Not Pelfrey's best outing, but the Mets are back in a tie for first place, so woot! Pelfrey got off to a great start and looked completely dominant through the first three innings. Basically every out recorded was either a groundball or a strikeout, which is exactly what he needs to happen to be successful. Things fell apart in the fourth, as Pelfrey starting leaving the ball up in the zone and the Reds' hitters jumped all over him. His fastball didn't have the sharp downward bite that it had earlier in the game, and good hitters will hit a 94-MPH fastball if it's not moving anywhere. Pelfrey ultimately allowed three homeruns -- to Dunn, Phillips and Encarnacion -- after allowing just four homeruns all season. His 9-to-8 groundball-to-flyball ratio was not especially good (for a groundball pitcher), and the more more balls are hit in the air the greater the likelihood of them leaving the park, especially in Cincinnati.

It wasn't all bad for Pelfrey, though. He was extremely economical with his pitches, throwing just 89 in seven innings of work. Even though he didn't have his A+ stuff he did an adequate job keeping the Mets in the game, slogging through those seven innings and giving the Mets a shot at winning the thing. Thanks to Robinson Cancel's leadoff double in the tenth and the mildly inaccurate arm of Edwin Encarnacion the Mets managed a split of the four-game series. The Mets may have been thinking sweep when the series started, but they should be happy to walk away with two victories. They trailed late in both of the games they eventually won, so a bad break or two and this would've been a tough-to-swallow four-game sweep.

And now for everyone's favorite segment, a little something we like to call "Why the !@#$ is Marlon Anderson still on the roster?". Anderson somehow (divine intervention?) went 1-for-3 at the plate, but whatever value that might've added was wiped out manyfold by his spectacularly ass-headed defensive maneuver in the fourth inning. Ken Griffey hit a flyball down the left-field line to lead off the bottom of the fourth inning which Marlon loafed after as if the ball were clearly headed into the stands. Much to Marlon's surprise, the ball landed some fifteen feet fair and Marlon had to pretend he actually gave a crap as it bounded into the stands for a ground-rule double. Is this the best we can do? Kinda reminds me of that scene in Wayne's World 2.

Wayne: Where's the First Presbyterian Church on Gordon Street?
Gas Station Attendant: *bumbling silence*
Wayne: Gordon Street!
Gas Station Attendant: Oh, yeah. I ... once knew a girl ... who lived on Gordon Street ... but that was a long time ago ... when I was young.
Wayne: Do we have to put up with this? Can't we get a better actor? I know it's a small part, but we can do better than this.

And then Chuck Heston steps in and nails the bit part, bringing Wayne to tears in the process. I realize Marlon Anderson is the 25th man on the roster, but can't we do better than this? Where's our Chuck Heston?

While we're at it, why isn't Ramon Castro playing three days a week, let alone five days a week? Schneider is 33rd in baseball in EqA among catchers with at least 80 plate appearances at .234. That's cherry-picking a bit, as I lowered the bar enough to get Castro and his 93 plate appearances in there. If we bump it up to 150 PA Schneider is at 26th out of 38. That's bad. Not as bad as I thought, actually, but there are still 25 catchers out there that have been better, which is just under one per team. Given 150 PA I'm certain Castro could do better. I'm pretty sure if Castro flipped around and batted lefty he could do better. Robinson Cancel could probably do better. Hell, Raul Casanova is at .253 in 61 plate appearances.

I'm making a plea here: C'mon, Jerry, give your team a fighting chance. Let's make believe for one day that you're *not* a slave to mindless baseball decision-making they way Willie Randolph was. Shock us. Yea, the Mets have won a bunch of games since you took over and they're tied for first place. These are all good things. But when you consistently make choices that put your team at a disadvantage, it just means that the Mets have to do more to overcome the nigh-untenable position you're putting them in. Plainly, they're winning despite you, not because of you. Marlon Anderson hasn't done anything this year to justify significant pinch-hitting appearances, let alone ever starting in a baseball game. Brian Schneider's erstwhile reputation as a plus defender is not a good enough reason to play him in lieu of a clearly superior catcher. Just put the best team you have out there as often as you can and the rest will work itself out.

