Woe Is The Status Quo
Another trade deadline has come and gone, and even though lots of big names have new addresses, the Mets haven't changed a bit. Some pundits (like this asshat, for example) will take the Mets and GM Omar Minaya to task for not making an effort to improve a team with playoff aspirations that has so many clear and identifiable weaknesses. The upshot is that the Mets *did* make an effort, they just didn't find anything out there to their liking.
I have criticized Minaya plenty of times in this space, usually for good reason, and I and others have wondered whether he would selfishly risk the medium-term viability of the franchise to improve the current team enough to get them into the postseason and effectively save his job in the process. Willie Randolph was shown the door because the Mets underachieved, and I certainly feared that Minaya would do what it took to save his own ass even if it meant sacrificing the farm. That didn't happen, so at least for now I can put those particular fears to bed.
Yes, thankfully Minaya can see the big picture. There were some guys out there that could have marginally upgraded the team this year. Raul Ibanez is probably a better player than Fernando Tatis (once he cools down) and Endy Chavez, and the draft pick compensation when he heads back to Seattle in the offseason would've been nice, but not at the expense of Jon Niese or Fernando Martinez, likely the Mets' top two prospects at this point. If one or the other could've landed a Jason Bay (or some reasonable facsimile thereof), then maybe you starting talking about it. Bay is under contract (now with the Red Sox) for very little money through the end of 2009, so we'd be talking about two months *plus* a whole year on top of that, and whatever the first crack at signing him long-term is worth. But Bay wasn't available to the Mets, and that's fine
I think we all would have liked to see the Mets do something, perhaps something big, if it made sense for the 2008 team as well as the 2009 and 2010 teams. Trading Martinez for Ibanez or Jarrod Washburn probably wouldn't have made sense for any of those Mets teams (yea, not even this one), and even if Minaya takes heat for staying the course, I give him a lot of credit for going into the deadline with a plan: don't rape the farm system unless you get something substantial in return for it. No BSDs, no deal. He didn't deviate from that plan, and I think the Mets are better off for it.
We'll see what pops up on the radar in August, when players can still be dealt once they've cleared waivers. Most teams will try to pass some or all of their own players through waivers at some point this month just so they could be included in trade discussions. Many of those players will be claimed by one team or another, and most of them will be pulled back. Those that go unclaimed are fodder for potential trades, but the vast majority of them will stay with their current teams, many blissfully unaware that they were ever put on waivers in the first place. Hey, maybe some team desperate for a second-baseman will claim Luis Castillo and the Mets will be rid of him and the three years left on his ridiculous contract. Hoo-ray, addition by subtraction!
At all events, the Mets head into the dog days with what they've got now: a flawed team playing amongst other flawed teams. If there's a consolation here it's that neither the Marlins nor the Phillies improved themselves considerably (the Marlins added Arthur Rhodes yesterday; the Phillies added Joe Blanton a couple of weeks ago). For now, all three teams will go with their current horses and hope they can out-mediocre the other two. Doing nothing may be boring, but it beats the hell out of this.
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Quit Harang-ing Me
Seven hours or so until the non-waiver trade deadline and all is quiet on the Mets' front. The odd rumor about Raul Ibanez or Arthur Rhodes appears to have faded into the background as names like Ivan Rodriguez, Kyle Farnsworth and Latroy Hawkins change teams. Not that I'd be especially interested in any of those guys, though Pudge would represent an upgrade over Brian Schneider, if not so much over Ramon Castro (Pudge's otherworldly gamer-ness and clutchitude notwithstanding).
A few years ago, a team like the Reds that had no intention of resigning a player like Adam Dunn would just trade him to whomever would give them the best return. Now, thanks largely to Billy Beane, the Reds know that holding onto Dunn and allowing him to walk away at the end of the season means two fat draft picks for them next June. Armed with that information, the Reds can insist on a return that they value at least as much as those picks. If they don't find another team willing to pony up the players or prospects to meet or exceed the perceived value of those picks, well the Reds will just close up shop, book a couple of months worth of Dunn bombs and then wave goodbye in October.
Ibanez is in a similar position, though he isn't nearly as valuable as Dunn in the short- or long-term. Regardless, he will likely be a Type A free agent this offseason and would be worth the same two draft picks as Dunn or Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez or any other Type A. Were the current compensation system burned and discarded, the Mariners couldn't hope to get much more than a Carlos Muniz for Ibanez. As it stands, they're asking for Jon Niese or Robert Parnell, and the Mets are wise not to budge on those demands. If the Mets could get Ibanez for a couple of so-so prospects it'd be a coup, if only for the draft picks, and I guess the slightly-better-than-marginal upgrade that Ibanez represents over Endy Chavez. Chavez is a crummy hitter, but Ibanez is nothing to write home about, and over the course of 60 games the difference is almost negligible. Of course, the Mets proved last year that every game counts (as if we didn't already know that), so I suppose every little bit helps.
One rumor yesterday indicated that the Diamondbacks offered Chad Tracy for Dunn. That sounds like a pretty good deal for the Reds, and the Mets probably can't compete with that. The closest they have to Tracy would be Mike Carp, who has hit well at Binghamton. The caveat there is that he is repeating the league, so his performance is a little less impressive than it might have been last season.
Some small part of me thinks that Omar Minaya will pull off a last-minute deal for a name that we haven't even heard. I keep harping on Aaron Harang for some reason, mostly because he is still reasonably aged, is signed to a decent contract, and may actually be a bit undervalued this year as a result of his 4.76 ERA (95 ERA+). His peripheral stats are all very strong: 108 strikeouts, 34 walks in 123.0 innings. His .331 BABIP is quite a bit higher than his career norm of .314 and well above the usual league norm (~.300). His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.24, which is a half-run lower than his actual ERA. Maybe he's run into a bit of bad luck this season. Again, as I've mentioned each time I've fawned over Harang these past few days, there's no real reason to believe that he's available, considering all of those things I just mentioned. Still, I have a funny feeling that Minaya might pull something out of his ass. He's got seven hours, so he better get some lube.
Then again, the non-waiver trade deadline is exactly that: the last day players can be traded from one team to another without having to pass through waivers. As we've seen in recent years, plenty of transactions take place in August despite the specter of waiver claims hanging over any deal. I don't necessarily think that a Manny Ramirez would clear waivers without being plucked by some team, but Jarrod Washburn or someone like that could. So, even if the Mets don't get anything done by 4pm EDT that doesn't mean they won't try to improve the team in August.
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