any of those players would work for the Mets, with costs ranging from $10-60 Million. And, most importantly, none of these players would require trading prospects.

While trading for prospects might sound appealing now, as the Mets cling to contention in late July, Sandy needs to be patient one last time and not give into the pressures of the fan-base to trade the farm. Sell Colon and Gee for prospects. Trade Niese or Murphy if a great offer comes up. The 2014 Mets are not close enough to winning a championship to justify a reckless, win-now move.

After this season, however, it's time for action.

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