Sunday Applesauce
In lieu of my customary recap I decided to switch things up last night, so I did a bunch of drinking instead. If you missed the game you can read the postmortem at Newsday, The Journal News, The Bergen Record, etc.
Dan Murphy and Nick Evans will platoon in left field for the time being, with Fernando Tatis shifting over to right, at least until Ryan Church returns. The plan once Church returns is unclear, but I'm excited to see what the kids can do. Enough Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson (who is on the disabled list now); find out if either of Murphy or Evans is ready to help this team this year or next. A hundred at-bats doesn't tell you much, but I'd still rather see either of them than Chavez or Anderson at this point.
Val Pascucci hit three more homeruns yesterday, and now has 24 for the year to go along with his .980 OPS.
Mike Lupica thinks that Carlos Beltran is the biggest offensive disappointment in New York baseball. I didn't actually read the article because I already took my morning dump, but if any of you brave souls bother to can you please enlighten me as to how Beltran's 117 OPS+ is more disappointing than Derek Jeter's 98? Those are 2008 figures, mind you. Beltran has been solid but unspectacular at the plate this season, and has still managed to post an OPS 17% better than the league at the third-most important defensive position (after catcher and shortstop).
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Need-Based Analysis As Trade Deadline Looms
The trade deadline is fast approaching and the list of available players is growing shorter. At the same time, the Mets continue to pitch and hit effectively and areas of greatest need are not as considerable as they were as little as a month ago. Then again, winning cures all ills and great play can often mask shortcomings.
Area of need: corner outfield
For instance, Fernando Tatis is hitting .318/.370/.520. Fernando. Tatis. Career .263/.345/.443 hitter. Much worse than that since 2000. He's hitting lefties and righties equally well, and he hasn't completely embarrassed himself in the field. We're only talking 160-some-odd plate appearances, though, and small sample size red flags abound. He's been a great story and a huge lift for the Mets with Moises Alou out for the season and Ryan Church still out as he recovers from the effects of his second concussion this season. Church may be back soon, but neither that nor his long-term status are guaranteed.
Even if Tatis were somehow able to sustain anything resembling his current level of production, Endy Chavez continues to be an offensive sinkhole in right field. Sure, the defense is great and the .272 batting average is decent, but the .316 on-base percentage is 13th among 17 National League right-fielders with at least 250 plate appearances. His .329 slugging percentage is 16th of 17, besting only Washington's Austin Kearns. Endy's .644 OPS is likewise 16th of 17. I don't know which is more astonishing: that Endy is so bad at hitting or that he's managed to accrue 250 plate appearances while being so bad at hitting. That's a poll for another day, I guess. Regardless, Endy's defense is probably good enough to justify carrying his anemic bat as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but as a starting corner outfielder he is pitifully feckless.
Area of need: relief pitching
Billy Wagner's propensity for eating it hard in big games notwithstanding, he's the Mets' best relief pitcher and still one of the best closers in the National League. Aaron Heilman has been a lot better of late and is probably the Mets' number two, which is far preferable to just plain number two, which was Heilman's nom de fan for the first two months of the season.
Duaner Sanchez is a mystery right now. He was effective if unspectacular for the season's first three months, but has been mostly horrible for a couple of weeks now and is suffering a loss in velocity and deterioration of confidence. After missing a year and a half there's no telling what shape his shoulder is in or whether his arm can hold up for an entire season. Maybe it's just a matter of fatigue and he needs a little time off. At all events, he's a definite question mark moving forward.
Pedro Feliciano is still murder on lefties, but unlike the past two seasons, this year he has been downright awful against righties, who have rocked him to the tune of .342/.419/.553. There's nothing wrong with having a lefty specialist in the bullpen, but the Mets already have one guy -- Scott Schoeneweis -- who can't get righties out, and despite his dramatic platoon splits this season I'm pretty sure Jerry Manuel still thinks that Feliciano is a quality guy to throw out there against all comers. Then again, two full years of competence is more meaningful than one half-year of ineptitude, but you still have to assign greater weight to the recent performance, and that's not good news for Feliciano or the Mets.
Joe Smith is the opposite of Feliciano: he dominates righties and has a tough time with the southpaws. Righties have hit just .190/.271/.302 while lefties have gone .293/.408/.415. If only he and Feliciano could play the field I might be inclined to pull Tatis in the late innings and alternate lefty-righty with Smith and Feliciano for an inning or two. It all comes down to how Manuel decides to use them, so let's hope that his inquisitive mind and nerd glasses mean he knows a thing or two about platoon splits.
Area of need: first base?
