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Jonathon Niese

#49 / Pitcher / New York Mets

6-4

215

L

L

Oct 27, 1986

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
2008 - Jonathon Niese 1-1 3 3 0 0 0 0 14.0 20 11 11 2 8 11 7.07 2.00

Friday Applesauce

Lee Mazzilli won't be back with SNY this season. I nothing-ed him, so this doesn't really strike me one way or the other. SNY has reportedly reached out to Bobby Ojeda as a possible replacement.

At RotoGraphs, David Golebiewski looks at Jon Niese as a possible back of the rotation guy. RotoGraphs is a fantasy-centric sub-page of FanGraphs, so while the content is somewhat geared towards fantasy league play, most of what I've read so far could very easily double as non-fantasy content.

At Beyond the Boxscore, Peter Bendix breaks down the Nick Swisher-to-the-Yankees deal, and concludes -- as everyone else has -- that the Yankees bought low and likely made out like bandits on this one.

Further reaction on the trade can be found at South Side Sox and Pinstripe Alley.

Keith Law has posted his free agent rankings over at ESPN.com. Baseball Digest Daily has posted their rankings, too.

At Bleed Cubbie Blue, Al Yellon reflects on the end of the Kerry Wood era in Chicago.

AZ Snakepit discusses the likely impending departure of Randy Johnson from Arizona. Rob Neyer thinks he could be a bargain (subscription required).

Off-topic economy-in-turmoil post of the day, Peter Schiff will have has now had his revenge on Wall Street.

And finally, even Donald Fagen has to convince his friends that Steely Dan is teh r0xor.

21 comments | 1 recs

2008 Mets Post-Mortem: Pitchers And Pitches

I love stats. I acknowledge their flaws, and I certainly don't believe they tell you everything there is to know about baseball (does anyone actually?), but they really are just a lot of fun to pore over. Thanks to countless intrepid folks who have contributed the ways and means for distributing and disseminating baseball statistics, we have the tools available to learn far more about the game and its players than we ever have before.

One ridiculously useful site for baseball statistics (among other things) is FanGraphs, which is where all of the stats for this article (as well as the WPA graphs in my daily recaps) were extracted from. I wanted to take some time to look at the Mets' pitchers, their pitch velocities and pitch selection from 2008, so let's do just that.

Fastballs

The fastball is almost every pitcher's bread-and-butter. Better than 85% of pitchers threw fastballs at least half the time. Almost 11% threw their heater three-quarters of the time or more. Three guys threw 90% fastballs, though only one -- Tampa Bay's Grant Balfour (91.3%) did so over a significant number of innings. Eddie Kunz threw a higher percentage of fastballs than anyone else in baseball (92.3%), but he only threw a total of 55 pitches.

So folks throw a lot of fastballs. But how fast do they throw 'em? Here are the average fastball speeds for Mets pitchers this season.

Player FBavg
Brian Stokes 95.0
Billy Wagner 94.5
Robert Parnell 94
Aaron Heilman 93.3
Edward Kunz 92.9
Mike Pelfrey 92.7
Jorge Sosa 92.2
John Maine 92.1
Johan Santana 91.2
Oliver Perez 91.2
Brandon Knight 91
Carlos Muniz 90.2
Duaner Sanchez 89.8
Joe Smith 89.4
Jonathon Niese 89.4
Claudio Vargas 89.3
Scott Schoeneweis 88.8
Tony Armas Jr. 88.8
Pedro Martinez 87.7
Nelson Figueroa 86.9
Pedro Feliciano 86.9
Ricardo Rincon 86.4
Matt Wise 84.2

It shouldn't be surprising that relievers dominate the top of this list. They come into a game for an inning at a time -- if that -- and can really air it out because they know they've only got 20 or so pitches before they hit the showers. Whereas starting pitchers have to pace themselves, relievers don't have to show such restraint. Anyone watching Mets games the last two months of the season has seen that Brian Stokes throws gas, and this chart corroborates that observation.

Mike Pelfrey had the fastest average heater among Mets starting pitchers at 92.7 MPH; Pedro Martinez had the slowest at 87.7. If that looks a little low, consider that his average fastball in limited action in 2007 was 86.2 MPH, so 87.7 is a clear improvement.

