Seven hours or so until the non-waiver trade deadline and all is quiet on the Mets' front. The odd rumor about Raul Ibanez or Arthur Rhodes appears to have faded into the background as names like Ivan Rodriguez, Kyle Farnsworth and Latroy Hawkins change teams. Not that I'd be especially interested in any of those guys, though Pudge would represent an upgrade over Brian Schneider, if not so much over Ramon Castro (Pudge's otherworldly gamer-ness and clutchitude notwithstanding).

A few years ago, a team like the Reds that had no intention of resigning a player like Adam Dunn would just trade him to whomever would give them the best return. Now, thanks largely to Billy Beane, the Reds know that holding onto Dunn and allowing him to walk away at the end of the season means two fat draft picks for them next June. Armed with that information, the Reds can insist on a return that they value at least as much as those picks. If they don't find another team willing to pony up the players or prospects to meet or exceed the perceived value of those picks, well the Reds will just close up shop, book a couple of months worth of Dunn bombs and then wave goodbye in October.

Ibanez is in a similar position, though he isn't nearly as valuable as Dunn in the short- or long-term. Regardless, he will likely be a Type A free agent this offseason and would be worth the same two draft picks as Dunn or Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez or any other Type A. Were the current compensation system burned and discarded, the Mariners couldn't hope to get much more than a Carlos Muniz for Ibanez. As it stands, they're asking for Jon Niese or Robert Parnell, and the Mets are wise not to budge on those demands. If the Mets could get Ibanez for a couple of so-so prospects it'd be a coup, if only for the draft picks, and I guess the slightly-better-than-marginal upgrade that Ibanez represents over Endy Chavez. Chavez is a crummy hitter, but Ibanez is nothing to write home about, and over the course of 60 games the difference is almost negligible. Of course, the Mets proved last year that every game counts (as if we didn't already know that), so I suppose every little bit helps.

One rumor yesterday indicated that the Diamondbacks offered Chad Tracy for Dunn. That sounds like a pretty good deal for the Reds, and the Mets probably can't compete with that. The closest they have to Tracy would be Mike Carp, who has hit well at Binghamton. The caveat there is that he is repeating the league, so his performance is a little less impressive than it might have been last season.

Some small part of me thinks that Omar Minaya will pull off a last-minute deal for a name that we haven't even heard. I keep harping on Aaron Harang for some reason, mostly because he is still reasonably aged, is signed to a decent contract, and may actually be a bit undervalued this year as a result of his 4.76 ERA (95 ERA+). His peripheral stats are all very strong: 108 strikeouts, 34 walks in 123.0 innings. His .331 BABIP is quite a bit higher than his career norm of .314 and well above the usual league norm (~.300). His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.24, which is a half-run lower than his actual ERA. Maybe he's run into a bit of bad luck this season. Again, as I've mentioned each time I've fawned over Harang these past few days, there's no real reason to believe that he's available, considering all of those things I just mentioned. Still, I have a funny feeling that Minaya might pull something out of his ass. He's got seven hours, so he better get some lube.

Then again, the non-waiver trade deadline is exactly that: the last day players can be traded from one team to another without having to pass through waivers. As we've seen in recent years, plenty of transactions take place in August despite the specter of waiver claims hanging over any deal. I don't necessarily think that a Manny Ramirez would clear waivers without being plucked by some team, but Jarrod Washburn or someone like that could. So, even if the Mets don't get anything done by 4pm EDT that doesn't mean they won't try to improve the team in August.

Handsome reader Steve sent me an e-mail yesterday asking why I didn't cover starting pitching in my Mets' needs post. In short, I didn't really think that the Mets' rotation was a big problem. Steve pointed out that the Mets are facing two holes in the rotation next season as Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez become free agents, and that maybe the Mets should look to shore up one of those spots now.

All of this preceded John Maine's early exit last night due to shoulder stiffness, so either Steve is more prescient than he lets on or he's just an advocate for general preparedness. Either way, regardless of Maine's status I'll take this space to address the Mets' starting pitching situation.

Area of need: starting pitching

A lot can change in a few months, for better or worse. At the end of April, the Mets had two dependable starters: Johan Santana and John Maine. At the end of July, they have seemingly three dependable starters: Santana, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez. Maine has become undependable because of the rash of mysterious injuries he has incurred over the past couple of weeks. Absent those, he is at least moderately dependable: he'll usually go six-ish innings, though the quality of those innings could vary widely.

