No sooner has the 2008 season ended than we're blessed with the first batch of 2009 projections. These come courtesy of ACTA Sports and The Bill James Handbook. The BJH will be availabe on November 1st, months ahead of most of the other baseball annuals, which is great because we get numbers to play with, though we have to accept that the rosters here could change quite a bit by the time next season rolls around.

Here we go.

Let's remember that these are just projections. Some numbers and algorithms went into a computer and these popped out. That's a really simplistic way of looking at what is surely a very complex system, and I don't describe it that way to make light of all of the work that goes into developing and implementing a projection system. Forecasting ballplayers may seem like a frivolous use of time, but there is little doubt that most if not all big league teams use player projections of some form or another. They'd be crazy not to use the many years of baseball data that exists to analyze the likelihood of certain performance results for free agents, players on their own team or potential trade targets on other teams. Projections don't tell us what is guaranteed to happen, but they do tell us what could very likely happen, and that should at least be a part of any reasonable player analysis, whether you're in a big league front office or a humble website sending information through this sophisticated series of tubes we call the internets.

Some thoughts on the Mets, bullet-wise.

• Marlon Anderson should be jettisoned post-haste. He is not better than Val Pascucci. I'm not sure he's better than Morten Anderson. Why was it necessary to sign him for two years? Anyone?
• Carlos Voltron is a god.
• Luis Castillo is a Met.
• Can Brian Schneider never start again? Can Ramon Castro please stay healthy? The 80 points separating their OPS projections is not insignificant.
• Endy Chavez isn't much of a hitter, though he could be one of the most undervalued commodities in baseball.
• Ryan Church's projection isn't terrible, but it's not great, either. For comparison, Lastings Milledge's projection is .281/.347/.439. I don't feel so well.
• Carlos Delgado, not so bad. The computer thinks Carlos will continue his resurgence and put up an OPS similar to his 2008 mark, which is middle of the pack among big league first basemen.
• Damion Easley: Time to retire.
• Mark my words: Nick Evans will not OPS .829. Nice thought, though.
• Fernando Martinez: Not ready for the big time yet.
• Daniel Murphy is the Irish Hammer. Close your eyes. Now picture the Irish Hammer. Now picture him hitting .296/.371/.478 as a 24-year-old. Now picture him doing it at second base. Feel better? How did you read all of that with your eyes closed, eh? Cheater.
• I'm a little disappointed in Jose Reyes's projection. That .798 OPS would be a 35-point dropoff from his 2008 line. I'll take the over on this one.
• Is it wrong to wish that Brian Schneider had been driving that car in DR and not Ambiorix Burgos? Yea. Probably.
• The Mets could do far worse than Fernando Tatis as a righty bat off the bench, Or: Sixteen words I couldn't have fathomed writing a year ago.
• David Wright: Yea, let's trade this bum.

I'll post the pitcher projections tomorrow, and then some free agent/trade target projections on Wednesday.

If you want to know how a team with a $138 million payroll can miss the playoffs, take a gander at the lineup. Not that one. I mean the one in queue outside the trainer's room. Injuries are a part of the game, and some players certainly carry higher risks of injury than others. Older players and players with prior health problems are obvious candidates for a trip or two to the disabled list. Especially high-risk individuals are those injury double-threats: Aging players who have a laundry list of past ailments and afflictions (see: Alou, Moises).

Every team suffers its share of games lost to the disabled list. The Yankees had Jorge Posada, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain all spend time on the shelf; the Red Sox missed David Ortiz, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling for varying lengths of time; the Braves missed Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine at one point or another, so the Mets clearly aren't on an island with respect to busted goods.

