Will the Mets make the playoffs?

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets have lost 19 of their last 28 games and are way behind in both the NL East and Wild Card races. Having said that, do they have a shot at making the postseason?

Hold on, stop laughing.

Nevermind, you can laugh. The Mets have lost four in a row, 19 of their last 28, and are 10 games behind the Braves in the NL East and 9.5 games out in the Wild Card race. It's probably RIP to the 2014 Mets.

Still, they're not mathematically eliminated. Baseball Prospectus puts their postseason odds at a whopping 1.0%. ESPN is a bit more optimistic at 5.9%. The hypothetical second Wild Card team has won about 89 games over the last five seasons, and the first-place Braves are on pace for 89 wins, so let's say the Mets would have to reach that mark to make the postseason. Given their current 37-48 record, they would have to go 52-25 over their remaining 77 games, a .675 winning percentage. For that miracle to transpire, a combination of several things would have to happen.

The first, and most important, thing is that the Mets would have to play a helluva lot better. You're welcome for this hard-hitting analysis. I'm thinking David Wright turning back into David Wright, Travis d'Arnaud living up to his prospect hype, Noah Syndergaard stepping into the rotation and doing a Matt Harvey impression, and Harvey himself throwing a few shutouts in September.

It's also possible that teams ahead of the Mets in the standings struggle, and parity reigns in the NL East and Wild Card races. The Braves and Nationals are both on winning streaks, but overall they haven't impressed. The 1973 Mets won the division with 82 wins. Anything is possible but not necessarily probable.

Additionally, the Mets' luck would not only have to even out, but swing the opposite way. Sandy Alderson was mocked in some circles this week for saying "if you look at the run differential, we should be a .500 team." It doesn't mean much but he had a point. Baseball Prospectus's first-, second-, and third-order wins suggest that the Mets should have four or five more wins, based on their underlying statistics. On its own, a luck reversal isn't enough to vault the Mets to playoff contention, but it would help.

The 1969 Mets played .667 ball from July 4 through the end of the season. It would take a similar run by the 2014 Mets to make the postseason. Otherwise, we'll look forward to 2015 2016 2017 when Curtis Granderson's contract is off the books and there is finally some payroll flexibility.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Amazin' Avenue

You must be a member of Amazin' Avenue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Amazin' Avenue. You should read them.

Join Amazin' Avenue

You must be a member of Amazin' Avenue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Amazin' Avenue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker