Amazin' Avenue

Friday Applesauce

2008-11-21T15:44:48Z

News, Signings, Etc.

Daniel Murphy has a strained right hamstring and will skip winter ball in Puerto Rico (what will Nick Evans do now?). The Mets say they still plan to use him as an outfielder, though much of that will depend on what becomes of Luis Castillo.

Yesterday was the deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man roster, a necessary move in order to protect those players from next month's Rule 5 draft. The Mets did just that with Mike Carp.

In case you missed it yesterday, Chase Utley had hip surgery and is expected to miss four-to-six months.

The White Sox have reportedly signed Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo, a 19-year-old third-baseman, for something like $11 million. South Side Sox has more.

The Cardinals have signed lefty Trever Miller to help fill out their bullpen. Neither the deal nor its terms have been officially announced as Miller still needs to undergo the requisite physical. Miller pitched with the Rays last season.

Webstuffs

At MetsGeek, john continues his excellent 2008 profile series with an analysis of Pedro Feliciano.

At his ESPN.com blog, Jason Gray. Gray sort of prattles on a bit about Kunz's poor numbers in Arizona before deciding that he just needs to improve his command. For his part, Kunz didn't think he was so ruff. Gray also adds this tidbit on Daniel Murphy:

Daniel Murphy looked like he could handle second base well enough, given his offensive ability. Whether that's enough for the Mets remains to be seen. He has limitations, but he didn't embarrass himself.

At Bugs & Cranks, Brad Borton lays out the pros and cons of the Mets possibly signing Francisco Rodriguez. It's mostly a rebuttal of all of the reasons Rodriguez might make sense for the Mets, and some of it is tongue-in-cheek, though I take issue with this one:

PRO: "He has thrived in big situations and media pressure his entire career. New York shouldn't phase him at all."
CON: This is what they said about Billy Wagner.

If we accept that injuries happen and that they aren't necessarily the fault of the player, I have few complaints about Wagner's tenure in New York. He burned out down the stretch in 2006 and 2007, but at all other times he was one of the best closers in the league and certainly the best reliever the Mets have had since Armando Benitez circa 1999-2000 (minus the playoffs, of course).

At Cardboard Gods, Josh Wilker busts out a 1976 Topps Dave Kingman and, as is his style, veers wistfully off-topic to discuss how tall ballplayers -- like Kingman -- had it made while shorter guys -- Like Freddie Patek -- often got short shrift.

Joe Posnanski gives us the internet's 27,483rd column on why batting average, homeruns and RsBI, while nice, are outdated and inadequate tools for evaluating -- i.e., determining the value of -- baseball players, for awards voting or otherwise.

New York Mets pitcher Aaron Heilman wants to get out of bullpen

2008-11-20T16:27:47Z

New York Mets pitcher Aaron Heilman wants to get out of bullpen

Trade him, start him, or ignore his request?

Thursday Applesauce

2008-11-20T15:57:42Z

In Arizona:

Eddie Kunz, ruff as always, allowed two runs on a walk and three hits -- including a grand slam -- in just two-thirds of an inning.

In the Dominican Republic:

Fernando Martinez went 0-for-4, and is a total bum.
Argenis Reyes went 0-for-3.
Fernando Tatis went 2-for-4 with two doubles, a run scored and a run batted in.

In Puerto Rico:

Nick Evans went 1-for-3 with a walk and a run scored.
Brahiam Maldonado went 0-for-1 as a pinch-hitter.
Jesus Feliciano went 2-for-4 with a walk, a triple, and two runs scored.

Daniel Murphy will have an MRI taken on his right knee today, of which he has experienced discomfort in since November 11.

At MetsGeek, Dan Scotto takes a peek at the Mets' 2009 schedule, looking for interesting stretches and potential bumps in the road.

Mike Mussina appears headed for retirement. Since 1954 he is 15th in wins, 18th in strikeouts, and 8th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (among pitchers with at least 100 starts). He has been a very, very good pitcher for a really long time. If he isn't a Hall of Famer, he's really, really close.

At Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan breaks down the BBRAA awards voting, chastising where appropriate.

At Sabernomics, JC Bradbury puts a dollar value on Derek Lowe. Agent Scott Boras is reportedly looking for a "Zito-type" deal. The annual salary might not be far off (~$18 million a year), but you'd have a tough time finding someone willing to give a soon-to-be 36-year-old a seven-year deal.

The Red Sox' surplus of outfielders led to Coco Crisp being traded to the Royals yesterday in exchange for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Beyond the Boxscore breaks it down. FanGraphs does, too.

Also at BtB, Sky Kalkman thinks the time may be right for the Rays to trade Scott Kazmir, and Peter Bendix continues his series on the history of the NL and AL.

At The Hardball Times, David Gassko follows up on last week's article about whether experience makes any difference to playoff success.

The 30% of sale at the MLB shop has been extended through today. No coupon code necessary.

The Bill James Handbook 2009

2008-11-20T13:00:06Z

Kim: Looks like you got another !@#$ing book in the mail.
Me: The new Bill James Handbook is here! The new Bill James Handbook is here!
Kim: [not quite under her breath] Loser.
Me: ::grinning like a goon::

That conversation may not have actually taken place, but it might as well have. I've nearly filled an entire bookshelf with baseball annuals, including six separate editions of the BJH. In a vast sea of baseball annuals, the BJH distinguishes itself from the pack by -- among other things -- hitting the streets just after the World Series ends. This year's edition was available on November 1st, and I think I may have received my review copy a day or two before then, even. I'm still not sure how they get it finished and shipped so quickly; I think it has something to do with elves.