Of some concern is Johan Santana's average heater speed of 91.2. He was at 91.7 in 2007 with the Twins, and while a half-mile per hour doesn't seem like much now, it's definitely something worth keeping an eye on as he adds years to his ledger and mileage to his arm. His slider speed dropped (84.9 to 83.5) as did his changeup (81.9 to 80.0). The good news is that the disparity in speed between his fastball and changeup actually increased, though the velocity dip across the board is hardly encouraging. Whether that had anything to do with the deterioration in his strikeout rate (9.66 to 7.91 per nine innings) is not yet clear.

For those curious types, the fastest average fastball belonged to Joel Zumaya at 97.5 MPH. The slowest belonged to Tim Wakefield (72.9), though the slowest non-knuckleballer was Chad Bradford at 79.6. The slowest non-knuckler, non-sidearmer was Jamie Moyer for the fiftieth consecutive season at 81.2 MPH. The average big league fastball was thrown at 90.5 MPH.

Pitch Types

Let's move on from pitch speed and on to pitch selection. Here is the breakdown of pitch type for all Mets pitchers this season, sorted by highest fastball frequency.

Player FB SL CB CH CT
Brian Stokes 69.30% 20.80% 9.80%
Billy Wagner 71.10% 28.50% 0.40%
Robert Parnell 75.30% 21.50% 3.20%
Aaron Heilman 64.00% 12.00% 24.00%
Edward Kunz 92.30% 7.70%
Mike Pelfrey 81.20% 12.80% 0.80% 5.10%
Jorge Sosa 50.30% 44.70% 5.10%
John Maine 70.50% 10.10% 1.00% 18.40%
Johan Santana 59.60% 11.70% 28.70%
Oliver Perez 69.20% 26.90% 1.30% 2.60%
Brandon Knight 62.00% 20.90% 13.20% 3.80%
Carlos Muniz 63.80% 31.80% 4.40%
Duaner Sanchez 46.40% 19.00% 3.70% 30.90%
Joe Smith 66.90% 31.10% 2.10%
Jonathon Niese 63.30% 0.40% 24.70% 9.40% 2.20%
Claudio Vargas 62.90% 23.20% 13.80%
Scott Schoeneweis 78.80% 20.80% 0.50%
Tony Armas Jr. 57.40% 36.80% 0.70% 5.10%
Pedro Martinez 56.10% 1.60% 16.00% 19.00% 7.30%
Nelson Figueroa 55.50% 19.70% 18.50% 6.30%
Pedro Feliciano 55.40% 38.40% 0.20% 6.00%
Ricardo Rincon 31.10% 60.70% 8.20%
Matt Wise 42.10% 0.80% 57.10%

(FB=fastball, SL=slider, CB=curveball, CH=changeup, CT=cutter)

One thing that jumps out immediately is that the Mets have a lot of pitchers who all sport basically the same arsenal: Fastball, slider, changeup. Jon Niese, Brian Stokes and Pedro Martinez preferred the curveball to the slider, and Niese and Martinez threw some cutters, but otherwise everyone threw the same three types of pitch. I'm a little surprised that the Mets lacked a single pitcher who throws a split-fingered fastball. Approximately one in eight (11.7%) big league pitchers threw at least 1% splitters in 2008; none threw them for the Mets. The splitter can wreak havoc on a pitcher's elbow, and who's to say that Rick Peterson didn't have a hand in steering the Mets away from that sort of injury risk. We know he was a mechanics freak, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that he advised the Mets to avoid pitchers who featured a splitter.