I wanted to know exactly how many man-games the Mets lost due to injury this season. So, armed with their transaction ledger, salary data, schedule and my trusty spreadsheet, I had a look-see at how many games individual Mets players missed while on the disabled list. A few caveats:

• I only counted time on the disabled list; missed games while injured but on the active roster were not counted.
• I guesstimated slightly with respect to the day a player went on/came off the disabled list. As a rule, and to be conservative, I counted both days as days on the active roster (i.e. *not* disabled list days).
• For the sake of simplicity, I counted pitcher missed days the same as hitter missed days. I figured it wasn't worth the added complexity of figuring out missed starts, etc., so all team games were treated equally.
• I didn't include Tony Armas's or Trot Nixon's missed days because #$%^ 'em, that's why.

Having said that, here are the results:

Nine-hundred and sixteen missed games at an average cost-per-game of $26,229.35 for a grand total of $25,961,163.30 of lost wages due to injury. That's almost $26 million, which will pay for C.C. Sabathia's 2009 salary, among other things. For poops and pickles, if the Mets had that money back their 2008 payroll would have been more like $112 million, not $138 million. To be honest, I have no idea how much the Mets team attrition compares to other clubs, but 916 games is a ton of missed time.

Keep in mind that I only included players whom the Mets could have reasonably expected to be on their 25-man roster for the whole season. Here's the positional breakdown:

• Starting pitching: 250 games, $11,032,228.11
• Relief pitching: 207 games, $4,322,530.86
• Infield: 65 games, $2,507,716.05
• Outfield: 195 games, $6,435,185.19
• Bench: 199 games, $972,145.06

Even with all of these injuries the Mets still had a great chance to make the playoffs this season. I'd be making excuses if I blamed their having fallen short on bad health, though it'd be equally naive to suggest that their physical breakdowns didn't play any role in their ultimate demise. To have four players from your would-be active roster miss at least 125 games apiece and not have your record suffer to some degree is unrealistic. Plenty of blame still falls on Omar Minaya for not having reasonable contingency plans for some of these guys, most notably Alou and Hernandez, who were safe bets to miss significant time in any given year. Still, a little more luck in the health department and we might not be grinding our teeth bitterly as we watch other teams take their hacks at baseball history.

The Mets will call up the following minor leaguers when rosters expand today:

Jon Niese, LHP
Robert Parnell, RHP
Ricardo Rincon, LHP
Carlos Muniz, RHP
Al Reyes, RHP
Argenis Reyes, 2B
Ramon Martinez, IF

Niese is expected to start on Tuesday against the Brewers. Parnell, Rincon, Muniz and Al Reyes will go to the bullpen while Argenis Reyes and Martinez will add some bench depth. Marlon Anderson should come off the disabled list and join the expanded roster as well.

In lieu of my customary recap I decided to switch things up last night, so I did a bunch of drinking instead. If you missed the game you can read the postmortem at Newsday, The Journal News, The Bergen Record, etc.

Dan Murphy and Nick Evans will platoon in left field for the time being, with Fernando Tatis shifting over to right, at least until Ryan Church returns. The plan once Church returns is unclear, but I'm excited to see what the kids can do. Enough Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson (who is on the disabled list now); find out if either of Murphy or Evans is ready to help this team this year or next. A hundred at-bats doesn't tell you much, but I'd still rather see either of them than Chavez or Anderson at this point.

Val Pascucci hit three more homeruns yesterday, and now has 24 for the year to go along with his .980 OPS.

Mike Lupica thinks that Carlos Beltran is the biggest offensive disappointment in New York baseball. I didn't actually read the article because I already took my morning dump, but if any of you brave souls bother to can you please enlighten me as to how Beltran's 117 OPS+ is more disappointing than Derek Jeter's 98? Those are 2008 figures, mind you. Beltran has been solid but unspectacular at the plate this season, and has still managed to post an OPS 17% better than the league at the third-most important defensive position (after catcher and shortstop).

Mike Pelfrey didn't have it tonight, getting battered around for five runs on eight hits including five for extra bases (three doubles, two triples). Really, he had one terrible inning.

