If you want to know how a team with a $138 million payroll can miss the playoffs, take a gander at the lineup. Not that one. I mean the one in queue outside the trainer's room. Injuries are a part of the game, and some players certainly carry higher risks of injury than others. Older players and players with prior health problems are obvious candidates for a trip or two to the disabled list. Especially high-risk individuals are those injury double-threats: Aging players who have a laundry list of past ailments and afflictions (see: Alou, Moises).

Every team suffers its share of games lost to the disabled list. The Yankees had Jorge Posada, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain all spend time on the shelf; the Red Sox missed David Ortiz, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling for varying lengths of time; the Braves missed Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine at one point or another, so the Mets clearly aren't on an island with respect to busted goods.

I wanted to know exactly how many man-games the Mets lost due to injury this season. So, armed with their transaction ledger, salary data, schedule and my trusty spreadsheet, I had a look-see at how many games individual Mets players missed while on the disabled list. A few caveats:

• I only counted time on the disabled list; missed games while injured but on the active roster were not counted.
• I guesstimated slightly with respect to the day a player went on/came off the disabled list. As a rule, and to be conservative, I counted both days as days on the active roster (i.e. *not* disabled list days).
• For the sake of simplicity, I counted pitcher missed days the same as hitter missed days. I figured it wasn't worth the added complexity of figuring out missed starts, etc., so all team games were treated equally.
• I didn't include Tony Armas's or Trot Nixon's missed days because #$%^ 'em, that's why.

Having said that, here are the results:

Player	2008 Salary	Salary/Game	Missed Games	Salary Missed
Moises Alou	$7,500,000.00	$46,296.30	139.00	$6,435,185.19
Marlon Anderson	$1,050,000.00	$6,481.48	42.00	$272,222.22
Luis Castillo	$6,250,000.00	$38,580.25	65.00	$2,507,716.05
Ramon Castro	$1,975,000.00	$12,191.36	32.00	$390,123.46
Ryan Church	$2,000,000.00	$12,345.68	56.00	$691,358.02
Orlando Hernandez	$7,000,000.00	$43,209.88	162.00	$7,000,000.00
John Maine	$450,000.00	$2,777.78	34.00	$94,444.44
Pedro Martinez	$11,813,351.00	$72,921.92	54.00	$3,937,783.67
Angel Pagan	$401,500.00	$2,478.40	125.00	$309,799.38
Duaner Sanchez	$850,000.00	$5,246.91	11.00	$57,716.05
Billy Wagner	$10,500,000.00	$64,814.81	49.00	$3,175,925.93
Matt Wise	$1,200,000.00	$7,407.41	147.00	$1,088,888.89
TOTAL	$50,989,851.00	$26,229.35	916.00	$25,961,163.30

Nine-hundred and sixteen missed games at an average cost-per-game of $26,229.35 for a grand total of $25,961,163.30 of lost wages due to injury. That's almost $26 million, which will pay for C.C. Sabathia's 2009 salary, among other things. For poops and pickles, if the Mets had that money back their 2008 payroll would have been more like $112 million, not $138 million. To be honest, I have no idea how much the Mets team attrition compares to other clubs, but 916 games is a ton of missed time.

Keep in mind that I only included players whom the Mets could have reasonably expected to be on their 25-man roster for the whole season. Here's the positional breakdown:

• Starting pitching: 250 games, $11,032,228.11
• Relief pitching: 207 games, $4,322,530.86
• Infield: 65 games, $2,507,716.05
• Outfield: 195 games, $6,435,185.19
• Bench: 199 games, $972,145.06

Even with all of these injuries the Mets still had a great chance to make the playoffs this season. I'd be making excuses if I blamed their having fallen short on bad health, though it'd be equally naive to suggest that their physical breakdowns didn't play any role in their ultimate demise. To have four players from your would-be active roster miss at least 125 games apiece and not have your record suffer to some degree is unrealistic. Plenty of blame still falls on Omar Minaya for not having reasonable contingency plans for some of these guys, most notably Alou and Hernandez, who were safe bets to miss significant time in any given year. Still, a little more luck in the health department and we might not be grinding our teeth bitterly as we watch other teams take their hacks at baseball history.