Last year I tirelessly went through every section of the book and explained the just of the contents. The structure of the book is largely unchanged from last year, so I'm not going to bore you with all of that. I'll try to gear this review more towards Mets-centric nuggets from the book, of which there are plenty.

I mentioned it in an applesauce a couple of weeks ago, but the Fielding Bible awards are back, and Carlos Beltran was honored as the top defensive centerfielder, beating out former Mets Carlos Gomez and Mike Cameron, among others. A panel of ten "experts" voted on the awards, including Bill James, John Dewan, Joe Posnanski and Rob Neyer. David Wright finished tied for fifth at third base (Adrian Beltre won), Jose Reyes finished tenth at shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) and Johan Santana was the sixth highest-ranked pitcher (Kenny Rogers). The voting was somewhat subjective, though I suppose each panelist reached his conclusions using whatever means he considered the most meaningful. The objective counterpart to the awards are Dewan's plus/minus leaders, which would seem to cut into his profits on the forthcoming Fielding Bible 2009. Jose Reyes appears on neither the leaders nor the trailers list, so we may actually have to wait for the FB2009 to know how he actually rated. From the "Kinda Looks Like a Misprint" department, Chase Utley was 47 plays better than average at second base, which is mind-boggling. Also mind-boggling: Pat Burrell was -73 in left field from 2006-2008. Do. Not. Want.

As usual, the BJH devotes near 300 pages to the career registers of every player who was active in 2008. I understand why they include it, and it's theoretically handy to have that kind of information on hand, but in practice I just find it negligibly useful. All of that information -- and much, much more -- is seconds away on the internets. I've got a desktop and a laptop (and an iPhone), so there's rarely a time when it's more convenient to look up a player's statistics in a book instead of hopping online. Maybe I'm on an island here, but I'd prefer they save some trees, cut the career register, and maybe add a few more Bill James articles about the prior season in order to flesh things out a little bit.

The time I save by not looking at the career register I can spend on the 2008 baserunning statistics, which are just fascinating to me. If we can accurately measure runs created on the basepaths, there's no reason they shouldn't be included in a player's total value when we're quantifying his contributions to the team. Offense is X, defense is Y, and baserunning should be Z. The BJH's baserunning stats measure each player's ability at:

Going first-to-third on a single
Going second-to-home on a single
Going first-to-home on a double
Advancing on outs
Not getting doubled off
Not grounding into double-plays

All of those factors are thrown into a mixer which spits out a base runs gained/lost. That number is combined with stolen base gain/lost to arrive at a total baserunning gain/lost, expressed in runs. Carlos Beltran cracked the top ten with +35 base runs, which you can add to the list of things he does extraordinarily well. Jose Reyes was at +32. Derek Jeter was -13. Willy Taveras led all big leaguers with +70 base runs. Dioner Navarro trailed everyone at -39. As a team, the Mets were fourth in the majors with +85 base runs. The World Champion Phillies were first overall with +114 base runs.

The relief pitching section is also neat, as it breaks down saves into different types (easy, regular, tough), and also includes things like stranding inherited runners, pitching on consecutive days, high-leverage situations, long outings blown save/win situations, and some other stuff. A "tough save" is defined as one in which a reliever comes into the game with the tying or go-ahead runs on base. Tough saves were only converted successfully 22% of the time in 2008. The Mets' bullpen served to drag that number down a bit by going 0-for-8 in tough save opportunities.

We've also got a section on manufactured runs. This goes a bit beyond productive outs by determining actual runs that scored as a result of "productive" outs. A manufactured run, per the BJH, is "(a) any run on which two or more of the bases come from something other than playing station-to-station baseball, or (b) a run that scores without a hit, or with only infield hits". They're further separated into deliberately manufactured runs (runs that involve a stolen base, a bunt, or a pinch-runner) and non-deliberate manufactured runs (one that don't include the aforementioned managerial decisions). For whatever it's worth, the Mets manufactured more total runs -- 207 -- than any other National League team, and just shy of the 213 manufactured by the Twins. Yay! Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are the top two manufacturers in the NL, craftily assembling 42 runs and 37 runs, respectively.

The book goes on and on. We've got managerial records, park factors, comprehensive ballpark statistics (Shea Stadium suppressed RHB batting average more than any NL park outside of San Diego), lefty/right splits for batters and pitchers, esoteric stat leaderboards (David Wright had the second-highest NL OPS among players under 25; Mike Pelfrey led the NL in GIDP/9 with 1.30; Oliver Perez was the most extreme flyball pitcher in all of baseball;), career win shares, and the Young Talent Inventory (Wright and Reyes are both among James's top ten players under 27). We also get 2009 projections, which I've already covered in great depth.

If that weren't enough, there's also career targets (formerly known as the Favorite Toy), which evaluates the likelihood of certain players hitting certain milestones. For instance, Jose Reyes has a 31% chance of reaching 3,000 hits and a 5% chance of reaching 4,000 hits. Alex Rodriguez dominates this section, and has a 49% chance of breaking Barry Bonds's career homerun record.

There's really just an astounding amount of information in here, and it's very easy to get lost within it for hours at a time. I urge you to pick up your own copy, and if you do, please buy it directly from ACTA Sports. You can save a few bucks through Amazon, but when you buy direct from the publisher you're supporting the folks that make this and other great baseball books possible.

Wednesday Applesauce

2008-11-19T16:39:20Z

In Arizona:

Jason Vargas allowed one run on four hits in 2.0 innings.
Tobi Stoner allowed three runs on three hits and a walk in 1.2 innings.
Daniel Murphy was still nowhere to be found.

