For Mets fans, Terry Collins has been a frequent target of ire and frustration. Collins, the 20th manager in team history, was hired in November 2010 to replace Jerry Manuel. In Collins’s first four seasons at the helm, the Mets have averaged 76 wins and have failed to make a playoff appearance.
While Collins led the club to a second-place finish in 2014 and a hot start this year, he continues to garner considerable criticism. The skipper provides a steady demeanor and a veteran leadership presence for the club, but he often makes questionable in-game decisions. So far in 2015, the Mets’ well-above-.500 record suggests that Collins has minimized his mistakes and become a more sound tactician. A closer look at his performance reveals that, while some old habits die hard, Collins may have made some improvements as a manager.
Lineup Issues
Like most managers, Collins exhibits several tendencies that have been heavily scrutinized. Among his most glaring weaknesses is his penchant for perplexing lineup construction. While statistical analysis has found that lineup configuration has a modest but often overstated effect on runs scored, Collins’s choices leave room for second-guessing.
In the season opener, the skipper’s placement of David Wright in the two-hole raised eyebrows. Not only did the batting order contradict traditional baseball wisdom, but it was also inconsistent with Wright’s reputation. From 2012 to 2014, Wright hit third in 97 percent of his games started. The Mets’ captain remained in the third slot for most of spring training, which made the Opening Day lineup even more unexpected.
Also confounding was Curtis Granderson’s presence in the leadoff spot, which most expected Juan Lagares to fill. In late February, Collins had expressed his desire for Lagares to earn the leadoff job, strongly implying that the Gold Glover was the organization’s preferred candidate. However, by the time the season began, Lagares was placed in the six-hole. Though Granderson’s improved plate discipline made the move defensible, the lineup decision highlighted one of Collins’s most frustrating traits.
Bias Toward Veterans
Collins’s Opening Day lineup is also indicative of how he overvalues veteran talent. Among the most common complaints about Collins is that he does not give prospects time to develop, instead favoring less-talented veterans and lifelong backups. Just as Art Howe’s "we battled" became a familiar post-game refrain, Collins has nearly trademarked "we’ve got to get him going" as justification for overusing journeymen.
Perhaps the most egregious example of his preference for veterans occurred early last season, when Chris Young began receiving the majority of playing time in center field. Despite Juan Lagares’s tremendous defensive abilities and offensive potential, Collins seemed content with him riding the pine. Following a "Free Lagares" Twitter campaign and continued glimpses of his nascent hitting talent, Lagares finally began to see more regular action.
This season, the skipper’s allegiance to more established players has been slightly less apparent, with rookie Kevin Plawecki receiving consistent playing time and second base prospect Dilson Herrera starting all but two games after his late-April call-up and before his finger injury.
Overall, Collins has been even-handed with his roster, with a few notable exceptions. For instance, when he twice referred to Ruben Tejada as a "good player" following a strong performance against the Phillies, Collins seemed to be genuinely overrating Tejada’s abilities, rather than simply boosting his confidence. In the skipper’s defense, he has an obligation to spell regulars and to insert reserves into the lineup based on favorable matchups. Moreover, as the manager of an offensively challenged ball club, his desire for production from unexpected sources is understandable.
Aside from a few games in which he started Tejada, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Anthony Recker at the same time, Collins hasn’t relied too heavily on his underperforming bench. Because he has more effectively balanced his use of role players and regulars, Collins deserves credit for an improved handling of the roster, particularly in the face of mounting personnel losses to the disabled list.
Bullpen Management
In addition to his loyalty to backups, Collins’s management of the pitching staff also tends to draw backlash. In his time in Flushing, the manager has developed a reputation for overusing his relief corps and pulling starters at improper times. The Mets’ bullpen has mostly been a strength in 2015, with the team’s relievers posting a 2.52 ERA in 100 innings pitched. Early injuries to Jerry Blevins, Vic Black, Josh Edgin, and Bobby Parnell left the pen depleted, as did Jenrry Mejia’s suspension for PED use. Despite these losses, the emergence of Jeurys Familia as a shutdown closer, and solid contributions from Carlos Torres, Sean Gilmartin, and Alex Torres have eased concerns about the unit’s effectiveness.
Collins has relied heavily on Torres, Torres, and Familia, with the three pitchers accounting for nearly half of the team’s total relief innings. Fortunately, Mets starters have averaged 6.26 innings per start, leaving the team’s bullpen with one of the lightest workloads in the majors. Since 2011, Collins’s reliance on certain arms in high-leverage situations has led to fatigue, with lefty specialists Tim Byrdak and Scott Rice among the most prominent casualties. If the skipper wishes to avoid overusing his more well-established relievers, he will need to distribute the workload more evenly and show faith in unproven talents like Hansel Robles and Erik Goeddel. Without more confidence in the club’s middle relief, Collins may see diminished results from his pen.
Conclusion
Overall, Terry Collins has done a respectable job in the first quarter of 2015. According to Pythagorean expectations—specifically, third order winning percentage—the Mets should have a record identical to what it actually is. Collins is far from the only reason the Amazins have exceeded expectations this season, but he deserves credit for leading the team to a relatively fast start.
Those who follow the team closely are highly familiar with the manager’s flaws, and may be more inclined to believe he is wholly incompetent. Considering the anemic offense he has to work with, however, one could argue that Collins’s performance this year has been commendable. From effectively limiting Matt Harvey’s pitch counts to winning nine of his 12 replay challenges, Collins has excelled at the more subtle aspects of managing. He will never be the game’s sharpest strategic mind, and his greatest value comes from the respect he commands from his players. Still, it would be unfair to dismiss Collins’s positive contributions.
As the season progresses, we may see whether he has truly improved or whether his early-season success is simply a mirage.