One lousy single from Brad Hawpe is all that separated the Mets from the franchise's first no-hitter. I don't really care so much that the Mets have never had one. I'll take the Mets' two World Series over however many no-nos the Astros have had since 1962. Don't get me wrong: it'd be nice to get one, and it'll be really exciting and I'll scream like a schoolgirl, but I don't really lament the fact that there's never been one. The Mets have had a zillion one-hitters, and with just a tiny bit of luck they'd probably have three or four no-hitters by now. But they don't, and they didn't get one on Saturday either.

Tangibly speaking, what they got was just as good: a win, pushing their current streak to eight straight victories and moving them to within a half-game of the Phillies for first place in the NL East. I don't want to say that this seemed unfathomable a week ago, because a week ago the we were in the middle of watching the series with the Phillies and imagining how great it would be to win the last three games and wind up 2.5 games out. But that's just what happened, and then five more wins after that. The Phillies are sputtering a bit and the Cardinals aren't playing so hot, so the Mets are actually just 1.5 games back of the Wild Card. All of this is heady talk when we're only 94 games into the season, but if it was fathomable a week ago it was certainly unfathomable a couple of weeks ago.

Whatever happens tomorrow, the Mets can finish the scheduled first half of the season no worse than a game and a half out of first, and could conceivably head into the All-Star break in first place (!). It's easy to get wrapped up in all of the winning, but you're never really as good as you look when you're on a hot streak and never quite as bad as when you're on a cold streak. The Mets are awesome right now: the starting pitching has been great, the bullpen has been great, the situational hitting has been great, the role players have been great. Is Fernando Tatis going to hit like this all year? Has Mike Pelfrey figured it all out? Is Aaron Heilman back to normal?

Hey, when everybody's playing great there isn't a lot to complain about. The gripers stay away and we're all happy. I'm not going to say the Mets are doing it all with smoke and mirrors, because they are legitimately playing terrific baseball. They've won some squeakers and maybe had some good luck along the way, but great hitting, pitching and unembarrassing fielding is a rock solid formula for moving up in the standings. Moises Alou is probably done for the year, but we really weren't counting on him to contribute much anyway. Ryan Church may be back sooner rather than later, as his recent dizzy spells have been attributed to migraines and not post-concussion issues. Hell, Orlando Hernandez and Angel Pagan are both making rehab starts with St. Lucie. Neither would have a tremendous impact on this team, but both could be useful parts down the stretch.

It could all fall apart tomorrow, but right now it's a lot of fun to watch the Mets play ball, and I guess that's all I really wanted to be able to say. Go out there and win tomorrow and we end the half on a high note.

Big winners: Pedro Martinez, +21.8% WPA, Carlos Muniz, +13.8% WPA
Big losers: Nick Evans, -6.7% WPA, Argenis Reyes, -4.9% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Iannetta double-play in 4th, +10.6% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Evans strikeout with bases loaded in 4th, -6.7% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +48.7%
Total batter WPA: +1.3%

---

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by Reg Dunlop; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Name	# of Posts
Reg Dunlop	6
sireric	5
kendynamo	5
itsmetsforme	4
mmxii	4
gogomets	4
ZaBlanc	2
JohnPeterson	2
DoctorK16	2
LOUtheMETfan	1
JoshNY	1
kingcritical	1

A cursory glance at Mike Pelfrey's pitching line from last night reveals a good-but-not-necessarily-great performance.

IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	GmSc
5.0	5	2	2	2	3	0	100-66	50

The three strikeouts to two walks is nothing special, and 100 pitches thrown in five innings isn't the kind of efficiency you'd like to see out of your starting pitcher. Two numbers stand out to me, though, and neither appears in his pitching line:

10

2

The first number represents the groundball outs that Pelfrey recorded. The second number represents the flyball outs he recorded. The ratio of the two is what excited me the most about Pelfrey's start, because he is going to be a successful pitching if he can keep the ball on the ground. I wrote at length about Pelfrey back in spring training, and not to get all self-referential on you, but I said this at the time:

Against a crummy St. Louis offense, Pelfrey recorded one out via the whiff, six outs on the ground and seven outs in the air. Quite simply, a groundball ratio like that isn't going to get it done for him. With his slider and changeup as mediocre as they are right now, and his overall control nothing to write home about, Pelfrey is going to get killed if he can't generate a copious supply of groundball outs. If the fastball isn't working, forget about it.

So finally, for the first time in any start I have seen in 2008, spring training included, Pelfrey had his good sinker working for him, and the proof is in his batted ball splits. Even when he allowed base hits to the Phillies the balls were on the ground. All good signs, and extremely encouraging considering that Pelfrey is this team's number four starter now.

