FanPost

The Importance of Being Fastest

It's nearly here.

Not just the start of another baseball season - which is always welcome - but one that's supposed to mark a new winning era of New York Mets baseball after a too long drought.

The hype is substantial and the heat is on. The New York media is split on which local baseball club is better. Tickets sales are up. But it's a long, glorious six months before we'll learn if this club is for real.

Or will it?

While Oscar Wilde's classic was subtitled "A Trivial Comedy for Serious People" the Mets early season schedule might be called "A Critical Stretch for Serious Contenders."

A fast start is always a nice way to begin the year but in 2015 it might be the only path to contention. Sure there's plenty of time to make up for a slow start in the remaining five months of the season. But the Mets path to the playoffs seems highly unlikely should they fail to finish ahead of the Marlins. And that requires them to do at least two things:

  • "Beat up" the Marlins, Braves & Phillies
  • Substantially improve upon their dismal 2014 performance vs. the Nats

Let's start with the "beat up" part.

Last season the Mets were 10-9 vs. the Braves, 13-6 vs. the Phils and 11-8 vs. the Marlins for an outstanding 34-23/.596 clip.

Yet they still only won 79 games.

Opponent

W

L

Pct.

Win Pace

All NL East

38

38

.500

81

NLeast-ers

34

23

.596

96.5

Nats

4

15

.210

34.1

The Rest

41

45

.477

77

Total

79

83

.488

As we know, the Braves & Phils are projected to be substantially worse than they were in 2014 while most project the Marlins to be significantly improved - even if that's generally not accepted on these pages.

It's hard to imagine the Mets picking up ten games on last season's win total if they don't match their performance against those three clubs. And guess who thirteen of the season's first sixteen games come against? If you guessed the Marlins, Braves and Phils you win this week's Captain Obvious Award.

Not only do 13 of the first 16 games come against the Braves, Marlins & Phils but so do 16 of the first 22! Matching last seasons win rate versus those clubs will require a 10-6 start (technically 9.5 - 6.5) in those 16 games and 13-9 in the first 22.

How about the Nats?

Yours truly will be sitting 2nd row next to the Mets dugout for the Return of the Dark Knight in the final game of the season opening series. And games 23-26 feature the NL East favorites visiting Queens for four games. So by the end of the month, seven of the first twenty-six games are against the club against whom they flailed to a 4 -15 record in 2014. Opening with a similar rate of futility would leave only a dozen more chances to balance the ledger.

And balance that ledger they must. Even if the Mets manage to match last season's .600 clip vs. the three "NLeast-ers", they're only treading water vs. that 79 win campaign. They need to pick up roughly 10 wins from last season to reach the post-season promised land

Another 4-15 performance vs. the Nats and 38-38 divisional record would require the Mets to go 51 - 35 vs. "The Rest" - that's a sturdy .593 clip. Not impossible but that's some heavy lifting. Four of the ten NL Central/West clubs made the 2014 post-season. Strength of schedule very likely increases once we leave the cocoon of the NL East.

But if our heroes can get to 9-10 vs. the Nats and match last season's win total vs. the rest of the NL East they'll be 43-33 before venturing westward where a 46-40 or .535 run could net the magic 89 wins.

NL East

NL Central

NL West

AL

Total

April

20

3

23

May

12

14

2

28

June

6

7

10

4

27

July

4

5

16

25

August

10

3

7

8

28

Sept/Oct

24

4

3

31

76

33

33

20

162

So by May 10th we'll know something - or maybe the picture will be muddled . . . Pending the whims of Mother Nature, the Mets will have logged 20% of their overall schedule but 36% of their results vs. the NL East will be recorded for everlasting history.

A bad start is going to put a ton of pressure on the remaining games against those clubs.

Let's hope any Wilde comedy we're subjected to in the opening weeks is focused on the opposing nine.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process.