Once upon a time, Mike Pelfrey was considered the Mets’ top prospect. In 2005, the Mets took Pelfrey with the ninth overall pick in the amateur draft, but he didn’t make his professional debut until 2006. In his first year as a professional, Pelfrey pitched for nearly every team in the organization, beginning the year in St. Lucie before playing for Binghamton, Norfolk, and eventually the Mets. In the minors, Pelfrey was mostly outstanding, totaling 10.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 2.43 ERA. His cup of coffee with the Mets consisted of four below-average starts, but that wasn’t considered the end of the world at the time. The following year, Pelfrey split his time between AAA and the Mets, pitching to a decent ERA in the minors despite a huge drop in strikeouts and once again putting up below-average numbers with the Mets.

Pelfrey’s first full season with the Mets came in 2008, and compared to his previous stints with the team, it went remarkably well. Over 200.2 innings spanning 32 starts, Pelfrey posted a 3.96 FIP and 4.45 xFIP, even though he struck out less than five-per-nine. In the process, Pelfrey once again got hopes up about his potential performance, but the results in 2009 didn’t match the expectations.

Not much of what Pelfrey was doing on the mound changed – his 4.47 xFIP was virtually identical to his previous season – but his 5.03 ERA wasn’t very pretty. In 2010, the results went back in the other direction, as plenty of Mets fans were calling him the team’s second ace through the first half of the season. Despite a drop-off in the second half of the year, Pelfrey’s 3.66 ERA on the season looked like a step forward. His xFIP, of course, wound up at 4.31, just a shade better than each of the previous two seasons. The rule of thumb was established as follows:

• If Pelfrey’s having an above-average year, he’s not as good as he looks.
• If Pelfrey’s having a below-average year, he’s not as bad as he looks.

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Meet the Mets

The Mets are all packed up and ready for Spring Training. Of course, since they can't afford to hire real movers, they had to put poor Mr. Met to work. They really should be careful. You know what happens when Mr. Met gets stressed out.

In stories recycled from July of last year, Johan Santana has been throwing long toss and may be ready to pitch off a mound soon. It's deja vu all over again. Hope Chris Schwinden is in the best shape of his life!

Mark Simon, ESPN's resident stat head, takes a look at what 2012 might hold for Lucas Duda. If you want more Lucas Duda talk, Eno and I recently discussed him on my podcast. (/cheap plug) And Ted Berg looked at whether or not Duda and Bay should be flip-flopped in the outfield corners. If that doesn't work, Bay can always play bass in Pearl Jam apparently. Andy Martino, master of scoops.

Toby Hyde was very busy yesterday, updating us on the potential Eastern League affiliate shuffle next year, and then profiling Josh Edgin and Matt Den Dekker as his #19 and #18 prospects. That Edgin ranking is very, very ambitious. Toby's seen him more than me, obviously, but I'm going to remain skeptical about 24 year olds at A ball (who aren't named Darin Gorski. GORSKI!) I have Den Dekker in the same general range, though I don't think his ceiling is quite as high as Toby does.

Hey, let's check in with Sandy!

Can't decide on a Valentine's Day gift for my wife: Spa day or iHOP gift card?

Eh, that was okay, but Sandy's set the bar awfully high. I'll just assume the stress of the drive is wearing him down a bit.

Dayn Perry tries to create a Mets meme using the expressionist art of Francisco Goya. Eh, it's no "probably vampires or something." And it's certainly no Ike Davis Dog.

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I almost forgot about this, but at 9pm tonight the MLB Network is airing a new episode of Studio 42 with Bob Costas featuring an interview with Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine, during which Bobby V expounds on all things baseball. Of significance to Mets fans, he talks about losing Game 6 to the Braves in the 1999 NLCS as well as the oft-rumored, since-debunked, yet still utterly plausible story of erstwhile Met Rickey Henderson introducing himself to new Mariner teammate and fellow erstwhile Met John Olerud.

