The last two days we looked at The Bill James Handbook projections for Mets hitters and pitchers. That's fun and all, but one thing we've had to acknowledge is that any number of those players won't actually be on the Mets next season (I'm looking at you, Marlon Anderson!). So let's have a crack at some players who spent 2008 elsewhere but have varying degrees of likelihood of landing in Queens this offseason.

The Mets may have as many as three rotation spots to fill and as many as two three all of their bullpen spots that need plugging. There are a lot of options out there in both buckets, and the Mets will spend plenty of time this winter trying to make the staff over.

We'll do pitchers today, position players tomorrow. First the starters.

Lots of interesting names on this list. I threw Jake Peavy up there just for kicks, even though there's next to zero chance the Mets will trade for him. Still, those numbers are purty, and they're *not* park-adjusted yet.

• A.J. Burnett is a strikeout machine, but he's 32 and has a history of so-so control and arm trouble. He's a better pitcher than Oliver Perez, for sure, but he's also five years older and will probably make more money per year. The Mets could do worse, but if you're going to spend $16 million a year on Burnett, why not just spend $23 million (or whatever) on C.C. Sabathia?
• Ryan Dempster was terrific for the Cubs this year, but should we judge him on 207 great innings of 2.96 ERA in 2008 or 1195 career innings of 4.64 ERA as a starter?
• Jon Garland will only be 29 next year, but he has terrible strikeout marks and isn't even really a groundball pitcher. He has very good control, but is that enough?
• Perhaps the most interesting name on this list is Randy Johnson, who had outstanding peripherals as a 44-year-old in 2008. We know he had problems in New York when he played with the Yankees, but on a one-year deal he would be a decent risk. I don't think it'll happen because I think the Mets would be gun-shy about his experience in the Bronx, but it would probably work out better than most people suspect.
• The biggest problem with Derek Lowe -- and it's definitely a problem -- is his age. He's basically been awesome for the Dodgers these past four seasons. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, has good control and strikes out enough batters to keep 'em honest (whatever that means). Are you going to hand out $12 million a year for three years to a 36-year-old? It's a tough sell. I might go for a two-year deal with a team option, though I feel like someone will go to three.
• Sabathia isn't as good as Peavy, but he's the same age and would cost only money and a first-round pick. He throws a ton of innings, which is both good and bad. He's going to cost Johan Santana money, and while it would be tough to pony up $50 million for two pitchers, imagine running those two out there for two games apiece in the LDS.
• I'm a huge Ben Sheets fan: He strikes out a lot of batters, he walks very few. He's also had a laundry list of injuries and would be a colossal risk on any deal that wasn't year-to-year.
• Randy Wolf is a BLAIM (Below League Average Innings Muncher). 200 innings of 4.30 ERA has plenty of value on the open market. Could the Mets do better? Sure. They could also do worse (see: Pedro Martinez circa 2008).

Now the relievers.

There are more guys than those listed, but this is a pretty good sampling of what's out there. We've got young and old, righty and lefty, closers and middle relief.

• Everybody hates Kyle Farnsworth, and though he isn't really closer material, he could certainly contribute to a quality bullpen if used appropriately.
• Brian Fuentes is probably my top choice to close for the Mets next year. His platoon splits are fairly even, despite using a sidearm delivery from the left side that is commonly susceptible to right-handed batters. He'll be 33 next year, but three years of Fuentes seems preferable to six years of Francisco Rodriguez.
• Trevor Hoffman probably won't ever leave San Diego, but he'd be a decent signing for a year if the Padres committed to rebuilding. He has great control and still strikes out a lot of batters even though his fastball tops out in the mid-to-high eighties.
• I'm not really a huge Brandon Lyon fan. He's interesting, and has good control, but he's really a bridge guy. Could be useful in mid-to-late innings.
• Will Ohman stunk for two years in Chicago before turning in a nice season with the Braves last year. The Mets could do worse in the middle innings.
• Arthur Rhodes is like a hundred years old and he's not so hot against righties, but he dominates lefties like nobody's business. There's probably no room for him if the Mets still have Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis, but none of that is set in stone.
• Juan Rincon used to be a dominant setup man in Minnesota, but then he got busted for steroids and has been mostly terrible the past seasons.
• Francisco Rodriguez is the prize of the free agent relief market, but I have a hard time dumping six years and $100 million on him. He's not quite as good as his saves record might indicate to someone who actually cares about that sort of thing. He's no better than the fourth-best closer in the AL; is that worth breaking the bank?
• Kerry Wood is another interesting name. Would come far more cheaply than Rodriguez with comparable peripherals.