Big winners: Duaner Sanchez, +25.3% WPA, Carlos Delgado, +21.2% WPA
Big losers: Endy Chavez, -36.4% WPA, Mike Pelfrey, -18.0% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Castro goes blastro, +19.7% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Brandon Phillips homerun, -17.4% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +17.0%
Total batter WPA: +33.0%

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Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by BobbyV_Incognito; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Name	# of Posts
BobbyV_Incognito	41
kingcritical	27
itsmetsforme	19
pingel	13
ZaBlanc	5
DoctorK16	5
Shomov	4
JoshNY	4
ams258	3
sireric	2

Synopsis

The Reds are in disarray, languishing in last place in the NL Central and having already ousted General Manager Wayne Krivsky in favor of former Cardinals' taskmaster Walt Jocketty. Despite the best efforts of manager Dusty Baker, none of the Reds' pitchers have had season-ending arm injuries and the offense is in the middle of the pack in team walks. Not exactly the Elysium that Baker had envisioned when he took over this past offseason, but he least he no longer has to worry about Barry Bonds clogging up the bases all the time. Or, you know, winning baseball games.

Record

NL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
St. Louis	22	14	.611	-	14-7	8-7	166	142	Lost 2	6-4
Chicago Cubs	19	15	.559	2	11-6	8-9	195	151	Lost 1	3-7
Houston	18	16	.529	3	11-5	7-11	162	152	Won 5	6-4
Milwaukee	16	17	.485	4.5	7-6	9-11	144	161	Lost 5	3-7
Pittsburgh	15	19	.441	6	9-7	6-12	171	192	Won 3	6-4
Cincinnati	14	21	.400	7.5	8-9	6-12	146	170	Won 1	4-6

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
14.	21.	146	170	15.0	20.0	16.3	18.7	17.3	17.7

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

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Neither their record nor their run differential is impressive, but if we consider equivalence runs scored and allowed (i.e. expected runs based on offensive components like OBP and SLG) and adjust for the strength of the Reds' opponents this year, their computer-ized record is much closer to .500. None of this changes the fact that the Reds have *actually* lost 60% of their games this year, but it might portend a smoother ride in the weeks ahead.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	SNLVAR	VORP
Aaron Harang	1	5	3.09	55.1	7.81	7.64	2.11	0.81	1.6	14.2
Bronson Arroyo*	1	4	8.63	32.1	13.92	8.07	3.62	2.23	-0.8	(-13.9)
Johnny Cueto*	2	3	5.27	41.0	8.34	9.00	1.76	1.54	0.3	0.4
Edinson Volquez	5	1	1.06	42.1	5.95	11.06	5.10	0.21	2.3	20.7
Matt Belisle*	1	2	6.91	14.1	15.70	4.40	1.26	1.26	-0.2	(-3.9)
Josh Fogg	1	2	9.27	22.1	11.69	6.85	3.22	2.01	-0.5	(-10.7)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

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Reds' starters are averaging an absurd 8.48 strikeouts per nine innings. Averaging! For the sake of comparison, Mets starters are averaging 7.01 strikeouts per nine innings, good for fifth in the National League. They have one starter -- Johan Santana at 9.13 -- who is averaging more than Cincinnati's entire rotation. Santana's the only Met starter averaging better than 7.5 whiffs per game, and on a given day whomever the Reds throw out there will strikeout an extra batter on top of that.

Unfortunately, the Reds' starters have the fourth-worst aggregate ERA and have allowed the fourth-most homeruns in the NL.

Aaron Harang is having another nice year, peripheral-wise, even though his record hardly reflects that. His strikeouts are down a bit relative to his recent seasonal numbers, but he is hardly walking anyone and is 1-5 on the season thanks to his offense only scoring 2.76 runs per game.

