Amazin' Avenue

Tuesday Applesauce

2008-12-02T15:46:39Z

Nick Evans strained his right quad playing winter ball in Puerto Rico and has been sent home for rehab. Reports indicate that Evans was a sad little puppy without his best bud Dan Murphy by his side, so the injury comes as something of a mixed blessing for him.

Mets Tailgate likes Bob Howry, now more than ever in light of the Cubs declining to offer him arbitration last night.

The Mets are pretty interested in Brian Fuentes, and reportedly plan to meet with him in Las Vegas next week. Signing Fuentes would cost the Mets their first round pick next June, which should certainly give them some pause.

At MetsGeek, Mike Newman looks at some hypothetical trades and James Kannengieser makes a case for some former Mets who will appear on this year's Hall of Fame ballot.

Bob Klapisch doesn't think the Mets got their money's worth out of Pedro Martinez, arguing that the $53 million they gave him over four years included considerable time on the disabled list, a disappointing 2008, and nothing closer to a World Championship than falling in seven games to the Cardinals in the 2006 NLCS.

At RotoGraphs, Peter Bendix looks at Johan Santana from a fantasy point-of-view, and concludes that he is good, but not that good.

At FanGraphs Eric Seidman evaluates Carlos Beltran and figures that the Mets could reasonably pay him $10 million more per season and still get their money's worth.

Also at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron analyzes Aaron Heilman's candidacy for the starting rotation.

Speaking of FanGraphs, they're now carrying wOBA for every player/year in history. Awesome.

At Beyond the Boxscore, R.J. Anderson crunches some SQL in comparing Barry Bonds's and Ted Williams's astonishing offensive accomplishments.

Ted Rogers, telecom magnate and Blue Jays principal owner, died last night of congestive heart failure.

Team-By-Team Arbitration Decisions

2008-12-01T22:55:20Z

[Updated @ 11:18am: Astros, Reds, Phillies]: News of arbitration [non-]offers are trickling in, so whenever I hear something new I'll add it here. If you discover any on your own don't hesitate to include them in the comments, but be sure to provide a source. I'll update this list accordingly. I am only going to include Type A and Type B free agents, since the arbitration status of unranked players is inconsequential.

Players who were offered arbitration are listed in bold green (Type A) or green (Type B).
Players not offered arbitration are listed in bold red (Type A) or red (Type B).

Angels

Garret Anderson (MLB.com)
Jon Garland (MLB.com)
Darren Oliver (MLB.com)
Francisco Rodriguez (MLB.com)
Mark Teixeira (MLB.com)

Athletics

Alan Embree (MLB.com)
Frank Thomas (MLB.com)

Astros

Doug Brocail (MLB.com)
Mark Loretta (MLB.com)
Randy Wolf (MLB.com)

Blue Jays

A.J. Burnett (MLB.com)
Gregg Zaun (MLB.com)

Braves

John Smoltz (MLB.com)

Brewers

Eric Gagne (MLB.com)
C.C. Sabathia (MLB.com)
Ben Sheets (MLB.com)
Brian Shouse (MLB.com)

Cardinals

Jason Isringhausen (MLB.com)
Braden Looper (MLB.com)
Russ Springer (MLB.com)

Cubs

Bobby Howry (MLB.com)
Kerry Wood (MLB.com)

Diamondbacks

Juan Cruz (MLB.com)
Adam Dunn (MLB.com)
Orlando Hudson (MLB.com)
Randy Johnson (MLB.com)
Brandon Lyon (MLB.com)

Dodgers

Joe Beimel (MLB.com)
Casey Blake (MLB.com)
Jeff Kent (MLB.com)
Derek Lowe (MLB.com)
Greg Maddux (MLB.com)
Brad Penny (MLB.com)
Manny Ramirez (MLB.com)

Mariners

Raul Ibanez (MLB.com)

Marlins

Luis Gonzalez (MLB.com)
Paul Lo Duca (MLB.com)
Arthur Rhodes (MLB.com)

Mets

Moises Alou (MLB.com)
Luis Ayala (MLB.com)
Oliver Perez (MLB.com)

Padres

Trevor Hoffman (MLB.com)

Phillies

Pat Burrell (MLB.com)
Jamie Moyer (MLB.com)
Rudy Seanez (MLB.com)

Rangers

Milton Bradley (MLB.com)

Reds

David Weathers (MLB.com)

Red Sox

Paul Byrd (MLB.com)
Jason Varitek (MLB.com)

Rockies

Brian Fuentes (MLB.com)

Royals

Mark Grudzielanek (MLB.com)

Tigers

Edgar Renteria (MLB.com)

Twins

Dennys Reyes (MLB.com)

White Sox

Orlando Cabrera

Yankees

Bobby Abreu (MLB.com)
Mike Mussina (MLB.com)
Andy Pettitte (MLB.com)
Ivan Rodriguez (MLB.com)

Mets Arbitration Decisions

2008-12-01T13:00:08Z

Midnight tonight is the deadline for teams to offer salary arbitration to their own free agents, of which the Mets have eleven:

Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Damion Easley
Tony Armas
Orlando Hernandez
Ricardo Rincon
Ramon Martinez
Matt Wise
Trot Nixon

Only three of these guys have been ranked by Elias: Oliver Perez is a Type A free agent; Luis Ayala and Moises Alou are both Type Bs. A quick free agent compensation primer: The upside to offering arbitration to a ranked player is clear: Should he sign elsewhere, the former team -- in this case, the Mets -- would receive either a first round pick AND a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds (Type A) or just the sandwich pick (Type B). There are circumstantial exceptions to the compensation for Type A players, because a team could conceivably sign more than one such player but, obviously, only has one first round draft pick to offer back to the player's original team. In such cases, the highest ranked Type A player signed is compensated for by the signing team's first round pick; the second highest ranked Type A the second round pick, etc. Of course, any team picking in the top half of the first round has their first round pick protected, so the musical draft picks begin with the signing team's second rounder instead.

