FanPost

Comparison of Nats/Mets Starters FB Velocities

(This should be a FanShot but the formatting with either the quote or link made it pretty much unreadable.)

In this FanGraphs post comparing the Mets and Nats starts, Jeff Sullivan wrote "And then there’s this: 135 starting pitchers from last year have thrown at least 10 innings this year, and on average their fastballs are down half of one mile per hour. That’s typical, for April. Two Nationals starters, and their fastball velocity declines." Jeff Sullivan then listed Zimmerman and Fister decline. Since I was interested, I decided to look at the differences for both the Mets and Nats starting staff. While nothing is conclusive, the results are pretty good from a Mets side of things.

• Jordan Zimmermann, -1.7 mph

• Doug Fister, -1.6

• Max Scherzer, -0.3 mph

• Gio Gonzalez, -0.1

• Stephen Strasburg, -0.6 mph

• Bartolo Colon, -0.1

• Jacob deGrom, +0.4 mph

• Matt Harvey, -0.1

• Jon Niese, -0.2 mph

• Dillon Gee, 0.0

Some additional relevant notes from a Jeff Zimmerman post couple of years ago, "Some pitchers have made a living throwing slower, but generally the faster you throw the better you perform. As Mike Fast noted at the Hardball Times, starters expect their RA/9 innings to increase by ~0.25 for every 1 MPH decrease in fastball speed. The increase is ~0.40 RA/9 for relievers. Besides seeing an increase in ERA, the pitcher’s strike out rate decreases as their fastball speed goes down. So faster equals better for these purposes....As a general rule, one game of fastball speeds gives some useful information, but after 3 games a pitcher is generally throwing within 1 MPH of what they will average the rest of the season."

Just wanted to highlight another reason for early season optimism. Maybe the Nats aren't who we thought they were.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process.