Offensively, the Mets racked up eight runs mostly thanks to erratic pitching and defense on the part of the Phillies. Every starting position player for the Mets walked at least once, and they drew (or were issued) nine walks overall. Angel Pagan, batting second in place of the again-injured Luis Castillo, walked twice and knocked in two runs with a double. He may not be an ideal two-hole hitter in the long run, but I don't have a problem with riding him there while he's hot.

Carlos Delgado continues to get on base, reaching twice again last night with a hit and a walk. He's hitting .357/.419/.536 in the early going and, whether or not he keeps it up, it's nice to see the big guy swinging the bat well.

In fact, other than the big three -- David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, who combined to go 0-for-12 with three walks -- everyone contributed last night. Strangely, the Mets only managed five hits overall, but the nine walks and four Philly errors made up the difference.

If you want to pick nits, after nine consecutive losses the Mets didn't really *beat* the Phillies last night as much as the Phillies beat themselves with sloppy play all over the diamond. 1-9 is a lot better than 0-10, but I'd feel a lot better if the Mets go out and win again tonight without any help from the Phillies.

Yay! The Mets have an off-day on Thursday and I was really dreading having to languish through nearly two days of bitter depression had the Mets found a way to lose the last game of the series to the Marlins. Thankfully, the Mets put the hurt on Florida last night, clobbering them by a score of 13-0 that the chortling horse to the right was kind enough to illustrate. Following the prepoculous suckfest that was Tuesday night's game it was nice to sit back and just enjoy a laugher. Here are some things that were awesome about last night.

Oliver Perez was dominant

Six innings pitched, five hits, one walk, eight strikeouts, nary a run. Ollie tossed just 93 pitches -- 59 for strikes -- and probably would have gone back out for the seventh if Willie didn't want to get his relievers some work in advance of tomorrow's mini hiatus. The 8-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is something I could definitely get used to. Perez struck out almost nine batters per nine innings last year, but he also walked more than four. If he can keep the strikeout rate steady and drop the walk rate to three per nine innings (3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio) he is going to have an incredible year. With Pedro Martinez on the shelf for 4-6 weeks (I'm guessing that'll be stretched to two months), the Mets need all the help they can get from Perez and John Maine, who will start against the Braves on Friday.

David Wright is teh r0x

Wright went 3-for-5 with a homerun, a double and three RBIs, and the double probably would have been a homerun in any park that doesn't have Dolphins Stadium's ginormous left-field scoreboard wall thingy. Wright also made two terrific plays in the field and didn't even muck them up by making wayward throws to first. The "M-V-P" chants from the mostly Met fan crowd were premature, but you've gotta love visiting team chants from the hometown crowd.

Angel Pagan is the real deal?

I'm not drinking from the Kool-Aid just yet, but I'll gladly eat crow if Pagan turns in a decent month while Moises Alou is in traction. He has four hits in ten at-bats and, perhaps more surprisingly, three walks in three games. Two of his four hits were doubles, so he has a delightfully satisfying .400/.500/.600 batting line so far this season. He picked up another two hits last night, and he's giving Willie plenty of excuses to keep Endy Chavez on the bench where he belongs. Regression to the mean is a dirty, dirty whore, but the longer Pagan can keep her waiting in the rain the better off we'll all be.

Nelson Figueroa is here

He might not be here for long, but you can't help but feel good for Nellie. He first popped up on the radar for most people when he was traded to the Phillies in 2000 in the multi-player deal that sent Curt Schilling to the Diamondbacks. He missed all of 2005 following rotator cuff surgery and spent 2006 with Triple-A New Orleans, then a Washington Nationals affiliate. He played 2007 with Los Dorados de Chihuahua of the Mexican League before heading to Taiwan in September of last year to join the Uni-President Lions of the Chinese Professional Baseball League for their playoff run. He won the first game of the first round playoff series before appearing in three games in the championship series -- Games 1, 4 and 7 -- winning them all and being named series MVP. (Source = Wikipedia).

Ryan Church needs a homerun slogan

When Church desposited his two-run bomb into the right-field bleachers in the second inning, I blurted out "Time to go to Church!" without even really thinking. Kim looked at me like I was from another planet, so I repeated it, "Time to go to Church!", in case she hadn't actually heard me the first time. She had, apparently, but even her indifference towards my impromptu slogan-creating awesomeness wasn't enough to dampen my spirits. I'm not sure if it'll stick, and I'm willing to consider alternatives (leave 'em in the comments!), but until something better comes along, whenever Ryno parks one there'll be at least one guy in Jersey shouting, "Time to go to Church!"