The Mets will almost certainly offer arbitration to Perez, because there is no disincentive to do otherwise. Typically, the worst case scenario for offering a player arbitration is that he accepts and you didn't want him to. That is, you wanted him to sign elsewhere so you could collect the draft pick(s), and his accepting of arbitration would have negative implications on your team's plan for the subsequent year, either financially, roster-wise, or something else entirely. This actually happened in the winter following the 2002 season, when the Braves offered arbitration to both Greg Maddux and Kevin Millwood, expecting at least one of them to decline in favor of a multi-year deal elsewhere. Both players accepted their arbitration offers, and the Braves were forced to trade Millwood to the Phillies (for Johnny Estrada) to ease the burden on their 2003 payroll. The Mets have no such concerns about Perez, because they could afford any one-year arbitration award should he fail to find a deal to his liking on the open market.

I think the Mets should probably offer arbitration to Ayala, too. If he doesn't sign with someone else, the Mets will be on the hook for something like $2 million (just a guess) for next year. Ayala was pretty terrible last year, but the Mets flushed $1 million down the toilet on Matt Wise, so even the worst case for Ayala next year would hardly cripple the Mets financially. Moises Alou is sort of interesting, but the Mets won't offer him arbitration. It's not clear what Alou could be awarded in arbitration, considering he missed almost all of 2008. The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that arbitration-eligible players who are not yet eligible for free agency can be awarded no less than 20% below what they made in the previous season (certain exceptions notwithstanding), but that rule doesn't apply to players, like Alou, who aren't covered under the reserve system [Article XX(A) of the CBA]. Would it be worth extending an arbitration offer to Alou if he'd expect, say, a $3 million arbitration reward? Who knows.

Nobody else on the above list is going to get an offer from the Mets. Prior to 2007, that passivity would have precluded the player from resigning with his former team. That's no longer the case, so the Mets could still negotiate with Pedro Martinez et al without having to guarantee any of them the right to arbitration.

Of course, 29 other teams also have to make arbitration decisions on their own free agents, which is where things will really start to get interesting. There has been very little player movement this offseason, but once the compensation-related incentives/disincentives become known we should see things open up a bit. Will signing Adam Dunn or Ben Sheets make more sense if they won't cost any draft picks than, say, Manny Ramirez or Derek Lowe plus draft picks to boot? By Tuesday morning, the risks of signing another team's players will be much clearer.

Happy Thanksgiving

2008-11-27T16:23:54Z

Things I am thankful for on this, my favorite holiday of the year:

Carlos Beltran
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Johan Santana
Moving to a brand-spanking-new stadium in 2009 (that hopefully won't be called Taxpayer Field)
Luis Castillo's balky knees
Moises Alou's pee hands
Eddie Kunz's ruff outings
Daniel Murphy's Irish hammer
Jerry Manuel's post-game interviews
Carlos Delgado's resurgence
Endy's Chavez's glove
Fernando Martinez's potential
The Mets' big fat wallets

And last but certainly not least, the most intelligent, well-informed, evidence-demanding, status quo-rejecting, self-policing, and otherwise freaking brilliant Mets community on the internet, without whom I certainly couldn't fathom doing this every day. I raise a giant turkey leg to you all!

Mets Batter VORP By Decade

2008-11-26T13:00:06Z

I'm having a difficult time remembering a more excruciatingly slow offseason than this one. Not only are the rumors of bottom-shelf sexiness, but they're all so embarrassingly off-base that a vast sea of internet sites are losing credibility by the hour. Not this one, though, because we set the bar so impossibly close to the ground as to stifle any potential credibility demerits.

So until something worthwhile comes along, let's kill some time on a pre-holiday Wednesday by poring over some historical Baseball Prospectus data. I ran through Mets batter VORP by decade just to see who the team leaders were during different eras of the franchise's history. A lot of these guys you could have probably guessed, but it's neat to see how everyone stacks up overall.

NAME	1960's VORP	YEARS
Ron Hunt	92.3	4
Cleon Jones	69.9	6
Ken Boswell	28.0	3
Tommy Davis	27.8	1
Ron Swoboda	25.5	5
Art Shamsky	25.4	2
Bob Johnson	25.0	1
Frank Thomas	22.5	3
Bud Harrelson	22.4	5
Richie Ashburn	21.8	1

Keep in mind that these figures are aggregates for the entire decade. That 135 games played by Richie Ashburn in 1962 were enough to place him on the top ten list for the eight years the Mets existed in the sixties should tell you all you need to know about the state of their offense back then. Until recently, the Mets have always been heavy on pitching and light on hitting, but this is pretty ridiculous. Ron Hunt and Cleon Jones do alright for themselves here, but the rest is just a disaster. Bud Harrelson played three full seasons and parts of two others and he just barely cracks the list.

NAME	1970's VORP	YEARS
Rusty Staub	97.2	4
Bud Harrelson	94.5	8
Lee Mazzilli	75.0	4
Wayne Garrett	71.6	7
John Milner	70.8	7
Felix Millan	68.8	5
Tommie Agee	62.0	3
Ed Kranepool	58.7	10
Steve Henderson	58.6	3
Cleon Jones	54.5	6

The seventies really weren't much better than the sixties, even with two additional years to work with. Bud Harrelson has eight years represented here; Ed Kranepool has the full ten. Le Grand Orange was only in town from 1972 thru 1975, but two of those were good years and the other two were terrific ones. Lee Mazzilli had the highest single-season VORP of the decade with his 46.8 in 1979, with a comfortable lead over the 36.4 Cleon Jones notched in 1971. Only Staub and Tommy Ageee averaged better than two wins above replacement per season. It was a less offensive era to be sure, but even within that context the Mets were pretty pathetic.

NAME	1980's VORP	YEARS
Darryl Strawberry	253.9	7
Keith Hernandez	181.6	7
Howard Johnson	164.3	5
Mookie Wilson	122.3	10
Lenny Dykstra	93.4	5
Kevin McReynolds	92.2	3
Wally Backman	90.3	9
Gary Carter	82.4	5
Tim Teufel	51.2	4
Dave Magadan	43.3	4

Cocaine + glam rock = more offense! Lots of big names here, including three of the half-dozen-or-so best hitters the Mets have ever had. I've always had a soft spot for Kevin McReynolds, and I don't think he gets enough credit for his production as a Met. He didn't have much of a personality and he was on the wrong end of the trade that sent future-MVP Kevin Mitchell to the Padres, but he was a very nice hitter for a few years and one of the two batting stances I can remember emulating as a little leaguer (the other was Lenny Dykstra).