Quick Hits

  • Jose Contreras led all qualified starters with splitters accounting for 24.6% of his pitches.
  • Taylor Buchholz threw more curveballs than anyone else (34.9%).
  • Tom Glavine threw 43.2% changeups, more than anyone else.
  • The Cubs' Mike Wuertz threw 60.8% sliders, again, more than anyone else.
  • Four pitchers were regular knuckleballers: Wakefield, Charlie Zink (Red Sox), Charlie Haeger (Padres) and R.A. Dickey (Rangers).
  • Two others threw at least one knuckleball: Josh Banks (Padres) and Ryan Franklin (Cardinals), though the latter threw them so infrequently (.4%) that they were probably changeups or curveballs that were simply mis-categorized.
  • The Angels' Darren O'Day threw 2.5% of his 671 pitches for pitch-outs.
  • C.C. Sabathia threw more pitches overall than any other big leaguer: 3,814. NL Cy Young candidate Tim Lincecum was second at 3,682, and Sabathia's fellow free agent-to-be A.J. Burnett threw 3,650. Johan Santana was fifth with 3,598 pitches tossed.

14 comments | 0 recs | Digg!

Does The Fun Ever Start: Cubs 9, Mets 5

The well of ways to say the Mets suck is starting to run dry. Tonight, Jon Niese showed why he may need a little more time in the minors and the Cubs showed why they're the team to beat in the National League.

Jason Marquis drove in more runs -- 5 -- than the entire Mets' team. The Mets' first run was scored by Carlos Delgado on a Marquis wild pitch, so their offense technically only gets credit for four runs batted in on the night. Marquis knocked in four on the fourth-inning grand slam and another on a groundout an inning later.

Duaner Sanchez and Aaron Heilman pitched a scoreless inning apiece to get the ball to the Mets' closer. Just like they drew it up in March. Except that in this reality, the Mets were already out of it when Sanchez and Heilman entered the game and they handed the ball to Luis Ayala and not a real closer. This is also ignoring the fact that for the better part of this season, Sanchez and Heilman have thrown very few scoreless innings, especially in games the Mets weren't already en route to losing.

The Cubs are going with Sean Marshall tomorrow, as the Mets counter with Johan Santana. Suffice it to say, this is kinda sorta an important game.

Big winners: Ryan Church, +9.9% WPA, Daniel Murphy, +7.3% WPA
Big losers: Jon Niese, -44.4% WPA, Luis Castillo, -6.3% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Murphy RBI double in 2nd, +10.9% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Marquis grand slam, -18.4% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -48.2%
Total batter WPA: -1.8%
GWRBI: Jason Marquis


Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by LOUtheMETSfan; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Name # of Posts
LOUtheMETSfan 119
itsmetsforme 60
pingel 59
losangelesmets 30
Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright 29
Omar21 21
elifriedman 18
ZaBlanc 4
anonymous 4
JoshNY 4
kendynamo 2
JohnPeterson 2
Rod Gaspar Fan Club 2
mmxii 2
kingcritical 1
kiki50 1

7 comments | 0 recs | Digg!

Makin' It Look Easy: Mets 5, Braves 0

Eleven days ago, Jon Niese made his big league debut in Milwaukee and promptly blew a five-run lead that had been handed to him. He lasted only three-plus innings and exited with a 15.00 ERA to his credit. This time around things went a lot smoother, as Niese shut out the Braves through eight innings, allowing just eight baserunners (six hits, two walks) and striking out seven. He threw his fastball in the 89 MPH range, touching 92 at times. His curveball came in at a knee-bending 73 MPH, which he threw for a strike 75% of the time. He mixed in just three changeups.

The only regret about Niese's performance was that Jerry Manuel did his best Dusty Baker impression by leaving his young lefty out there for 116 pitches. Niese has now thrown 175 innings this season, well beyond the 134.1 he threw in 2007. The Verducci Effect dictates that young pitchers shouldn't exceed by more than thirty innings their prior season's pitching workload. Niese has thrown 40 more innings, and is just 21 years old. The good news is that, barring any more rainouts, Niese is probably done for the year.

Big winners: Jon Niese, +28.0% WPA, David Wright, +16.1% WPA
Big losers: Luis Castillo, -4.6% WPA, Carlos Delgado, -3.3% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Wright two-run bomb, +16.4% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Sammons leadoff walk in 5th, 3.0% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +28.7%
Total batter WPA: +21.3%
GWRBI: David Wright


Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by pingel; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Name # of Posts
pingel 24
Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright 22
itsmetsforme 22
JoshNY 7
Rod Gaspar Fan Club 2
gogomets 1
anonymous 1

3 comments | 0 recs | Digg!

