In Arizona:

• Jason Vargas allowed one run on four hits in 2.0 innings.
• Tobi Stoner allowed three runs on three hits and a walk in 1.2 innings.
• Daniel Murphy was still nowhere to be found.

In the Dominican Republic:

• Fernando Tatis went 0-for-3 with a walk.

In Puerto Rico:

• Nick Evans went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts.
• Eddie Camacho struck out one in a perfect inning of relief.
• Jesus Feliciano went 2-for-4 with a double, a walk and two runs scored.

At MetsGeek, Mike Newman wonders if Mets prospects are especially overhyped, and, if so, how they come to be overhyped.

At RotoGraphs, Brian Joura talks about David Wright and how high he should go in your typical fantasy draft. The bottom line: If you pick third overall, Wright shouldn't be around by the time you make your first-round selection.

At FanGraphs, Eric Seidman talks about Pedro Martinez and his future in the big leagues. His Marcel projection isn't too hot, though the Bill James projection is very optimistic.

Buried in his most recent chat, Rob Neyer mentions that his ESPN.com blog will be coming out from behind the Insider pay wall. His latest entry should be available to all. The URL still points to Insider, but I was able to read it without being logged into my friend's Insider account, so, yay!

Phillies blog The700Level wades through some of professional sports' biggest locales to find the biggest city rival to Philadelphia. It doesn't take them long to call off the search.

Hawaiian Winter Baseball

Honolulu Sharks 2, North Shore Honu 1

• Ruben Tejada went 1-for-4 with a strikeout and a throwing error (.288/.323/.373).
• Jordan Abruzzo went 2-for-4 with an RBI (.220/.250/.260).
• Greg Veloz went 0-for-4 (.203/.280/.230).
• Junior Guerra pitched 1.1 innings of relief, allowing a walk and striking out one.
• Roy Merritt pitched 1.2 innings of relief, allowing a walk and striking out two.

Domincan Winter League

Azucareros del Este 5, Leones del Escogido 4

• Argenis Reyes went 1-for-5 with a double (.256/.360/.302).
• Abraham Nunez went 0-for-3 with two walks and a run scored (.400/.571/.500).

El Duque filed for free agency yesterday. He made $9 million last season to do nothing. Au revoir!

David Wright is not bitter about the Phillies' world title, but rather motivated. The Phillies were a slightly better team than the Mets, with the bullpen making up the entire difference and then some. I was talking about this with a good friend of mine who also happens to be a Phillies fan, and about the (obvious) impact a closer with no blown saves would have on any team. If the Mets didn't blow any ninth-inning leads, they would've won upwards of a hundred games. Of course, they blew a ton of ninth-inning leads, as well as any number of eighth-inning leads. Those are the breaks.

SI.com leaked the full list of Type A and Type B free agents on Friday. ESPN.com's free agent tracker does the same, though it also includes unranked free agents. Oliver Perez is a Type A; Moises Alou is a Type B. The Mets obviously have to offer Perez arbitration. Even if he accepts, a one-year deal at whatever money is hardly a big problem. Smart money is on he and Boras taking the biggest, longest contract offered, and the Mets would recoup some of the picks they are bound to lose when they sign free agents of their own (Derek Lowe and Brian Fuentes are both Type As).

MLB is setting up shop in Secaucus, NJ, as the headquarters for their forthcoming cable network.

Football fans, head over to Big Blue View (Giants) and/or Gang Green Nation (Jets) for coverage and gamethreads.

Arizona Fall League

Peoria Saguaros 11, Phoenix Desert Dogs 3

• Josh Thole went 3-for-5 with two RBI and two runs scored.
• Tobi Stoner pitched two scoreless innings of relief, walking two and striking out one.
• Eddie Kunz pitched a perfect ninth, striking out one.

Hawaiian Winter Baseball

North Shore Honu 5, Honolulu Sharks 1

• Ruben Tejada went 1-for-3 with a walk and a run scored. He also stole a base.
• Greg Veloz went 0-for-3 with a walk.
• Josh Stinson started the game and got shelled, allowing four runs in 2.2 innings on three hits and six walks. Bleah.

