Interweb: Baseball Crank: Gut Check

by Eric Simon on Sep 22, 2006 12:08 PM EDT

Over at Baseball Crank, Dan McLaughlin touches on a subject we have all been wondering about, at least since it became clear that the Mets would be going to the playoffs: would the Mets really start Steve Trachsel in the playoffs over John Maine?

Fact: if you look at Trachsel's starts 3 at a time, he has just two, overlapping three-start stretches this season (August 2-13 and August 8-18) where he posted an ERA below 3.44 - while Maine's ERA for the season is 3.42.

Dan ranks all of Trachsel's and Maine's starts in decreasing order of game score, and it comes as little surprise that most of Maine's starts are at the top of the list while most of Trachsel's fall to the bottom.

We've talked about this before, and given Trachsel's performance in the division-clinching game along with his status as a Proven Veteran™, not to mention his uselessness coming out of the bullpen, I see little chance that Trachsel won't be the Mets fourth starter in the playoffs and that Maine will be relegated to the bullpen, likely bumping Darren Oliver from the roster altogether. This is all assuming the first three slots will go to Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, and Orlando Hernandez.

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Not to be too contrarian

But one thing to consider is scouting. Everyone's seen Trachsel already. Maine probably has no where near as much of a book and footage. But in the postseason things change. All the NL scouts have known they might face the Mets in the postseason for months. And so if Maine's advantage is that he's fooling people, or if he has a weakness (tipping pitches etc.) that hasn't been realized yet, it may be found with the more intense scrutiny and come unwound.

Also being a Proven Veteran™ has the advantage of probably being calmer under that kind of pressure. And if you piss off your veterans like that, it makes it harder to sign valuable free agents later.

by peeder on Sep 22, 2006 12:36 PM EDT reply actions

my two cents

It's something of an impossible situation, given that Trachsel is useless in the bullpen, so I think that the Mets will have to give him at least one start. But they also will have to keep him on a very short leash.

And so, if it can be done, I think they will need both Maine and Oliver on the roster and in the bullpen.

Here's the thing: obviously Trachs could melt down, and the Mets might have to go to a long man early. Now, people don't want to hear this, BUT... I also could see El Duque, Glavine, and yes, even Pedro melting down as well.

I think our pitching staff is good overall, but all of these guys have been hit or miss all year. And you can't "miss" in the playoffs. So I think it would be great if the team could carry both a lefty and a righty in the pen for long relief.

[Citizens Bank Park] is a paradise of cheap homeruns. -Gary Cohen

by kingcritical on Sep 22, 2006 12:49 PM EDT reply actions

I agree

and the thing about carrying more batters is, every batter (but for the DH in the series) you use for a pitcher means you need another pitcher to go out there. Pitchers need time to recover, they wear down. Batters don't.

So it's a delicate balance. I do think our pen is a major strength and we will lean on it. I also think we don't have as deep a bench to make it worth a lot of pinch hitting in favor of bullpen arms.

by peeder on Sep 22, 2006 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions