Another trade deadline has come and gone, and even though lots of big names have new addresses, the Mets haven't changed a bit. Some pundits (like this asshat, for example) will take the Mets and GM Omar Minaya to task for not making an effort to improve a team with playoff aspirations that has so many clear and identifiable weaknesses. The upshot is that the Mets *did* make an effort, they just didn't find anything out there to their liking.

I have criticized Minaya plenty of times in this space, usually for good reason, and I and others have wondered whether he would selfishly risk the medium-term viability of the franchise to improve the current team enough to get them into the postseason and effectively save his job in the process. Willie Randolph was shown the door because the Mets underachieved, and I certainly feared that Minaya would do what it took to save his own ass even if it meant sacrificing the farm. That didn't happen, so at least for now I can put those particular fears to bed.

Yes, thankfully Minaya can see the big picture. There were some guys out there that could have marginally upgraded the team this year. Raul Ibanez is probably a better player than Fernando Tatis (once he cools down) and Endy Chavez, and the draft pick compensation when he heads back to Seattle in the offseason would've been nice, but not at the expense of Jon Niese or Fernando Martinez, likely the Mets' top two prospects at this point. If one or the other could've landed a Jason Bay (or some reasonable facsimile thereof), then maybe you starting talking about it. Bay is under contract (now with the Red Sox) for very little money through the end of 2009, so we'd be talking about two months *plus* a whole year on top of that, and whatever the first crack at signing him long-term is worth. But Bay wasn't available to the Mets, and that's fine

I think we all would have liked to see the Mets do something, perhaps something big, if it made sense for the 2008 team as well as the 2009 and 2010 teams. Trading Martinez for Ibanez or Jarrod Washburn probably wouldn't have made sense for any of those Mets teams (yea, not even this one), and even if Minaya takes heat for staying the course, I give him a lot of credit for going into the deadline with a plan: don't rape the farm system unless you get something substantial in return for it. No BSDs, no deal. He didn't deviate from that plan, and I think the Mets are better off for it.

We'll see what pops up on the radar in August, when players can still be dealt once they've cleared waivers. Most teams will try to pass some or all of their own players through waivers at some point this month just so they could be included in trade discussions. Many of those players will be claimed by one team or another, and most of them will be pulled back. Those that go unclaimed are fodder for potential trades, but the vast majority of them will stay with their current teams, many blissfully unaware that they were ever put on waivers in the first place. Hey, maybe some team desperate for a second-baseman will claim Luis Castillo and the Mets will be rid of him and the three years left on his ridiculous contract. Hoo-ray, addition by subtraction!

At all events, the Mets head into the dog days with what they've got now: a flawed team playing amongst other flawed teams. If there's a consolation here it's that neither the Marlins nor the Phillies improved themselves considerably (the Marlins added Arthur Rhodes yesterday; the Phillies added Joe Blanton a couple of weeks ago). For now, all three teams will go with their current horses and hope they can out-mediocre the other two. Doing nothing may be boring, but it beats the hell out of this.

Ryan Church's plans have changed again. He was originally supposed to drive from Miami to Port St. Lucie to begin a rehab assignment with the Class-A Mets, but has been advised by the Mets' medical team to travel with rest of the Mets to Houston so that his situation can be monitored more closely. He just began swinging a bat again on Tuesday, and the Mets are reluctant to accelerate his timetable again. Nothing tangible seems to have triggered the change in plans; everyone just wants to take things more slowly this time around.

As I mentioned in my post earlier, the Mets appear on the verge of doing nothing, which may be the best course of action considering what other teams are asking for their mediocre players, let alone their stars. Buried in the afore-linked article is a note about John Maine, who has a strained rotator cuff and is likely to miss at least his next start in Houston. Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner, who have each had similar injuries in the past, recommended some time off so that Maine's shoulder can rest.

Ken Griffey Jr. has been traded to the White Sox, pending Griffey's 10-5 approval. Griffey is having a so-so year, posting a 103 OPS+, which is actually kinda crummy for a corner outfielder playing his home games in Great American Ballpark. We'll see how much he as left in the tank.

More to come, I'm sure. Use this space to dump and discuss all of the links/rumors you hear throughout the day.

UPDATE [10:55am]: Peter Gammons reports that the Marlins have acquired Arthur Rhodes in exchange for former Met prospect Gaby Hernandez. Hernandez has a 7.24 ERA with Albquerque of the Pacific Coast League. The Mets had traded Hernandez to the Marlins a couple of years ago in the Paul Lo Duca deal. [MetsBlog]

UPDATE [4:35pm]: Manny Ramirez appears to be headed to the Dodgers in a three-team deal that sends Jason Bay to Boston and a bunch of prospects to Pittsburgh. More as this develops. [SI.com]

UPDATE [4:47pm]: I'm hearing Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss coming from Boston and Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris coming from L.A., all going to Pittsburgh. More coverage at Over The Monster.

Not Pelfrey's best outing, but the Mets are back in a tie for first place, so woot! Pelfrey got off to a great start and looked completely dominant through the first three innings. Basically every out recorded was either a groundball or a strikeout, which is exactly what he needs to happen to be successful. Things fell apart in the fourth, as Pelfrey starting leaving the ball up in the zone and the Reds' hitters jumped all over him. His fastball didn't have the sharp downward bite that it had earlier in the game, and good hitters will hit a 94-MPH fastball if it's not moving anywhere. Pelfrey ultimately allowed three homeruns -- to Dunn, Phillips and Encarnacion -- after allowing just four homeruns all season. His 9-to-8 groundball-to-flyball ratio was not especially good (for a groundball pitcher), and the more more balls are hit in the air the greater the likelihood of them leaving the park, especially in Cincinnati.

It wasn't all bad for Pelfrey, though. He was extremely economical with his pitches, throwing just 89 in seven innings of work. Even though he didn't have his A+ stuff he did an adequate job keeping the Mets in the game, slogging through those seven innings and giving the Mets a shot at winning the thing. Thanks to Robinson Cancel's leadoff double in the tenth and the mildly inaccurate arm of Edwin Encarnacion the Mets managed a split of the four-game series. The Mets may have been thinking sweep when the series started, but they should be happy to walk away with two victories. They trailed late in both of the games they eventually won, so a bad break or two and this would've been a tough-to-swallow four-game sweep.

And now for everyone's favorite segment, a little something we like to call "Why the !@#$ is Marlon Anderson still on the roster?". Anderson somehow (divine intervention?) went 1-for-3 at the plate, but whatever value that might've added was wiped out manyfold by his spectacularly ass-headed defensive maneuver in the fourth inning. Ken Griffey hit a flyball down the left-field line to lead off the bottom of the fourth inning which Marlon loafed after as if the ball were clearly headed into the stands. Much to Marlon's surprise, the ball landed some fifteen feet fair and Marlon had to pretend he actually gave a crap as it bounded into the stands for a ground-rule double. Is this the best we can do? Kinda reminds me of that scene in Wayne's World 2.

Wayne: Where's the First Presbyterian Church on Gordon Street?
Gas Station Attendant: *bumbling silence*
Wayne: Gordon Street!
Gas Station Attendant: Oh, yeah. I ... once knew a girl ... who lived on Gordon Street ... but that was a long time ago ... when I was young.
Wayne: Do we have to put up with this? Can't we get a better actor? I know it's a small part, but we can do better than this.

And then Chuck Heston steps in and nails the bit part, bringing Wayne to tears in the process. I realize Marlon Anderson is the 25th man on the roster, but can't we do better than this? Where's our Chuck Heston?

While we're at it, why isn't Ramon Castro playing three days a week, let alone five days a week? Schneider is 33rd in baseball in EqA among catchers with at least 80 plate appearances at .234. That's cherry-picking a bit, as I lowered the bar enough to get Castro and his 93 plate appearances in there. If we bump it up to 150 PA Schneider is at 26th out of 38. That's bad. Not as bad as I thought, actually, but there are still 25 catchers out there that have been better, which is just under one per team. Given 150 PA I'm certain Castro could do better. I'm pretty sure if Castro flipped around and batted lefty he could do better. Robinson Cancel could probably do better. Hell, Raul Casanova is at .253 in 61 plate appearances.

I'm making a plea here: C'mon, Jerry, give your team a fighting chance. Let's make believe for one day that you're *not* a slave to mindless baseball decision-making they way Willie Randolph was. Shock us. Yea, the Mets have won a bunch of games since you took over and they're tied for first place. These are all good things. But when you consistently make choices that put your team at a disadvantage, it just means that the Mets have to do more to overcome the nigh-untenable position you're putting them in. Plainly, they're winning despite you, not because of you. Marlon Anderson hasn't done anything this year to justify significant pinch-hitting appearances, let alone ever starting in a baseball game. Brian Schneider's erstwhile reputation as a plus defender is not a good enough reason to play him in lieu of a clearly superior catcher. Just put the best team you have out there as often as you can and the rest will work itself out.

Big winners: Duaner Sanchez, +25.3% WPA, Carlos Delgado, +21.2% WPA
Big losers: Endy Chavez, -36.4% WPA, Mike Pelfrey, -18.0% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Castro goes blastro, +19.7% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Brandon Phillips homerun, -17.4% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +17.0%
Total batter WPA: +33.0%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by BobbyV_Incognito; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Synopsis

The Reds are in disarray, languishing in last place in the NL Central and having already ousted General Manager Wayne Krivsky in favor of former Cardinals' taskmaster Walt Jocketty. Despite the best efforts of manager Dusty Baker, none of the Reds' pitchers have had season-ending arm injuries and the offense is in the middle of the pack in team walks. Not exactly the Elysium that Baker had envisioned when he took over this past offseason, but he least he no longer has to worry about Barry Bonds clogging up the bases all the time. Or, you know, winning baseball games.

Record

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

Neither their record nor their run differential is impressive, but if we consider equivalence runs scored and allowed (i.e. expected runs based on offensive components like OBP and SLG) and adjust for the strength of the Reds' opponents this year, their computer-ized record is much closer to .500. None of this changes the fact that the Reds have *actually* lost 60% of their games this year, but it might portend a smoother ride in the weeks ahead.

Starting Rotation

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Reds' starters are averaging an absurd 8.48 strikeouts per nine innings. Averaging! For the sake of comparison, Mets starters are averaging 7.01 strikeouts per nine innings, good for fifth in the National League. They have one starter -- Johan Santana at 9.13 -- who is averaging more than Cincinnati's entire rotation. Santana's the only Met starter averaging better than 7.5 whiffs per game, and on a given day whomever the Reds throw out there will strikeout an extra batter on top of that.

Unfortunately, the Reds' starters have the fourth-worst aggregate ERA and have allowed the fourth-most homeruns in the NL.

Aaron Harang is having another nice year, peripheral-wise, even though his record hardly reflects that. His strikeouts are down a bit relative to his recent seasonal numbers, but he is hardly walking anyone and is 1-5 on the season thanks to his offense only scoring 2.76 runs per game.

Rookie Johnny Cueto has struck out exactly a batter per inning and is walking fewer than two every nine innings, leaving him with a remarkable strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranks among the best in the league. Like the rest of the Reds' staff, Cueto has been burned by the long ball, coughing up seven in just 41 innings of work this season. Overall he has been their most well-balanced starter, a fact that belies his pedestrian 5.27 ERA.

Edinson Volquez was the key to the deal that sent Josh Hamilton to the Rangers last offseason, and his statistical profile this season is fascinating. Volquez is leading the National League with a 1.06 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 42.1 innings. He is also fourth in the league in walks (42) and has allowed just one homerun so far. He throws four different pitches: a 93 MPH fastball (57.6%), an 83 MPH slider (7.9%), a 77 MPH curveball (7.7%) and a 77 MPH changeup (26.8%). An expansive repertoire, though the Mets are fortunate to avoid it this series.

Bronson Arroyo has been dreadful this season, but much portion of his struggles can be attributed to horrible luck and a penchant for the longball. Arroyo has a solid strikeout rate and a passable walk rate, though his homerun rate -- 2.23 per nine -- is cartoonishly bad. His .403 BABIP is extraordinarily high, and this is where luck seems to have played a part in his rough go of it. The league average BABIP is around .300, so Arroyo is allowing hits on balls in play about a third more often than the rest of the league. He *is* giving up a lot of line drives, but I would expect both of those to come down over the course of a long season. Of course, his 8.63 ERA isn't the sort of thing that keeps a pitcher in the starting rotation for a whole season. See: Zito, Barry.