Dominican Winter League

Leones del Escogido 14, Aguilas Cibaenas 12

• Argenis Reyes went 2-for-4 with a walk, a stolen base, two RBI and three runs scored.
• Ambiorix Concepcion went 1-for-1 with a walk, two RBI and a run scored.
• Fernando Martinez went 0-for-2.
• Abraham Nunez went 1-for-4 with a walk and a run scored.
• Luis Terrero went 1-for-4 with a run scored and a HBP.

David Wright is the top ranked NL 3B according to the latest Elias player rankings. ESPN.com seems to have the full list of As and Bs, and this page has the top-ranked player at each position for both leagues.

Mets Tailgate takes a look at Javier Vazquez, who is likely available and probably underrated. Vazquez's walk and strikeout rates have always impressed me, and I consider myself a big fan even though his ERAs have usually been so-so. The White Sox are reportedly making him available, and Vazquez is owed $23 million for 2009 and 2010 combined.

Six Mets filed for free agency on Friday: Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou, Ramon Martinez, Tony Armas, Luis Ayala and Ricardo Rincon. Damion Easley, Oliver Perez and Matt Wise all filed on Thursday.

At FanGraphs, Dave Cameron runs down the 2008 All Free Agent Bargain Team.

Chase Utley has a dirty !@#$ing mouth.

Paul DePodesta runs down The Plan. A lot of it seems like a fairly intuitive way to run an organization, but it's pretty great that someone of DePodesta's stature would actually put fingers to keys and put this plan on the internets for all to see.

Arizona Fall League

National Rising Stars 7, American Rising Stars 6

• Daniel Murphy started at DH for the American Rising Stars and walked and was caught stealing in his only plate appearance.
• Josh Thole was 1-for-1 with a walk and an RBI single.
• Eddie Kunz had another ruff [sic] outing, blowing a save by allowing two hits, a walk and a run in two-thirds of an inning.

Hawaiian Winter Baseball

West Oahu CaneFires 8, Honolulu Sharks 2

• Greg Veloz went 0-for-4 and is hitting .219/.296/.234 overall.
• Scott Shaw started for the Sharks and allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks in 2.2 innings. He struck out two and picked up the loss.
• Junior Guerra allowed four runs on four hits and two walks in two-thirds of an inning of relief.

Domincan Winter League

Leones del Escogido 10, Gigantes del Cibao 2

• Victor Mendez (CF-Gigantes) went 1-for-3.
• Julio Polcano (LHP-Gigantes) allowed a run on two hits and a walk in an inning of relief.
• Argenis Reyes (2B-Leones) went 1-for-3 with a walk.
• Abraham Nunez (2B-Leones) went 0-for-0 with a walk.
• Fernando Martinez (LF-Leones) went 1-for-5 with a double and three RBI.
• Ambiorix Concepcion (CF-Leones) went 0-for-1.

Azucareros del Este 3, Aguilas Cibaenas 2

• Eude Brito (LHP-Azucareros) picked up a hold (?) in a third of an inning of relief.
• Luis Terrero (CF-Aguilas) went 1-for-3 with a stolen base.

Tigres del Licey 7, Estrellas de Oriente 4

• Fernando Tatis (DH-Estrellas) went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts but is hitting .393/.452/.643 overall.

Mexican Pacific League

Mayos de Navojoa 7, Aguilas de Mexicali 4

• Carlos Muniz (RHP-Mexicali) allowed four walks in two-thirds of an inning, which rightfully earned him a hold.

Venezuelan Winter League

Navegantes del Magallanes 12, Tiburones de La Guaira 3

• Gustavo Molina (C-Magallanes) went 2-for-5 with a two-run homer and three RBI.
• Jose Sanchez (RHP-Magallanes) allowed two runs on five hits and a walk in 2.2 innings of relief, striking out four.
• Edgar Alfonzo (LHP-Magallanes) picked up the win in relief, allowing one hit and no runs in 1.1 innings.

Tigres de Aragua 9, Caribes de Anzoategui 1

• Jose Rojas (RHP-Caribes) allowed one hit and struck out one in an inning of relief.

Aggregate winter league stats for all Mets players can be found at MLB.com.