Pedro Martinez is still technically on the bereavement list following his father's death, though he is slated to throw an extended bullpen session tomorrow and is slated to start on Friday against the Astros in Houston. There's no telling what the Mets will get from Pedro, though. His game scores since coming back from the disabled list at the beginning of June have gone thusly: 46, 35, 57, 25, 32, 36, 53, 60. That last mark is deceiving, because Pedro left after just four innings with -- wait for it -- shoulder stiffness, just like Maine last night. So Pedro will not have pitched in a game in almost three weeks when he takes the mound on Friday, and any expectations for this start or even the rest of the season are a crapshoot at best.

Santana has been mostly great, and the Mets have nothing to worry about there. Pelfrey has been their next-best starter over the last two months, and he looks to be the real deal. He's bound to hit some bumps in the road one of these days, but his achievements this season stand on their own and I think have given him -- and perhaps more importantly, the Mets -- the confidence that he can be a successful big league pitcher. He turned 24 in January and will be cheap and under the Mets' control for a long time, which is plenty exciting.

Perez was mostly awful for the better part of the first three months of the season, but some combination of Dan Warthen and facial hair have suited Perez well, as he has been dominant over his last four starts. Blip or semi-permanent fix, who's to say, but he's the Mets' number three at this point. As mentioned earlier, he is also a free agent at the end of the season, and there's maybe a 50/50 chance that he returns given that he's very young and is likely to be very expensive as a client of Scott Boras.

So what to do? I don't know that there are too many attractive starting pitchers out there. A.J. Burnett will apparently not be traded, and his teammate Roy Halladay, floated a couple of weeks ago, would cost an arm and a leg and, in terms of tradeable talent, the Mets are squarely in the triple-amputee camp. Roy Oswalt? The Astros are evidently buyers in this market. Would the Reds make Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo available? They're both in the middle of long-term contracts, and Harang was awesome as recently as last year. He currently sports a 4.76 ERA despite an impressive 108-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 123 innings. He turned 30 in May and would be a very attractive option, but there's little reason to believe that the Reds would even make him available.

Things get more interesting *after* the season, when the likes of C. C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and others hit free agency. The aforementioned Burnett can also opt out of his deal with the Blue Jays this winter, and all indications are that he will do just that. Unless a great deal falls in their lap I expect the Mets to stick with what they've got and hope that Maine's injury woes cease to be and Pedro can return at least to serviceability. There may be some interesting names popping up in August when players have to pass through waivers to be traded, so just because July 31 passes doesn't mean the trading season is over.

Synopsis

The Reds are in disarray, languishing in last place in the NL Central and having already ousted General Manager Wayne Krivsky in favor of former Cardinals' taskmaster Walt Jocketty. Despite the best efforts of manager Dusty Baker, none of the Reds' pitchers have had season-ending arm injuries and the offense is in the middle of the pack in team walks. Not exactly the Elysium that Baker had envisioned when he took over this past offseason, but he least he no longer has to worry about Barry Bonds clogging up the bases all the time. Or, you know, winning baseball games.

Record

NL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
St. Louis	22	14	.611	-	14-7	8-7	166	142	Lost 2	6-4
Chicago Cubs	19	15	.559	2	11-6	8-9	195	151	Lost 1	3-7
Houston	18	16	.529	3	11-5	7-11	162	152	Won 5	6-4
Milwaukee	16	17	.485	4.5	7-6	9-11	144	161	Lost 5	3-7
Pittsburgh	15	19	.441	6	9-7	6-12	171	192	Won 3	6-4
Cincinnati	14	21	.400	7.5	8-9	6-12	146	170	Won 1	4-6

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
14.	21.	146	170	15.0	20.0	16.3	18.7	17.3	17.7

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

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Neither their record nor their run differential is impressive, but if we consider equivalence runs scored and allowed (i.e. expected runs based on offensive components like OBP and SLG) and adjust for the strength of the Reds' opponents this year, their computer-ized record is much closer to .500. None of this changes the fact that the Reds have *actually* lost 60% of their games this year, but it might portend a smoother ride in the weeks ahead.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	SNLVAR	VORP
Aaron Harang	1	5	3.09	55.1	7.81	7.64	2.11	0.81	1.6	14.2
Bronson Arroyo*	1	4	8.63	32.1	13.92	8.07	3.62	2.23	-0.8	(-13.9)
Johnny Cueto*	2	3	5.27	41.0	8.34	9.00	1.76	1.54	0.3	0.4
Edinson Volquez	5	1	1.06	42.1	5.95	11.06	5.10	0.21	2.3	20.7
Matt Belisle*	1	2	6.91	14.1	15.70	4.40	1.26	1.26	-0.2	(-3.9)
Josh Fogg	1	2	9.27	22.1	11.69	6.85	3.22	2.01	-0.5	(-10.7)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

