Amazin' Avenue: FanPosts

Jose Valentin

2009-11-21T00:42:40Z

So everyone knows how we invited Jose Valentin to Spring Training last year and he just wasn't that good as a player anymore. He played in the minors for a little bit I think, but he is pretty much done playing now at age 40. Everyone was talking about bringing him back as a coach later on. Do you think later on is now? Everyone talks about all these players who have grission but aren't good players. They would all make good coaches. But didn't he say before that he wanted to coach and he wanted to come back to the Mets? I would love to have Jose Valentin (and his mustache) back.

Castillo for Snyder?

2009-11-21T00:19:19Z

So the Mets have been trying very hard to move Luis Castillo and the DBacks have been trying to move Chris Snyder. A bad contract for a bad contract. However, everything has been complicated by a third team and Milton Bradley. First it is Lyle Overbay. Then it is Kevin Millwood, whats next?

The Mets obviously need a catcher. They want power. I've heard the Diamondbacks want a second baseman with speed and who is a veteran to lead their young infield, someone who can also get on base. Castillo fits that mold.

So I say ditch the third team and do Castillo for Snyder straight up. What do you guys think?

Poll

Is Castillo for Snyder straight up a fair trade?

AAOP - It's Late, But Still Good

2009-11-20T19:45:37Z

My Mets fix is as follows, in no particular order:

LineUp Changes

1) Trade David Wright (and some cash) for Adrian Gonzalez. Nice knowing you David Wright, but the walls at Citi field do not accommodate your power range. Both players’ stat lines are about equal over a career, and Gonzalez would still have power to knock them out of Citi.

2) Sign Chone Figgins and place him in left field (and away from the Phillies). He doesn't have the power we need, but the speed and slap shot style of hitting would lead to many doubles / triples at Citi, and replace the steals we lose in the Wright trade. Plus, with him and Reyes at the top of the order, it'd be fun to watch.

3) Work a three way trade with the Cubs and Marlins. Cubs get Luis Castillo (whom Hendry loves), Mets get Dan Uggla (lots of production for a 2nd baseman), and Marlins get low / mid-grade prospects from both teams to rebuild their roster for the new stadium in 2012.

4) Trade for Ryan Doumit of the Pirates if he's available. Depending on the lower level prospects we send in return, this guy could be a steal as he's coming off of a down year.

5) Sign Carlos Delgado back in an incentive laden deal to play first base. He's worth the risk if he is fully recovered, and is much more enticing than watching Daniel Murphy play at first.

New LineUp

1. Figgins
2. Reyes
3. Gonzalez
4. Beltran
5. Delgado
6. Uggla
7. Francoeur
8. Doumit

Pitching Changes

1) Trade Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis, Nick Evans, John Maine, and whomever else for Roy Halladay. The guy is an absolute stud and has proven himself time and again. He's an innings eater and a Yankees killer. A one-two punch of Santana and Halladay would destroy the National League. (Reminds me of that Randy Johnson / Curt Schilling duo).

2) Sign Andy Pettitte (at a reasonable price) to a one year deal and away from the Yankees. He's a big game pitcher and can definitely handle the pressures of New York.

3) Sign Jason Marquis to a bargain deal. The guy wants to be a Met, and he has a decent stat line throughout his career. Plus, he may give us a home team discount if he wants to be here that bad.

4) Sign Joe Beimel as a lefty specialist to setup for Rodriguez. He's not overpowering but consistently shuts down the opposition.

5) Sign JJ Putz back in an incentive laden deal. He has something to prove and I love his stuff when he's healthy.

6) Bring back Rick Peterson as special pitching advisor to Oliver Perez. Ollie was lights out for stretches with Peterson guiding his progress. It's worth a shot if we want to get any production out of Ollie.

New Pitching Staff

1. Santana
2. Halladay
3. Pettitte
4. Pelfrey
5. Marquis
6. Perez
7. Niese

I know we'd be stripping the farm system, but we'd be getting some absolute talent back. We'd be taking a lot of payroll on with Halladay & Figgins, but Pettitte, Delgado, Wright's bloated contract, and a few others would be clearing the books before the excalator clauses kicked in. Enjoy, any thoughts?

- Jim

AAOP: A new outlook...

2009-11-18T19:41:59Z

I took about 2 hours typing this up on Sunday night after looking at AA for the past two months but never creating an account. I created it on Sunday night but I couldn’t post this until after the AAOP deadline. I know I’m not eligible for the contest, but I took the time to type it so I might as well post it. Enjoy – feel free to comment.

My 2010 New York Mets AAOP

INTERNAL MOVES

1: Get off of the idea and just accept the fact that Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo will be on the 2010 New York Mets.

EXPLANATION: Perez is owed $24 million over the next 2 seasons. He is one of several bad free agent pitching signings from a myriad of teams in the past few years. Just accept the fact that he will be throwing for the New York Mets next season, for better or worse. Put him as a #5 starter, hope that you get glimpses of the ‘’good Ollie’’ every few weeks, and just keep cursing Omar Minaya for giving him this contract until he is no longer the general manager of the New York Mets. That, or just secretly hope that he gets hurt or pitches a gem against the Phillies every now and then?