Rob Neyer comments on the rumor that the Mets may go after Derek Lowe and Brian Fuentes, calling both pitchers "impeccable", with some reservations about Lowe's age.

Tim Marchman has a nice article up about playoff LOOGYs.

The Dodgers have allegedly offered Manny Ramirez a two-year, $60 million deal to stay in Los Angeles. The deal will almost surely be rebuffed by Scott Boras, who is seeking as many as six years for the enigmatic outfielder.

Jon Heyman writes that Russell Martin may be wearing out his welcome in L.A. Martin's plate discipline improved nicely from 2007 to 2008, as he increased his unintentional walk total from 66 to 82. His power took a nosedive, though, as he collected 16 fewer extra-base hits in 30 more plate appearances. He's only 25 and there's every reason to believe he'll get better, so his will be an interesting story to watch this winter.

The Sporting News announced their end-of-season awards, and David Wright was named to the NL All-Star Team while Fernando Tatis was named NL Comeback Player of the Year. Tatis was also the Players' Choice for the same award as voted on by the MLBPA.

We've got the first glimpse into 2003-2008 UZR, as Tom Tango breaks down some of MGL's proprietary zone ratings. Carlos Beltran, Endy Chavez and Jose Valentin (!) good; Carlos Delgado bad.

I  have a very low tolerance for the utterance of stupidity. Therefore, I tend to avoid listening to WFAN for anything other than game broadcasts and never turn on my TV for a night game before 6:30 lest the final moments of Loud Mouths induce an urge to fling my remote at the screen. There is one exception to this rule, however: the (usually) weekly mailbag column on mets.com, a mixture of often absurd questions from Mets fans, answered in often equally absurd fashion by friendly neighborhood beat writer Marty Noble. It's the gift that keeps on giving, providing a number-happy, snarky Mets fan with the material to indulge her most Fire Joe Morgan-esque impulses. Follow along with this week's mailbag as I poke some fun at the contents:

The first question is from a reader who wasn't happy with Marty naming David Wright as the Mets' most valuable player. Noble starts off with a fairly reasonable defense, reminding us that having a bad batting average with runners in scoring position this year does not negate Wright being really, really good at baseball. But then he takes it a bit too far:

The MVP ballots distributed to the 60 voting members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America include few instructions, but they do urge the constituency to consider the numbers of games played by candidates. Wright played in 160, Santana made 34 starts.

This is the sort of argument that's usually advanced to justify excluding pitchers from MVP consideration, and quite frankly it's a load of bull. If you think of baseball as a series of pitcher/batter confrontations, it stands to reason that the more showdowns a player participates in, the more opportunities he has to impact the outcome of a game. In 2008, David Wright had 736 plate appearances. Johan Santana faced 964 batters.

There's a reason so few starters win MVP Awards, or even place among the leading candidates.

...

And by the way, when Santana was elected unanimously as the American League Cy Young Award winner in 2006, he placed seventh in the MVP balloting, one place behind teammate Joe Mauer, and well behind MVP Justin Morneau, also a teammate.

There's a message in that.

That message has nothing to do with whether a player is deserving of MVP consideration and everything to do with how those who get to vote see things. (Also, if one wishes to argue for the wisdom of those who cast MVP ballots, referencing the year that Morneau won despite having two clearly superior teammates probably isn't the best example to use.)

Later on, there's a question about the coaching staff:

Who do you think will round out the coaching staff for 2009? It's important to bring in more qualified people. Luis Aguaya did a bad job. Some others I would like to see get a chance would be Gary Carter, Wally Bachman or maybe Bobby Valentine -- still one of the best baseball minds -- as a bench coach.
-- Stephen W., Poughkeepsie, N.Y.

I'm not sure what's funnier: the misspellings of Aguayo and Backman or the idea of Bobby V. returning to the Mets as a bench coach, something that seems about as likely as a snowball fight in hell.

Another reader asks Marty for his take on the "Ryan Church doesn't like playing in New York" rumor, and I'm still trying to figure out what Noble means by

In a word, no. If I he was uncomfortable, he performed quite well before the second concussion.

