This Week in Mets' Overreaction
Despite some turbulence along the way, including a two-hour loss of electricity that struck fear in the minds of infrequent flyers and world travelers alike, the plane managed to land safely in the city of Hanoi, where I was born 20 years ago. The first thing I did upon landing was, yes, you guessed it,...
The Greatest Bison: Frank Grant and the Color Line
Ulysses F. Grant, called "Frank," was born shortly after another man named Grant met a general named Lee in a courthouse at Appomattox.
In those days, the abolitionist Samuel Harrison preached at the black church in Pittsfield, Mass., Frank’s home town, where a form of baseball had been played since at least 1791.
As it happened, Pastor Harrison’s name had passed across President Lincoln’s desk:
"Samuel Harrison, Chaplain of the 54th Regt. Mass. Vols. (colored troops) asks pay at the usual rate of $100 per month, and two rations, which, he being of African descent, I decline paying, under Act of Congress passed July 17, 1862… The Chaplain declines to receive anything less."
At Lincoln's request, an Act of Congress granted equal pay to black troops in 1864. Retroactive to Sam Harrison’s battlefield ministry.
Frank Grant was no hero. He was a ballplayer.
At 20 years old he fought his way onto the Buffalo Bisons of the elite International League, hitting .344 in 49 games, the third highest average of 1886. The papers, for winking purposes, introduced him as a "Spaniard," an "Italian," or an "Indian." Only occasionally a "darkey" or "coon."
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A WIN METHOD Analysis of the Current State of the Mets
Our 2012 Mets have been utilizing the WIN METHOD quite well this year, as evidenced by their 20-16 record while they sit 2.5 games back of the Nationals. While this isn't a shocking win total, it is well above what many would have expected from them this year. Of course, as we know, many predictions for the Mets are based on aggregating individual accomplishments, which of course, as we know, are actually meaningless. Some projected the Mets to be a 70-win team, for example, simply by adding up the projected WAR of each individual player on the team. Because the Mets have been employing the WIN METHOD correctly, they are coming together as a team, performing above how each player was predicted to perform, and thus winning more games.
How are the Mets currently utilizing the WIN METHOD? How could the Mets improve their performance by better utilizing the WIN METHOD? Let's see how the players contribute to the Mets' success and how they could improve on that aspect. As a result, I will have some recommendations for Dandy Olders and Sons.
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This Week in Mets Quotes
Now you’re a man
"When I see Nicky hit with a strong at-bat, I think, 'I'm the man right now. I'll hit the ball to the middle. He made a mistake and I hit the ball well." Valdespin via espn
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Is our good play surprising
Honestly the Mets are playing to my expectations right now. I look very deep into stuff and that is why I thought from day one we would end above .500. This is how I looked at things
David Wright: Batting is more of a mental thing then people think and David Wright is proving that. I expected him to hit .310 with 25-30 bombs and 110 rbi's. He may very well hit .350 this year
Johan Santana and RA dickey- I expected them both to be themselves
Jon Niese- I believed he would develop
Pelfrey- I thought he would fix himself
Murphy is an elite hitter and hit .320 last year, Tejada has a smooth swing and was hitting .300, when Thole is playing his game he can hit .300, Duda has power and in the second half last year he hit .320.
I expected Murphy to be hitting .310, Tejada .290, and Duda who is turning it around .300. I was pretty spot on. Hell I expected Torres to be hitting .270
I was wrong with two things, I thought that at this point Captain Kirk would cave in, and that Jordany Valdespin would be our future CF ( I know he is an IF but with his speed he can learn Center) and I also expected Ike to be hitting .285-.300
I expected us to be performing well because based off my predictions Santana and Dickey is a perfect 1-2 Niese, Pelf, and Gee is a good 3-4-5.
Murphy is a perfect 2-5 hitter, Wright is a perfect 3 hitter, Davis is a perfect 4 hitter when he is himself, and Duda based off last year is a perfect 5 hitter.
When I look at Wright, Davis and Duda I see Wright, Delgado, and Beltran. I know Duda wont be Beltran but i think Ike will be better for us then Delgado was.