Darryl Strawberry and Howard Johnson had five of the top ten VORP seasons of the eighties, with HoJo taking the single-season crown with 74.9 during his monster 1989 campaign: 36 homeruns, 41 stolen bases, 41 doubles, 77 walks. Tim Teufel actually had the tenth-best single-season of the decade with 37.9 VORP in 1987 when he hit .308/.398/.545 in 350 plate appearances.

NAME	1990's VORP	YEARS
John Olerud	153.2	3
Edgardo Alfonzo	121.0	5
Mike Piazza	120.6	2
Bobby Bonilla	111.9	5
Todd Hundley	91.4	9
Howard Johnson	90.5	4
Jeff Kent	79.8	5
Lance Johnson	71.5	2
Dave Magadan	67.9	3
Bernard Gilkey	59.2	3

Is it any wonder why John Olerud is my favorite Met of all time? His 70.4 VORP in 1998 was the best of the nineties when he hit .354/.447/.551 and somehow only finished 12th in MVP balloting. Of course, that same year Mark McGwire hit 70 homeruns and OPS-ed 1.222 and still lost the MVP to Sammy Sosa because Sosa's Cubs made the playoffs and Mac's Cardinals did not.

A lot of times I forget that Jeff Kent was with the Mets for so long. I always seem to mis-remember him playing here for a year or two before being shipped off for Carlos Baerga, but he actually stuck around for something like four full seasons. Johnson and Dave Magadan -- another one of my favorites -- make the return visit, as both also appeared on the eighties list.

NAME	2000's VORP	YEARS
David Wright	275.8	5
Mike Piazza	251.5	6
Jose Reyes	210.6	6
Carlos Beltran	194.6	4
Edgardo Alfonzo	136.7	3
Carlos Delgado	88.9	3
Cliff Floyd	77.5	4
Ty Wigginton	42.2	3
Mike Cameron	37.3	2
Paul Lo Duca	36.4	2

Ahh, the aughts. If you closed your eyes and tried to guess this list, you'd probably come up with half of it very easily and a few more without a whole lot more trouble. If you guessed Ty Wigginton and Paul Lo Duca on the first shot, you're either Kreskin, Alex Nelson, or both. These numbers include 2008 results, from which we get seasons by David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. Wright's decade-high and franchise-high mark of 81.1 VORP was set in 2007, though Edgardo Alfonzo's 76.9 in 2000 is just a shade behind.

You'll notice a stark contrast between the 2000's and basically all of the decades preceding it. The Mets have some of the franchise's best offensive players right now, so it should come as no surprise that four of the ten best single-season VORP marks have occurred in the past three seasons (Wright's 2007 and 2008; Jose Reyes's 2008; Carlos Beltran's 2006).

And just for kicks, here is the Mets all-time leaderboard.

NAME	VORP	YEARS
Mike Piazza	372.1	8
Darryl Strawberry	296.9	8
David Wright	275.8	5
Edgardo Alfonzo	257.7	8
Howard Johnson	254.8	9
Jose Reyes	210.6	6
Carlos Beltran	194.6	4
Keith Hernandez	181.6	7
John Olerud	153.2	3
Kevin McReynolds	134.4	6
Cleon Jones	124.4	12
Mookie Wilson	122.3	10
Rusty Staub	120.3	9
Lee Mazzilli	117.5	10
Bud Harrelson	116.9	13
Bobby Bonilla	111.9	5
Dave Magadan	111.2	7
Lenny Dykstra	93.4	5
Ron Hunt	92.3	4
Todd Hundley	91.4	9

To date, Mike Piazza leads all Mets hitters in career VORP by quite a bit, his 372.1 out-pacing Strawberry's 296.9 to the tune of more than seven wins. Wright is just a couple of decent seasons behind Piazza, though, so there could be a changing of the guard pretty soon. McReynolds at #10 is surprising, while Reyes and Beltran are both climbing this list quickly and furiously.

Tuesday Applesauce

2008-11-25T16:12:53Z

At MetsGeek, Alex Nelson looks at some things the Mets could learn from the Phillies' run to a world title.

At RotoGraphs, Brian Joura examines Carlos Beltran's power drop over the past couple of seasons and discusses its impact on fantasy ball. As with most content at RotoGraphs, this piece is geared towards fantasy managers, but it can be read almost in its entirety outside of that context.

DRays Bay writes a letter to Omar Minaya espousing all of Edwin Jackson's fine traits and why he'd be a good fit for the Mets. Plus, he feels really bad about the whole Scott Kazmir thing and wants to make it up to the Mets.

At his blog for Newsday, Ken Davidoff crunches some numbers on Mike Mussina and Jose Reyes.

Rob Neyer gives his take on Luis Castillo's contract in light of the second-baseman's recent commitment to getting in shape for 2009.

A member of Athletics Nation recently wrote this epic FanPost on Rickey Henderson, complete with newspaper and magazine clippings, ticket stubs, and what appear to be homemade collages. The bar has been set, people.

Red Reporter peers into the future of Aaron Harang. I don't see anything about him pitching for the Mets, so boo for me.

A judge has dismissed three counts in the government's perjury/obs-jus case against Barry Bonds. Not thrown out: The other eleven counts, ten of perjury and one of obstruction of justice. When reached for comment, Bonds said, "Three counts? The only count that matters is 762, biotch!"

Curt Schilling is headed for the Persian Gulf as part of the USO tour. I'll rail against the guy for being a blowhard and a whackjob, so I'll certainly tip my cap to him for doing something for the heroes.

At Cybermetrics, Cyril Morong wonders if Ryan Howard should strike out less, but he uses numbers and such so it's not really as sarcastic as it sounds.

Name That Mets Autograph

2008-11-24T16:27:24Z

Lazy Monday, short week, nothing interesting going on. The free agent market is moving at a snail's pace, with the Mets just barely dipping their toes in the water. Let's kill some time guessing another illegible Mets autograph! No cheating, now. No scouring autograph galleries on the internet somewhere.