As for Castillo, I know everyone is ready to toss him aside and get Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez. Besides the fact that Placido Polanco is the only second baseman I’d really like here (Hudson lost his job in LA and Lopez is about as hot-and-cold as they come), no one is going to take Castillo unless we take back a bad contract. I can’t rationalize having a hothead like Milton Bradley or Jose Guillen getting returned for Castillo for the sake of trying to sign Orlando Hudson for the same price we had Castillo signed for. That would be doubling up on a bad investment, as Orlando Hudson is no sure thing either. Castillo is a sunken cost – so the best thing we could do is accept his barely average defense and hope that he gets a .400 on-base percentage next year out of the #2 hole.

2: Start John Maine in the bullpen next season as an option-in-waiting.

EXPLANATION: I really like John Maine, and I wish he would stop walking people and get healthy. If late-year starts are any indication, we could hope that he builds upon his last start of the year and gets back to that point where he is a reliable Major League starter. I would tender Maine a contract but start him out in long-relief to stretch him out, and then allow him to start again when injuries or inefficiencies arise. It is better to keep him around as an option than to plug him in as a rotation cog for next season (as they did last year).

3: Send Josh Thole down to AAA to start next season.

EXPLANATION: … with intentions of having him come up as soon as the Mets realize that Omir Santos really sucks. He wasn’t quite ready to be a major leaguer yet, but it is good that he got that taste of the majors. Now go back down to Buffalo, learn your position better, and be prepared for a phone call.

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

1: Sign OF Matt Holliday to a 6-year, $120 million contract.

EXPLANATION: I don’t feel that Holliday deserves the money that Mark Teixeira made, but I also feel that a 6-year commitment at $20/million year is more than enough. My reasoning extends beyond the need for power in left field. Not only does the culture of the current team need to be changed, but this would make the big splash that would make the Mets and their fans forget about the past couple of years. In thinking about the future, Holliday, Johan Santana and David Wright would make up the (likely) future of the New York Mets, with Carlos Beltran’s knees past the next two seasons being an issue, and Jose Reyes’ growth hinging on whether he gets extended in the future. Even if Beltran and Reyes don’t return in the future, the Mets still have a plan with Holliday signed through his age-35 season.

2: Sign LHP Randy Wolf to a 3-year, $30 million contract.

EXPLANATION: I am somewhat biased, as I’ve been a fan of Randy Wolf for years. The injuries that bothered him in Philadelphia are long gone, as his past two seasons have been healthy ones. He has always been a decent strikeout pitcher, has very good breaking stuff, and would make an excellent #3 starter on this team. He had a great season in 2009 and stepped up as a leader of the staff when Los Angeles needed him most. There is the argument of the NL West being a contributing factor to his success, but he was very good at the end of 2008 in Houston as well. I can’t justify spending all that money on John Lackey when a bunch of teams will be in for his services. And in not undervaluing the impact of fan loyalty, the Wolf Pack would make its way to Citi Field – tell me you wouldn’t want to see that happen!!!

3: Sign 1B/OF Aubrey Huff to a 2-year, $6 million contract.

EXPLANATION: Firstly, I would not even touch bringing Carlos Delgado back. After an injury-pledged 2009 season, I can’t bring Delgado back with an open mind considering that he was such a big part of the core in the past. I think the culture of the team needs to be changed, and that starts with Delgado going elsewhere.

Now onto Huff: I know that the Mets have another left-handed first baseman in Daniel Murphy, and I also know that Huff was absolutely miserable in Detroit. However, he was a Silver Slugger in ’08 with Baltimore and had a decent season in ’09 with them as well. Bill James has him projected at .267/20/66 in this upcoming season, which I wouldn’t expect to be much better if Delgado were around. Huff is not a terrible defensive first baseman and could also spell Jeff Francoeur in right field as a left-handed platoon partner if Francoeur struggles in a full-time role (even though his outfield defense stinks). At the very worst, Huff would be a solid bench bat. At the most, he would be a solid power-hitting first baseman at a reduced rate.

I’m guessing this would be a reasonable contract, as his performance (or lack thereof) in Detroit might linger in the minds of GMs.

4: Sign C Gregg Zaun to a 1-year, $2 million contract.

EXPLANATION: It’s simple: Zaun is a switch-hitting catcher and would be a temporary solution to a long-standing problem since Paul Lo Duca left the team. Bengie Molina was hobbling around the field late last year and his OBP was WORSE than his batting average for about 3 months of the season last year. Zaun is a veteran, knows how to get on base and take pitches, and is a perfect stopgap until something better arises. Plus, we could plug Josh Thole in if Santos is ineffective without sacrificing the platoon.

5: Sign RHP Justin Speier to a minor league contract.

EXPLANATION: He has been pretty miserable in the past two years, but the guy has been successful in years past. He was a main cog in that bullpen with Scot Shields and Francisco Rodriguez for all of those Angels playoff runs. Definitely worth a look…

6: Sign RHP Juan Rincon to a minor league contract.