Rookie Johnny Cueto has struck out exactly a batter per inning and is walking fewer than two every nine innings, leaving him with a remarkable strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranks among the best in the league. Like the rest of the Reds' staff, Cueto has been burned by the long ball, coughing up seven in just 41 innings of work this season. Overall he has been their most well-balanced starter, a fact that belies his pedestrian 5.27 ERA.

Edinson Volquez was the key to the deal that sent Josh Hamilton to the Rangers last offseason, and his statistical profile this season is fascinating. Volquez is leading the National League with a 1.06 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 42.1 innings. He is also fourth in the league in walks (42) and has allowed just one homerun so far. He throws four different pitches: a 93 MPH fastball (57.6%), an 83 MPH slider (7.9%), a 77 MPH curveball (7.7%) and a 77 MPH changeup (26.8%). An expansive repertoire, though the Mets are fortunate to avoid it this series.

Bronson Arroyo has been dreadful this season, but much portion of his struggles can be attributed to horrible luck and a penchant for the longball. Arroyo has a solid strikeout rate and a passable walk rate, though his homerun rate -- 2.23 per nine -- is cartoonishly bad. His .403 BABIP is extraordinarily high, and this is where luck seems to have played a part in his rough go of it. The league average BABIP is around .300, so Arroyo is allowing hits on balls in play about a third more often than the rest of the league. He *is* giving up a lot of line drives, but I would expect both of those to come down over the course of a long season. Of course, his 8.63 ERA isn't the sort of thing that keeps a pitcher in the starting rotation for a whole season. See: Zito, Barry.

Matt Belisle is a 28-year-old righty with good control and a career 92 ERA+. He was handed his spot in the rotation by Josh Fogg and his 9.27 ERA. And that's the story of Matt Belisle.

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WPA Top Two
Edinson Volquez, 1.06 WPA
Aaron Harang, 0.70 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Bronson Arroyo, -1.53 WPA
Josh Fogg, -0.90 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SB	CS	EqA	VORP	NL Rank
*Paul Bako	C	96	.310	.375	.552	4	9	0	1	.290	8.0	6/31
*Joey Votto	1B	105	.302	.362	.583	7	9	1	1	.270	9.8	6/20
Brandon Phillips	2B	143	.276	.315	.493	6	8	5	2	.261	8.5	3/31
Jeff Keppinger	SS	142	.292	.336	.392	2	9	2	0	.254	6.5	9/24
Edwin Encarnacion	3B	139	.258	.360	.492	7	19	1	0	.287	8.0	5/18
*Adam Dunn	LF	133	.219	.376	.429	6	27	1	0	.272	4.0	9/28
*Corey Patterson	CF	105	.200	.260	.421	4	8	5	2	.237	(-0.6)	15/23
*Ken Griffey Jr.	RF	142	.244	.317	.378	4	13	0	1	.237	(-2.1)	18/19

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

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Joey Votto was a second-round pick of the Reds back in 2002 and after impressing in limited action last season has been one of the Reds' best hitters this season. His .583 slugging percentage is tenth-best in the National League, and he blasted three of his seven homeruns on Wednesday against the Cubs. He has completely displaced Scott Hatteberg as the Reds' starting first-baseman.

Paul Bako, 36-year-old catcher and a career .237/.309/.326 hitter is hitting .310/.375/.552 this season. He was signed as a free agent after leaving the Orioles following the 2006 season, and will make a million bucks or so this year. The Mets probably could've had him for Lastings Milledge if they had asked really nicely.

Ken Griffey Jr. is stumbling towards 600 career homeruns. He has been mostly miserable at the plate this year, but expect the load to lighten a bit once he hits his milestone. He's not the player he once was, but he was quite good as recently as last season, so unless he pulls a Carlos Delgado there's no reason to believe that he will regress into obsolescence so precipitously.