Sunday Applesauce

2008-11-23T18:29:53Z

Mets Whatnots

The Mets are reportedly considering Trevor Hoffman for the closer spot next year. I've supported him to some extent this offseason as a cheaper alternative to Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes, and still feel that the Mets could do a whole lot worse. If we assume that the Padres won't offer Hoffman arbitration (they won't), he'll cost maybe $5 million on a one-year deal. I'd say he's not nearly the pitcher Rodriguez, Fuentes, or even Kerry Wood are, but he's also a lot better than some of the crap the Mets used at closer last year. My guess is that this leak is just canard floated by the Mets to keep the other free agent closers in line (via BBTF).

Mets Tailgate takes a quick look at Aaron Heilman's work as a pitcher in college and in the pros. Though, he does make an assertion that Heilman has never changed his arm angle, and we know of at least two times when he did just that.

News, Signings, Etc.

Chad Billingsley "fell on ice" outside his home, fracturing his leg in the process. He is expected to be in a cast for two weeks but should be ready to pitch in time for spring training.

Garret Anderson has switched his player representation from himself to Scott Boras. Anderson has posted sub-100 OPS+ marks in three of the past four seasons. As a corner outfielder. At this point in his career he looks like a fourth outfielder with the bat, and probably considerably worse than that with the glove.

Webstuffs

Baseball-Reference.com provides a list of all of the minor league free agent pitchers, sorted by strikeouts-per-nine. There's likely to be at least a handful of players there who could out-perform Luis Ayala next season.

Is 2008 the year of the buyer? Are baseball owners, like the rest of American consumers, weary of spending too much this holiday season?

Non-baseball

It's football Sunday, so go chat about the Jets at Gang Green Nation and the Giants at Big Blue View.

Raul Ibanez: What Am I Missing?

2008-11-21T19:52:56Z

Per Jayson Stark, the Mets are among a handful of teams who are interested in ::holds back vomit:: free agent left fielder Raul Ibanez. Why are so many teams so interested in Ibanez when he clearly isn't a very interesting player? One team official clues us in:

"Character. Proven run producer. In better shape than a lot of 25-year-olds. And he'll play hard every day, every game, every second he has the uniform on."

That quote didn't come affixed with any emoticons, editorial assides or anything else that might otherwise indicate its tongue-in-cheek intent, so I'm going to assume that the "team official" was being serious. It is now apparently clear why I'm writing a blog instead of being involved in front office decision-making for a big league club. When evaluating available talent, real live actual major league executives (at least one, anyway) look for the following, which I will cleverly refer to as "The Fantastic Four":

Character

Proven run producer

In better shape than a lot of 25-year-olds

Plays hard every day, every game, every second he has the uniform on

That's the secret formula, people. Not power, discipline, defense and base-running. Character > talent; playing hard > playing well. Here is my four-reason retort to why the Mets should stay away from Ibanez this offseason. The "Craptastic Four", if you will:

He is a terrible defensive player.

He will be 37 in 2009.

He is a Type A free agent. Type. A.

Given equivalent playing time, he's probably not any better than Fernando Tatis, whom the Mets already have.

Ibanez is far from an awful hitter, but he is the very ~~epitomy~~ epitome of an awful fielder, and he will be expensive (in money and picks) and old, playing a position where offense is relatively easy to find (see: Tatis). Do. Not. Want. (DNW!)

Friday Applesauce

2008-11-21T15:44:48Z

News, Signings, Etc.

Daniel Murphy has a strained right hamstring and will skip winter ball in Puerto Rico (what will Nick Evans do now?). The Mets say they still plan to use him as an outfielder, though much of that will depend on what becomes of Luis Castillo.

Yesterday was the deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man roster, a necessary move in order to protect those players from next month's Rule 5 draft. The Mets did just that with Mike Carp.

In case you missed it yesterday, Chase Utley had hip surgery and is expected to miss four-to-six months.
The White Sox have reportedly signed Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo, a 19-year-old third-baseman, for something like $11 million. South Side Sox has more.

The Cardinals have signed lefty Trever Miller to help fill out their bullpen. Neither the deal nor its terms have been officially announced as Miller still needs to undergo the requisite physical. Miller pitched with the Rays last season.

Webstuffs

At MetsGeek, john continues his excellent 2008 profile series with an analysis of Pedro Feliciano.

At his ESPN.com blog, Jason Gray. Gray sort of prattles on a bit about Kunz's poor numbers in Arizona before deciding that he just needs to improve his command. For his part, Kunz didn't think he was so ruff. Gray also adds this tidbit on Daniel Murphy:

Daniel Murphy looked like he could handle second base well enough, given his offensive ability. Whether that's enough for the Mets remains to be seen. He has limitations, but he didn't embarrass himself.

At Bugs & Cranks, Brad Borton lays out the pros and cons of the Mets possibly signing Francisco Rodriguez. It's mostly a rebuttal of all of the reasons Rodriguez might make sense for the Mets, and some of it is tongue-in-cheek, though I take issue with this one:

PRO: "He has thrived in big situations and media pressure his entire career. New York shouldn't phase him at all."
CON: This is what they said about Billy Wagner.

If we accept that injuries happen and that they aren't necessarily the fault of the player, I have few complaints about Wagner's tenure in New York. He burned out down the stretch in 2006 and 2007, but at all other times he was one of the best closers in the league and certainly the best reliever the Mets have had since Armando Benitez circa 1999-2000 (minus the playoffs, of course).

At Cardboard Gods, Josh Wilker busts out a 1976 Topps Dave Kingman and, as is his style, veers wistfully off-topic to discuss how tall ballplayers -- like Kingman -- had it made while shorter guys -- Like Freddie Patek -- often got short shrift.

Joe Posnanski gives us the internet's 27,483rd column on why batting average, homeruns and RsBI, while nice, are outdated and inadequate tools for evaluating -- i.e., determining the value of -- baseball players, for awards voting or otherwise.

New York Mets pitcher Aaron Heilman wants to get out of bullpen

2008-11-20T16:27:47Z

New York Mets pitcher Aaron Heilman wants to get out of bullpen

Trade him, start him, or ignore his request?