Carlos Muniz and Duaner Sanchez relieved Pelfrey and tossed three scoreless innings (!), allowing Damion Easley to bring the Mets to within a run. Joe Smith made sure that didn't last long, as he coughed up a two-run Ugg-bomb that effectively put the game out of reach in the eighth.

Tonight's sign that the apocalypse is upon us: Marlon Anderson, 3-for-4. Anyone else feel dirty?

Big winners: Damion Easley, +17.8% WPA, Marlon Anderson, +5.9% WPA
Big losers: Mike Pelfrey, -29.5% WPA, David Wright, -15.0% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Easley three-run bomb, +17.8% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Ross two-run triple, -22.4% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -32.4%
Total batter WPA: -17.6%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by BobbyV_Incognito; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

The trade deadline is fast approaching and the list of available players is growing shorter. At the same time, the Mets continue to pitch and hit effectively and areas of greatest need are not as considerable as they were as little as a month ago. Then again, winning cures all ills and great play can often mask shortcomings.

Area of need: corner outfield

For instance, Fernando Tatis is hitting .318/.370/.520. Fernando. Tatis. Career .263/.345/.443 hitter. Much worse than that since 2000. He's hitting lefties and righties equally well, and he hasn't completely embarrassed himself in the field. We're only talking 160-some-odd plate appearances, though, and small sample size red flags abound. He's been a great story and a huge lift for the Mets with Moises Alou out for the season and Ryan Church still out as he recovers from the effects of his second concussion this season. Church may be back soon, but neither that nor his long-term status are guaranteed.

Even if Tatis were somehow able to sustain anything resembling his current level of production, Endy Chavez continues to be an offensive sinkhole in right field. Sure, the defense is great and the .272 batting average is decent, but the .316 on-base percentage is 13th among 17 National League right-fielders with at least 250 plate appearances. His .329 slugging percentage is 16th of 17, besting only Washington's Austin Kearns. Endy's .644 OPS is likewise 16th of 17. I don't know which is more astonishing: that Endy is so bad at hitting or that he's managed to accrue 250 plate appearances while being so bad at hitting. That's a poll for another day, I guess. Regardless, Endy's defense is probably good enough to justify carrying his anemic bat as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but as a starting corner outfielder he is pitifully feckless.

Area of need: relief pitching

Billy Wagner's propensity for eating it hard in big games notwithstanding, he's the Mets' best relief pitcher and still one of the best closers in the National League. Aaron Heilman has been a lot better of late and is probably the Mets' number two, which is far preferable to just plain number two, which was Heilman's nom de fan for the first two months of the season.

Duaner Sanchez is a mystery right now. He was effective if unspectacular for the season's first three months, but has been mostly horrible for a couple of weeks now and is suffering a loss in velocity and deterioration of confidence. After missing a year and a half there's no telling what shape his shoulder is in or whether his arm can hold up for an entire season. Maybe it's just a matter of fatigue and he needs a little time off. At all events, he's a definite question mark moving forward.

Pedro Feliciano is still murder on lefties, but unlike the past two seasons, this year he has been downright awful against righties, who have rocked him to the tune of .342/.419/.553. There's nothing wrong with having a lefty specialist in the bullpen, but the Mets already have one guy -- Scott Schoeneweis -- who can't get righties out, and despite his dramatic platoon splits this season I'm pretty sure Jerry Manuel still thinks that Feliciano is a quality guy to throw out there against all comers. Then again, two full years of competence is more meaningful than one half-year of ineptitude, but you still have to assign greater weight to the recent performance, and that's not good news for Feliciano or the Mets.

Joe Smith is the opposite of Feliciano: he dominates righties and has a tough time with the southpaws. Righties have hit just .190/.271/.302 while lefties have gone .293/.408/.415. If only he and Feliciano could play the field I might be inclined to pull Tatis in the late innings and alternate lefty-righty with Smith and Feliciano for an inning or two. It all comes down to how Manuel decides to use them, so let's hope that his inquisitive mind and nerd glasses mean he knows a thing or two about platoon splits.