Former Met Jeff Keppinger has hit pretty well at short for the Reds, though his .254 EqA is nothing to write home about. He had a nice little run last season but still profiles as more of a utility infielder than a starter. That notwithstanding, hHis 6.5 VORP actually places him in the top ten among NL shortstops, so as long as he keeps hitting the Reds could do a whole lot worse.

Adam Dunn is a free agent after this season, but his .219 batting average and .429 slugging are going to be tough sells in left or at first base, the two weakest defensive positions on the diamond and historically the easiest positions at which to find offense. The Mets could very well be buyers at both positions next offseason, and Dunn might be a less expensive (albeit still expensive) alternative to Mark Teixeira.

Despite the low average -- and Jeff Brantley's infamous proclamations of non-clutchiness -- Edwin Encarnacion has turned into one of the better offensive third-basemen in the league. He is drawing walks and hitting for power, which is more than I can say for...

Corey Patterson has a .260 on-base percentage. Try to wrap your head around that.

Brandon Phillips rounds out the starting eight and, despite being allergic to walks, has shown very good power and is one of the best offensive keystoners in the National League. His six homeruns would tie him for the team lead were he on the Mets, and gives him exactly six more homeruns than Luis Castillo will hit in the next four years.

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WPA Top Two
Edwin Encarnacion, 0.66 WPA
Joey Votto, 0.45 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Adam Dunn, -0.53 WPA
Brandon Phillips, -0.47 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WXRL	VORP
Francisco Cordero	2.08	13.0	6.23	8.31	6.92	0.00	1.243	5.1
*Jeremy Affeldt	3.07	14.2	7.36	11.05	4.91	0.61	0.219	4.2
Jared Burton	4.02	15.2	9.77	12.64	2.87	1.72	-0.189	0.8
Mike Lincoln	3.60	15.0	9.00	5.40	1.20	0.60	0.595	2.4
*Kent Mercker	3.86	11.2	9.26	4.63	5.40	0.77	-0.174	2.3
David Weathers	3.86	9.1	10.61	2.89	7.71	0.00	-0.494	1.9

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The Reds have an interesting mix of arms in their 'pen. They have two guys who have struck out more than eleven batters per nine innings -- Jared Burton and Jeremy Affeldt -- and two more who have struck out fewer than five -- the elderly Kent Mercker and David Weathers.

Big-money closer Francisco Cordero has been effective, but he has walked almost seven batters per nine innings, dishing out ten free passes in thirteen innings so far. The Reds have him for four years and $40-something million, so while his 2.08 ERA looks nice now, if he keeps walking the ballpark he could be in big trouble soon. And by "trouble" I mean "bad ERA but still making a poopload of money".

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WPA Top Two
Francisco Cordero, 1.05 WPA
Mike Lincoln, 0.37 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
David Weathers, -0.66 WPA
Jared Burton, -0.44 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SB	CS	EqA	VORP
David Ross	Bench1	13	.167	.231	.250	0	1	0	0	.153	(-1.1)
#Javier Valentin	Bench2	31	.207	.258	.241	0	2	0	0	.163	(-2.0)
Jerry Hairston	Bench3	32	.345	.367	.517	1	1	1	1	.260	2.7
*Scott Hatteberg	Bench4	47	.128	.255	.179	0	7	0	1	.154	(-5.0)
Ryan Freel	Bench5	75	.304	.347	.362	0	5	4	3	.250	1.2

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One look at Scott Hatteberg's numbers and it's no wonder Joey Votto is starting at first now. Hatteberg has a great eye at the plate, and could be a nice right-handed complement to Carlos Delgado were he available on the cheap.

Jerry Hairston is off to a great start in extremely limited action. Javier Valentin is Jose Valentin's brother. Ryan Freel runs into walls. David Ross has a boring name.

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Managerial Tendencies

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	55	12/16
Stolen Base Attempts	33	7/16
Sacrifice Bunts	17	2/16

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Not listed here: young arms destroyed, guys who bled internally and runs scored on walks.

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Key Injuries

Norris Hopper

Alex Gonzalez