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Reds' starters are averaging an absurd 8.48 strikeouts per nine innings. Averaging! For the sake of comparison, Mets starters are averaging 7.01 strikeouts per nine innings, good for fifth in the National League. They have one starter -- Johan Santana at 9.13 -- who is averaging more than Cincinnati's entire rotation. Santana's the only Met starter averaging better than 7.5 whiffs per game, and on a given day whomever the Reds throw out there will strikeout an extra batter on top of that.

Unfortunately, the Reds' starters have the fourth-worst aggregate ERA and have allowed the fourth-most homeruns in the NL.

Aaron Harang is having another nice year, peripheral-wise, even though his record hardly reflects that. His strikeouts are down a bit relative to his recent seasonal numbers, but he is hardly walking anyone and is 1-5 on the season thanks to his offense only scoring 2.76 runs per game.

Rookie Johnny Cueto has struck out exactly a batter per inning and is walking fewer than two every nine innings, leaving him with a remarkable strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranks among the best in the league. Like the rest of the Reds' staff, Cueto has been burned by the long ball, coughing up seven in just 41 innings of work this season. Overall he has been their most well-balanced starter, a fact that belies his pedestrian 5.27 ERA.

Edinson Volquez was the key to the deal that sent Josh Hamilton to the Rangers last offseason, and his statistical profile this season is fascinating. Volquez is leading the National League with a 1.06 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 42.1 innings. He is also fourth in the league in walks (42) and has allowed just one homerun so far. He throws four different pitches: a 93 MPH fastball (57.6%), an 83 MPH slider (7.9%), a 77 MPH curveball (7.7%) and a 77 MPH changeup (26.8%). An expansive repertoire, though the Mets are fortunate to avoid it this series.

Bronson Arroyo has been dreadful this season, but much portion of his struggles can be attributed to horrible luck and a penchant for the longball. Arroyo has a solid strikeout rate and a passable walk rate, though his homerun rate -- 2.23 per nine -- is cartoonishly bad. His .403 BABIP is extraordinarily high, and this is where luck seems to have played a part in his rough go of it. The league average BABIP is around .300, so Arroyo is allowing hits on balls in play about a third more often than the rest of the league. He *is* giving up a lot of line drives, but I would expect both of those to come down over the course of a long season. Of course, his 8.63 ERA isn't the sort of thing that keeps a pitcher in the starting rotation for a whole season. See: Zito, Barry.

Matt Belisle is a 28-year-old righty with good control and a career 92 ERA+. He was handed his spot in the rotation by Josh Fogg and his 9.27 ERA. And that's the story of Matt Belisle.

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WPA Top Two
Edinson Volquez, 1.06 WPA
Aaron Harang, 0.70 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Bronson Arroyo, -1.53 WPA
Josh Fogg, -0.90 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SB	CS	EqA	VORP	NL Rank
*Paul Bako	C	96	.310	.375	.552	4	9	0	1	.290	8.0	6/31
*Joey Votto	1B	105	.302	.362	.583	7	9	1	1	.270	9.8	6/20
Brandon Phillips	2B	143	.276	.315	.493	6	8	5	2	.261	8.5	3/31
Jeff Keppinger	SS	142	.292	.336	.392	2	9	2	0	.254	6.5	9/24
Edwin Encarnacion	3B	139	.258	.360	.492	7	19	1	0	.287	8.0	5/18
*Adam Dunn	LF	133	.219	.376	.429	6	27	1	0	.272	4.0	9/28
*Corey Patterson	CF	105	.200	.260	.421	4	8	5	2	.237	(-0.6)	15/23
*Ken Griffey Jr.	RF	142	.244	.317	.378	4	13	0	1	.237	(-2.1)	18/19

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

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Joey Votto was a second-round pick of the Reds back in 2002 and after impressing in limited action last season has been one of the Reds' best hitters this season. His .583 slugging percentage is tenth-best in the National League, and he blasted three of his seven homeruns on Wednesday against the Cubs. He has completely displaced Scott Hatteberg as the Reds' starting first-baseman.

Paul Bako, 36-year-old catcher and a career .237/.309/.326 hitter is hitting .310/.375/.552 this season. He was signed as a free agent after leaving the Orioles following the 2006 season, and will make a million bucks or so this year. The Mets probably could've had him for Lastings Milledge if they had asked really nicely.