Pounding Brews: Mets 6, Brewers 5

I'm a little late with the recap, but this was a really great win for the Mets. I guess at this point in the season they're probably all really great wins, so this one was no exception. Jon Niese was nervous/erratic in his big league debut, walking four and allowing five runs on seven hits in three-plus innings. The Mets had built an early 5-1 lead, but Niese was rocked in that third inning and the four-run cushion evaporated.

The next six innings were dominated by the pitchers, as both teams' offenses were held almost completely in check. The Mets broke through in the tenth with a run off Salomon Torres, and despite a shaky bottom of the inning by Luis Ayala, the Mets held on for the 6-5 win. Cole Hamels was busy dominating the Nationals, so the Mets' win keeps them two games in front in the NL East.

2pm start time this afternoon, so it's a shower, a shave, and get yer ass back out there.

Big winners: Carlos Beltran, +20.8% WPA, Luis Ayala, +20.8% WPA
Big losers: Jon Niese, -36.1% WPA, Damion Easley, -13.9% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Reyes sac bunt/error in 10th, +22.7% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Tatis double-play in 6th vs Mota, -14.6% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +38.2%
Total batter WPA: +11.8%
GWRBI: Endy Chavez


Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Name # of Posts
Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright 61
LOUtheMETfan 58
JoshNY 27
Greenpoint Ian 25
itsmetsforme 25
kingcritical 24
tbach81 17
Reg Dunlop 16
IanB in MD 14
DoctorK16 13
mmxii 9
Endys Game 3
Shomov 3
Prince 2
Sokojoe 1
Blackfish 1
jhlmrn 1
BlackOps 1

4 comments | 0 recs

Roster Expansion

The Mets will call up the following minor leaguers when rosters expand today:

Jon Niese, LHP
Robert Parnell, RHP
Ricardo Rincon, LHP
Carlos Muniz, RHP
Al Reyes, RHP
Argenis Reyes, 2B
Ramon Martinez, IF

Niese is expected to start on Tuesday against the Brewers. Parnell, Rincon, Muniz and Al Reyes will go to the bullpen while Argenis Reyes and Martinez will add some bench depth. Marlon Anderson should come off the disabled list and join the expanded roster as well.

9 comments | 0 recs

Tuesday Applesauce

John Maine hit the disabled list last night, replaced immediately on the roster by Luis Castillo. The Mets will have to find someone to start when Maine's rotation spot comes up this week, and it might be Jon Niese, who is currently headlining at Triple-A Norfolk. Niese is 5-1 with a 3.65 ERA in six starts with Norfolk, compiling a 31-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37 innings.

At MetsGeek, Alex Nelson looks at the pitchers the Mets will face in their mini series with the Phillies.

At the Hardball Times, PITCHf/x wizard Josh Kalk analyzes Pedro Martinez to determine how much he has left in the tank this season.

If you're a giant nerd like me, you might be interested in reading about the IP technology and other widgets that are being built into Citi Field.

15 comments | 0 recs

Tuesday Applesauce

Joel Sherman breaks down the Mets' three options to remedy the bullpen situation, as suggested by Jerry Manuel in his post-game news conference yesterday. Those options are:

1. Have Eddie Kunz, who has all of three major league appearances, reprise his Double-A closing role. This is the most likely choice.

2. Keep Brian Stokes in the rotation and call upon either John Maine or Oliver Perez to serve as a multi-inning fireman. For now the Mets don't want to mess with Mike Pelfrey by requesting a rotation-to-pen change.

3. Summon top pitching prospect Jon Niese for the rotation and use Stokes plus either Maine or Perez to serve as the main late-inning relievers.

Sherman goes on to discuss why these are all potentially horrible ideas, particularly the ones that involve moving young starters to the bullpen. The Kunz move makes the most sense to me, at least in that he hasn't yet completely proven himself to be a failure like everyone else in the bullpen.

Billy Wagner expects to return on Monday, which is six whole games away. He is scheduled to make at least one rehab appearance with the Brooklyn Cyclones between now and then.

Jerry Manuel called Ramon Castro a pussy, in so many words.