Comparing this team to the 2006 Mets, we get on base more and have 6 hitters and potentially more who can hit above .300 and walk a lot. We also hit lots of doubles. It is a really smooth underrated offense I say it is at least equal to our 2006 lineup. And the rotation isn't better then our 2006 rotation yet but it has potential too be. Our one problem is bullpen.
On Pace For . . .
One-fifth of the season is in the books. Not a terribly reliable statistical sample but big enough to have some fun. And since I'm mathematically challenged the idea of simply multiplying by five is something I ought to be able to pull off. So with that out of the way, who's on pace for what?
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Musing on Expansion
Dan Lewis's post about protecting our players for an expansion draft got me thinking in general about expansion, which is probably due as there are now an odd number of teams in each league going into 2013 with the Astros' move to the AL West.
Posing a question to the community: What is your plan of expansion? Do you have a 40-man draft? Where do you put new teams? Do we move the NFL System of four divisions per conference? Are the playoffs further expanded?
Quick Synopsis on what I would do: Add teams in Las Vegas (or Greater Nevada) and Baton Rouge to key in to oft-neglected fanbases such as those in Vegas, birthplace of the Great Bryce Harper and in general a thriving local sports area, as well as the Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana gulf area which has a lot of potential for income. Then do NFL Style Everything. 12 team playoffs with 2 Wild Card teams per league and a 4-team first round (although there should be a three game series for the first round), 5 game series second round, 7 game for pennant and WS. Divisions would be as follows:
NL East:
NL South
Baton Rouge
St. Louis
NL North:
NL West:
AL East:
AL North:
AL West:
Las Vegas
AL South:
Astros
Imagining Expansion: Who Would You Protect?
In both the 1992 (Rockies/Marlins) and 1997 (D'Backs/Rays) expansion drafts, the new MLB teams were able to select players off the existing teams' 40 man roster. Each existing team was able to protect 15 players on their 40 man. The draft is three rounds, and each existing team loses a player in each of the first two rounds and, potentially, in the third as well (it is only half as long). After each of the first two rounds, existing teams can protect an additional three players.
Let's imagine that MLB expands again after the 2012 season. You're Sandy Alderson. Which players on the Mets 40 man roster do you protect?
30-team dynasty-Mets available
I have a 30-team dynasty sim league at dynastybaseballassociation.com, where you start out with your team, and the Mets are available. It is a free league and no trades have been made. Email me at padres4221@hotmail.com, or go on the chat at the bottom of the page to join or ask questions, here are a few rules from the league so you guys get an idea for how the league works.
I figured I could find a Mets fan who would want to take them over here. There are about 8 other teams available so email me for those too.
Introduction
This is a 30 team simulation league. The simulating program will be ootp. I plug the rosters and lineups and manager tendencies, etc. into the program and it simulates games based on projections, past performances, and various other factors. You could start any prospect, though it might hurt their development. It will even simulate injuries, so I hope you have the depth for a 162 game season plus the playoffs!League Rules
PENALTY POINTS:
You may receive penalty points if you break the rules. The league is allowed to reduce and give penalty points at their disgression. They reset at the end of each year. If you receive 7 points, you will be released from your position. You will not be allowed to become a GM until the end of the year when your points clear. If you are hired as staff and bring the total to 10 points in that year, or a released from your position of GM again, you will have a 2 year ban from the league. Then an additional one year ban for being a GM.
1-4 points:
Warning
4-5 points:
10 million CAP reduction
6 points:
1 month ban/vacation. AGM takes over.
7 points:
Dismissed from your position. SALARY CAP:There will be a hard salary cap. It will be determined at the start of the league. Transactions that take you over CAP will be rejected. Exceeding
CAP is worth one penalty point for every month. You will be required to spend half of your CAP at ALL TIMES. Any cap you do not spend, you may keep 10% of it
for the next year.