EXPLANATION: Same concept: throw it against the wall, see what sticks…

7: Sign RHP Eric Gagne to a minor league contract.

EXPLANATION: I know the controversy behind this one: Gagne is a former steroid user and he will likely be blackballed by teams in his attempt to return to the Majors. But then again, wouldn’t you want to be the team that struck gold with a solid 8th inning pitcher for nothing, just because you gave a former CY YOUNG winner an invite to spring training? This move really can’t hurt, regardless of how crappy Gagne was in Milwaukee two years ago. Everyone knows that, if Gagne were to kill major league pitching next year at minimum salary, you guys will be on this website screaming your head off that we didn’t take the opportunity to sign him.

8: Give three journeymen left-handed relievers an invitation to spring training.

EXPLANATION: Jack Taschner, Patrick Misch, Ron Villone – come on down!! Pedro Feliciano’s arm is about to fall off, for Christ’s sake!!!

The thinking here is that, K-Rod, Green, and Feliciano are main members of this bullpen. The other members make no difference – just fill out spots. Hell, bring Scott Schoeneweis back if need be (JUST KIDDING!!!)

9: Sign RHP Nelson Figueroa to a minor league contract.

EXPLANATION: Figgy has kind of acquired a cult following here. I like him, he’s a local boy, and he would just provide depth either in the case of injury or for AAA Buffalo’s rotation.

10: Sign IF Mark Loretta to a 1-year, $2 million contract.

EXPLANATION: Loretta is one of the most underrated players of our time. I was hoping the Mets would sign him last year, and they blessed us with Alex Cora. Anyway, Loretta plays all around the infield, is a solid veteran leader, and has never been an easy out. Sounds good for our bench!

11: Sign IF Ruben Gotay to a minor league contract.

EXPLANATION: Welcome back, Rube!

TRADES

1: Trade Reese Havens, Brant Rustich, and Eddie Kunz to the Cincinnati Reds for Aaron Harang and $2.5 million cash.

EXPLANATION: I can’t see the Mets spending all that money on John Lackey, nor do I want to see another free agent starter be on the books for the next 5 years at more than $10 million a year with Santana on the team. I’ll also apply that logic to the situation with Roy Halladay. I know a quick fix is reasonable now, but I don’t want to pay Roy Halladay $21 million in 2015 after I gutted my farm system to get him. The Mets already made that type of trade for Johan Santana – now imagine a new GM that isn’t anxious to get rid of him (thanks again, Bill Smith!!) and then imagine the package going to Toronto for Halladay. Not worth it to me…

Now regardless of what you think of Harang, the guy was an absolute force until DUSTY BAKER became the manager of the Cincinnati Reds in 2008. Regardless of whether this was the reason for his ineffectiveness, Harang is owed $10 million next season (with the $2.5 million being applied), and has a mutual option for 2011. If Harang is effective, that could allow us to pick up the option at $13-$14 million. If he fails, it was a decent high-reward risk that allows us to reject the option and take the $2.5 million hit, but dive into the free agent market for a starter in a packed free agent class next offseason. It is not a long-term investment that could really hurt us in the future – unlike a Halladay acquisition or something along those lines.

From the Reds standpoint, they are freeing up $10 million on next year’s payroll, $2 million on next year’s payroll, and they’re getting a solid infield prospect in Havens along with some possible help on the pitching staff in Rustich and Kunz.

ARBITRATION SIGNINGS

1: Sign OF Jeff Francoeur to a 1 year, $4 million contract.

EXPLANATION: Francoeur bought him a year in New York after he played out the string with his finger in a sling. Francoeur bought my respect with that move. He no longer has that pressure put upon him that existed in Atlanta, and I think he wants to be here. That, and I feel that David Wright will have a very positive effect on him.

2: Sign SP John Maine to a 1-year, $3 million contract.

3: Sign LHP Pedro Feliciano to a 1-year, $2.5 million contract.

4: Sign RHP Sean Green to a 1-year, $750,000 contract.

5: Sign OF Angel Pagan to a 1-year, $600,000 contract.

NON-TENDERS: Cory Sullivan, Jeremy Reed.

EXPLANATION: Pretty self-explanatory.

LINEUP

1: SS Jose Reyes (S)

2: 2B Luis Castillo (S)

3: CF Carlos Beltran (S)

4: LF Matt Holliday (R)

5: 3B David Wright (R)

6: RF Jeff Francoeur (R)

7: 1B Aubrey Huff (L)

8: C Gregg Zaun (S)

9: PITCHER

BENCH

OF: Angel Pagan (S)

IF/OF: Daniel Murphy (L)

IF: Mark Loretta (R)

C: Omir Santos (R)

IF/OF: Nick Evans (R)

OTHER POSSIBILITIES: Anderson Hernandez, Fernando Martinez, Chris Carter, any possible spring training invitees.

EXPLANATION: The top three of the order remains the same. Reyes, if healthy, would benefit greatly from a healthy Castillo given his plate discipline. The 4-6 spots in the lineup would be extremely right-handed, but I would bat Francoeur behind Wright to perhaps get him some solid RBI opportunities for a month or two to get him off to a good start. The bottom half of the order also has some pop with Francoeur and Huff.