A month ago this would have been an obvious need, but with Carlos Delgado swinging a mighty big stick I'm not so sure any more. Given how precipitously he declined last year and how quickly he has resurged, you really have to wonder if those nagging injuries were bothering him more than he let on. The elbow in particular caused him a lot of trouble the last year and a half, and if he is finally out from under those problems then maybe it shouldn't be so surprising that he's back to mashing the ball. He's not going to OPS 1.200 the rest of the way as he has during July, but he has finally pushed his OPS over the league average for a first baseman and there's reason for optimism that he might keep it there.
Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn will cost an arm and a leg to acquire for the remainder of this season and both will be free agents at season's end. They'll both be on the Mets's radar come November, but I think they'll stand pat this summer and hope that Delgado's resurrection is for real.
Area of need: bench
Marlon Anderson is terrible, and needs to be jettisoned as quickly as possible. I like to think that if the Mets could find anyone else worth plugging into that prestigious 25th spot on the roster that they would have already done so, but right now the dried up husks of Lenny Harris and Matt Franco both look like better options. The rest of the bench is serviceable, with Damion Easley and Argenis Reyes both providing decent production. Nick Evans and Robinson Cancel are nothing special, but the Mets seem inclined to give Evans a few looks at the big league level, and as far as Cancel is concerned, well, they would otherwise just be throwing away the rest of the post-game buffet.
Area of need: catcher?
This one's a trick, because the Mets don't actually need to acquire a new catcher; they just need to play their best catcher more often. That means more time on the pine for Brian Schneider and more cracks at the starting lineup for Ramon Castro. Here is my entire argument:
Ramon Castro: .290/.365/.538
Brian Schneider: .247/.337/.300
So, as long as Jerry Manuel continues to read this blog I think the Mets will be fine at catcher. Or, at least, have the RSS feed in his Google Reader. Either or.
In summation and in conclusion: improve the corner outfield and bench if doing so would come at minimal cost to the farm system. A solid reliever would be nice, but given the going rate of solid relievers I would be more inclined to go with what we've got or, possibly, promote from within. Perhaps Eddie Camacho, Eude Brito or Eddie Kunz -- all currently with Binghamton -- could be given a shot. They can't be much worse than Carlos Muniz has been. Stay the course at first base and catcher, giving more playing time to Castro at the latter.
4 comments | 0 recs
Stupid Braves: Mets 9, Cardinals 1
Johan Santana finally gets the complete game he should have had a week ago, and drops his ERA to 2.93, good for sixth in the NL. He thoroughly dominated the Cardinals, a solo homerun by Albert Pujols the only real blemish. I'm told that Duaner Sanchez wasn't even allowed out of the clubhouse until the game was over just to be on the safe side.
The same Mets' offense that was stymied by Kyle Lohse a few weeks ago battered him relentlessly through five-plus innings, cranking out seven runs on eleven hits including three homeruns. The Mets tallied 17 hits overall including seven for extra-bases. Santana went 2-for-2 with a run batted in, everyone in the lineup had at least one hit and either scored or drove in a run.
Carlos Beltran made an in-friggin-credible catch at the wall, but let's see him come up big when it's *not* a blowout, eh? Ramon Castro continues to support my theory that Brian Schneider has incriminating photos of Jerry Manuel or Omar Minaya or perhaps both at the same time. What does this guy have to do to get into more than one game a week?
Big winners: Johan Santana, +33.0% WPA, Endy Chavez, +9.4 % WPA
Big losers: Carlos Delgado, -8.8% WPA, Damion Easley, -4.4% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Beltran RBI-single in 3rd, +9.1% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Delgado double-play in 1st, -8.5% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +33.0%
Total batter WPA: +17.0%
Game Thread Roll Call
Nice job by BobbyV_Incognito; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.
| Name | # of Posts |
|---|---|
| BobbyV_Incognito | 55 |
| Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright | 45 |
| LOUtheMETfan | 44 |
| DoctorK16 | 26 |
| Endys Game | 11 |
| Prince | 7 |
| pingel | 5 |
| Simons | 5 |
| itsmetsforme | 4 |
| Rod Gaspar Fan Club | 3 |
| anonymous | 3 |
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Saturday Applesauce
I mentioned it yesterday, but Brandon Knight is making his first big league start tonight against the Cardinals in place of Pedro Martinez, who is on the bereavement list after the death of his father. Knight was out of baseball last season before his wife convinced him to take a spot pitching in the Independent League. The Mets signed him to a minor league deal in May and he has been dominant in five starts (eleven appearances overall), striking out 49 and walking just ten in 39.1 innings, notching a 1.60 ERA. Now, Triple-A isn't quite Quadruple-A (read: Tampa Bay pre-2008), which isn't quite the major leagues, but it's a good story and we all love good stories, right?
