FanPost

Getting Stanton is a Pipe Dream. Just Stop it Already

Everybody wants Giancarlo Stanton and with good reason. He has mythic power, he's shown the ability to hit for average, he draws a ton of walks and has even added a speed element to his game (10 SB) this year. You can basically count on one hand the number of players who provide present day superstar value while still possessing projectable long term growth. Stanton, still three months shy of his 25th birthday, is absolutely one of those guys. So it's easy to see why everyone covets him. Unfortunately, that universal love along with many, as in MANY, other factors make seeing Giancarlo Stanton in a Mets uniform a pure and utter fantasy. Here are just some of those many factors:

Miami Has Shown No Indication Whatsoever That They Are Even Open To Trading Him

As Mets fans, we all seem to generally agree that our team is on the cusp of relevance. That with an impact player or two added to the current crop of talent, the team can reasonably expect a sustained run of contention. Well why should the Miami front office, looking at their current collection of talent, think any differently? They have a terrific young outfield anchored by Stanton. They have Nate Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez who have really blossomed into potential impact starters as well an impressive group of pitchers on the farm headlined by Andrew Heaney and Justin Nicolino. Oh yeah and they also have that Jose Fernandez guy who could be ready to pitch at some point next year. They're basically a couple of infield upgrades away from contention and Stanton is their most indispensable player.

Stanton's Under Team Control For Two More Years

This is why, from Miami's perspective, trading him makes absolutely no sense this winter. The popular narrative surrounds how Stanton is unhappy there and that he wants out, stemming from when Miami dumped half of it's roster on Toronto. For one, he's hasn't really bitched about being there since that trade two winters ago. Secondly, he has no leverage to force his way out of there so his happiness, or lack thereof, is basically irrelevant. If he really wants out, the only way I see it happening is if he refuses to discuss an extension this winter, plays out 2015 and then refuses to discuss an extension the following winter too. At that point, he'll be in the final year of team control and Miami would have a greater incentive to move him that winter or at the deadline. I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm not feeling the idea of holding onto our chips, suffering through another mediocre season with the hopes of cashing them in for Stanton to be our left fielder in 2016.

Miami Has a Better Chance of Locking Him up Long Term Than We Would

Yeah, they are notoriously cheap and Jeff Loria is probably deserving of a place on the Mount Rushmore of terrible pro sports owners. But let's not forget that this is the same franchise that was prepared to give Albert Pujols a 10/$200M+ deal after pushing their payroll past $100M by signing Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to monster deals. They have the wherewithal, unlike say Tampa or Pittsburgh, to resign him. It's probably going to take a deal in the 10/$275M range to lock up Stanton and with the way salaries are skyrocketing, that figure might even be conservative. Are any of you confident that Fred and Jeffy, who either can't afford to or are gun shy about pushing payroll past the nine-figure mark, would be willing to pony up that kind dough even for Stanton? If they aren't, trading for Stanton would be a disastrous mistake. And oh by the way, Miami's payroll currently sits at around $47M. I personally think they are going to extend him and make this all moot.

Somebody Can and Will Beat the Mets Best Offer

This is the big one. I'm not saying this because I think the Mets lack the necessary pieces to acquire him because they do have the pieces. I say this because our team's finances necessitate that we operate like a small-to-mid market team. It means that cost controlled talent, while important for every team to maintain payroll flexibility, is significantly more vital to a team like the Mets. Whereas if you look at a team like the Yankees or Detroit, they basically use their minor league system as an asset tool to acquire veteran talent. Then you have teams like Boston and St. Louis who still prioritize a strong minor league system while maintaining a large payroll. What I'm saying here is this: The bidding will eventually reach a point that will compel us to walk away. Unless we are willing to absolutely blow Miami's doors off, like something along the lines of Thor, Wheeler, Plaw, Nimmo, and Conforto. It sounds ridiculous but that is what it may take. Why? Because if we don't someone else will. There will undoubtedly be a big spending team out there that'll be willing to blow up their entire farm system to get this guy. Cost-controlled 25 year old superstars virtually never get traded because getting back commensurate value is almost impossible and most interested teams are bound to be scared off by the extreme costs. But in this case, when push comes to shove, I think someone is going to pay that price and that someone won't be the Mets, and probably rightly so.

Sorry folks, it's not happening. The only way we're getting this guy, is if he makes it to free agency and Jeffy somehow finds half a billion dollars hiding in between his couch cushions. Otherwise, this team hasn't showed me anything that would give me even the slightest inkling that they'd give a single player upwards of $300M. And as much as we'd all love Stanton, actually landing him this offseason is so far beyond the scope of reality that bringing his name up as a target is basically a waste of time. Fellow Mets fans, do yourselves a favor and move on.

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