In the Dominican Republic:

Fernando Tatis went 0-for-3 with a walk.

In Puerto Rico:

Nick Evans went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts.
Eddie Camacho struck out one in a perfect inning of relief.
Jesus Feliciano went 2-for-4 with a double, a walk and two runs scored.

At MetsGeek, Mike Newman wonders if Mets prospects are especially overhyped, and, if so, how they come to be overhyped.

At RotoGraphs, Brian Joura talks about David Wright and how high he should go in your typical fantasy draft. The bottom line: If you pick third overall, Wright shouldn't be around by the time you make your first-round selection.

At FanGraphs, Eric Seidman talks about Pedro Martinez and his future in the big leagues. His Marcel projection isn't too hot, though the Bill James projection is very optimistic.

Buried in his most recent chat, Rob Neyer mentions that his ESPN.com blog will be coming out from behind the Insider pay wall. His latest entry should be available to all. The URL still points to Insider, but I was able to read it without being logged into my friend's Insider account, so, yay!

Phillies blog The700Level wades through some of professional sports' biggest locales to find the biggest city rival to Philadelphia. It doesn't take them long to call off the search.

Tuesday Applesauce

2008-11-18T17:00:08Z

In Arizona:

Josh Thole went 0-for-3 with a walk.
Bobby Parnell started and tossed four scoreless innings, striking out three and allowing just a hit and a walk.

In the Dominican Republic:

Fernando Martinez went 3-for-4 with a solo homerun and two runs scored (.394/.438/.652).
Fernando Tatis went 2-for-4.

At MetsGeek, James Kannengieser breaks down the top ten Mets batter seasons.

Despite the fact that our economy is in the crapper and our financial institutions are largely responsible for flushing the toilet, the Mets have assured everyone that their landmark twenty-year, $400 million sponsorship deal with Citigroup is not in jeopardy. When reached for comment, the 53,000 employees whom Citi is laying off said, "Really? Really."

Marty Noble has a new mailbag up, where the questions are actually quite stupider than the answers.

Pedro Martinez will definitely pitch next season, for the Mets or somebody else.

Tom Tango's 2009 Marcel the Monkey projections are available, and FanGraphs already has 'em, both sortable-wise as well as within the individual player pages.

Also at FanGraphs, Eric Seidman looks at Joe Beimel, one of the more interesting names on the free agent relief market.

At Beyond the Boxscore, Peter Bendix has the first part of his series on the history of the National and American Leagues. It's a long read but a good one.

At Baseball Digest Daily, John Brattain compares the tenures of Bud Selig and former commissioner Peter Ueberroth.

The Kobe 9 Cruise of a new independent Japanese professional baseball league has drafted a 16-year-old girl, Eri Yoshida, who throws a sidearm knuckleball.

MLBAM has reached an agreement with Adobe to use Flash for all of MLB.com's embedded and streaming video. They were previously under contract with Microsoft to use Silverlight for video streaming. Uber-nerds can compare Flash and Silverlight.

The Top 50 Mets of All Time: #33 Tommie Agee

2008-11-18T13:00:08Z

In 1967, the Mets went 61-101, clearing the century mark in losses for the fifth time in six seasons (the outlier, 1966, saw them lose only 95 games). Looking to shore up their defense and get a bit younger in the process, on December 15, 1967, the Mets completed a long-discussed trade that sent left-fielder Tommy Davis, pitcher Jack Fisher, and two others to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for utility infielder -- and Long Island native -- Al Weis and young centerfielder Tommie Agee. Agee had won the rookie of the year and finished eighth in MVP voting in 1966, but a tough sophomore campaign enabled the Mets to pry him loose.

Year	Age	PA	XBH	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	EQA	WARP3	VORP
1968	25	391	20	15	.217	.255	.307	.224	1.0	-10.0
1969	26	635	53	59	.271	.342	.464	.293	8.4	27.2
1970	27	696	61	55	.286	.344	.469	.285	8.5	32.1
1971	28	482	33	50	.285	.362	.428	.307	6.5	26.8
1972	29	483	26	53	.227	.317	.374	.263	3.4	3.1

Agee's Met career got off to a suboptimal start. He was nailed in the back of the head by a Bob Gibson fastball in his very first spring training plate appearance, returning six days later, none the worse for wear. Once the regular season finally rolled around, Agee hit just .109/.144/.152 over his first 28 games, spanning 98 plate appearances. He wasn't a whole lot better the rest of the way, hitting .254/.292/.359 in his last 104 games to close the season with a putrid .217/.255/.307 line.

The end result was cringe-worthy, but Agee did pick his game up as the season wore on. He was hitting just .177/.220/.264 after the Mets drubbed the Giants 8-0 at Shea, but over his final 85 plate appearances -- 29 games' worth -- he hit .363/.386/.463, enough of a surge for manager Gil Hodges to all-but-guarantee Agee's place in centerfield for the following season.

Hoping to continue his hot swinging, Agee spent part of the winter with the Mets' instructional league team in St. Petersburg, Florida. It worked. Well, sort of. Agee collected five hits -- two of them homeruns -- and knocked in six runs in the first three games of the 1969 season, but picked up just three hits in his next 28 at-bats as his batting average dropped to .195 and he quickly found himself riding the bench in Hodges's doghouse.