Spring training games -- or, more specifically, player performances in spring training games -- are meaningless, and I don't know that I can stress this point enough. It's easy to get wrapped up in spring stats, to look at Raul Casanova and remark, "Wow, this guy is slugging .629! How the heck could Tampa Bay let this guy go?" The obvious answer, at least to anyone with at least an elementary understanding of sample sizes and random variation, is that Casanova, given a couple hundred plate-apps, would more closely replicate his pathetic career marks of .234/.301/.380 accrued over 1026 at-bats than the .314/.368/.629 that he has hit in an impossibly inconsequential 35 spring at-bats.

Casanova is just one of hundreds, if not thousands, of players who have ever had a spring training performance remarkably out of line with their career norms. "But he's in the best shape of his life", a random uninformed friend or possibly Dusty Baker might reply. Perhaps, but to make an ostensibly intelligent roster decision based on such a small number of plate appearances against arbitrary and often woeful competition is lunacy, especially when you consider how much money is riding on the success or failure of baseball teams in general and the Mets in particular.

I don't mean to single out Casanova, whom the Mets might have to promote to begin the season with Ramon Castro probably heading for the disabled list. Casanova might actually be a bad example because, given a blessing of good team health, he wouldn't be competing for a big league spot at all. A better example is the guy who is trying to distinguish himself from the pack in order to slide into a big league role that would really be available to him even if the rest of the team were healthy.

Two guys who *are* competing for an actual spot are Angel Pagan and Brady Clark, both of whom might make the club with Moises Alou out of action for the next month and the Mets' likely inclination to carry an extra position player in the season's early going. Neither is a terrific player, but the Mets don't really have any superior options immediately available to them. Or, at least options that wouldn't require giving up some non-existent minor league talent in return.

The Mets are also trying to finalize their Opening Day bullpen, a task which is still on the "To Do" pile and the results of which may hinge -- somewhat remarkably -- on the principals' performances in the last two exhibition games of the spring. That's right: forget everything anyone has done in their major or minor league careers up until this point. Those large sample sizes collected over a period of months or years? Not arbitrary enough. Instead, let's pick two random games -- say, the next two -- and base some fairly important baseball operations decisions on the decidedly random performances in said two games. It sounds completely ludicrous, but it's exactly what the Mets are doing. To wit:

The Mets don't know [what's going to happen], either. Two exhibition games now remain, and manager Willie Randolph has made it clear that he's willing -- almost eager -- to use both of them. His decisions need perspective; these games will provide it.

The article linked above was written by Anthony DiComo for Mets.com. I can't really tell if DiComo is editorializing something that Randolph has actually said -- that is, that he will base his decision(s) for the final bullpen spot(s) on the microcosmic results of the next two games -- or if this comment is DiComo's alone. I think we know that Randolph hasn't made up his mind yet, and he will really wait to see what happens tomorrow and Saturday before deciding to go one way or another. I don't think that I am exaggerating the truth when I say that Willie Randolph is going to construct the back end of the Mets' bullpen according to the events of two utterly meaningless spring training games. If he weren't, he would have already made his cuts and his promotions at this point. If we assume that he doesn't yet know which relievers will round out the bullpen, then it's pretty clear that everything that happened before today has not provided sufficient empirical evidence to sway him one way or another.

I'm not sure if there's a portmanteau rich enough to describe my feelings about this, but here goes: it's prepoculous. Preposterous and ridiculous. That's right: suck it, Carroll!

"His decisions need perspective; these games will provide it." How? How could they possibly provide any perspective other than that of sheer randomness? If Matt Wise goes out there and pitches like dogshit tomorrow while Mr. 6.46-career-ERA-mostly-as-a-reliever Brian Stokes pitches three scoreless innings, Stokes makes the Opening Day cut and Wise takes a long walk off a short pier? The level of asininity required to make a call like that is beyond comprehension, and yet it is almost certainly going to happen sometime in the next two days. Perhaps multiple times.

All we can do is throw up our hands in unbridled bewilderment and hope that the better players happen to actually perform better in these next two arbitrarily-selected talent showcases.