Ryan Church has begun light conditioning, but could still be a week or two away from returning. Jerry Manuel says Church will need upwards of seven rehab starts once he's ready to go, though Church is taking "the under" on that one. With the trade market thin and pricey, a Church return would be a huge addition to the Mets' offense. Names like Raul Ibanez and Casey Blake are out there and they'd definitely be upgrades over Chavez and Tatis, but would like cost at least a B-level prospect and the Mets don't have too many of those lying around. Larry Brooks at The Post has more on this.
Mark Hale on Mike Pelfrey's awesomeness.
Newsday's Jim Baumbach caught up with Dwight Gooden after an autograph show yesterday and god an update on where Doc is at right now. Something you may not have known: Gooden has six kids between the ages of 3 and 21.
Steve Popper at The Record takes a look at the Mets' Double-A team in Binghamton, where the Mets have started to stockpile a decent set of players. An interesting tidbit in the middle of the article: "GM Omar Minaya said Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro told him that he had the pieces to get C.C. Sabathia."
In case you missed it last night, the Yankees acquired Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from the Pirates for four "prospects": Jose Tabata, George Kontos, Russ Ross Ohlendorf and Phil Coke. More coverage at Bucs Dugout and Pinstripe Alley.
As with any link dump, I encourage you to add your own links in the comments.
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Ho Hum
I'm still in Austin. Anything interesting happen tonight?
Big winners: Johan Santana, +28.0% WPA, Endy Chavez, +14.1% WPA
Big losers: Pedro Feliciano, -53.1% WPA, Duaner Sanchez, -23.6% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Delgado two-run bomb, +19.2% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Taguchi two-run double, -38.6% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -64.0%
Total batter WPA: +14.0%
Game Thread Roll Call
Nice job by LOUtheMETfan; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.
| Name | # of Posts |
|---|---|
| LOUtheMETfan | 117 |
| BobbyV_Incognito | 76 |
| itsmetsforme | 46 |
| pingel | 24 |
| Prince | 22 |
| DoctorK16 | 15 |
| Rod Gaspar Fan Club | 15 |
| Endys Game | 14 |
| Greenpoint Ian | 12 |
| englishgrey | 9 |
| ZaBlanc | 6 |
| Shomov | 5 |
| metsexile | 3 |
| JE | 2 |
| jemagee | 1 |
| elifriedman | 1 |
10 comments | 0 recs
A Split
More of the same here as the Mets follow up an excruciating loss with a laugher, roughing up Mitchell Boggs for eleven runs and ten hits in six innings. Boggs was in take-one-for-the-team mode, as the Mets scored nine of their runs in the first three innings. Carlos Beltran had the night off, and it was good to see this team score some runs when one of their big bats is out of the lineup. I guess it helps when the planets align and Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley get two hits apiece. One of them, fine, I'll buy it. Two of them, sure, crazy things happen all the time. But all three? The odds of that happening are vanishingly small, and unless you're that girl that got struck by lightning AND won the lottery, the likelihood of it happening again are equally slim. Having Ryan Church's bat ine the lineup and what I can only guess is a wardrobe entirely furnished by Abercrombie and Fitch back in the locker room adds quite a bit of depth to the offense (Church's intramural beer pong team is thrilled to have him back as well, I'm told). No longer can teams pitch around the first four batters and bank on fifteen straight outs to follow.
What's more, Mike Pelfrey is very rapidly transforming into a stud. The pitch he struck out Pujols on in the first inning was downright filthy, and he got plenty of groundballs and popups en route to allowing just one run over seven innings. His fastball is definitely a plus pitch right now, and with each start his secondary pitches seem to be getting a little bit better. They're still nothing special; maybe not even an average pitch among them, but his heater is so good right now that even marginal progress with his off-speed pitches will lead to dramatic results when he's out there. He's not there yet, but I could see him following along the Brandon Webb career path. I'm not going to delude myself into thinking he'll be as good as Webb, but there are enough similarities to project Pelfrey as a possible poor man's version of Webb in a couple of years. Pelfrey just turned 24 and is in his third partial season -- first full season -- with the Mets. He's had plenty of ups and downs since turning pro, especially at the big league level, but he's making real strides towards becoming a pitcher, not the proverbial thrower.
