FanPost

AAOP: Sustaining Excellence!

What do greedy Met fans want now? Sustained Excellence! We aren’t satisfied with just one year of enjoyable baseball….we’re thinking dynasty. If the Cubs can be terrible for a century, why can’t the Mets be great for a few years?

Where are we now? Face it; the 2015 Royals played better baseball when it mattered. They hit, they catch, they throw, and they run. They don’t make errors! The Mets’ were close to a world championship but the errors were like a trip to the dentist and contributed to the Mets spitting this opportunity away. With the current pitching staff, the Mets are a playoff contender for at least the next 5 years. To win the World Series the Mets need to reduce/eliminate the errors and improve the late inning pitching.

Where do we go from here? The Mets have some brutal contracts to deal with. Cuddyer and Wright come to mind. Fortunately Cuddyer’s terminates at the end of 2016. Wright appears done as a player, except for cashing checks until 2020. I would sign for Wright playing 100 games split between first and third for 2016.

The coming cash crunch: As these young pitchers mature, they will want to get paid. To retain deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and Wheeler is going to add $75 million a year to the payroll. Fred, you got that?

Help from the farm? The Met farm system is starting to look empty with the graduation of Matz and Conforto. The remaining highly rated "farmers" are A. Rosario, B. Nimmo, D. Smith, G. Cecchini, with Nimmo the highest rated at 71 (MLB.com). This is not a dynasty producing farm system. The farm lacks superstars. Winning baseball means you don’t get the top draft picks which will further erode the farm system. The Mets must get aggressive in the international market, where cash is king.

Notable Free Agent Departures:

Murphy, Uribe, Parnell, Johnson, Clippard, O’Flaherty, Carlyle, Recker, Young, Tejada.

Trade #1: Matt Harvey to the Red Sox for Xander Bogaerts and 19 year old third baseman of the future, Rafael Devers (single A during 2015). Xander had a great 2015 season, but his first couple years in the majors have been disappointing which is why the Sox have to throw in Devers. Why the Red Sox make this trade: The Sox need an ace in the worst way. While there are several top-shelf, free agent pitchers available (Greinke, Zimmerman and Price), there are also a lot of teams looking for top-shelf pitching (Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals to mention a few). Matt is from New London, CT which is actually closer to Fenway than Yankee Stadium…Maybe Matt was a Sox fan growing up? The Red Sox are a big money team so maybe they feel they can resign Harvey, when the time comes. Harvey can anchor their young rotation. In an effort to get this trade done, the Mets will include a Garmin navigation system which should help Matt get to practices on time. The Red Sox have capable Deven Marrero and Brock Holt available to play shortstop. However, if the Red Sox won’t swap… Why the Mets make this trade: All reports indicate that Harvey is not going to resign with the Mets. Get something for him before he leaves and the Mets get nothing but a pick. The Mets middle infield defense is sure handed, but rather unremarkable and in general, the entire team lacks speed. Xander improves the team in both areas.

If the Sox waffle, Seager of the Dodgers might also warrant a phone call. The Dodgers appear to be losing Greinke, so they will need another star pitcher to compete with the Giants. The Dodgers have Ozvaldo Martinez as a potential replacement at short.

Trade # 2: The Mets send pitcher Rafael Montero to the Pittsburgh Pirates for minor league outfielder Austin Meadows. McGuire is the third rated prospect in the Pirate system but is still two years from making the Mets, which is perfect because by then d’Arnaud will be looking for a salary bump. Meadows is the Pirates 2nd rated prospect. Why the Pirates make this trade: The Pirates need pitching and Montero has a chance to be a #2 starter. The Pirates are overstocked with young outfielders (Marte, McCutchen, Polanco, to mention a few)so his only value is to be traded. Why the Mets make this trade: The Mets don’t really have starts for Rafael once Wheeler returns. Meadows is immediately capable of replacing Kirk.

Trade # 3: Lucas Duda will be traded to the Houston Astros for outfielder Daz Cameron and either Michael Feliz or Francis Martes. Why the Astros make this trade: The Astros played Chris Carter at first (WAR of 0.9) and are in a win-now mode. Why the Mets make this trade: FanGraphs has Lucas Duda as one of the ten best first basemen in the majors. I too was stunned, so the Mets sell high. Lucas’ hitting is streaky, but can carry a team when he is on. Duda’s defence is "meh", to be polite (think World Series). Cameron looks like a future centerfielder with speed while possessing a high average bat. Unfortunately he will be in the minors until at least 2018. In addition, the Mets need at-bats for Cuddyer and probably Wright, neither contract is tradable. That’s too much payroll for that kind of production but that’s what we call a bad signing, Mr Cuddyer.