The bench has a great middle infielder in Loretta, a good 4th outfielder in Angel Pagan, a right-handed bat with some opportunities in Nick Evans (perhaps at first in a platoon). As for Daniel Murphy, I’d get him accustomed to playing anywhere needed. He will share at-bats with Huff and Evans at first as well. I feel that first base won’t be such an eyesore with the team finally getting some pop from a corner outfield position.

ROTATION

1: LHP Johan Santana

2: RHP Aaron Harang

3: LHP Randy Wolf

4: RHP Mike Pelfrey

5: LHP Oliver Perez

DEPTH: LHP Jon Niese, RHP John Maine, RHP Dillon Gee, RHP Nelson Figueroa, RHP Fernando Nieve

EXPLANATION: Harang, if healthy, would make a fantastic #2 starter behind Santana. Even if Johan were to go down with an injury (God forbid!), Harang has been the Ace of the Reds for five years. I don’t think he’d miss a beat if he was healthy. As for Wolf and Pelfrey, they make a great #3-#4 combo. And as for Oliver Perez, he would either be effective or replaced by a rejuvenated Maine or an up-and-coming Niese in this scenario.

Also, aside from Harang, this is a fairly healthy starting rotation. I would not want Justin Duchscherer, Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, or Rich Harden going anywhere near this rotation. Those four guys are walking time bombs, especially those with emotional problems like Bedard and Duchscherer. This is New York, not a city in the Midwest.

BULLPEN

RHP Francisco Rodriguez

RHP Sean Green

LHP Pedro Feliciano

RHP Bobby Parnell

RHP Brian Stokes

RHP John Maine

RHP (Justin Speier, Eric Gagne, Juan Rincon, etc.)/LHP (Jack Taschner, Patrick Misch, Jamie Walker)

EXPLANATION: By the way, that seven man bullpen is contingent upon Maine moving out of the bullpen in due time, plus at least one of those guys sticking.

Bullpens are like going out on dates with several women. You go out with enough, sooner or later something is bound to stick and one of them will be acceptable. If not, you keep trying until you find one. There are so many relievers, and so many non-tender candidates in this upcoming offseason, that I wouldn’t spend a dime on relievers. That especially applies when you have a $12 million closer. The Mets should just invite a bunch of guys with past success to spring training and see what happens.

2010 AND 2011 PAYROLL COMMITMENTS

HITTERS

Jose Reyes

2010: $9 million; 2011: $11 million option

Luis Castillo

2010: $6 million; 2011: $6 million

Carlos Beltran

2010: $18.5 million; 2011: $18.5 million

Matt Holliday

2010: $20 million; 2011: $20 million

David Wright

2010: $10 million; 2011: $14 million

Jeff Francoeur

2010: $4 million; 2011: ARB

Aubrey Huff

2010: $3 million; 2011: $3 million

Gregg Zaun

2010: $2 million; 2011: F/A

Angel Pagan

2010: $600,000; 2011: ARB

Daniel Murphy

2010: $400,000; 2011: $400,000

Mark Loretta

2010: $2 million; 2011: F/A

Omir Santos

2010: $400,000; 2011: $400,000

Nick Evans

2010: $400,000; 2011: $400,000

2010 Lineup Commitments: $76.3 million

2011 Lineup Commitments: $72.7 million (w/ Reyes’ option picked up)

PITCHERS

Johan Santana

2010: $21 million; 2011: $22.5 million

Aaron Harang

2010: $10 million; 2011: $14 million ($2.5 million buyout)

Randy Wolf

2010: $10 million; 2011: $10 million

Mike Pelfrey

2010: $400,000; 2011: ARB?

Oliver Perez

2010: $12 million; 2011: $12 million

Francisco Rodriguez

2010: $11.5 million; 2011: $11.5 million

John Maine

2010: $3 million; 2011: ARB

Sean Green

2010: $750,000; 2011: ARB

Pedro Feliciano

2010: $2.5 million; 2011: F/A

Bobby Parnell

2010: $400,000; 2011: $400,000

Brian Stokes

2010: $400,000; 2011: ARB?

Justin Speier/Eric Gagne/Juan Rincon/Ron Villone/Jamie Walker/Pat Misch/etc.

2010: $400,000; 2011: F/A

(I will put those players up as one, with the possibility of more than one of them making the roster, obviously).

2010 Pitching Commitments: $72.35 million

2011 Pitching Commitments: $70.4 million ($58.9 million without Harang’s option)

2010 Total Payroll: $148.65 million

2011 Total Payroll: $143.1 million ($132.6 million without Harang)

EXPLANATION: $149 million is a few million more than where the Mets were last season, with new expectations with Matt Holliday around. The 2010 offseason sets up a little restrictively for this team payroll-wise, but the entire core of the team would be intact with Reyes, Wright, Holliday, and Beltran in the lineup and the rotation still intact with Wolf and Santana and Harang’s option being picked up, or else a few million to play with since losing Harang would save us $11.5 million.