Area of need: first base?

A month ago this would have been an obvious need, but with Carlos Delgado swinging a mighty big stick I'm not so sure any more. Given how precipitously he declined last year and how quickly he has resurged, you really have to wonder if those nagging injuries were bothering him more than he let on. The elbow in particular caused him a lot of trouble the last year and a half, and if he is finally out from under those problems then maybe it shouldn't be so surprising that he's back to mashing the ball. He's not going to OPS 1.200 the rest of the way as he has during July, but he has finally pushed his OPS over the league average for a first baseman and there's reason for optimism that he might keep it there.

Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn will cost an arm and a leg to acquire for the remainder of this season and both will be free agents at season's end. They'll both be on the Mets's radar come November, but I think they'll stand pat this summer and hope that Delgado's resurrection is for real.

Area of need: bench

Marlon Anderson is terrible, and needs to be jettisoned as quickly as possible. I like to think that if the Mets could find anyone else worth plugging into that prestigious 25th spot on the roster that they would have already done so, but right now the dried up husks of Lenny Harris and Matt Franco both look like better options. The rest of the bench is serviceable, with Damion Easley and Argenis Reyes both providing decent production. Nick Evans and Robinson Cancel are nothing special, but the Mets seem inclined to give Evans a few looks at the big league level, and as far as Cancel is concerned, well, they would otherwise just be throwing away the rest of the post-game buffet.

Area of need: catcher?

This one's a trick, because the Mets don't actually need to acquire a new catcher; they just need to play their best catcher more often. That means more time on the pine for Brian Schneider and more cracks at the starting lineup for Ramon Castro. Here is my entire argument:

Ramon Castro: .290/.365/.538
Brian Schneider: .247/.337/.300

So, as long as Jerry Manuel continues to read this blog I think the Mets will be fine at catcher. Or, at least, have the RSS feed in his Google Reader. Either or.

In summation and in conclusion: improve the corner outfield and bench if doing so would come at minimal cost to the farm system. A solid reliever would be nice, but given the going rate of solid relievers I would be more inclined to go with what we've got or, possibly, promote from within. Perhaps Eddie Camacho, Eude Brito or Eddie Kunz -- all currently with Binghamton -- could be given a shot. They can't be much worse than Carlos Muniz has been. Stay the course at first base and catcher, giving more playing time to Castro at the latter.

If you want to know what a difference a day makes, go read the tail ends of the comments from the last two game threads. Baseball is an emotional game and Mets fans are likewise emotional, and vocal, and dramatic. A day ago the season was terminal and inoperable, the bullpen a wreck and the division slipping away. Now, after a tidy 6-3 win over those same Phillies, the Mets are again tied for first place and things are looking, if not up, at least not down. Everyone's back where they were before Duaner Sanchez showed us all why the Mets really *do* need Billy Wagner, despite his seeming propensity to give it up in big spots.

Carlos Delgado earned a move up to the cleanup spot and responded by going 1-for-2 with a couple of walks. With his smoking hot July tear Delgado has worked his batting line up to .262/.347/.477, unspectacular for a first baseman but so much better than what he had done in the prior twelve months that it's fun to believe he's actually returned to form. One month does not a rebound make, but maybe injuries were bothering him more than he let on. It's only been 67 at-bats, but in case you haven't checked his monthly splits in a while, Delgado is hitting .403/.481/.731 in July after OPS-ing .632, .772 and .784 for the first three months of the season.