Big winners: Damion Easley, +11.4% WPA, Mike Pelfrey, +11.3% WPA
Big losers: Ramon Castro, -1.9% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Damion Easley RBI single in first, +8.1% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Castro lineout in first, -2.7% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +11.4%
Total batter WPA: +38.6%
Game Thread Roll Call
Nice job by JE; his effort in last night's game thread embiggens us all.
| Name | # of Posts |
|---|---|
| JE | 24 |
| citislicker | 18 |
| itsmetsforme | 14 |
| Reg Dunlop | 7 |
| DoctorK16 | 7 |
| JohnPeterson | 6 |
| Prince | 5 |
| JoshNY | 3 |
| metsexile | 2 |
| Endys Game | 2 |
1 comment | 0 recs
Mid-Season Report Cards
Everybody else is doing it, so why can't we? Forty-one-ish games into the season and the Mets have had an up-and-down three months to say the least. Things could be a whole lot worse, though, even if the Mets have fallen well short of expectations to this point. That's what these mid-season report cards often come down to: how did Player X perform relative to what could have been reasonably expected of him? So with that as our lead-in, here are my first-half grades.
Rotation - C: The starting rotation appeared to be a strength heading into the season, and I guess relative to the offense it *has* been pretty good, but again we're talking about expectations and in that regard the Mets' starters have disappointed as a whole. Mets starters are eighth in the league in ERA and ninth in WHIP, which is fine for a middling team with a small-town payroll, but these are the Ny Effing Mets with more money committed to player salaries than any other team in the National League, so middle of the pack isn't going to cut it. Pedro has been either awful or injured and, while I think he'll pull out of it alright, he's giving the Mets nothing right now. Santana has been fine; unspectacular, but still very good. Oliver Perez, save his most recent outstanding start against the Yankees, has been equal parts terrible and inconsistent. Maine has been pretty good, though not last night.
Rock stars: Mike Pelfrey, I guess
Boxcar hobos: Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez
Bullpen - B-: This grade could be a bit higher because most of the bullpen principals have been quite good. Billy Wagner, with the exception of that execrable stretch of three games at the beginning of June, has been awesome. Scott Schoeneweis's low-three ERA seems unsustainable give his 12-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he's been solid despite any smoke and/or mirrors he keeps stashed in his locker. Joe Smith has been inconsistent, but his numbers are pretty good across the board. Feliciano continues to walk a lot of guys, but his ERA and strikeout rates are very strong again. Duaner Sanchez was said to be the key to this relief corps heading into the season, and he's been decent. Like Smith, his numbers are mostly solid, though his ERA is nigh four and his strikeout rate is unspectacular. Aaron Heilman was horrendous in April and May but ungodly in June, so there may be hope for him yet.
Rock stars: Billy Wagner, Pedro Feliciano
Boxcar hobos: Matt Wise, Jorge Sosa
Offense - C-: I'm a little torn on this grade because I'm not sure how much blame to assign to the players and how much should be heaped on the front office and ownership. The offense has not been very good, but a lot of the guys who haven't been very good were known before they even took a swing to not be very good. Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, Fernando Tatis: these are not good players. I hate them because they suck, but I don't blame them so much because even their respective mothers could have told us they were terrible. I'll go back to my favorite analogy to these bums: I don't blame a spoon for being unable to to cut my steak; it's a tool ill fit for the job, much like Tatis playing baseball. After a slow start, Jose Reyes has been terrific, and is at or around the top ten players in baseball in VORP. His power is much improved over last season and his walk rate has crept back up to the rate he established last season. Wright has been a little underwhelming, but I still feel like he could break out at any moment. Beltran has been his typical emotionally-subdued but otherwise extremely productive self. Delgado drove in nine runs the other day, so he's good for zippo over the next six weeks now. Church has been mostly terrific and partially injured, but his on-field performance has exceeded any expectations I had of him.
Rock stars: Ryan Church, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran (yes, Carlos Beltran)
Boxcar hobos: Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Brian Schneider
Manager(s) - C: I don't really know how to evaluate managers, and I don't know if I ever will. Willie Randolph seemed like a nice enough guy, though he had awkward bullpen usage and often relied too heavily on established, ineffective veterans in all facets of play (bullpen, offense, defense). I didn't always care for his lineup construction, and rumors trickled in after his ouster that he had lost his clubhouse. All of this paints a pretty crummy picture of him as a manager, but even considering all of that I still don't know that he cost the Mets any more than a few games over the course of a season relative to a "great" manager, whomever that might be. Jerry Manual took over and has shown a bit more fire and a little less reliance on "his guys".