The 2011 offseason would also become extremely exciting and telling for the Mets. Perez, Castillo, Beltran, and Reyes would be coming off the books, and the team would have a bunch of decisions to make at that point. That, and since we will have most of our prospects still around at that point, hopefully guys like Holt, Davis, and Martinez will begin taking the place of the big-money contracts.

Thank you for reading, AA!!

AAOP: Just get Pujols

2009-11-18T02:07:34Z

Just get Pujols. And Utley, Mauer, Crawford, Holliday, Halladay, and Lincecum. And Cliff Lee.

Just get them, and then we can win the World Series!

AAOP: Supplementing the Core

2009-11-18T01:57:24Z

(Note: I realize I'm way too late for the AAOP contest. I'm just posting this entry to throw out ideas and generate debate,. Your comments are welcome, of course)

My offseason plan is as follows:

(1) Trade prospects for Curtis Granderson. As Sam Page has pointed out, Granderson brings one of the best packages of power, speed, defense, & walks in baseball, is only 28, and comes at a great bargain. By adding Granderson as their power bat instead of breaking the bank on a Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Mets retain the payroll flexibility to supplement their core with high-value role players, the absence of which has hurt the Mets significantly the last 3 years.

Trading for Granderson would boost the Mets payroll by $5.5 million in 2010.

(2) Sign Placido Polanco. Polanco is perhaps the best-fielding second baseman in the major leagues. Admittedly, Polanco is somewhat light with the bat: his wOBA has declined from .371 to .339 to .321 since 2007. However, Polanco's awesome glove more more than makes up for it; according to Fangraphs, Polanco's value in 2009 to the Tigers was $14.1 million. I'm estimating Polanco would command something like a 2-year deal at a total value of $13 to $16 million, so let's figure an addition to the 2010 payroll of $7.25 million.

(3) Sign Ben Sheets. Sheets is coming off elbow surgery, but his agent insists he'll be 100% healthy by spring training. Of course, Sheets has a history of losing time due to injuries: from 2005 to 2008, he averaged only 150 innings, and made over 30 starts in only one of those seasons. That being said, when he's healthy, Sheets is one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball. 100-to-150 innings of Sheets would still provide significant value to the Mets. The most attractive thing about getting Sheets is that he probably could be signed for a low base salary with lots of incentives. I'm estimating a base salary of $4 million.

(4) Sign Jon Garland. Garland is kind of a "meh" pitcher,; he doesn't strike out a lot of batters (career K/9 of 4.72), and for that reason, doesn't particularly enthuse many fans. But whatever Garland's limits, he's been durable & consistent. He's made more than 30 starts each of the last 8 season, and has posted FIP's between 4.24 and 4.76 since 2005. He's the perfect complement to the high-risk/high-reward Sheets. I estimate it would take between $7 and $9 million to sign Garland.

(5) Sign Gregg Zaun as Catcher. Zaun brings good plate discipline and decent pop for a catcher, and according to Driveline Mechanics, was an average defender. I figure we can get him for around $2 million (the price at which the Rays refused to extend his option).

(6) Keep Daniel Murphy as the 1st baseman, but bring in a right-handed bat to platoon with him. My choice would be Ryan Garko, who the Giants are likely to non-tender. Garko has mashed lefties to the tune of .313 /.392/.495 in his career, and should be available at a cheap price (around $1 million). Plus, if Murphy falters in 2010, Garko is capable enough to take over the starting job.

(6) Go with Angel Pagan as the starting rightfielder. Personally, I'm skeptical that Pagan's 2009 was a fluke (we're talking about a guy with a career minor league OPS of .715). I'd prefer to sign an established free agent and use Pagan off the bench. However, if we want to trade for Granderson and sign Polanco, Sheets & Garland and stay within our budget, this is one of the places where we have to be frugal. I prefer Pagan to Francoeur, so I'm going with Angel.

(7) Because of budget constraints, we're limited in who we can add to the bullpen. I'd love to add a proven setup guy like Rafael Betancourt or Brandon Lyon, but we don't have the money to do it. Improving our position players & our starting pitching takes priority over the bullpen. Therefore, I'm going to limit us to signing Joe Biemel, at a price around $1 million. Biemel would be the 2nd lefty in the bullpen, but who actually has some ability to get righties out (career OPS of .790 against them).

(8) Move John Maine to the bullpen. With the additions of Garland & Sheets, we're going to have to move one of our starters to the bullpen. Maine seems like a better fit for the bullpen than Pelfrey or Ollie. Of course, when Sheets suffers the inevitable injury, Maine will be available to fill in for him.

(9) Trade Luis Castillo & Jeff Francoeur. I don't hate Castillo the way some Mets fans do, but the combination of extreme lack of power & horrible range at 2b, plus the likelihood that he'll continue to decline with age, make it imperative to get rid of his contract. (Plus, we have to move him if we want to sign Polanco). I'm confident that if we're willing to eat most or all of Luis' contract, we can find somebody to take him off our hands.