Finally, we have our Reality-Challenged Trade Proposal of the Week:

I would like the Mets to forget about Carlos Delgado (old and better-suited for the AL) and Oliver Perez (not worth the money he will demand). I'd prefer they pursue Mark Teixeira as a free agent and a trade for Jake Peavy. The money would be better spent for a younger, switch-hitting first baseman, and since the Padres are shopping Peavy, who likes the NL, why not take a shot?
-- Shawn, Albany, N.Y.

There's no way that the Mets can acquire Peavy without doing something utterly stupid and self-destructive, so naturally we'll be hearing plenty of rumors about him all winter.

No sooner has the 2008 season ended than we're blessed with the first batch of 2009 projections. These come courtesy of ACTA Sports and The Bill James Handbook. The BJH will be availabe on November 1st, months ahead of most of the other baseball annuals, which is great because we get numbers to play with, though we have to accept that the rosters here could change quite a bit by the time next season rolls around.

Here we go.

Let's remember that these are just projections. Some numbers and algorithms went into a computer and these popped out. That's a really simplistic way of looking at what is surely a very complex system, and I don't describe it that way to make light of all of the work that goes into developing and implementing a projection system. Forecasting ballplayers may seem like a frivolous use of time, but there is little doubt that most if not all big league teams use player projections of some form or another. They'd be crazy not to use the many years of baseball data that exists to analyze the likelihood of certain performance results for free agents, players on their own team or potential trade targets on other teams. Projections don't tell us what is guaranteed to happen, but they do tell us what could very likely happen, and that should at least be a part of any reasonable player analysis, whether you're in a big league front office or a humble website sending information through this sophisticated series of tubes we call the internets.

Some thoughts on the Mets, bullet-wise.

• Marlon Anderson should be jettisoned post-haste. He is not better than Val Pascucci. I'm not sure he's better than Morten Anderson. Why was it necessary to sign him for two years? Anyone?
• Carlos Voltron is a god.
• Luis Castillo is a Met.
• Can Brian Schneider never start again? Can Ramon Castro please stay healthy? The 80 points separating their OPS projections is not insignificant.
• Endy Chavez isn't much of a hitter, though he could be one of the most undervalued commodities in baseball.
• Ryan Church's projection isn't terrible, but it's not great, either. For comparison, Lastings Milledge's projection is .281/.347/.439. I don't feel so well.
• Carlos Delgado, not so bad. The computer thinks Carlos will continue his resurgence and put up an OPS similar to his 2008 mark, which is middle of the pack among big league first basemen.
• Damion Easley: Time to retire.
• Mark my words: Nick Evans will not OPS .829. Nice thought, though.
• Fernando Martinez: Not ready for the big time yet.
• Daniel Murphy is the Irish Hammer. Close your eyes. Now picture the Irish Hammer. Now picture him hitting .296/.371/.478 as a 24-year-old. Now picture him doing it at second base. Feel better? How did you read all of that with your eyes closed, eh? Cheater.
• I'm a little disappointed in Jose Reyes's projection. That .798 OPS would be a 35-point dropoff from his 2008 line. I'll take the over on this one.
• Is it wrong to wish that Brian Schneider had been driving that car in DR and not Ambiorix Burgos? Yea. Probably.
• The Mets could do far worse than Fernando Tatis as a righty bat off the bench, Or: Sixteen words I couldn't have fathomed writing a year ago.
• David Wright: Yea, let's trade this bum.

I'll post the pitcher projections tomorrow, and then some free agent/trade target projections on Wednesday.

I took the last couple of days off from writing for a couple of reasons. Primarily it was to just take a mental breather from the madness of the Mets' season. Writing about the Mets day in and day out can be suffocating in a lot of ways, especially to my psychological well being. Though you didn't necessarily plan on doing so, you guys filled in for me with a couple of posts I promoted to the front page as well as a number of other FanPosts and FanShots. One of the greatest assets of a community such as this one is that I could literally disappear for a day or two and you'd hardly notice because you're all capable of generating brilliant, original content of your own on a seemingly daily basis. So, keep on rockin' it because I'll keep promoting it.