We'll do non-Mets batters tomorrow.

Seven hours or so until the non-waiver trade deadline and all is quiet on the Mets' front. The odd rumor about Raul Ibanez or Arthur Rhodes appears to have faded into the background as names like Ivan Rodriguez, Kyle Farnsworth and Latroy Hawkins change teams. Not that I'd be especially interested in any of those guys, though Pudge would represent an upgrade over Brian Schneider, if not so much over Ramon Castro (Pudge's otherworldly gamer-ness and clutchitude notwithstanding).

A few years ago, a team like the Reds that had no intention of resigning a player like Adam Dunn would just trade him to whomever would give them the best return. Now, thanks largely to Billy Beane, the Reds know that holding onto Dunn and allowing him to walk away at the end of the season means two fat draft picks for them next June. Armed with that information, the Reds can insist on a return that they value at least as much as those picks. If they don't find another team willing to pony up the players or prospects to meet or exceed the perceived value of those picks, well the Reds will just close up shop, book a couple of months worth of Dunn bombs and then wave goodbye in October.

Ibanez is in a similar position, though he isn't nearly as valuable as Dunn in the short- or long-term. Regardless, he will likely be a Type A free agent this offseason and would be worth the same two draft picks as Dunn or Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez or any other Type A. Were the current compensation system burned and discarded, the Mariners couldn't hope to get much more than a Carlos Muniz for Ibanez. As it stands, they're asking for Jon Niese or Robert Parnell, and the Mets are wise not to budge on those demands. If the Mets could get Ibanez for a couple of so-so prospects it'd be a coup, if only for the draft picks, and I guess the slightly-better-than-marginal upgrade that Ibanez represents over Endy Chavez. Chavez is a crummy hitter, but Ibanez is nothing to write home about, and over the course of 60 games the difference is almost negligible. Of course, the Mets proved last year that every game counts (as if we didn't already know that), so I suppose every little bit helps.

One rumor yesterday indicated that the Diamondbacks offered Chad Tracy for Dunn. That sounds like a pretty good deal for the Reds, and the Mets probably can't compete with that. The closest they have to Tracy would be Mike Carp, who has hit well at Binghamton. The caveat there is that he is repeating the league, so his performance is a little less impressive than it might have been last season.

Some small part of me thinks that Omar Minaya will pull off a last-minute deal for a name that we haven't even heard. I keep harping on Aaron Harang for some reason, mostly because he is still reasonably aged, is signed to a decent contract, and may actually be a bit undervalued this year as a result of his 4.76 ERA (95 ERA+). His peripheral stats are all very strong: 108 strikeouts, 34 walks in 123.0 innings. His .331 BABIP is quite a bit higher than his career norm of .314 and well above the usual league norm (~.300). His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.24, which is a half-run lower than his actual ERA. Maybe he's run into a bit of bad luck this season. Again, as I've mentioned each time I've fawned over Harang these past few days, there's no real reason to believe that he's available, considering all of those things I just mentioned. Still, I have a funny feeling that Minaya might pull something out of his ass. He's got seven hours, so he better get some lube.

Then again, the non-waiver trade deadline is exactly that: the last day players can be traded from one team to another without having to pass through waivers. As we've seen in recent years, plenty of transactions take place in August despite the specter of waiver claims hanging over any deal. I don't necessarily think that a Manny Ramirez would clear waivers without being plucked by some team, but Jarrod Washburn or someone like that could. So, even if the Mets don't get anything done by 4pm EDT that doesn't mean they won't try to improve the team in August.