As for Francouer, there is no need to reiterate his flaws to AA readers.. Unlike Castillo, Frenchy doesn't come with an expensive contract, so finding a team that's stupid enough to take him shouldn't be hard. The Royals seem like a definite possibility; Dayton Moore is said to have an affinity for Francoeur.

Our projected starting lineup looks like this:

C: Zaun

1B: Murphy/Garko

2B: Polanco

SS: Reyes

3B: Wright:

RF: Pagan

CF: Beltran

LF: Granderson

Rotation

Santana

Sheets

Garland

Ollie

Pelfrey

Bullpen:

K-Rod

Parnell

Green

Biemel

Feliciano

Figueroa//Nieve/Stokes

Maine

Note: We'd be adding around $30 million to our payroll, which leaves us with the $150 million budget that the Mets are looking at.

AAOP

2009-11-17T16:11:29Z

First thing to do is to make sure that if the Padres are going to trade Adrian Gonzalez, they trade him to the Mets. I'd offer Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis (expendable with Gonzalez coming in), John Maine, Wilmer Flores and Brad Holt. If you think that's too much, then it's probably just enough.

Second thing to do is to see how much the Diamondbacks want to dump Chris Snyder. I'd offer Castillo, Mejia and Nick Evans for Snyder and Brandon Webb (last year of his contract at $8.5mil). The D-backs do this trade because they need 2b help, they hate the Snyder contract (3 years $12mil), are afraid they can't keep Webb and because it opens up additonal payroll for them to make a run at Lackey.

Then I'd see if we could sign both Gonzalez and Webb to long-term deals. Given that Webb missed almost the whole season last year, he might sign something like 4 years $50mil if we tear up the $8.5mil for 2010. And Gonzalez, I'd offer Teixeira money as a start.

Third thing to do is to offer Jason Bay a 3-year $45mil contract. I don't love Holliday, and I'm suspicious of any player whose numbers seem so dependant on playing in a certain ballpark. Given the Mets' first year in Citi, I don't want to take a chance of being tied to a guy who has suddenly become a .276 hitter with 38 doubles and 15 home runs for $16mil per over 5-6 years. And since I've used all our trading chips on Webb and Gonzalez, and the drop-off is significant after Bay, I see no other choice. How's that for a ringing endorsement for a $15mil a year player? "We have no other choice!"

Then we need to shore up the bullpen by bringing back Octavio Dotel and bringing in Rafael Betancourt. Last 2 years Dotel has been healthy, pitching to a 3.33 ERA in '09 with 75K in 62.1 IP pitching in a hitters' park in Chicago. Betancourt has career ERA of 3.16 and WHIP of 1.12 with more than 1 K per IP.

Yes, I'd move Murphy to second base. First of all, if he can hit like he did in the second half last year (.282 with 27 doubles) he'll hit plenty for a middle infielder. And secondly, he showed great range and hands at first last year. I think he'd be at least passable at 2nd. I'd bring in someone like Craig Counsell or Adam Kennedy as a utility infielder and as a back-up in case Murphy is no better at second than he was in left field.

And the last thing is to bring in some veteran pitchers on minor league deals like Contreras, Prior, Brett Tomko, Jason Schimdt. Get 2-3 guys like that for the "break glass in case of emergency" situations.

So the lineup is Reyes (ss), Wright (3b), Gonzalez (1b), Beltran (cf), Bay (lf), Francoeur (rf), Murphy (2b), Snyder (c). Santos would share catching duties again, with Thole in AAA. Bring back Tatis, Pagan and Counsell as utility players.

The rotation would be Santana, Webb, Pelfrey, Perez, Niese.

The bullpen would be Rodriguez, Dotel, Betancourt, Feliciano, Parnell, Stokes and Misch.

By my count, if Gonzalez and Webb both agree to long-term contracts starting this year, the Payroll would be about $150mil. If not, it'd be around $135mil.

Grissionometer

2009-11-17T13:29:36Z

"...they won’t be satisfied with a ‘sissy’ game…They will expect and demand a stepped-up, more competitive type of play- rugged and hard, though fair. It is up to baseball to give these men the vigorous exhibitions they are expecting…It can be accomplished by good old-fashioned hustling on every play, and the display of an aggressive, competitive spirit that is controlled, but not ruthlessly suppressed…"

I’ve discovered the sabermetric philosopher’s stone. I’ve discovered the formula to compute grission into a statistic that can be quantifiably expressed and compared vis-à-vis other players. I’ll admit, it involves some fairly complicated mathematics, but once you get used to the formula, computing grission into quantifiable units of measure, henceforth known as ‘Zerons’, becomes second nature:

[(St / LSm) + (M x Fu) / MLT] x FP

Where…

St: The total number of individual dirt/grass stains on the player’s uniform

LSm: Length of their smile in inches

M: Number of statements made to the media on average, per week

Fu: Number of times the F-word is used in a sentence, as an emphatic adjective

MLT: Divided by the length of their Major League tenure in years

FP: Average number of fist pumps into the air after getting an important hit/out

Now, mind you, this is only a basic formula. As the field delves deeper and deeper into this conundrum of quantifying grission, new formulae may become available...