Agee appeared sporadically over the subsequent three weeks, picking up just ten plate appearances over the Mets' next 17 games. Perhaps illustrating the fickle nature of batting average and small sample sizes, Agee raised his average to .265 in those ten times to the plate. He returned to the lineup for good on May 10 against the Astros, and smacked three homeruns in a double-header the next day. He would appear in 131 of the team's final 135 games -- making 129 starts along the way -- and finished with a .271/.342/.464 line, trailing only teammate and fellow Alabamian Cleon Jones for the team lead in OPS among starters.

Thanks in no small part to Agee's terrific season, the Mets shocked the baseball world by capturing the NL East title and stormed into the playoffs to face the Braves in the NLCS. Agee was brilliant against Atlanta, hitting .357/.438/.857 with two homeruns and four RsBI as the Mets swept in three games to move on to the franchise's first World Series appearance. Agee didn't fare quite so well against Baltimore in the Fall Classic, hitting just .167/.250/.333 in the five-game series, but his efforts in the Series' third game made up for any shortcomings otherwise.

With the Series tied at a game apiece and Shea hosting its first World Series game, Agee led off the bottom of the first with a clout to centerfield that put the Mets ahead, 1-0. The rest of his Game 3 heorics came with the glove, with which he made two incredible catches, including this one that robbed Paul Blair of an extra-base hit with the bases loaded and two outs in the top of the seventh. The Mets went on to win that game -- and the next two -- to capture their first World Series title against the heavily-favored Orioles (here is a photo montage the New York Times ran on 8/15/1969).

Fresh off his World Series celebration, Agee finished sixth in the NL MVP voting and was awarded a $40,000 contract for 1970. Continuing a pattern he established in his first two seasons with the Mets, Agee got off to a slow start again, hitting just .227/.310/.333 after the team's first 20 games and his first 84 plate appearances. Also like his first two seasons, Agee just took a little while to get going, as he hit .294/.349/.487 over his final 135 games. He also walloped eleven homeruns in June, setting a club mark for longballs in a month, had a 19-game hitting streak at one point, and won a game in tenth inning on a walk-off steal of home. He also picked up his second Gold Glove award for his play in centerfield. The Mets were tied for first place as late as September 14, but lost eight of their last eleven games to finish at 83-79, in third place in the NL East and six games behind the first-place Pirates.

Agee actually got off to a solid start in 1971, but was derailed by a right knee injury that cost him 20 games in June. He hit .287/.373/.439 for the 62 games that followed his return, but his season was halted again on September 4 when he "had 70 cubic centimeters of blood drained from his right knee" (New York Times, 9/5/1971). He missed fifteen more games recuperating, and the Mets finished the season tied for third, this time fourteen games in back of the Pirates.

Agee was reportedly healthy after an offseason of rest and light exercise, and the Mets signed him for the 1972 season for around $55,000, the same figure he earned in 1971. Agee's performance belied his assertion, as he struggled with the bat for much of the season. He missed a week with a groin strain at the beginning of July, came back for two games, then suffered a strained intercostal and missed the next three weeks. Agee muddled along -- much like the Mets -- for the remainder of the season, and finished with a disappointing .227/.317/.374 line.

Weary of Agee's growing list of injuries, the Mets dealt him to the Astros that offseason for Rich Chiles and Buddy Harris, who went on to do little and nothing for the Mets, respectively. Agee hit a collective .222/.281/.398 with the Astros and Cardinals in 1973, but by that time injuries had sapped almost all of the speed and power from his once-athletic body. He was cut by the Dodgers during spring training of 1974 and that was it for Agee, who, at just 30 years old, was officially out of baseball.

Tommie Agee went on to sell title insurance after his playing career ended, and he died following a heart attack on January 22, 2001 at the age of 58.

Though it took him some time to get rolling, Tommie Agee turned in three excellent seasons for the Mets from 1969 thru 1971. He was terrific in the 1969 NLCS and owned Game 3 of the World Series, his miraculous diving catch in the latter having left an indelible imprint on a generation of Mets fans. The rigors of the game wore him down far too soon, and though his life was cut tragically short, the images and vivid memories of his time spent in Queens live on.

2008 NL Most Valuable Player (BBWAA)

2008-11-17T19:25:57Z

2008 NL Most Valuable Player (BBWAA)

Pujols wins, but by far less than he should have. David Wright comes in seventh with 115 points; Carlos Delgado finishes ninth with 96 points; Johan Santana is 11th with 30 points (including a second-place vote); Carlos Beltran finishes 19th with 10 points; Jose Reyes picks up an eighth-place vote.

At least everyone who received votes was actually eligible for the award.

Johan Santana's Contact Rate

2008-11-17T16:56:18Z

The awesome gets awesomer, as FanGraphs introduces some new stats including pitcher discipline metrics (basically, the same swing/zone/contact stats they already had for hitters but this time for pitchers). Using these new stats, we can see that Johan Santana had his worst season, at least since 2005 (the discipline stats only go back that far), in a lot of these areas.

Year	F-Strike%	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%	Pitches
2005	69.1 %	30.2 %	72.2 %	53.7 %	50.7 %	81.9 %	74.2 %	55.9 %	3335
2006	65.4 %	30.1 %	71.6 %	53.0 %	50.3 %	83.1 %	74.8 %	55.3 %	3450
2007	65.4 %	28.2 %	72.6 %	52.6 %	51.8 %	80.0 %	73.2 %	54.9 %	3345
2008	63.8 %	26.8 %	69.2 %	50.0 %	59.8 %	82.5 %	77.0 %	54.7 %	3598

Santana's first strike % (F-Strike%) was worse than it ever has been. Ditto his swing rate at balls outside the strike zone (O-Swing%). And his swings within the strike zone (Z-Swing%). It follows, then, that his overall swing rate (Swing%), the aggregate of those last two, is also the worst since 2005.