Thursday Applesauce

2008-11-20T15:57:42Z

In Arizona:

Eddie Kunz, ruff as always, allowed two runs on a walk and three hits -- including a grand slam -- in just two-thirds of an inning.

In the Dominican Republic:

Fernando Martinez went 0-for-4, and is a total bum.

Argenis Reyes went 0-for-3.

Fernando Tatis went 2-for-4 with two doubles, a run scored and a run batted in.

In Puerto Rico:

Nick Evans went 1-for-3 with a walk and a run scored.

Brahiam Maldonado went 0-for-1 as a pinch-hitter.

Jesus Feliciano went 2-for-4 with a walk, a triple, and two runs scored.

Daniel Murphy will have an MRI taken on his right knee today, of which he has experienced discomfort in since November 11.

At MetsGeek, Dan Scotto takes a peek at the Mets' 2009 schedule, looking for interesting stretches and potential bumps in the road.

Mike Mussina appears headed for retirement. Since 1954 he is 15th in wins, 18th in strikeouts, and 8th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (among pitchers with at least 100 starts). He has been a very, very good pitcher for a really long time. If he isn't a Hall of Famer, he's really, really close.

At Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan breaks down the BBRAA awards voting, chastising where appropriate.

At Sabernomics, JC Bradbury puts a dollar value on Derek Lowe. Agent Scott Boras is reportedly looking for a "Zito-type" deal. The annual salary might not be far off (~$18 million a year), but you'd have a tough time finding someone willing to give a soon-to-be 36-year-old a seven-year deal.

The Red Sox' surplus of outfielders led to Coco Crisp being traded to the Royals yesterday in exchange for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Beyond the Boxscore breaks it down. FanGraphs does, too.

Also at BtB, Sky Kalkman thinks the time may be right for the Rays to trade Scott Kazmir, and Peter Bendix continues his series on the history of the NL and AL.
At The Hardball Times, David Gassko follows up on last week's article about whether experience makes any difference to playoff success.

The 30% of sale at the MLB shop has been extended through today. No coupon code necessary.

The Bill James Handbook 2009

2008-11-20T13:00:06Z

Kim: Looks like you got another !@#$ing book in the mail.
Me: The new Bill James Handbook is here! The new Bill James Handbook is here!
Kim: [not quite under her breath] Loser.
Me: ::grinning like a goon::

That conversation may not have actually taken place, but it might as well have. I've nearly filled an entire bookshelf with baseball annuals, including six separate editions of the BJH. In a vast sea of baseball annuals, the BJH distinguishes itself from the pack by -- among other things -- hitting the streets just after the World Series ends. This year's edition was available on November 1st, and I think I may have received my review copy a day or two before then, even. I'm still not sure how they get it finished and shipped so quickly; I think it has something to do with elves.

Last year I tirelessly went through every section of the book and explained the just of the contents. The structure of the book is largely unchanged from last year, so I'm not going to bore you with all of that. I'll try to gear this review more towards Mets-centric nuggets from the book, of which there are plenty.

I mentioned it in an applesauce a couple of weeks ago, but the Fielding Bible awards are back, and Carlos Beltran was honored as the top defensive centerfielder, beating out former Mets Carlos Gomez and Mike Cameron, among others. A panel of ten "experts" voted on the awards, including Bill James, John Dewan, Joe Posnanski and Rob Neyer. David Wright finished tied for fifth at third base (Adrian Beltre won), Jose Reyes finished tenth at shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) and Johan Santana was the sixth highest-ranked pitcher (Kenny Rogers). The voting was somewhat subjective, though I suppose each panelist reached his conclusions using whatever means he considered the most meaningful. The objective counterpart to the awards are Dewan's plus/minus leaders, which would seem to cut into his profits on the forthcoming Fielding Bible 2009. Jose Reyes appears on neither the leaders nor the trailers list, so we may actually have to wait for the FB2009 to know how he actually rated. From the "Kinda Looks Like a Misprint" department, Chase Utley was 47 plays better than average at second base, which is mind-boggling. Also mind-boggling: Pat Burrell was -73 in left field from 2006-2008. Do. Not. Want.

As usual, the BJH devotes near 300 pages to the career registers of every player who was active in 2008. I understand why they include it, and it's theoretically handy to have that kind of information on hand, but in practice I just find it negligibly useful. All of that information -- and much, much more -- is seconds away on the internets. I've got a desktop and a laptop (and an iPhone), so there's rarely a time when it's more convenient to look up a player's statistics in a book instead of hopping online. Maybe I'm on an island here, but I'd prefer they save some trees, cut the career register, and maybe add a few more Bill James articles about the prior season in order to flesh things out a little bit.

The time I save by not looking at the career register I can spend on the 2008 baserunning statistics, which are just fascinating to me. If we can accurately measure runs created on the basepaths, there's no reason they shouldn't be included in a player's total value when we're quantifying his contributions to the team. Offense is X, defense is Y, and baserunning should be Z. The BJH's baserunning stats measure each player's ability at:

Going first-to-third on a single

Going second-to-home on a single

Going first-to-home on a double

Advancing on outs

Not getting doubled off

Not grounding into double-plays

All of those factors are thrown into a mixer which spits out a base runs gained/lost. That number is combined with stolen base gain/lost to arrive at a total baserunning gain/lost, expressed in runs. Carlos Beltran cracked the top ten with +35 base runs, which you can add to the list of things he does extraordinarily well. Jose Reyes was at +32. Derek Jeter was -13. Willy Taveras led all big leaguers with +70 base runs. Dioner Navarro trailed everyone at -39. As a team, the Mets were fourth in the majors with +85 base runs. The World Champion Phillies were first overall with +114 base runs.

The relief pitching section is also neat, as it breaks down saves into different types (easy, regular, tough), and also includes things like stranding inherited runners, pitching on consecutive days, high-leverage situations, long outings blown save/win situations, and some other stuff. A "tough save" is defined as one in which a reliever comes into the game with the tying or go-ahead runs on base. Tough saves were only converted successfully 22% of the time in 2008. The Mets' bullpen served to drag that number down a bit by going 0-for-8 in tough save opportunities.