PERFORMANCE:Every year you go under .500 you get one penalty point added on to the end of the year. The worst team receives 2. If you repeat
as worst, you get 4. If you three-peat as worst, you get 6. If you finish as worst a 4th time, you are automatically dismissed. Every year you go consecutively under .500 under the same regime is an additional 1 point.DRAFTS:There will be two, possibly up to four drafts annually.SUPPLEMENTAL
DRAFTS:
There will be drafts
SUPPLEMENTAL DRAFT:
This will be a live draft. You will submit a list if you cannot make it. If you do not submit a list or can't make it, you will lose your selection. Any
unowned minor leaguer may be selected. For the inagural draft, there will be a list. Anybody you select with your 1st round selection will be added on to your
40-man. If you skip your selection, you may make no more. You will receive 5 minutes to select. If you take longer you will have your pick skipped. All minor
leaguers that are not selected become free agents. The order will be determined by last seasons place in the standings.
AMATEUR DRAFT:
This draft is of high school and college players, to be held after the MLB draft. You will receive 5 minutes to select. If you take longer you will have your pick skipped. If you are skipped on a 1st or second round pick, you may pick in next years compensation round. Anybody you select with your 1st round selection will be
added on to your 40-man. The draft will continue. You may trade draft picks and you may recieve various picks due to free agent compensation.
EXPANSION DRAFT:
TBD
RULE 5 DRAFT:
TBD TRADES:
You may trade players.
TRADE DEADLINE:
The trade deadline will be August 1st. At 9:00 PM Eastern Time. This will allow those MLB addicts to be hoping for their team to acquire that aquisition for 3 prospects that will put them over the top without having to deal with fantasy baseball on that day.
CASH/PICKS/CLAUSES/PTBNL
-You may trade cash in any deal, or even cash for a player.
-You may trade ameatuer and supplemental draft picks at any time. Even during the actual draft. If I want to move up from pick 28 to pick 17 to draft Kevin Gausman, to snatch him from the Pirates, who sit at 18. and I trade my 2nd rounder, and my 1st for the Giants 17th overall pick, we would both have to PM the commissioner, and the draft will have a 5 minute "Trade Delay".
-Clauses in trades must be approved by the commissioners office.
-If you trade a ptbnl, the teams must agree on a list, a date, and who gets to choose the player. You may not trade a person on a list at that time. EX:
LIST:
Andrew Brackman
J.J. Hoover
Bill Bray
Rays to pick by 5/1/2012.
AUGUST WAIVERS:
In August, we will have trade waivers. You will be allowed to submit any player on your 40-man through revocable trade waivers. Anyboby who clears may be traded. Players off your 40-man may be traded. If the player is claimed, the team who put him though waivers has three options:
-Trade the player to the claiming team
-Let the claiming team have the player
-Revoke the player off waivers
FREE AGENCY AND EXTENSIONS:
You will be able to extend your players at any time.
EXTENSIONS:
If you put your extensions in the transaction center, I will post them on the forum. They will be voted on the forum. With a 50%+ approve rate after 48 hours, the extension will the upheld. They will vote as if they were an agent, not as if they were voting for fairness.
FREE AGENCY:
You will be able to bid on free agents. For now, we will use the "best offer system" so if it is an old player and you offer him a 5/50 contract, and someone offers a 1/15 contract, 5/50 wins. This system will be redone by the time free agency starts.
You will be allowed to tag players for compensation in the form of draft picks.
ROSTER STYLE:
You will be given a 25/40/100 style roster, when you have your 25-man which is active players you may use in the games. You may call up and send down anybody on the 40-man onto or off the 25-man. If you want to move someone onto the 25-man that is not on the 40-man, you call them up to the 40-man. To take someone off the 40-man, you must DFA or release them. If you DFA them, they go onto waivers, and if they clear, they are outrighted to the 100-man.
COLLUSION:
If you are found guily of collusion, all guilty parties shall recieve 7 penalty points.
MINIMUM ACTIVITY:
You will be required to chat or make a roster move or lineup change or respond to a league PM or PM me once a week, or else be awarded one penalty point. You may email me ahead of time if you will be unable to.
AMENDMENTS:
Amendment I
If you are inactive for 2 consecutive weeks, your AGM will transition to your position gradually over the next week, before assuming full control by the end of the 3rd week. You will receive your position back if you can make it back in time before maxing out in penalty points.An examination of Daniel Murphy and his lack of power
After watching Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy have another night where he generally showed very little power, his slash line stands at .308/.345/.369. Given that he was a doubles machine last year, I decided to examine his numbers more in depth, to get an understanding as to why he has declined. (These numbers are up to 5/10/12)
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