0. These players fake injuries so that they doesn’t have to play, and don’t pay attention when they are playing, concentrating on creating new handshakes or dances instead.

1. Doesn’t care about baseball. Money is the ultimate goal for these kinds of players. They may or may not have souls.

2. Doesn’t care about their individual performances and aren’t devastated when they perform poorly.

3. The type of players that try, but just don’t have enough mojo. Wearing oversized helmets and dressing up as cheerleaders probably doesn’t help.

4. These players are prima-donnas who are very hair-conscious, and “pimp-out” their websites and cars.

5. Every player should be, at bare minimum, like these types of players. They often try to be even more grissiony, but don’t exactly accomplish it, leading to semi-comical outtakes.

6. These players have a lot of Zerons. Their bodies physically expand to accommodate the fact.

7. These players are so grissony, they are willing to play through injuries, and the fact that, overall, they really just aren’t great baseball players. They put their bodies on the line all the time, and when injured, refuse trips to the DL, in which replacements who are statistically better in many categories than they are are “forced” to take over their spot.

8. These players are stand-up guys. They’re class acts. They have heart. They’re gamers. They get their uniforms dirty. They’re winning players. They get those kind of hits, makes those kinds of plays

9. These kinds of players bathe in beer, and get pissed off when it’s light beer. They do douchy things on the base paths because they are willing to do anything to make sure their team wins. They are pesky, hypocritical anuses, plain and simple.

10. You know you’ve reached the pinnacle of grission when you psychologically abuse your friends to ensure that you have a higher batting average. These players live hard- they binge drink, they smoke heavily, and womanize. Assaulting disabled hecklers in the stands from time to time puts them over the top of the Grissionometer.

Madoff, Backman, and an Old Baseball Jacket

2009-11-17T04:30:30Z

Amidst an array of wood-carved ducks, Rolex watches, and uninspired artwork, a shiny blue and orange jacket with a number 2 on one sleeve and a NY Mets emblem on the other was proudly displayed. Looking at it from the front, you might think it could have belonged to any Mets fan that made their way to Flushing Meadows over the years. You may even envision Tom Seaver standing safely at first base due to a botched sacrificed bunt ready to run the bases. Or perhaps this was the one shred of paraphernalia worn by a family friend who vowed to never take it off until the Mets won the World Series again.

Whatever the case may be, when you proceed to investigate who this particular piece of clothing belongs to, it’s hard not to recoil in disgust. “MADOFF!” That’s right. The notorious mastermind of the most lucrative Ponzi-scheme of all-time was a New York Mets fan. So much so that he decided to pony up with the team’s ownership in hopes of expanding his evil empire until it all came crashing to a devastating halt. Nevertheless, to imagine Bernie Madoff donning his most prized Mets possession (bought at auction for $14,500) brings to mind our most recently notorious Mets aficionados.

Up first is pitcher Jerry Koosman. The legendary left-hander had his best years as a Met. But as the saying goes, it’s not how you start its how you finish. Koosman felt he was above the law or in this case the IRS and is currently serving a six-month jail sentence for tax evasion. Lenny Dykstra, who is fortunately not behind bars, owes tons of money to several financial institutions. “Nails” is so far in debt that he had to pawn away his championship rings and other sought after memorabilia that he acquired over the years as a professional baseball player.

As Koosman and Dykstra continue their honorary fall from grace, the Mets organization has recently announced that Wally Backman, another of the team’s black sheep, will be taking over the managerial duties for the Brooklyn Cyclones next season.

“He has always been a fan favorite in New York, symbolizing the blue-collar work ethic and unbridled dedication to winning that this city – and particularly this borough – values above all else in its sports stars,” Cyclones general manager Steve Cohen said. “Brooklyn and Backman were made for each other.” Perhaps, we will be seeing those exact words atop the Kosciusko Bridge on our way into Kings County.

As if Brooklyn doesn’t have enough of a slightly skewed reputation, now it has to embrace someone who has been arrested twice and has had financial problems in the past. Not to mention that Backman was also canned after just four days on a job once. I guess everybody deserves a second chance. I, personally, think the hiring of the fiery Backman is a good thing. It makes perfect sense. As long as he keeps his shirt on or jacket (haha) in this instance, he should have nothing to worry about.

Oh, by the way, Backman was released from the Chicago White Sox organization in 2003 as a minor league manager. Why? He was lobbying for the White Sox manager position. From who, you ask? Jerry Manuel.

AAOP. The Way to fix the mets roster without causing to much damage to their minors system (batting)

2009-11-17T00:11:36Z

his is a relistic chart not a dream team

C Miguel Olivo Type B free agent

the reason for olivo is pretty simple 1. he won’t cost a draft pick. 2 he is younger and has the same power numbers as bengie molina a type A and is much younger

1B/LF Marcus Thames a bargain it says minor leauge (which also means that the tigers will get no compensation) FA but don’t belive what you see just look at the stats he can also play OF the other posistion the METS need the only reason he is Minor Leaugue FA is beacause the tigers didn’t have enought room for him on the ML roster and he played with the Yankees so we know he can play in NY (stats below article

Read the article here

DETROIT -- Marcus Thames' Tigers tenure is likely over. The team removed him from the 40-man roster Friday, the first step towards making the slugging outfielder a free agent.