Henderson reportedly remarked to Olerud, who wore a batting helmet in the field as a precautionary measure after suffering a brain aneurysm in college, that he (Henderson) had a teammate in New York who also conspicuously donned a helmet on defense. We always knew that Olerud was in fact both players — Henderson's teammate in New York and now in Seattle — but we also eventually learned that Mets trainer Scott Lawrenson had invented the story out of whole cloth. Entirely believable though it may have been, the story turned out to be apocryphal.

Click past the jump for a snippet of Valentine discussing Olerud, Henderson, and Lawrenson.

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The Post's Dan Martin caught up with Ike Davis, who was a little bit of awesome and a whole lotta injured for the Mets in 2011. There was some conjecture earlier in the offseason that Davis's recuperation wasn't going splendidly and that he might not be ready to roll when Spring Training arrived. Notwithstanding some expected baseball-related oxidation, Davis feels fine and is excited to play some good old-fashioned honkball again:

"It’s great to know I’m training for a season rather than training to see if I can get back on the field or have to have surgery. I’ve been fine for a while now, so it’s what I expected. But it’s good to finally hit on the field and get this under my belt."

Davis was hitting .302/.383/.543 through the first month-plus last season before an awkward infield collision with David Wright chased him from the May 10 game in Colorado. Davis — and everyone else — figured he'd miss a few of games at most, but a couple of medical missteps, including a mistaken prescription for him to wear a boot, exacerbated what turned out to be a sprain and bone bruise of the left ankle. He managed to dodge surgery, but he couldn't avoid missing the balance of the season.

Davis is apparently healthy now, and in good spirits, plus hitting coach Dave Hudgens isn't worried about him, all of which is certainly positive news in a year that has been short on good tidings for this team.

Drafted by the Mets in the 2005 amateur draft, Bobby Parnell never exactly blew away the competition in his first four years in the minor leagues, which he spent almost exclusively as a starting pitcher. Aside from a 1.73 ERA posted in Brooklyn in his debut in 2005, Parnell struggled with his control and couldn’t put up a sub-4.00 ERA season between 2006 and 2008. That didn’t prevent him from making the Mets’ bullpen in 2009, though, where he pitched to the tune of a 3.46 ERA over 60 appearances before the Mets plugged him in to their depleted rotation late in the season. That experiment was an utter failure, as Parnell got shelled over the course of eight starts, but if there was one concern throughout the season, it was Parnell’s propensity to issue walks.

Parnell didn’t make the Opening Day roster in 2010, spending the first part of his season with Buffalo before joining the Mets in June. He went on to make 41 appearances with excellent results. Parnell struck out 22.2% of opposing batters while walking only 5.4%, and as a result, his 2.83 ERA was supported by a 2.25 FIP and 2.54 xFIP. The only concern heading into 2011 was that Parnell’s very good walk rate was entirely out of line with everything else he’d done in his professional career.

Unlike the year before, Parnell’s 2011 season began with the Mets. Unfortunately, he pitched very poorly in April, and after he was sidelined with an injury, he had to go back to Buffalo for rehab. It didn’t take long for Parnell to get back to the big leagues, and despite the time he missed, he wound up pitching 59.1 innings with the Mets. As might have been expected, Parnell’s walk rate climbed, but he helped make up for it by increasing his strikeout rate. The only downside to the season, during which he put up a 3.21 FIP, was that Parnell didn’t pitch very well when given the opportunity to close games after the Francisco Rodriguez trade.

With the Mets’ revamped bullpen for the upcoming season, it’s doubtful that Parnell will get another shot to close games unless there’s an injury or two, but he still figures to be a good arm out of the bullpen. There will be plenty of attention paid to the new guys – Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, and Jon Rauch – but like Manny Acosta, Parnell could be better. Whether or not that will happen hinges upon Parnell’s ability to cut down his walks. If all else fails, Parnell could ask everyone to call him Bob rather than Bobby to help replenish the supply of professional athletes named Bob.

