As the Mets prepare to move one of their starting pitchers over the next week or so, as all reports indicate, it seems reasonable to wonder how much we might be able to help the major league roster with this move. One of the most frequently cited pitchers as a potential trade candidate is Dillon Gee. While we could trade Gee, another alternative might be to send him to the bullpen which would give us a lot of roster flexibility. Obviously, certain aspects of pitching play up in the pen, so it seems reasonable to wonder how Gee would fair in the relief role.
Gee essentially has a five pitch arsenal with the following usage as he goes through the order:
So, Gee will throw about 35% four seam fastballs, 32% two seam fastballs, 13% curveballs, 10% sliders, and 10% changeups.
Now, in a relief role, we would expect Gee to be able to "amp" up his fastball a bit. In 2014, PitchFX indicates that his average FB had average velocity of ~90 mph and one standard deviation above his average was 91.28 mph. So, it seems reasonable to suppose that he can throw that hard in a relief role (about 16% of his FB were faster than this last year).
So, now we will try to find relief pitchers who matches Gee's pitching profile.
I sorted all relief pitchers who pitched from 2005-14 who threw at least 100 IP over that span. That left us with 456 pitchers. We then limited the selection to pitchers with an average FB velocity betweem 90 and 92.3 (2 SD over Gee's average as a SP) who threw a changeup, a curveball, and a slider with a frequency between 3% and 20% for each offspeed offering and no cutters, knuckleballs or splitters. This led us to 7 pitchers:
Name | FB% | FBv | SL% | SLv | CT% | CTv | CB% | CBv | CH% | CHv | SF% | SFv | playerid |
Geoff Geary | 0.64 | 91 | 0.159 | 82.8 | 0 | 88 | 0.15 | 79.5 | 0.05 | 83.7 | 1813 | ||
Edgar Gonzalez | 0.585 | 90.2 | 0.163 | 81.4 | 0.03 | 85 | 0.107 | 74.9 | 0.116 | 78.1 | 1727 | ||
Willie Eyre | 0.63 | 91.4 | 0.176 | 83.3 | 0.038 | 90.1 | 0.08 | 77.4 | 0.056 | 83.4 | 0.021 | 83.3 | 2078 |
Ruddy Lugo | 0.568 | 91.8 | 0.149 | 85 | 0.179 | 75.8 | 0.104 | 84.8 | 0.001 | 84 | 2710 | ||
Cesar Ramos | 0.6 | 91.1 | 0.146 | 83.2 | 0.114 | 71.2 | 0.14 | 84.4 | 3357 | ||||
Francisco Rodriguez | 0.558 | 92.1 | 0.145 | 81.1 | 0.141 | 77.7 | 0.157 | 83.4 | 1642 | ||||
Zach Miner | 0.637 | 92.3 | 0.135 | 83.4 | 0.045 | 74.2 | 0.184 | 81.3 | 3193 |
In total, 5 of the above pitchers had roughly replacement level production while K-Rod and Zach Miner produced real major leaguer seasons. In fact, Zach Miner seems to be the best comparison as he made a number of starts as a spot starter during his time in the pen. In total, these 7 pitchers produced 29 major league seasons pitching within the parameters and averaged .3 fWAR. Here is a breakdown of their outcomes:
- 10 seasons resulted in a negative fWAR
- 12 seasons produced .1 to .5 fWAR
- 3 seasons produced .6 to 1.0 fWAR
- 4 seasons produced 1.1 to 1.5 fWAR
So, in total, we shouldn't expect much from Gee were he to move to the pen. If we consider Zach Miner, his seemingly closest comparable, we might expect a .5 WAR season, which while not horrible from the bullpen is not exactly sexy. But still having Gee in the bullpen does have some upside as he certainly could give us greater SP depth should injuries occur without forcing the FO to make any promotions. Given this modest projection and his value as a flexible SP option, the worst return that would be beneficial to the roster, given Gee's value, would be a projected .5 to 1 WAR relief option with 1 to 2 years of service left or lower projections and more control. Given the interest from the Giants, Rangers, Padres, and Rockies some reasonable trade options might be Nick Vincent (Padres) or Rex Brothers (Rockies). Otherwise, it will probably end up being a salary dump for prospects.