Ken Griffey Jr. is stumbling towards 600 career homeruns. He has been mostly miserable at the plate this year, but expect the load to lighten a bit once he hits his milestone. He's not the player he once was, but he was quite good as recently as last season, so unless he pulls a Carlos Delgado there's no reason to believe that he will regress into obsolescence so precipitously.

Former Met Jeff Keppinger has hit pretty well at short for the Reds, though his .254 EqA is nothing to write home about. He had a nice little run last season but still profiles as more of a utility infielder than a starter. That notwithstanding, hHis 6.5 VORP actually places him in the top ten among NL shortstops, so as long as he keeps hitting the Reds could do a whole lot worse.

Adam Dunn is a free agent after this season, but his .219 batting average and .429 slugging are going to be tough sells in left or at first base, the two weakest defensive positions on the diamond and historically the easiest positions at which to find offense. The Mets could very well be buyers at both positions next offseason, and Dunn might be a less expensive (albeit still expensive) alternative to Mark Teixeira.

Despite the low average -- and Jeff Brantley's infamous proclamations of non-clutchiness -- Edwin Encarnacion has turned into one of the better offensive third-basemen in the league. He is drawing walks and hitting for power, which is more than I can say for...

Corey Patterson has a .260 on-base percentage. Try to wrap your head around that.

Brandon Phillips rounds out the starting eight and, despite being allergic to walks, has shown very good power and is one of the best offensive keystoners in the National League. His six homeruns would tie him for the team lead were he on the Mets, and gives him exactly six more homeruns than Luis Castillo will hit in the next four years.

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WPA Top Two
Edwin Encarnacion, 0.66 WPA
Joey Votto, 0.45 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Adam Dunn, -0.53 WPA
Brandon Phillips, -0.47 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WXRL	VORP
Francisco Cordero	2.08	13.0	6.23	8.31	6.92	0.00	1.243	5.1
*Jeremy Affeldt	3.07	14.2	7.36	11.05	4.91	0.61	0.219	4.2
Jared Burton	4.02	15.2	9.77	12.64	2.87	1.72	-0.189	0.8
Mike Lincoln	3.60	15.0	9.00	5.40	1.20	0.60	0.595	2.4
*Kent Mercker	3.86	11.2	9.26	4.63	5.40	0.77	-0.174	2.3
David Weathers	3.86	9.1	10.61	2.89	7.71	0.00	-0.494	1.9

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The Reds have an interesting mix of arms in their 'pen. They have two guys who have struck out more than eleven batters per nine innings -- Jared Burton and Jeremy Affeldt -- and two more who have struck out fewer than five -- the elderly Kent Mercker and David Weathers.

Big-money closer Francisco Cordero has been effective, but he has walked almost seven batters per nine innings, dishing out ten free passes in thirteen innings so far. The Reds have him for four years and $40-something million, so while his 2.08 ERA looks nice now, if he keeps walking the ballpark he could be in big trouble soon. And by "trouble" I mean "bad ERA but still making a poopload of money".

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WPA Top Two
Francisco Cordero, 1.05 WPA
Mike Lincoln, 0.37 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
David Weathers, -0.66 WPA
Jared Burton, -0.44 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SB	CS	EqA	VORP
David Ross	Bench1	13	.167	.231	.250	0	1	0	0	.153	(-1.1)
#Javier Valentin	Bench2	31	.207	.258	.241	0	2	0	0	.163	(-2.0)
Jerry Hairston	Bench3	32	.345	.367	.517	1	1	1	1	.260	2.7
*Scott Hatteberg	Bench4	47	.128	.255	.179	0	7	0	1	.154	(-5.0)
Ryan Freel	Bench5	75	.304	.347	.362	0	5	4	3	.250	1.2

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One look at Scott Hatteberg's numbers and it's no wonder Joey Votto is starting at first now. Hatteberg has a great eye at the plate, and could be a nice right-handed complement to Carlos Delgado were he available on the cheap.

Jerry Hairston is off to a great start in extremely limited action. Javier Valentin is Jose Valentin's brother. Ryan Freel runs into walls. David Ross has a boring name.

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Managerial Tendencies

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	55	12/16
Stolen Base Attempts	33	7/16
Sacrifice Bunts	17	2/16

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Not listed here: young arms destroyed, guys who bled internally and runs scored on walks.

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Key Injuries

Norris Hopper

Alex Gonzalez