Daniel Murphy has been disappointing through the first quarter of 2015, hitting just .245/.299/.371 with a 83 wRC+. While this hardly makes him unique among New York Mets hitters, the unfailingly consistent infielder is well below his career .290/.333/.419 and 108 wRC+.
G |
FWAR |
OPS |
BB% |
K% |
CONTACT% |
|
2009 |
155 |
1.0 |
.740 |
6.80% |
12.40% |
87.90% |
2011 |
109 |
2.8 |
.800 |
5.70% |
9.90% |
89.80% |
2012 |
156 |
1.3 |
.735 |
5.90% |
13.40% |
88.30% |
2013 |
161 |
3.0 |
.734 |
4.60% |
13.60% |
88.50% |
2014 |
143 |
2.8 |
.735 |
6.10% |
13.40% |
88.20% |
Through Thursday's game against the Cardinals, Murphy has not only matched his career averages in several of the above categories, but has actually had a slightly higher walk rate (6.7 percent) and contact percentage (91.3 percent), while cutting down on his strikeouts (7.3 percent). Unfortunately, and slightly surprisingly, this has not resulted in improved production, or even production that has matched his career averages. Murphy is nearly fifty points below his career batting average and seventy-five points below his career OPS.
So, how is this happening? Murphy's .248 BABIP, compared to a .317 mark for his career, suggests he has been the victim of some poor luck Not to be ignored, however, is Murphy's performance against the pitches he sees most frequently. Below you can see how Murphy fared from 2008 through 2014 by pitch type.
Pitch Type |
Frequency |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
BABIP |
Four-seam |
35.3% |
.297 |
.361 |
.444 |
.324 |
Sinker |
25.0% |
.300 |
.346 |
.418 |
.321 |
Slider |
11.2% |
.253 |
.277 |
.383 |
.319 |
Changeup |
10.6% |
.298 |
.312 |
.410 |
.323 |
Curveball |
8.9% |
.285 |
.297 |
.391 |
.345 |
Cutter |
6.0% |
.332 |
.380 |
.500 |
.374 |
Splitter |
2.6% |
.204 |
.237 |
.323 |
.224 |
Slow Curve |
0.3% |
.000 |
.000 |
.000 |
.000 |
Knuckleball |
0.2% |
.500 |
.667 |
.500 |
.500 |
In each season of his career, Murphy has seen four-seam fastballs more than any other pitch and hit his best against them. And in 2015, as you can see below, Murphy is hitting four-seam fastballs at even better rate than normal.
Pitch Type |
Frequency |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
BABIP |
Four-seam |
29.8% |
.382 |
.432 |
.677 |
.379 |
Sinker |
27.6% |
.286 |
.333 |
.405 | .282 |
Changeup |
12.0% |
.125 | .192 | .167 | .130 |
Slider |
10.7% |
.333 | .333 | .476 | .368 |
Curveball |
9.9% |
.077 | .077 | .077 | .091 |
Cutter |
8.5% |
.083 | .083 | .083 | .091 |
Splitter |
1.6% |
.000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
Now, considering that four-seamers are the pitch he sees most frequently in 2015, you would think this outstanding production would equate to Murphy's numbers being the best of his career. But that has not been the case. So what has led to Murphy's slow offensive start?
Against all other pitches, Murphy is just 24-for-117 (.205/.238/.291). Specifically, with the two pitches he has seen second (sinkers) and third (changeups) most frequently, Murphy is below his career averages. For the season, Murphy has seen sinkers and changeups a combined 39.6% of the time, and he is hitting just .227/.282/.318. In his career, Murphy has seen those two pitches a combined 35.6 percent of the time and has hit .300/.335/.416.
What has been the biggest difference with sinkers and changeups? Before this year, when pitchers left those pitches up in the zone, Murphy took advantage of the mistakes.
This year, however, Murphy is struggling to do that. Of course it is a small sample size, but he has yet to capitalize when pitchers leave those two pitches up in the zone.
Overall, it's been a struggle for Murphy this year. Entering Thursday's game against the Cardinals, he was mired in a 4-for-23 slump. That came on the heels of a 17-game stretch from April 26 through May 14 in which he hit .355/.385/.484. A quarter of the season is still a small sample size. At the moment, Murphy is nearly 200 points below his career OPS against sinkers and changeups, but history suggests an improvement is likely.