Big winners: Jose Reyes, +21.2% WPA, Damion Easley, +11.4% WPA
Big losers: Marlon Anderson, -9.0% WPA, John Maine, -5.6% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Reyes woot!, +27.4% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Rollins RBI double, -13.6% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +16.0%
Total batter WPA: +34.0%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by BobbyV_Incognito; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Not Pelfrey's best outing, but the Mets are back in a tie for first place, so woot! Pelfrey got off to a great start and looked completely dominant through the first three innings. Basically every out recorded was either a groundball or a strikeout, which is exactly what he needs to happen to be successful. Things fell apart in the fourth, as Pelfrey starting leaving the ball up in the zone and the Reds' hitters jumped all over him. His fastball didn't have the sharp downward bite that it had earlier in the game, and good hitters will hit a 94-MPH fastball if it's not moving anywhere. Pelfrey ultimately allowed three homeruns -- to Dunn, Phillips and Encarnacion -- after allowing just four homeruns all season. His 9-to-8 groundball-to-flyball ratio was not especially good (for a groundball pitcher), and the more more balls are hit in the air the greater the likelihood of them leaving the park, especially in Cincinnati.

It wasn't all bad for Pelfrey, though. He was extremely economical with his pitches, throwing just 89 in seven innings of work. Even though he didn't have his A+ stuff he did an adequate job keeping the Mets in the game, slogging through those seven innings and giving the Mets a shot at winning the thing. Thanks to Robinson Cancel's leadoff double in the tenth and the mildly inaccurate arm of Edwin Encarnacion the Mets managed a split of the four-game series. The Mets may have been thinking sweep when the series started, but they should be happy to walk away with two victories. They trailed late in both of the games they eventually won, so a bad break or two and this would've been a tough-to-swallow four-game sweep.

And now for everyone's favorite segment, a little something we like to call "Why the !@#$ is Marlon Anderson still on the roster?". Anderson somehow (divine intervention?) went 1-for-3 at the plate, but whatever value that might've added was wiped out manyfold by his spectacularly ass-headed defensive maneuver in the fourth inning. Ken Griffey hit a flyball down the left-field line to lead off the bottom of the fourth inning which Marlon loafed after as if the ball were clearly headed into the stands. Much to Marlon's surprise, the ball landed some fifteen feet fair and Marlon had to pretend he actually gave a crap as it bounded into the stands for a ground-rule double. Is this the best we can do? Kinda reminds me of that scene in Wayne's World 2.

Wayne: Where's the First Presbyterian Church on Gordon Street?
Gas Station Attendant: *bumbling silence*
Wayne: Gordon Street!
Gas Station Attendant: Oh, yeah. I ... once knew a girl ... who lived on Gordon Street ... but that was a long time ago ... when I was young.
Wayne: Do we have to put up with this? Can't we get a better actor? I know it's a small part, but we can do better than this.

And then Chuck Heston steps in and nails the bit part, bringing Wayne to tears in the process. I realize Marlon Anderson is the 25th man on the roster, but can't we do better than this? Where's our Chuck Heston?

While we're at it, why isn't Ramon Castro playing three days a week, let alone five days a week? Schneider is 33rd in baseball in EqA among catchers with at least 80 plate appearances at .234. That's cherry-picking a bit, as I lowered the bar enough to get Castro and his 93 plate appearances in there. If we bump it up to 150 PA Schneider is at 26th out of 38. That's bad. Not as bad as I thought, actually, but there are still 25 catchers out there that have been better, which is just under one per team. Given 150 PA I'm certain Castro could do better. I'm pretty sure if Castro flipped around and batted lefty he could do better. Robinson Cancel could probably do better. Hell, Raul Casanova is at .253 in 61 plate appearances.

I'm making a plea here: C'mon, Jerry, give your team a fighting chance. Let's make believe for one day that you're *not* a slave to mindless baseball decision-making they way Willie Randolph was. Shock us. Yea, the Mets have won a bunch of games since you took over and they're tied for first place. These are all good things. But when you consistently make choices that put your team at a disadvantage, it just means that the Mets have to do more to overcome the nigh-untenable position you're putting them in. Plainly, they're winning despite you, not because of you. Marlon Anderson hasn't done anything this year to justify significant pinch-hitting appearances, let alone ever starting in a baseball game. Brian Schneider's erstwhile reputation as a plus defender is not a good enough reason to play him in lieu of a clearly superior catcher. Just put the best team you have out there as often as you can and the rest will work itself out.