Anyway, since we last spoke we've seen a lot of shoddy journalistic efforts (not here) that purport to fix the Mets by breaking up their core of incredible, young talent because of some perceived lack of "heart" or "guts" or whatever meaningless baseball platitude they thought might make good copy. I can find some merit in almost any makeover plan, even if I don't necessarily agree with all of the tactics of reconstruction. Whatever the Mets' shortcomings this past season, whatever areas are in need of overhaul to varying degrees, the following players had better be on the team when the team takes to Citi Field next spring:

• David Wright
• Jose Reyes
• Johan Santana
• Carlos Beltran
• Mike Pelfrey

Whatever reasons you can concoct for why the Mets didn't make the playoffs this season -- injuries, porous bullpen, lack of positional depth, age-related regression -- these five players are part of the solution, not part of the problem. Even if Bob Klapisch doesn't understand this, I do believe that Omar Minaya does. Whatever his failings as a general manager, he understands the value of superstars -- especially young-ish ones -- and the Mets have four of them and a burgeoning star in Pelfrey. If you want to find the problems with this roster, look elsewhere. There's nothing to see here.

I don't want to hear that these players aren't clutch or that they don't know how to win, that the current core can't get it done or that they've somehow established a culture of losing in Queens. Those words don't mean anything to me. If you think he sucks, tell me why he sucks. Don't speak subjectively about character-based intangibles which, even if they did exist and had perceptible value, a sportswriter (or any writer) would have no business understanding anyway. Explain in what tangible areas these players are lacking and the realistic scenarios in which the Mets might dispense with them and actually receive reasonable value in return. The obvious explanation is that such scenarios don't actually exist, which is exactly why sportswriters fall back on the aforementioned tired baseball platitudes to support their irrational ideas in the first place.

I'll spend the coming days talking more about the 2008 season and where I think the Mets should focus their efforts this offseason. Spoiler alert: Bullpen, rotation, bench. For now, don't forget to check out SB Nation sites Halos Heaven (Angels), South Side Sox (White Sox), DRays Bay (Rays), Over The Monster (Red Sox), True Blue LA (Dodgers), Bleed Cubbie Blue (Cubs), Brew Crew Ball (Brewers), and The Good Phight (Phillies) for the best playoff coverage on the nets.

Johan Santana was the story again tonight, as he has been most times he pitches. He struck out ten batters for the fourth time this season, and recorded 20 swinging strikes, matching his season-high. He also picked up that bizarre infield hit in the fifth that bounced off of the mound AND the shattered barrel of his own bat, which had spun and flown between the mound and second base. Santana would eventually come around to score the go-ahead run on David Wright's two-out, two-run single, and scored again on Jose Reyes's bases-loaded triple in the sixth.

Santana also threw a career-high 125 pitches, but given the way Pedro Feliciano handled the four-run lead he was handed in the ninth inning, I don't think anyone will question Jerry Manuel's desire to leave Santana out there as long as possible. Santana has now thrown 3,481 pitches this season compared to 3,335 in 2007 and 3,450 in 2006, so he's certainly within his established range. With any luck, the Mets will play competently over the next four days and Santana won't have to come back to pitch the Mets into the playoffs against the Marlins on Sunday.

The Phillies lost at home to the Braves, so the Mets are just a game back in the loss column with five to play. The Brewers came from behind to beat the Pirates, so the Mets' lead in the Wild Card race remains a single game. On Wednesday, Oliver Perez takes on Carlos Zambrano, who will probably only stick around for five innings or so.

Big winners: David Wright, +29.8% WPA, Johan Santana, +15.1% WPA
Big losers: Carlos Beltran, -14.8% WPA, Pedro Feliciano, -2.0% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Wright two-run double, +22.7% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Fukudome RBI double, -10.0% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +16.7%
Total batter WPA: +33.3%
GWRBI: David Wright

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by LOUtheMETSfan; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

This was a game the Mets could've and should've won, but they didn't win it, and now they're as far back in the NL East -- 1.5 games -- as they are up in the Wild Card race. The Mets have seven games left, and they could just as easily win the NL East outright as they could miss out on the playoffs altogether.