Matt Belisle is a 28-year-old righty with good control and a career 92 ERA+. He was handed his spot in the rotation by Josh Fogg and his 9.27 ERA. And that's the story of Matt Belisle.

WPA Top Two
Edinson Volquez, 1.06 WPA
Aaron Harang, 0.70 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Bronson Arroyo, -1.53 WPA
Josh Fogg, -0.90 WPA

Starting Lineup

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Joey Votto was a second-round pick of the Reds back in 2002 and after impressing in limited action last season has been one of the Reds' best hitters this season. His .583 slugging percentage is tenth-best in the National League, and he blasted three of his seven homeruns on Wednesday against the Cubs. He has completely displaced Scott Hatteberg as the Reds' starting first-baseman.

Paul Bako, 36-year-old catcher and a career .237/.309/.326 hitter is hitting .310/.375/.552 this season. He was signed as a free agent after leaving the Orioles following the 2006 season, and will make a million bucks or so this year. The Mets probably could've had him for Lastings Milledge if they had asked really nicely.

Ken Griffey Jr. is stumbling towards 600 career homeruns. He has been mostly miserable at the plate this year, but expect the load to lighten a bit once he hits his milestone. He's not the player he once was, but he was quite good as recently as last season, so unless he pulls a Carlos Delgado there's no reason to believe that he will regress into obsolescence so precipitously.

Former Met Jeff Keppinger has hit pretty well at short for the Reds, though his .254 EqA is nothing to write home about. He had a nice little run last season but still profiles as more of a utility infielder than a starter. That notwithstanding, hHis 6.5 VORP actually places him in the top ten among NL shortstops, so as long as he keeps hitting the Reds could do a whole lot worse.

Adam Dunn is a free agent after this season, but his .219 batting average and .429 slugging are going to be tough sells in left or at first base, the two weakest defensive positions on the diamond and historically the easiest positions at which to find offense. The Mets could very well be buyers at both positions next offseason, and Dunn might be a less expensive (albeit still expensive) alternative to Mark Teixeira.

Despite the low average -- and Jeff Brantley's infamous proclamations of non-clutchiness -- Edwin Encarnacion has turned into one of the better offensive third-basemen in the league. He is drawing walks and hitting for power, which is more than I can say for...

Corey Patterson has a .260 on-base percentage. Try to wrap your head around that.

Brandon Phillips rounds out the starting eight and, despite being allergic to walks, has shown very good power and is one of the best offensive keystoners in the National League. His six homeruns would tie him for the team lead were he on the Mets, and gives him exactly six more homeruns than Luis Castillo will hit in the next four years.

WPA Top Two
Edwin Encarnacion, 0.66 WPA
Joey Votto, 0.45 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Adam Dunn, -0.53 WPA
Brandon Phillips, -0.47 WPA

Bullpen

The Reds have an interesting mix of arms in their 'pen. They have two guys who have struck out more than eleven batters per nine innings -- Jared Burton and Jeremy Affeldt -- and two more who have struck out fewer than five -- the elderly Kent Mercker and David Weathers.

Big-money closer Francisco Cordero has been effective, but he has walked almost seven batters per nine innings, dishing out ten free passes in thirteen innings so far. The Reds have him for four years and $40-something million, so while his 2.08 ERA looks nice now, if he keeps walking the ballpark he could be in big trouble soon. And by "trouble" I mean "bad ERA but still making a poopload of money".

WPA Top Two
Francisco Cordero, 1.05 WPA
Mike Lincoln, 0.37 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
David Weathers, -0.66 WPA
Jared Burton, -0.44 WPA

Bench

One look at Scott Hatteberg's numbers and it's no wonder Joey Votto is starting at first now. Hatteberg has a great eye at the plate, and could be a nice right-handed complement to Carlos Delgado were he available on the cheap.

Jerry Hairston is off to a great start in extremely limited action. Javier Valentin is Jose Valentin's brother. Ryan Freel runs into walls. David Ross has a boring name.

Managerial Tendencies

Not listed here: young arms destroyed, guys who bled internally and runs scored on walks.

Key Injuries