Big winners: Duaner Sanchez, +25.3% WPA, Carlos Delgado, +21.2% WPA
Big losers: Endy Chavez, -36.4% WPA, Mike Pelfrey, -18.0% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Castro goes blastro, +19.7% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Brandon Phillips homerun, -17.4% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +17.0%
Total batter WPA: +33.0%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by BobbyV_Incognito; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

More of the same here as the Mets follow up an excruciating loss with a laugher, roughing up Mitchell Boggs for eleven runs and ten hits in six innings. Boggs was in take-one-for-the-team mode, as the Mets scored nine of their runs in the first three innings. Carlos Beltran had the night off, and it was good to see this team score some runs when one of their big bats is out of the lineup. I guess it helps when the planets align and Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley get two hits apiece. One of them, fine, I'll buy it. Two of them, sure, crazy things happen all the time. But all three? The odds of that happening are vanishingly small, and unless you're that girl that got struck by lightning AND won the lottery, the likelihood of it happening again are equally slim. Having Ryan Church's bat ine the lineup and what I can only guess is a wardrobe entirely furnished by Abercrombie and Fitch back in the locker room adds quite a bit of depth to the offense (Church's intramural beer pong team is thrilled to have him back as well, I'm told). No longer can teams pitch around the first four batters and bank on fifteen straight outs to follow.

What's more, Mike Pelfrey is very rapidly transforming into a stud. The pitch he struck out Pujols on in the first inning was downright filthy, and he got plenty of groundballs and popups en route to allowing just one run over seven innings. His fastball is definitely a plus pitch right now, and with each start his secondary pitches seem to be getting a little bit better. They're still nothing special; maybe not even an average pitch among them, but his heater is so good right now that even marginal progress with his off-speed pitches will lead to dramatic results when he's out there. He's not there yet, but I could see him following along the Brandon Webb career path. I'm not going to delude myself into thinking he'll be as good as Webb, but there are enough similarities to project Pelfrey as a possible poor man's version of Webb in a couple of years. Pelfrey just turned 24 and is in his third partial season -- first full season -- with the Mets. He's had plenty of ups and downs since turning pro, especially at the big league level, but he's making real strides towards becoming a pitcher, not the proverbial thrower.

Big winners: Damion Easley, +11.4% WPA, Mike Pelfrey, +11.3% WPA
Big losers: Ramon Castro, -1.9% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Damion Easley RBI single in first, +8.1% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Castro lineout in first, -2.7% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +11.4%
Total batter WPA: +38.6%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by JE; his effort in last night's game thread embiggens us all.

Everybody else is doing it, so why can't we? Forty-one-ish games into the season and the Mets have had an up-and-down three months to say the least. Things could be a whole lot worse, though, even if the Mets have fallen well short of expectations to this point. That's what these mid-season report cards often come down to: how did Player X perform relative to what could have been reasonably expected of him? So with that as our lead-in, here are my first-half grades.

Rotation - C: The starting rotation appeared to be a strength heading into the season, and I guess relative to the offense it *has* been pretty good, but again we're talking about expectations and in that regard the Mets' starters have disappointed as a whole. Mets starters are eighth in the league in ERA and ninth in WHIP, which is fine for a middling team with a small-town payroll, but these are the Ny Effing Mets with more money committed to player salaries than any other team in the National League, so middle of the pack isn't going to cut it. Pedro has been either awful or injured and, while I think he'll pull out of it alright, he's giving the Mets nothing right now. Santana has been fine; unspectacular, but still very good. Oliver Perez, save his most recent outstanding start against the Yankees, has been equal parts terrible and inconsistent. Maine has been pretty good, though not last night.