Trade #4: Matt Reynolds (Mets #7 rated prospect) and Brandon Nimmo (#71 MLB’s rated prospect), will be traded to the Rockies for Jonathan Gray (#28 MLB’s rated prospect). Why the Rockies make this trade: The future success of the Rockies will be dependent on having multiple talented minor leaguers mature simultaneously. This trade allows the Rockies time to accumulate and develop the cluster of minor league players necessary to contend. Reynolds can play short, third and even second. Nimmo is just about ready for the majors and would combine with Dickerson to form a promising outfield for the Rockies. Why the Mets make this trade: This trade represents a buy low opportunity and a chance to stockpile high ceiling pitchers. Jonathan Gray had a disappointing 2015 season eventually being shut down in September. Reynolds appears to have major league talent but is blocked by the likes of Rosario, Cecchini, Wright, Flores and our new star shortstop (Bogaerts, or Seager).

Trade #5: The Mets will send Juan Lagaras to the Rangers for Nomar Mazara. Why the Rangers make this trade: The Rangers have a weak outfield as evidenced by their playing of Delino Deshields during 2015. Lagaras is coming off a disappointing year but his 2014 gold glove and offensive numbers should allow Rangers to dramatically improve their outfield. Why the Mets make this trade: The Mets simply can’t afford $2.5mil.for a backup outfielder. Mazara should make the team out of spring training as he is a toolsy outfielder who can play all three outfield positions while batting better than Captain Kirk.

Signing #1: The Mets sign Yoenis Cespedes to a 6-year deal for $115 million ($25 mil. in years 1-3, 20 mil. in year 4 and $10 mil in years 5 and 6). The declining salary should make him attractive as a DH (no bonehead plays possible), later in the contract term. Also the declining salary should leave some money on the table to retain the starting staff when they need to get paid. Why the Mets make this move? Yoenis brings a serious middle of the order bat. I cannot possibly endure another offense like I saw in June 2015.

An alternative might be Jason Heyward, but I am not sure if he is a legitimate centerfield.

Signing #2: Tony Sipp - A free agent left handed pitcher from the Houston Astros. Why the Mets make this move? The Mets bullpen was roughly major league average and that is with one of the best closers (Familia) in the game. One should conclude that the remainder of the Met relief pitchers were pretty poor. The Met starters are mostly right handed so throwing a lefty at the opposing line-up should frustrate line-ups. Sipp had a very good season, so I’m offering $2.5 mil. for one year.

Signing #3: Jerry Blevins - A free agent lefty who pitched five inning for the Mets during 2015 before breaking his arm. Only offering him $1.5 mil., which is pretty generous considering the guy stole Met money last year. Why the Mets make this move? Blevins was an effective bullpen arm before his injuries. The bullpen needs competent lefties as the starting staff is mostly righties.

Signing #4: Roberto Colon - Why the Mets make this move? The Mets tried to trade Colon for two seasons and no one wants him. I’ll take him on a one-year deal for $7.5 mil. He’s a bargain!

The 2016 Mets Roster

The Mets 2016 Starting Pitching: The starters are deGrom, Syndergaard, Niese, Matz Colon and mid-season Wheeler. These starters are a bargain at $19 million.

The Mets 2016 Infield:

First Base: Cuddyer, and Wright (ugh $32.5 mill.)

Second Base: Flores, Herrara

Shortstop: (One of Bogaerts or, Seager)

Third: Wright, Flores

Catching: d’Arnaud, Plawecki

All purpose: Campbell

This group will cost approximately $36.0 million

The Mets 2016 Outfield:

Cespedes, $25.0 (6 years front loaded, $115 mil)

Granderson 16.0

Ceciliani 0.5

Nieuwenhuis or Mazara 0.5 Damn, still spelling his name.

Conforto 0.5

Total $42.5

The Mets 2016 Relief Pitching:

Familia ®(arb. 1) $3.3

Robles ®(arb.1) 0.5

Edgin (L) 0.6

Reed ® 5.7 Ouch.

Sipp (L) 2.5

Blevins (L) 1.5 ($2.4 Mill for 2015)

Gilmartin (L) 0.5

Total $14.6

Mejia arrives in August.

The proposed 2016 Major League payroll is roughly $113 mil. + minor league commitments gets us to the $120 mil. target.

The defence will be improved with the addition of Bogaerts and getting Cuddyer out of the outfield. Flores will be better defensively at second and third than an injured Wright and Murphy. The first base defence will remain problematic with Cuddyer and AWright. The middle relief is better with the addition of Sipp and a full year of Reed, Edgin and Blevins. Robles and Gilmartin should continue to develop. Mejia returns in mid summer. The minor league system has been strengthened with some additional talent. The roster has been positioned so that some of the starting pitchers can contribute to building of this dynasty.


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