The most dramatic point of information here is Santana's contact rate outside the strike zone (O-Contact%), which increased from 51.8% in 2007 to 59.8% in 2008. This means that Santana got far fewer swing-and-misses in 2008 than he ever had before. His overall contact rate (Contact%) jumped from 73.2% to 77.0%, which would doubtless explain his alarming drop in strikeout rate this past season (9.66 to 7.91).

I don't have enough information right now to know if the increased contact rate is an obvious sign of onset regression, or if it's something that fluctuates to some degree from year to year (as Jake Peavy's has), and that maybe with a little better luck Santana's strikeout rate will more closely resemble his career mark in 2009.

It's something to keep an eye on, for sure.

EDIT: As Larry points out via email, a decrease in Z-Swing% is probably a *good* thing, since contact rate within the strike zone is generally very high.

Monday Applesauce

2008-11-17T17:25:44Z

In the Dominican Republic:

Argenis Reyes went 0-for-4 with a walk.
Fernando Martinez went 1-for-4 with a walk and an RBI.
Fernando Tatis went 2-for-7 with an RBI.

In Puerto Rico:

After picking up his first two hits of the fall on Saturday, Nick Evans went 0-for-2 with a walk on Sunday.
Brahiam Maldonado went 1-for-2.

At MetsGeek, Chris McCown lays out his offseason manifesto.

In Newsday, Ken Davidoff talks about how the Mets are concerned with Francisco Rodriguez's drop in velocity, but maybe aren't so concerned about Bobby Jenks's precipitous drop in strikeouts. I'd be concerned about both, frankly, and if the White Sox are really looking for a "high-level prospect" for Jenks (say, Fernando Martinez), the Mets had better be doing their shopping elsewhere.

The Yankees have sold the rights to Darrell Rasner to a team in Japan, which perhaps gives Rasner a chance to make a better living for himself than he would have as a farmhand with the Yanks. Tyler Kepner has more.

Speaking of the Yankees, are they overbidding for C.C. Sabathia? Possibly. Some Red Sox fans are hoping the Yankees do sign him (scroll down to reason #947, via Ken Davidoff's baseball insider).

The Hardball Times Annual sounds awesome. Go pre-order it from ACTA Sports.

Seven of ESPN's "experts" picked Ryan Howard for NL MVP. One of them picked Manny Ramirez, and another picked C.C. Sabathia. Rob Neyer picked Lance Berkman which, while hardly a bad pick, is just Neyer trying to be different, I think. Bob Klapisch was one of the seven to pick Howard, so he is officially dead to me.

Rich Lederer has the first part of his twelve-part review of the Bill James Handbook. I should have part one of my one-part review up sometime this week.

The Pirates' Nate McLouth won a Gold Glove, but John Dewan's +/- system rated him at -40, the worst of any centerfielder in baseball. How do we reconcile the two? John Dewan himself takes a crack at it (via WHYGAVS?).

Is Francisco Rodriguez a Postseason Stud?

2008-11-15T22:24:12Z

The baseball world officially met Francisco Rodriguez in October 2002 when, thanks to a loophole in MLB's postseason roster rules, Rodriguez was added to the Angels' ledger for their ALDS series against the Yankees. A few weeks later the Angels had won their first World Series title and the legend of K-Rod was born.

Rodriguez is a free agent now and has some kind of reputation as a big game pitcher -- at least, I've read that a few times lately -- but I don't know whether that's really true. It is true that he was almost unhittable in 2002, but he hasn't been especially dominant in five playoff series since then.

Year	IP	H	ER	BB	K	ERA	K/BB
2002	18.2	10	4	5	28	1.98	5.60
Since	13.0	17	7	9	13	4.85	1.44

Neither set of data is a particularly large sample, but there's hardly conclusive evidence that Rodriguez is any sort of big game pitcher, and it might be easier to make an argument to the contrary. I won't suggest that he should be judged by his last thirteen postseason innings, but he certainly shouldn't get any bonus points for being a playoff star since reality doesn't seem to support that particular assertion.

Saturday Applesauce

2008-11-15T19:07:03Z

In Arizona:

Josh Thole went 1-for-4 with a walk and two runs batted in.
Jason Vargas allowed a hit and a walk while striking out two in three innings of relief.
Tobi Stoner allowed a hit and struck out two in two innings.

In Hawaii:

Ruben Tejada went 1-for-5 and was caught stealing.
Roy Merritt struck out two in two innings for his second save of the fall.

In the Dominican Republic:

Fernando Tatis went 2-for-3 with a double, two walks and a run scored.
Argenis Reyes went 0-for-4 with a walk.
Fernando Martinez went 2-for-4 with a double and a run batted in.

In Puerto Rico:

Nick Evans went 0-for-3 with a walk and a run scored. He is 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts overall.

Who was the more valuable player in 2008: Orlando Hudson or Adam Kennedy? Not so fast.

The Yankees have reportedly extended a contract offer to C.C. Sabathia on the order of six years, $140 million, which would trump the contract extension the Mets gave to Johan Santana after acquiring him last winter. Of course, this is only the Yankees' opening offer, so is there any reason to believe that eight years, $200 million is completely out of the question? River Ave. Blues has more.

The Twins have apparently sent the framework for a deal to the agent for Casey Blake, which seems a tad formal for a player whom Keith Law ranked #31 on this offseason's free agent list and whom he said was "not suitable for a starting third-base job unless a club needs a one-year placeholder". Blake will also be playing his age 35 season in 2009, making him even less attractive.