Front office - D-: Omar Minaya brought in Johan Santana for a truckload of money and a mixed bag of prospects, and despite his best efforts the Lastings Milledge deal has sorta worked out for the Mets so far (though perhaps not in the long run). However, his biggest failing (stop me if you've heard this one before) was his inability to provide reasonable contingency plans for injuries to Moises Alou and continued ineptitude from Carlos Delgado. That the first line of support has been the likes of Tatis, Anderson and Chavez is as big an indictment of Minaya's shortcomings as a GM as anything you could hold against Randolph as a manager. There are some important decisions to be made in the next three weeks about the viability of this team as a legitimate playoff contender, but despite assurances from ownership that his job is safe, Minaya has to feel that this could be a watershed season in his career as Mets GM. The NL East seems weak enough that a small bump could put the Mets over the top, but will Minaya trade away what few chips remain in the farm system for a shot at the postseason? Unfortunately, his short-term outlook and the Mets' long-term success may be diametrically opposed come July 31.
Overall - C-: The Mets are still just three (or so) games out in the NL East, but clearly they have failed to meet expectations in almost every area of their play. There's still a half-season to turn things around, but it'll get late early (Yogi!) if they keep losing every other game.
Agree or disagree, leave your grades in the comments. Or, go one step further and make some prognostications about the next 41 81 (or 40 80, now) games.
9 comments | 0 recs
iPhones and Jorge Sosa

Bad News: The Mets still don't have a fifth starter, though it could very well be Jorge Sosa. We know that Mike Pelfrey and Orlando Hernandez have done little to distinguish themselves this spring, though I think it's safe to assume that once Hernandez is back in game shape that he will take the ball every five, at least until he succumbs to some random malady that is only supposed to afflict 80-year-old Jewish men.
Meanwhile, Jorge Sosa might be the man to make a couple of April starts while Hernandez is still working the kinks out of his antique engine. Sosa was credible as a starter last season, posting a 4.59 ERA in 80.1 innings; nothing flashy, but completely serviceable for the last line guy in the rotation. He was terrific to begin the season and fell apart shortly thereafter, but with any luck the Mets will only need him for a few outings at the very most, so hopefully he can get in and out before things inevitable go "boom".
In other news, Reed Johnson signed with the Cubs, so despite Dan Scotto's ovations from Queens, Johnson will be suiting up on the North Side and the Mets will break camp with Endy Chavez, Angel Pagan and maybe, just maybe, Brady Clark as their three-four-five outfielders.
Speaking of Endy, I love the guy; I was at Shea for the catch, and Jebus knows that Endy will be living off the residuals of that magnificent piece of glovework for the rest of his days. That said, he's really a stinker with the bat. He plays a mighty fine defensive outfield regardless of where you put him, but he would have considerable difficulty hitting his way out of a paper bag and for a team with championship aspirations I really wonder if great defense is enough to slide by at a premium offensive position like left field. No one is saying that defense isn't important, but it's not nearly as important as offense, and the Mets are going to be sorely lacking in that department from a certain corner outfield spot as long as Moises Alou and his pee-hands are on the shelf.
I'm going to be out of town for the day, though I'll be back tomorrow night. Not that any of you care, but I'll have limited access to the internets or, at least, this site, so I expect the three of you who regularly post comments here to behave yourselves.
Here are some links.
- Rob Neyer thinks that David Wright will be the best player in baseball over the next five years. That's good news for the Mets, and Mets fans, and teeny boppers. Neyer put together a list of the top fifty ballplayers over the next five years, and the Mets have three such gentlemen in the top seven: the aforementioned Wright at numero uno, Johan Santana at #5 and Jose Reyes at #7. Carlos Beltran clocks in at #26, just for good measure.
- Over The Monster compiled a PDF preview of more than 50 Red Sox players. The list is very sharp and informative, and it's something we should consider doing here if I had either the time or the inclination to do so.
- Someone named Joe Lavin found a pre-release copy of the new Jose Canseco tell-all at a local bookstore, mistakedly put on the shelf a solid week before it was supposed to go on sale. I bought Canseco's first book, Juiced from the bargain shelf at Borders for less than three bucks, and it was actually far from awful. I was a big fan of Canseco during my formative baseball years, so some of my enjoyment was likely derived from nostalgia for the slugger, but the fact that much of what he wrote actually turned out to be true scares me more than I would care to let on.
- John Sickels asks if Twins fans will be satisfied with their return on the Johan Santana trade in five years time (ed note: what's with all of the "five years" articles today?"). My guess is "No", they won't be satisfied.
- I missed this last week, but Joe Sheehan talked about small sample sizes and the absurdity of using spring training stats as any kind of barometer for future big league success over at Baseball Prospectus.
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