We've also got a section on manufactured runs. This goes a bit beyond productive outs by determining actual runs that scored as a result of "productive" outs. A manufactured run, per the BJH, is "(a) any run on which two or more of the bases come from something other than playing station-to-station baseball, or (b) a run that scores without a hit, or with only infield hits". They're further separated into deliberately manufactured runs (runs that involve a stolen base, a bunt, or a pinch-runner) and non-deliberate manufactured runs (one that don't include the aforementioned managerial decisions). For whatever it's worth, the Mets manufactured more total runs -- 207 -- than any other National League team, and just shy of the 213 manufactured by the Twins. Yay! Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are the top two manufacturers in the NL, craftily assembling 42 runs and 37 runs, respectively.

The book goes on and on. We've got managerial records, park factors, comprehensive ballpark statistics (Shea Stadium suppressed RHB batting average more than any NL park outside of San Diego), lefty/right splits for batters and pitchers, esoteric stat leaderboards (David Wright had the second-highest NL OPS among players under 25; Mike Pelfrey led the NL in GIDP/9 with 1.30; Oliver Perez was the most extreme flyball pitcher in all of baseball;), career win shares, and the Young Talent Inventory (Wright and Reyes are both among James's top ten players under 27). We also get 2009 projections, which I've already covered in great depth.

If that weren't enough, there's also career targets (formerly known as the Favorite Toy), which evaluates the likelihood of certain players hitting certain milestones. For instance, Jose Reyes has a 31% chance of reaching 3,000 hits and a 5% chance of reaching 4,000 hits. Alex Rodriguez dominates this section, and has a 49% chance of breaking Barry Bonds's career homerun record.

There's really just an astounding amount of information in here, and it's very easy to get lost within it for hours at a time. I urge you to pick up your own copy, and if you do, please buy it directly from ACTA Sports. You can save a few bucks through Amazon, but when you buy direct from the publisher you're supporting the folks that make this and other great baseball books possible.

Wednesday Applesauce

2008-11-19T16:39:20Z

In Arizona:

Jason Vargas allowed one run on four hits in 2.0 innings.

Tobi Stoner allowed three runs on three hits and a walk in 1.2 innings.

Daniel Murphy was still nowhere to be found.

In the Dominican Republic:

Fernando Tatis went 0-for-3 with a walk.

In Puerto Rico:

Nick Evans went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts.

Eddie Camacho struck out one in a perfect inning of relief.

Jesus Feliciano went 2-for-4 with a double, a walk and two runs scored.

At MetsGeek, Mike Newman wonders if Mets prospects are especially overhyped, and, if so, how they come to be overhyped.

At RotoGraphs, Brian Joura talks about David Wright and how high he should go in your typical fantasy draft. The bottom line: If you pick third overall, Wright shouldn't be around by the time you make your first-round selection.

At FanGraphs, Eric Seidman talks about Pedro Martinez and his future in the big leagues. His Marcel projection isn't too hot, though the Bill James projection is very optimistic.

Buried in his most recent chat, Rob Neyer mentions that his ESPN.com blog will be coming out from behind the Insider pay wall. His latest entry should be available to all. The URL still points to Insider, but I was able to read it without being logged into my friend's Insider account, so, yay!

Phillies blog The700Level wades through some of professional sports' biggest locales to find the biggest city rival to Philadelphia. It doesn't take them long to call off the search.

Tuesday Applesauce

2008-11-18T17:00:08Z

In Arizona:

Josh Thole went 0-for-3 with a walk.

Bobby Parnell started and tossed four scoreless innings, striking out three and allowing just a hit and a walk.

In the Dominican Republic:

Fernando Martinez went 3-for-4 with a solo homerun and two runs scored (.394/.438/.652).

Fernando Tatis went 2-for-4.

At MetsGeek, James Kannengieser breaks down the top ten Mets batter seasons.

Despite the fact that our economy is in the crapper and our financial institutions are largely responsible for flushing the toilet, the Mets have assured everyone that their landmark twenty-year, $400 million sponsorship deal with Citigroup is not in jeopardy. When reached for comment, the 53,000 employees whom Citi is laying off said, "Really? Really."

Marty Noble has a new mailbag up, where the questions are actually quite stupider than the answers.

Pedro Martinez will definitely pitch next season, for the Mets or somebody else.

Tom Tango's 2009 Marcel the Monkey projections are available, and FanGraphs already has 'em, both sortable-wise as well as within the individual player pages.

Also at FanGraphs, Eric Seidman looks at Joe Beimel, one of the more interesting names on the free agent relief market.

At Beyond the Boxscore, Peter Bendix has the first part of his series on the history of the National and American Leagues. It's a long read but a good one.

At Baseball Digest Daily, John Brattain compares the tenures of Bud Selig and former commissioner Peter Ueberroth.

The Kobe 9 Cruise of a new independent Japanese professional baseball league has drafted a 16-year-old girl, Eri Yoshida, who throws a sidearm knuckleball.

MLBAM has reached an agreement with Adobe to use Flash for all of MLB.com's embedded and streaming video. They were previously under contract with Microsoft to use Silverlight for video streaming. Uber-nerds can compare Flash and Silverlight.

The Top 50 Mets of All Time: #33 Tommie Agee

2008-11-18T13:00:08Z

In 1967, the Mets went 61-101, clearing the century mark in losses for the fifth time in six seasons (the outlier, 1966, saw them lose only 95 games). Looking to shore up their defense and get a bit younger in the process, on December 15, 1967, the Mets completed a long-discussed trade that sent left-fielder Tommy Davis, pitcher Jack Fisher, and two others to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for utility infielder -- and Long Island native -- Al Weis and young centerfielder Tommie Agee. Agee had won the rookie of the year and finished eighth in MVP voting in 1966, but a tough sophomore campaign enabled the Mets to pry him loose.