The A's have already traded for Matt Holliday this offseason, but there are rumblings that they are also interested in signing free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal. Athletics Nation supports the plan.

Fascinating article by Michael Lewis at Portfolio.com that should serve as something of an epilogue for Liar's Poker. It's a long read but a good one.

Friday Applesauce

2008-11-14T16:00:06Z

Lee Mazzilli won't be back with SNY this season. I nothing-ed him, so this doesn't really strike me one way or the other. SNY has reportedly reached out to Bobby Ojeda as a possible replacement.

At RotoGraphs, David Golebiewski looks at Jon Niese as a possible back of the rotation guy. RotoGraphs is a fantasy-centric sub-page of FanGraphs, so while the content is somewhat geared towards fantasy league play, most of what I've read so far could very easily double as non-fantasy content.

At Beyond the Boxscore, Peter Bendix breaks down the Nick Swisher-to-the-Yankees deal, and concludes -- as everyone else has -- that the Yankees bought low and likely made out like bandits on this one.

Further reaction on the trade can be found at South Side Sox and Pinstripe Alley.

Keith Law has posted his free agent rankings over at ESPN.com. Baseball Digest Daily has posted their rankings, too.

At Bleed Cubbie Blue, Al Yellon reflects on the end of the Kerry Wood era in Chicago.

AZ Snakepit discusses the likely impending departure of Randy Johnson from Arizona. Rob Neyer thinks he could be a bargain (subscription required).

Off-topic economy-in-turmoil post of the day, Peter Schiff ~~will have~~ has now had his revenge on Wall Street.

And finally, even Donald Fagen has to convince his friends that Steely Dan is teh r0xor.

Hot Stove Conversations: Starting Pitching

2008-11-14T13:00:08Z

The flurry of off-season trading has already begun, and we're just a few days away from free agency, still a theoretical pile of rumors at this point in time, kicking off in a way that will resemble your friendly neighborhood big-box store at 5:30 AM the day after Thanksgiving (hopefully with less violence). There are quite a few departments the Mets may want to do some shopping in, but the place where they're most likely to get into a tug-of-war over some shiny new toy is Aisle 1 - Pitching. Wondering what your favorite Mets fan bloggers think about some of the big names on the market? Just overly interested in reading someone else's IM conversation? Either way, you've come to the right place....

Eric Simon (10:20:27 PM): Well, the Mets have two holes in their rotation. What's your plan?
Jessica Bader (10:21:47 PM): See if Ken Williams is open to being robbed blind by both New York teams (Javier Vazquez) and try to retain Ollie
Eric (10:22:18 PM): Okay, why Ollie over, say, Derek Lowe?
Jessica (10:24:45 PM): Ollie is significantly younger and strikes more batters out. They're both Boras clients seeking expensive multi-year deals, so that issue is a wash.
Eric (10:24:58 PM): Well, not necessarily. Ollie will be looking for more years and more money. So is Ollie a better deal at 5/$70 than Lowe is at 3/$40? Or whatever. Mix-and-match those numbers. Also, Lowe's incredible groundball rate can't be discounted, and he has very good control, too.
Jessica (10:27:00 PM): True, and we don't know how Citi Field will play, although if it's like Shea there won't be a penalty for being a flyball pitcher
Eric (10:27:24 PM): Well, any more of a penalty than just being a flyball pitcher to begin with, though that probably doesn't offset their respective flyball/groundball tendencies. Lowe's also more consistent, for whatever that's worth. Ollie at his best is a better pitcher, but he certainly isn't always at (or near) his best.
Jessica (10:30:09 PM): But generally speaking, isn't the typical BABIP of fly balls less than that of ground balls? The harm comes from fly balls that can leave the yard or become extra-base hits. Pitcher-friendly dimensions + Carlos Beltran in center mitigates some of that harm. (Incidentally, this could make it easier for the Mets to keep Ollie, as teams with less favorable conditions for a flyball pitcher wouldn't get as much out of him and therefore probably wouldn't want to offer him as much money.)
Eric (10:31:16 PM): They do, for sure. Flyball pitchers are a bigger problem if you play in a hitters park and/or your outfield defense is atrocious. Alright, if we submit that the flyball question isn't a concern, do Perez's higher strikeout rates make up for his massive control disadvantage to Lowe? All told, Lowe's strikeout-to-walk ratio was far better than Perez's.
Jessica (10:37:10 PM): Good point
Eric (10:37:29 PM): Then again, Perez is nine years younger. Though Perez is also extremely volatile. These guys are about as different as you can get, eh?
Jessica (10:39:10 PM): Yeah, about the only thing they have in common is that they're both going to get big money. It's almost like the debate isn't about those two specific pitchers but two different philosophies of building a rotation
Eric (10:45:15 PM): Though it's far from the entire story, there is something to be said for consistency. When Ollie is dominant he's as good as anyone -- anyone -- in the league. Then again, other times he goes out there and can't escape the second inning.
Jessica (10:50:15 PM): I don't think the consistency vs. volatility argment is as cut-and-dried as it might appear based on the reputations of the two pitchers. I went through the 2008 gamelogs for Lowe and Perez in order to whip up some game score histograms:

Lowe's mean game score is higher (55.09 to 51.68), but Ollie actually has the smaller standard deviation (17.08 to 17.83), and they each had seven outings with a game score of 35 or lower.