Rock stars: Mike Pelfrey, I guess

Boxcar hobos: Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez

Bullpen - B-: This grade could be a bit higher because most of the bullpen principals have been quite good. Billy Wagner, with the exception of that execrable stretch of three games at the beginning of June, has been awesome. Scott Schoeneweis's low-three ERA seems unsustainable give his 12-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he's been solid despite any smoke and/or mirrors he keeps stashed in his locker. Joe Smith has been inconsistent, but his numbers are pretty good across the board. Feliciano continues to walk a lot of guys, but his ERA and strikeout rates are very strong again. Duaner Sanchez was said to be the key to this relief corps heading into the season, and he's been decent. Like Smith, his numbers are mostly solid, though his ERA is nigh four and his strikeout rate is unspectacular. Aaron Heilman was horrendous in April and May but ungodly in June, so there may be hope for him yet.

Rock stars: Billy Wagner, Pedro Feliciano

Boxcar hobos: Matt Wise, Jorge Sosa

Offense - C-: I'm a little torn on this grade because I'm not sure how much blame to assign to the players and how much should be heaped on the front office and ownership. The offense has not been very good, but a lot of the guys who haven't been very good were known before they even took a swing to not be very good. Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, Fernando Tatis: these are not good players. I hate them because they suck, but I don't blame them so much because even their respective mothers could have told us they were terrible. I'll go back to my favorite analogy to these bums: I don't blame a spoon for being unable to to cut my steak; it's a tool ill fit for the job, much like Tatis playing baseball. After a slow start, Jose Reyes has been terrific, and is at or around the top ten players in baseball in VORP. His power is much improved over last season and his walk rate has crept back up to the rate he established last season. Wright has been a little underwhelming, but I still feel like he could break out at any moment. Beltran has been his typical emotionally-subdued but otherwise extremely productive self. Delgado drove in nine runs the other day, so he's good for zippo over the next six weeks now. Church has been mostly terrific and partially injured, but his on-field performance has exceeded any expectations I had of him.

Rock stars: Ryan Church, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran (yes, Carlos Beltran)

Boxcar hobos: Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Brian Schneider

Manager(s) - C: I don't really know how to evaluate managers, and I don't know if I ever will. Willie Randolph seemed like a nice enough guy, though he had awkward bullpen usage and often relied too heavily on established, ineffective veterans in all facets of play (bullpen, offense, defense). I didn't always care for his lineup construction, and rumors trickled in after his ouster that he had lost his clubhouse. All of this paints a pretty crummy picture of him as a manager, but even considering all of that I still don't know that he cost the Mets any more than a few games over the course of a season relative to a "great" manager, whomever that might be. Jerry Manual took over and has shown a bit more fire and a little less reliance on "his guys".

Front office - D-: Omar Minaya brought in Johan Santana for a truckload of money and a mixed bag of prospects, and despite his best efforts the Lastings Milledge deal has sorta worked out for the Mets so far (though perhaps not in the long run). However, his biggest failing (stop me if you've heard this one before) was his inability to provide reasonable contingency plans for injuries to Moises Alou and continued ineptitude from Carlos Delgado. That the first line of support has been the likes of Tatis, Anderson and Chavez is as big an indictment of Minaya's shortcomings as a GM as anything you could hold against Randolph as a manager. There are some important decisions to be made in the next three weeks about the viability of this team as a legitimate playoff contender, but despite assurances from ownership that his job is safe, Minaya has to feel that this could be a watershed season in his career as Mets GM. The NL East seems weak enough that a small bump could put the Mets over the top, but will Minaya trade away what few chips remain in the farm system for a shot at the postseason? Unfortunately, his short-term outlook and the Mets' long-term success may be diametrically opposed come July 31.

Overall - C-: The Mets are still just three (or so) games out in the NL East, but clearly they have failed to meet expectations in almost every area of their play. There's still a half-season to turn things around, but it'll get late early (Yogi!) if they keep losing every other game.

Agree or disagree, leave your grades in the comments. Or, go one step further and make some prognostications about the next 41 81 (or 40 80, now) games.