Year Age PA XBH BB AVG OBP SLG EQA WARP3 VORP

1968 25 391 20 15 .217 .255 .307 .224 1.0 -10.0

1969 26 635 53 59 .271 .342 .464 .293 8.4 27.2

1970 27 696 61 55 .286 .344 .469 .285 8.5 32.1

1971 28 482 33 50 .285 .362 .428 .307 6.5 26.8

1972 29 483 26 53 .227 .317 .374 .263 3.4 3.1

Agee's Met career got off to a suboptimal start. He was nailed in the back of the head by a Bob Gibson fastball in his very first spring training plate appearance, returning six days later, none the worse for wear. Once the regular season finally rolled around, Agee hit just .109/.144/.152 over his first 28 games, spanning 98 plate appearances. He wasn't a whole lot better the rest of the way, hitting .254/.292/.359 in his last 104 games to close the season with a putrid .217/.255/.307 line.

The end result was cringe-worthy, but Agee did pick his game up as the season wore on. He was hitting just .177/.220/.264 after the Mets drubbed the Giants 8-0 at Shea, but over his final 85 plate appearances -- 29 games' worth -- he hit .363/.386/.463, enough of a surge for manager Gil Hodges to all-but-guarantee Agee's place in centerfield for the following season.

Hoping to continue his hot swinging, Agee spent part of the winter with the Mets' instructional league team in St. Petersburg, Florida. It worked. Well, sort of. Agee collected five hits -- two of them homeruns -- and knocked in six runs in the first three games of the 1969 season, but picked up just three hits in his next 28 at-bats as his batting average dropped to .195 and he quickly found himself riding the bench in Hodges's doghouse.

Agee appeared sporadically over the subsequent three weeks, picking up just ten plate appearances over the Mets' next 17 games. Perhaps illustrating the fickle nature of batting average and small sample sizes, Agee raised his average to .265 in those ten times to the plate. He returned to the lineup for good on May 10 against the Astros, and smacked three homeruns in a double-header the next day. He would appear in 131 of the team's final 135 games -- making 129 starts along the way -- and finished with a .271/.342/.464 line, trailing only teammate and fellow Alabamian Cleon Jones for the team lead in OPS among starters.

Thanks in no small part to Agee's terrific season, the Mets shocked the baseball world by capturing the NL East title and stormed into the playoffs to face the Braves in the NLCS. Agee was brilliant against Atlanta, hitting .357/.438/.857 with two homeruns and four RsBI as the Mets swept in three games to move on to the franchise's first World Series appearance. Agee didn't fare quite so well against Baltimore in the Fall Classic, hitting just .167/.250/.333 in the five-game series, but his efforts in the Series' third game made up for any shortcomings otherwise.

With the Series tied at a game apiece and Shea hosting its first World Series game, Agee led off the bottom of the first with a clout to centerfield that put the Mets ahead, 1-0. The rest of his Game 3 heorics came with the glove, with which he made two incredible catches, including this one that robbed Paul Blair of an extra-base hit with the bases loaded and two outs in the top of the seventh. The Mets went on to win that game -- and the next two -- to capture their first World Series title against the heavily-favored Orioles (here is a photo montage the New York Times ran on 8/15/1969).

Fresh off his World Series celebration, Agee finished sixth in the NL MVP voting and was awarded a $40,000 contract for 1970. Continuing a pattern he established in his first two seasons with the Mets, Agee got off to a slow start again, hitting just .227/.310/.333 after the team's first 20 games and his first 84 plate appearances. Also like his first two seasons, Agee just took a little while to get going, as he hit .294/.349/.487 over his final 135 games. He also walloped eleven homeruns in June, setting a club mark for longballs in a month, had a 19-game hitting streak at one point, and won a game in tenth inning on a walk-off steal of home. He also picked up his second Gold Glove award for his play in centerfield. The Mets were tied for first place as late as September 14, but lost eight of their last eleven games to finish at 83-79, in third place in the NL East and six games behind the first-place Pirates.

Agee actually got off to a solid start in 1971, but was derailed by a right knee injury that cost him 20 games in June. He hit .287/.373/.439 for the 62 games that followed his return, but his season was halted again on September 4 when he "had 70 cubic centimeters of blood drained from his right knee" (New York Times, 9/5/1971). He missed fifteen more games recuperating, and the Mets finished the season tied for third, this time fourteen games in back of the Pirates.

Agee was reportedly healthy after an offseason of rest and light exercise, and the Mets signed him for the 1972 season for around $55,000, the same figure he earned in 1971. Agee's performance belied his assertion, as he struggled with the bat for much of the season. He missed a week with a groin strain at the beginning of July, came back for two games, then suffered a strained intercostal and missed the next three weeks. Agee muddled along -- much like the Mets -- for the remainder of the season, and finished with a disappointing .227/.317/.374 line.

Weary of Agee's growing list of injuries, the Mets dealt him to the Astros that offseason for Rich Chiles and Buddy Harris, who went on to do little and nothing for the Mets, respectively. Agee hit a collective .222/.281/.398 with the Astros and Cardinals in 1973, but by that time injuries had sapped almost all of the speed and power from his once-athletic body. He was cut by the Dodgers during spring training of 1974 and that was it for Agee, who, at just 30 years old, was officially out of baseball.

Tommie Agee went on to sell title insurance after his playing career ended, and he died following a heart attack on January 22, 2001 at the age of 58.

Though it took him some time to get rolling, Tommie Agee turned in three excellent seasons for the Mets from 1969 thru 1971. He was terrific in the 1969 NLCS and owned Game 3 of the World Series, his miraculous diving catch in the latter having left an indelible imprint on a generation of Mets fans. The rigors of the game wore him down far too soon, and though his life was cut tragically short, the images and vivid memories of his time spent in Queens live on.

2008 NL Most Valuable Player (BBWAA)

2008-11-17T19:25:57Z

2008 NL Most Valuable Player (BBWAA)

Pujols wins, but by far less than he should have. David Wright comes in seventh with 115 points; Carlos Delgado finishes ninth with 96 points; Johan Santana is 11th with 30 points (including a second-place vote); Carlos Beltran finishes 19th with 10 points; Jose Reyes picks up an eighth-place vote.

At least everyone who received votes was actually eligible for the award.