So, Eric and I have had our say, but there's still room for a lot more discussion/persuasion. There are compelling cases for and against each of these pitchers, and the debate is sure to rage on long past the inking of deals. Let's hear your take.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Oliver Perez	10-7	34	34	0	0	0	0	194.0	167	100	91	24	105	180	4.22	1.40

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Derek Lowe	14-11	34	34	1	0	0	0	211.0	194	84	76	14	45	147	3.24	1.13

Poll

Which of these starting pitchers should the Mets sign?

City Council OKs Willets Point Redevelopment (Iron Triangle Tracker)

2008-11-14T05:08:43Z

City Council OKs Willets Point Redevelopment (Iron Triangle Tracker)

The City Council has approved the plan to redevelop ~~that incomprehensible wasteland~~ Willets Point by a vote of 42-2. The plan will take upwards of ten years to complete, and the city has been actively trying to buy up the remaining privately-owned parcels of land. Many landowners have graciously accepted the city's offers of relocation, though a number have resisted to this point. The council's approval gives the city far more leverage in their negotiations, knowing they can always pull the eminent domain card, hopefully only as a last resort.

This is a big win for the city and the Mets, as well as for fans who will eventually have a place to hang out before and after games instead of driving the unpaved roads that could otherwise pass as those of an undeveloped country if we weren't so sure that the area is actually part of Queens.

Name That Mets Autograph

2008-11-13T21:11:43Z

I saw someone else run this on another blog and I thought it was a great idea. Apologies to whomever that was; if I knew (or if someone would remind me), I'd gladly give credit where it was due.

The only prize at stake here is a place in my heart, which my wife will tell you is at least marginally more valuable than a book or a DVD.

To which former Met does the following autograph belong:

The Mets and the Closer Market

2008-11-13T18:08:49Z

On the whole, the closer market seems to be echoing its Wall Street counterparts, as the prospective cost of high-end commodities has been dropping by the day. Francisco Rodriguez may have scared off potential suitors when it was leaked that he'd be looking for a five-year deal this winter, which was instantly affixed to a $15 million annual salary, and everyone and his brother soon realized that a five-year, $75 million deal for a relief pitcher was not the sort of prudent investment general managers were looking to make.

Rodriguez set the major league saves record last season, and even if that mark overvalues him to some extent, he is still a very, very good pitcher. The Mets gave Billy Wagner something like four years, $40 million when they signed him over the 2005-2006 offseason, so it's not out of the question that they could get Rodriguez down to that neighborhood. He's only 26, so even a three- or four-year deal now would make him a free agent again before his 30th birthday.

A new name on the scene is Bobby Jenks, whom the Mets are reportedly interested in. Jenks is a bit of a husky fellow, but his numbers have generally been very good save for 2006 when he ran into some control problems. He hasn't been much of a strikeout pitcher these past couple of seasons, but his walk rates are very low and his strikeout rates are downright minuscule considering that he plays his home games in the second best homerun park in all of baseball (if you correctly guessed that Camden Yards was the homer-happiest park in the bigs last season, you just earned yourself a cookie). The White Sox have been scouting Eddie Kunz and Bobby Parnell in Arizona, though even their scouts said that Kunz has looked a little "ruff" (ed. note: this comment might have been taken out of context, mis-spelled for comic effect, or just invented out of whole cloth). Perhaps a package deal for Jenks and Javier Vazquez could be in the offing (Jermaine Dye is also rumored to be available, with the Sox trying to push him as well).

The Rockies may look to move Huston Street, but he has to be the Mets' fourth or fifth best option at this point. Given his homerun rate and precipitous slide into mediocrity over the past couple of seasons, the Mets should have tepid interest in him, at best.

The Brian Fuentes hot stove is barely at a simmer, though I still think he might be the most attractive name out there. He's a little bit older than Rodriguez and Jenks, but he has been dominant in the not-so-friendly confines of Coors Field and should come with a lower price tag than Rodriguez in both years and annual salary.

We've also got Trevor Hoffman, who has more saves than anyone in history (whatever that's worth), and has recently been shown the door in San Diego. Given his age, Hoffman would only be looking for a one-year deal at reasonable money, so if the Mets don't like how the math works out on some of the other guys out there, Hoffman would be more than adequate in the short-term.

Whatever happens, the Mets are in a position to not have to overpay for their guy, whomever that turns out to be. It's a buyer's market for closers this year, and conditions are such that the Mets can set the bar wherever they want.

Wednesday Applesauce

2008-11-12T15:36:46Z

In Arizona:

Josh Thole went 2-for-4 with an RBI (.382/.441/.509).
Eddie Kunz, still ruff, blew a save and picked up a loss, allowing a homerun and two walks in an inning of work.

In Hawaii:

Ruben Tejada went 0-for-3 with two walks and two runs scored.
Jordan Abruzzo went 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts.
Josh Stinson allowed a run on two hits -- one of them a solo homerun -- in an inning of relief.
Roy Merritt struck out two and walked one in two innings of work.

In the Dominican Republic:

Fernando Martinez went 3-for-5 with an RBI and a run scored.
Argenis Reyes went 3-for-5 with an RBI and two runs scored.
Fernando Tatis went 1-for-4 with a strikeout.

In Puerto Rico:

Nick Evans went 0-for-2 with two walks and a run scored.
Michael Antonini allowed four runs on six hits and two walks in four innings.

In Venezuela:

Michel Abreu went 1-for-3 with a walk, an RBI and a run scored.

At MetsGeek, Chris McCown looks at some available options for jettisoning Luis Castillo to parts unknown.