Wow, was this one a stinker. The Mets collected eight hits and eight walks, scored six runs but left nine men on base. The offense was actually okay overall. They didn't take advantage of a number of chances to build on their early 4-2 lead, but they carried that lead into the seventh and a 4-3 lead into the eighth, where four Mets relievers conspired to allow four runs on four hits and two walks. Jerry Manuel gets an assist for leaving Scott Schoeneweis in to face right-handed Omar Infante, who doubled and scored the first run of the inning.

And.. uhh.. Aaron Heilman, jeez, what can we do? I'm starting to feel bad for the guy, but the sad fact is that he simply can't be counted on to do anything positive for this team right now. Sure, on the whole the bullpen is a morass of ineptitude, but Heilman is the bog monster that keeps them entrenched in the muck. I still support him because he's a good guy, he's homegrown, and he has a history of being a very good reliever for the Mets. Right now, though, it's hard to find anything good to say about him. I don't know if he's injured or just having a miserable year, but he's death on this team every time he goes out there.

I was more than a little surprised to see Damion Easley pinch-hitting for Ryan Church in the ninth. Church has been pretty useless at the plate recently, but Easley can't even run straight at full speed. I've gotta think that Church is a better option at this point, even given his struggles and the lefty-lefty matchup (though he has hit a respectable .273/.330/.424 against lefties this year). Carlos Delgado's two-run homer earlier that inning made things interesting, but Easley surprised nobody by striking out to end the game.

The Phillies' and Brewers' victories cost the Mets a game in each playoff race, but they're still in pretty good shape for the Wild Card if they can cobble together three or four wins this week. Of course, if the Wild Card winner comes out of the NL East it gets a first-round matchup with the Cubs, and can count on seeing Carlos Zambrano or Rich Harden at least three or four times in a five-game series.

Ah well, onward and upward. Those aforementioned Cubbies roll into Shea for four games beginning Monday. Chicago has already clinched the NL Central crown, and manager Lou Piniella has said that his starters won't go more than five innings apiece (except perhaps for Monday's starter Jason Marquis), and we may see a mish-mash of starters and September callups throughout the series. The Mets need to cash in on any advantage they can, so if the Cubs want to take it easy this week they'll get no complaints from me.

Big winners: David Wright, +21.4% WPA, Carlos Delgado, +19.0% WPA
Big losers: Scott Schoeneweis, -34.0% WPA, Joe Smith, -24.7% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Wright homerun, +17.4% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Francoeur triple, -24.7% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -49.5%
Total batter WPA: -0.5%
GWRBI: Martin Prado

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by LOUtheMETSfan; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Brewers? Blown out. Phillies? Smacked down in Miami. Mets? Opened a can of whoop-tooshie in Atlanta. Things looked pretty bleak a few days ago, and things could certainly look bleak again a few days hence, but in once night the Mets vaulted into first place in the NL East, a half-game ahead of the Phillies (a game up in the loss column), and 2.5 games in front of the Brewers in the would-be Wild Card race.

Good results aside, this wasn't exactly a meticulously played game on the Mets' part. Three errors, four pitchers in the seventh inning, but hey, a win, and the Irish Hammer picked up the GWRBI without even starting. Nick Evans hit a monstrous homerun and added a walk. Remember these guys? They were a pretty solid platoon a few weeks ago before Fernando Tatis began starting every day. Tatis is gone for the regular season, at least, and it's great to see the kids go out there and make things happen.

Jose Reyes: September swoon? Maybe not. Kid went 3-for-4 with a leadoff homerun, a walk and a steal. All of the Mets' regulars picked up at least one hit; David Wright and Carlos Delgado picked up two each.

Oliver Perez was ehh: Six hits, three walks and four runs in six innings. The length was solid, and I guess he gets some bonus points for keeping the Mets in the game, but the Braves have a skeleton crew out there so let's not get too excited about that.

The Mets turn to Pedro Martinez to hopefully pull his ass out of the Queens gutter tomorrow night against Jorge Campillo.

Big winners: Daniel Murphy, +30.3% WPA, Jose Reyes, +22.4% WPA
Big losers: Nelson Figueroa,-32.7% WPA, Ryan Church, -12.3% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Murphy two-run double in 8th, +30.3% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Prado singlein 7th, -18.2% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -16.0%
Total batter WPA: +63.9%
GWRBI: Daniel Murphy

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by LOUtheMETSfan; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.