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Mets and Rays match up (pretty) well for a trade.

At the all-star break, it looks like the Mets' biggest need going forward will be pitching. Quick rehash: Harvey is done for the year and Thor and Matz are question marks. In house reinforcements are not very attractive- Wheeler is still MIA and none of the AAA fodder, including Verrett, inspire any confidence.

The Rays are said to be dangling several of their starters--Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi--and so I thought I'd open up a discussion of what it would take to swing a deal with them. Tampa may have the most attractive options on the market as their combination of young, cost-controlled starters (with intriguing peripherals) may make for a more appealing (and affordable match) for the Mets than a rental like Rich Hill.

First, the Rays pitchers: the two most intriguing options are Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly. Odorizzi had a really season last year and his K% and K/BB are still strong. He's given up a few more walks and a LOT more Home Runs but overall his batted ball data suggests that he might be better; he's giving up more hard hits but less line drives, and his ground-ball rate is actually up too. Smyly is having an odd season, striking out tons of batters and showing good control (both things he's done in the past) but serving up tons of HRs (20 so far this year in just 100 IP), fourth worst in baseball in HR/9 IP. His FIP and SIERA are both way lower than this ERA and he's not giving up harder hit balls this year, and his LOB% (bottom 5 in MLB) also suggests bad luck. The Rays probably know this of course, but again, their high-risk profile may be hiding some upside (See: Ian Kennedy).

For the Mets, the goal will be to acquire starting pitching without giving up Amed Rosario or Michael Conforto. Tampa doesn't really 'need' Rosario anyway, since they have a bunch of intriguing middle infielders at the major and minor league level (Wily Adames, Brad Miller, et al).

So who could the Rays conceivably like among Mets trade chips?

Kevin Plawecki is a good starting point. His value has surely tanked quite a bit after a very underwhelming 400 PA in the majors (.570 OPS). That said, he's "only" 25, has looked much better in a (brief) sample size with Las Vegas, and could still conceivably blossom into an everyday catcher in the mold of Paul Lo Duca (decent hitting, gap power). Most importantly, the Rays' catching situation is really awful and their catcher's OBP is under. 260 (!!!). BBRef likes Casali's defense, FG doesn't. Either way, you'd have to think they're looking for a potential upgrade.

Dominic Smith is another player who the Mets could offer, although the Rays have a (better?) similar prospect in Jake Bauers. But there's always the DH, and the Rays don't have great options long-term to fill these offense-heavy positions. The attrition rate of prospects also figures to come into play; their odds of finding a bat to anchor the offense increases the more, well, bats they have.

Sean Gilmartin hasn't gotten much attention this year, and his brief stint with the Mets wasn't great, but considering the run environment, he's been Las Vegas' best starting pitcher. Since trading Jake McGee the Rays have had trouble finding a useful (second) lefty in the bullpen. He's not a major piece in a trade, but he's also not nothing.

The Rays have also shown a fun flexibility in finding positions for players and also with trades. And bad luck and injuries mean that any one of Dilson Herrera, Gavin Cecchini or Brandon Nimmo could appeal to them as well.

All that said, it seems like a package of 1-2 of the above players with prospects from lower down in the Mets system could get a deal done.

Smyly, I would guess, costs less because of his poor numbers. The Mets could offer something like Plawecki, Gilmartin and a flyer or two (Jhoan Urena? Chris Flexen?) and that feels like the foundations of a deal.

Odorizzi will cost more and probably would require a top-100 prospect (or equivalent), so the Mets would probably have to offer Smith and/or Herrera in addition to the above, if not more. I think some writers are underestimating the quality of the Mets upper-level hitting prospects, but it is a little difficult to imagine them swinging a deal if the Rays, or anyone else, demand pitching in return. The Mets may have 'too many' secondary pieces and not enough trade-able blue chips if there is too high a demand for this caliber of pitcher.

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