At RotoGraphs, Brian Joura looks at Daniel Murphy's value in upcoming fantasy drafts. Obviously, his value skyrockets if he becomes a starter at second base instead of a platoon partner in left field.

ESPN.com has been posting winter forecasts for each big league team, and Bob Klapisch penned the Mets preview. Nothing terribly new or exciting here. Blah blah closer yada yada big spenders. It'll kill a few minutes of your Wednesday if nothing else.

At The Hardball Times, David Gassko looks into whether experience really does matter in the playoffs. There isn't a ton of data to work with (105 seven-game series since WW2 were considered), but the results might surprise you. And by you I mean me.

The Tao of Stieb, a Blue Jays blog, runs down five reasons not to sign Ryan Dempster.

River Avenue Blues ruminates on Bobby Abreu and whether he makes any sense for the 2009 Yankees and/or beyond.

Wow. Phillies fans. Just, wow.

Tuesday Applesauce

2008-11-11T16:00:07Z

In Arizona:

Daniel Murphy went 1-for-5 with a double, a run scored and an RBI. He also made a fielding error at second.
Tobi Stoner allowed a run on two hits in two innings of relief.
Jason Vargas got ruff'd up for five runs on four hits in two innings.

In the Dominican Republic:

Argenis Reyes went 2-for-5 with a double, an RBI and a run scored.
Fernando Tatis went 2-for-4 with a double.

At MetsGeek, James Kannengieser takes a look at the plate discipline of the 2008 Mets.

At Beyond the Boxscore, R.J. Anderson has a nice piece on Pedro Martinez, looking at the dominance of his past and the uncertainty of his future.

Also at BtB, Sky Kalkman has completed his positional valuation for 2008 and has distilled it down to the top fifty players at any position. The Mets land two players in the top ten and three in the top twenty.

Nice profile of Nate Silver in the New York Times for his work at FiveThirtyEight.com.

Athletics Nation reacts to the Matt Holliday deal. Purple Row does likewise.

FishStripes reacts to the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham trade. Fire Jim Bowden does likewise.

Trevor Hoffman is looking less and less likely to return to San Diego next season. I'll say it again: If the Mets are reluctant to hand out a multi-year deal to any of the closers on the free agent market or to pony up the necessary players to trade for one, they could do far worse than signing Hoffman to a one-year deal.

This Time Let's Not Eat The Gloves

2008-11-11T13:00:08Z

When Moneyball was published back in 2004, a lot of folks read it and the proverbial light bulb went off. Billy Beane's emphasis on players who did an exemplary job of getting on base seemed so obvious to anyone who had read Bill James's work in the past, but thanks to Beane and Michael Lewis (whose Liar's Poker is even better than Moneyball) there were a million new converts overnight. Beane's salient point was not that on-base percentage was king (even though it is). The most important thing to take away from Moneyball, at least insofar as it would benefit a team without limitless resources, is the constant search for weaknesses in the market.

What Beane found at the time was that a player's ability to reach base with considerable frequency was undervalued, particularly relative to one's ability to hit homeruns. While other general managers were spending top dollar (and high draft picks) for players with pop, Beane narrowed his focus to players with high on-base percentages, who were comparatively inexpensive -- a key for Beane and Oakland's conservative payroll figures -- compared to their homerun-hitting brethren. Even though Beane's shit didn't work in the playoffs, he kept building teams that made their way into the postseason, doing so on the baseball equivalent of a shoestring budget.

With more and more people coming around to the value of walks and getting on base in general, the value of this skill on the open market has started to plateau. I don't think it's overvalued, at least not to the extent that immeasurable traits like grit, hustle and teammate-y-ness are, but I think folks acknowledge the usefuless of these players more so than they did a few years ago. The key, then, is finding new market inefficiencies and the next big undervalued skill (or, perhaps, several smaller-but-still-undervalued skills).

One of those skills might be defense. Defense has always been sought-after, but with newer and better ways of evaluating defensive performance cropping up all the time, a team that can properly articulate the value of one player's defense relative to another's has a distinct advantage. We now know that the players that look the best in the field and who make the fewest errors (and/or have the strongest arms) aren't necessarily the most valuable defensive players. Fielding percentage no longer tells us what we need to know; range-based analysis is where it's at, because more batted balls turned into outs is the most important thing a defender can contribute to the ultimate goal of winning baseball games.

Whatever your opinion of defensive metrics in general, discarding them all out of hand because of their flaws -- perceived or otherwise -- is probably a little short-sighted. Two systems coming to divergent conclusions about a particular fielder in itself shouldn't be grounds for ignoring one or the other or both. On-base percentage and slugging percentage differ wildly about the value of Ryan Braun in 2008, but that doesn't mean we're going to punt them both into the ether. The more data we have the clearer a picture we can draw (of course there is such a thing as bad data, but if you trust the source of play-by-play data then the conclusions of different systems can reasonably be considered in aggregate in an effort to reach a stronger overall conclusion).

Just like offensive value can be expressed via runs created (or some variant thereof), defensive value can be expressed via runs saved, and for all intents and purposes, a run created is as valuable as a run saved. It follows logically that a player who creates 50 runs with his bat (relative to replacement, say) and zero runs with his glove is approximately as valuable as a player who creates 70 runs with his bat and costs his team 20 runs in the field. As a means of player comparison and, perhaps more importantly, player evaluation with respect to acquisitions, you have to consider defensive value in the overall picture. Raul Ibanez might put up decent offensive numbers, but if he costs your team two wins with the glove (not to mention a high draft pick) then you really have to wonder if he's worth the trouble (ed. note: he isn't).