We're finally here, the top five.

The funny thing is that even now as we cross the finish line, I'm re-evaluating my positions on many of these guys. And in just two short months the names will be re-shuffled once again.

Ranking prospects is such a crap shoot, which is exactly why I've said time and again that no list is the end all, be all -- not mine, not the community rankings, not Kevin Goldstein, not some dude on the street. Everyone has their own philosophies. Everyone values players slightly differently. That's the beauty of such lists and that's the fun in creating them. And reading others for that matter.

So hopefully you guys have enjoyed reading mine. I've certainly enjoyed making it. And by mid-season I'll enjoy blowing it up and starting from scratch. Such is my mania.

For anyone that's missed a segment here or there follow the links below, or scroll to the bottom of the page for a compiled version of the rankings:

#50-41 | #40-31 | #30-21 | #20-16 | #15-11 | #10-6

NOTE - For the record, I did NOT include Josh Satin in my final rankings -- though I probably should have. In my head he'd pretty much 'arrived', though he still harbors rookie eligibility and may begin 2012 in the minors. Had he been included he would have fallen somewhere in the neighborhood of no. 20-25.

5) RHP Jenrry Mejia

After Omar Minaya's lesson in how to mishandle a pitching prospect, Mejia began 2011 back where he belonged -- in the Triple-A rotation. And after his first couple of starts the bad memory of 2010 was fading away as Mejia had yet to allow an earned run in 12+ innings. However, by the end of April it was clear that something was wrong as his walks were up and his velocity was down. Then the news of Tommy John surgery dashed any hopes that the 22-yr old could recapture the momentum he had possessed one short year ago. Mejia is expected to hopefully get back on the field by mid-2012, though I'm not dinging him much for the injury as TJ rehab is bordering on routine at this point.

Unlike some of the other serious injury victims in the organization, Mejia is included on this list 1. because he actually appeared in 2011. And 2. because he's proven himself at the highest levels. That same reason explains his placement so high in the rankings. Despite the fanfare and hype for the Mets newly-crowned big 3, Mejia is the only pitcher in the Mets farm system to dominate at Double and Triple-A. The hard-throwing righty has a sub-3 ERA in 22 starts between the two levels, not to mention stuff on par with anyone in the organization. Mejia's electric mid-to-high 90's sinking fastball and developing 12-to-6 power curve give him the chance to carry that success to the next level, but it remains to be seen in which role. Sandy & Co. will likely put him back on track in the minors as a starter, but his max effort delivery, small stature (6'0") and durability questions stemming from the injury certainly lead some to believe he's a late reliever long-term.

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One week until baseball things!

Meet the Mets

If the prospect of a 70 win season hasn't scared you off, (or made you send torrents of hate tweets to @Mets GM) single game tickets and flex packs will be on sale soon. The flex packs start tomorrow, and single game tickets will be available Mrch 5th (or on stubhub during the season at half price). But you shouldn't count on cheap tix being available, because the Mets think they can be competitive. Meaningful games in September August July? Actually, I secretly think the Mets are going to be not so bad this year, maybe even above .500. Then again, it is February, the best time to have such thoughts.

Like me, Ted Berg is intrigued by Mets pitching prospect Akeel Morris. He's my best bet to rocket up prospect lists this season. I think he could be a Top 100 type with a good season at Savannah.

More prospect talk as Toby Hyde embraces controversey by ranking Josh Edgin as the 19th best prospect in the Mets system. In fairness, Toby has raved about Edgin all year, but to me this is way too high for a 25 year old reliever that hasn't even sniffed the Eastern League yet.

Did @MetsGM tweet something? You bet.

Will have to drive carefully on trip; Mets only reimburse for gas at a downhill rate. Will try to coast all the way to FL.

Sandy Alderson is the best thing to happen to the internet since pornography. Bonus points for proper use of semicolon.

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