At MetsGeek, Alex Nelson looks at the pitchers the Mets will face against the Nationals.

I don't want this to get political or anything, but this is funny as hell. And it's Olympic-themed!

3 comments | 0 recs

Thursday Applesauce

In light of Joba Chamberlain's recent trip to the disabled list, Tim Marchman looks at the curse that seems to have befallen young phenoms over the past twenty years.

Luis Castillo is close to returning. This is good news for Castillo and nobody else.

Ryan Church might not return at all this season. He has been taking batting practice and shagging flies, but the Mets have been tight-lipped about his upcoming medical evaluation and he has yet to be cleared for a return to the field.

Aaron Heilman still wants to start, and with the potential for two holes in the 2009 rotation who's to say he won't?

Jon Niese probably won't start for the Mets on Saturday. It'll probably be Brian Stokes or Claudio Vargas.

At The Hardball Times, Geoff Young looks back at the 1983 Lynchburg Mets, a team that went 96-43 and produced the likes of Dwight Gooden, Lenny Dykstra, Calvin Schiraldi, Ed Hearn and others.

5 comments | 0 recs

Woe Is The Status Quo

Another trade deadline has come and gone, and even though lots of big names have new addresses, the Mets haven't changed a bit. Some pundits (like this asshat, for example) will take the Mets and GM Omar Minaya to task for not making an effort to improve a team with playoff aspirations that has so many clear and identifiable weaknesses. The upshot is that the Mets *did* make an effort, they just didn't find anything out there to their liking.

I have criticized Minaya plenty of times in this space, usually for good reason, and I and others have wondered whether he would selfishly risk the medium-term viability of the franchise to improve the current team enough to get them into the postseason and effectively save his job in the process. Willie Randolph was shown the door because the Mets underachieved, and I certainly feared that Minaya would do what it took to save his own ass even if it meant sacrificing the farm. That didn't happen, so at least for now I can put those particular fears to bed.

Yes, thankfully Minaya can see the big picture. There were some guys out there that could have marginally upgraded the team this year. Raul Ibanez is probably a better player than Fernando Tatis (once he cools down) and Endy Chavez, and the draft pick compensation when he heads back to Seattle in the offseason would've been nice, but not at the expense of Jon Niese or Fernando Martinez, likely the Mets' top two prospects at this point. If one or the other could've landed a Jason Bay (or some reasonable facsimile thereof), then maybe you starting talking about it. Bay is under contract (now with the Red Sox) for very little money through the end of 2009, so we'd be talking about two months *plus* a whole year on top of that, and whatever the first crack at signing him long-term is worth. But Bay wasn't available to the Mets, and that's fine

I think we all would have liked to see the Mets do something, perhaps something big, if it made sense for the 2008 team as well as the 2009 and 2010 teams. Trading Martinez for Ibanez or Jarrod Washburn probably wouldn't have made sense for any of those Mets teams (yea, not even this one), and even if Minaya takes heat for staying the course, I give him a lot of credit for going into the deadline with a plan: don't rape the farm system unless you get something substantial in return for it. No BSDs, no deal. He didn't deviate from that plan, and I think the Mets are better off for it.

We'll see what pops up on the radar in August, when players can still be dealt once they've cleared waivers. Most teams will try to pass some or all of their own players through waivers at some point this month just so they could be included in trade discussions. Many of those players will be claimed by one team or another, and most of them will be pulled back. Those that go unclaimed are fodder for potential trades, but the vast majority of them will stay with their current teams, many blissfully unaware that they were ever put on waivers in the first place. Hey, maybe some team desperate for a second-baseman will claim Luis Castillo and the Mets will be rid of him and the three years left on his ridiculous contract. Hoo-ray, addition by subtraction!

At all events, the Mets head into the dog days with what they've got now: a flawed team playing amongst other flawed teams. If there's a consolation here it's that neither the Marlins nor the Phillies improved themselves considerably (the Marlins added Arthur Rhodes yesterday; the Phillies added Joe Blanton a couple of weeks ago). For now, all three teams will go with their current horses and hope they can out-mediocre the other two. Doing nothing may be boring, but it beats the hell out of this.

5 comments | 0 recs


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