Johan Santana's Contact Rate

2008-11-17T16:56:18Z

The awesome gets awesomer, as FanGraphs introduces some new stats including pitcher discipline metrics (basically, the same swing/zone/contact stats they already had for hitters but this time for pitchers). Using these new stats, we can see that Johan Santana had his worst season, at least since 2005 (the discipline stats only go back that far), in a lot of these areas.

Year F-Strike% O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% Pitches

2005 69.1 % 30.2 % 72.2 % 53.7 % 50.7 % 81.9 % 74.2 % 55.9 % 3335

2006 65.4 % 30.1 % 71.6 % 53.0 % 50.3 % 83.1 % 74.8 % 55.3 % 3450

2007 65.4 % 28.2 % 72.6 % 52.6 % 51.8 % 80.0 % 73.2 % 54.9 % 3345

2008 63.8 % 26.8 % 69.2 % 50.0 % 59.8 % 82.5 % 77.0 % 54.7 % 3598

Santana's first strike % (F-Strike%) was worse than it ever has been. Ditto his swing rate at balls outside the strike zone (O-Swing%). And his swings within the strike zone (Z-Swing%). It follows, then, that his overall swing rate (Swing%), the aggregate of those last two, is also the worst since 2005.

The most dramatic point of information here is Santana's contact rate outside the strike zone (O-Contact%), which increased from 51.8% in 2007 to 59.8% in 2008. This means that Santana got far fewer swing-and-misses in 2008 than he ever had before. His overall contact rate (Contact%) jumped from 73.2% to 77.0%, which would doubtless explain his alarming drop in strikeout rate this past season (9.66 to 7.91).

I don't have enough information right now to know if the increased contact rate is an obvious sign of onset regression, or if it's something that fluctuates to some degree from year to year (as Jake Peavy's has), and that maybe with a little better luck Santana's strikeout rate will more closely resemble his career mark in 2009.

It's something to keep an eye on, for sure.

EDIT: As Larry points out via email, a decrease in Z-Swing% is probably a *good* thing, since contact rate within the strike zone is generally very high.

Monday Applesauce

2008-11-17T17:25:44Z

In the Dominican Republic:

Argenis Reyes went 0-for-4 with a walk.

Fernando Martinez went 1-for-4 with a walk and an RBI.

Fernando Tatis went 2-for-7 with an RBI.

In Puerto Rico:

After picking up his first two hits of the fall on Saturday, Nick Evans went 0-for-2 with a walk on Sunday.

Brahiam Maldonado went 1-for-2.

At MetsGeek, Chris McCown lays out his offseason manifesto.

In Newsday, Ken Davidoff talks about how the Mets are concerned with Francisco Rodriguez's drop in velocity, but maybe aren't so concerned about Bobby Jenks's precipitous drop in strikeouts. I'd be concerned about both, frankly, and if the White Sox are really looking for a "high-level prospect" for Jenks (say, Fernando Martinez), the Mets had better be doing their shopping elsewhere.

The Yankees have sold the rights to Darrell Rasner to a team in Japan, which perhaps gives Rasner a chance to make a better living for himself than he would have as a farmhand with the Yanks. Tyler Kepner has more.

Speaking of the Yankees, are they overbidding for C.C. Sabathia? Possibly. Some Red Sox fans are hoping the Yankees do sign him (scroll down to reason #947, via Ken Davidoff's baseball insider).

The Hardball Times Annual sounds awesome. Go pre-order it from ACTA Sports.

Seven of ESPN's "experts" picked Ryan Howard for NL MVP. One of them picked Manny Ramirez, and another picked C.C. Sabathia. Rob Neyer picked Lance Berkman which, while hardly a bad pick, is just Neyer trying to be different, I think. Bob Klapisch was one of the seven to pick Howard, so he is officially dead to me.

Rich Lederer has the first part of his twelve-part review of the Bill James Handbook. I should have part one of my one-part review up sometime this week.

The Pirates' Nate McLouth won a Gold Glove, but John Dewan's +/- system rated him at -40, the worst of any centerfielder in baseball. How do we reconcile the two? John Dewan himself takes a crack at it (via WHYGAVS?).

Is Francisco Rodriguez a Postseason Stud?

2008-11-15T22:24:12Z

The baseball world officially met Francisco Rodriguez in October 2002 when, thanks to a loophole in MLB's postseason roster rules, Rodriguez was added to the Angels' ledger for their ALDS series against the Yankees. A few weeks later the Angels had won their first World Series title and the legend of K-Rod was born.

Rodriguez is a free agent now and has some kind of reputation as a big game pitcher -- at least, I've read that a few times lately -- but I don't know whether that's really true. It is true that he was almost unhittable in 2002, but he hasn't been especially dominant in five playoff series since then.

Year IP H ER BB K ERA K/BB

2002 18.2 10 4 5 28 1.98 5.60

Since 13.0 17 7 9 13 4.85 1.44

Neither set of data is a particularly large sample, but there's hardly conclusive evidence that Rodriguez is any sort of big game pitcher, and it might be easier to make an argument to the contrary. I won't suggest that he should be judged by his last thirteen postseason innings, but he certainly shouldn't get any bonus points for being a playoff star since reality doesn't seem to support that particular assertion.

Year	Age	PA	XBH	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	EQA	WARP3	VORP
1968	25	391	20	15	.217	.255	.307	.224	1.0	-10.0
1969	26	635	53	59	.271	.342	.464	.293	8.4	27.2
1970	27	696	61	55	.286	.344	.469	.285	8.5	32.1
1971	28	482	33	50	.285	.362	.428	.307	6.5	26.8
1972	29	483	26	53	.227	.317	.374	.263	3.4	3.1

Year	F-Strike%	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%	Pitches
2005	69.1 %	30.2 %	72.2 %	53.7 %	50.7 %	81.9 %	74.2 %	55.9 %	3335
2006	65.4 %	30.1 %	71.6 %	53.0 %	50.3 %	83.1 %	74.8 %	55.3 %	3450
2007	65.4 %	28.2 %	72.6 %	52.6 %	51.8 %	80.0 %	73.2 %	54.9 %	3345
2008	63.8 %	26.8 %	69.2 %	50.0 %	59.8 %	82.5 %	77.0 %	54.7 %	3598