The move was part of the Tigers' maneuverings to prepare their 40-man roster. Catcher Matt Treanor also was taken off the roster and will become a free agent. Reliever Joel Zumaya and infielder Jeff Larish were reinstated from the 60-day disabled list as required.

Infield prospect Michael Hollimon also was taken off the DL, but he was outrighted to Triple-A Toledo. Also added was reliever Jay Sborz, who would've been a Minor League free agent had his contract not been purchased.

Thames was eligible for arbitration and was thus expected to be non-tendered this offseason. From that standpoint, Friday's move makes him a free agent sooner and gives him more time to find a new team than he would've had if the Tigers waited until the December deadline to offer a contract. Nonetheless, it pretty much ends a Tigers stint that included several big home runs and torrid stretches, though they never earned him the everyday role he would've liked.

The Tigers signed Thames as a Minor League free agent after the 2003 season. He was a former highly-touted prospect with the Yankees, with whom he made his Major League debut by homering off Randy Johnson in his first big league at-bat. He hit 10 home runs in 184 plate appearances in Detroit in 2004, then stuck with the Tigers for good with a 26-homer season in 2006.

From there, he became known for torrid stretches at the plate. He tied a franchise record in 2008 by homering in five straight games, matching a mark shared by Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg, Rudy York, Vic Wertz and Willie Horton. He had a 10-game stretch during that time in which all eight of his hits were home runs, the longest such streak by a Major League player since Mark McGwire's 11 straight home runs in 2001.

Thames seemed set to get a bump in playing time this season once the Tigers released Gary Sheffield at the end of Spring Training. A season-opening slump at the plate and a painful oblique injury in April, however, started him on a year that didn't work out the way he or the Tigers would've liked.

By season's end, his playing time was limited, and it wasn't likely to improve with the trio of Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Ryan Raburn expected to share time in the corner outfield spots and at DH next year.

Thames' 13 home runs, 36 RBIs, 258 at-bats and .453 slugging percentage this year marked his lowest totals since 2005. He batted .252 for the year.

Thames hit 99 home runs in 1,463 at-bats over his Tigers career, an average of a homer every 14.78 at-bats. He homered once every 14.52 at-bats since the start of the 2006 season, the fourth-best ratio among American League players with at least 1,000 plate appearances in that stretch.

The 32-year-old Thames, as well as the 33-year-old Treanor, will become free agents once they formally notify the Tigers that they will not be accepting outright assignments to the Minor Leagues. They'll immediately be free to sign with any Major League club.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

2008 Detroit Tigers

103 316 50 76 12 0 25 56 163 24 95 0 3 .292 .516 .241

2009 Detroit Tigers

87 258 33 65 11 1 13 36 117 29 72 0 2 .323 .453 .252

or Carlos Delgado on a 1 year contract

I have to be honest and have to say that Daniel murphy 08 was a fluke he never got above AA till he was called up people, 09 was the real murphy

2B Luis Castillo ahh lets be honest no on is going to take him.

3B David Wright

SS Jose Reyes

RF Jeff Franchor

CF Carlos Beltron

LF I want to say Cliff Floyd but that not going to happen as long as minaya is GM so

Matt Holliday (there’s not so many great OF FA out there suprisingly) his stats speak for themselves (Plan B Marcus Thames see 1B above.)

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

2009 Oakland Athletics

93 346 52 99 23 1 11 54 157 46 58 12 3 .378 .454 .286

2009 St. Louis Cardinals

63 235 42 83 16 2 13 55 142 26 43 2 4 .419 .604 .353

Totals

156 581 94 182 39 3 24 109 299 72 101 14 7 .394 .595 .313

This Is What Is Wrong With WAR

2009-11-16T23:43:05Z

From the Hardball Times

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/criminals-of-war/

Now, I use WAR and I think it is a good stat, but I have mentioned a few times here not to overuse it or trust it too much. I have recieved lots of criticism about this (and my AAOP post) so I would like to point a few things out. The numbers I use will correspond with the numbers in the link, so if I skip a number it is because I am skipping to a different numbered paragraph in the story.

1. It mentions how baserunning is not included in WAR. Take Angel Pagan. So many people want him to play RF everyday in 2010, but everyone seems to forget that he does not know how to run the bases well.

2. Do some research, does Jason Kendall still suck because he has bad WAR and is old? He has a better RF/G and RF/9 than Joe Mauer.

4. Neither Kendall nor Podsednik have negative WARs, but they both have strong points. Kendall his defense and Pods his speed.

Arguments? Agreements?

AAOP: Pitching wins.

2009-11-16T22:17:29Z

I'm going to keep the offseason as simple as I can. I want to try to protect as many draft picks as I can because I believe in Miracles and the first Miracle that is going to happen is, the Mets are going to start putting money and attention on the draft.

With that in mind I'm mostly going to be signing high risk high reward guys who don't cost draft picks to fill holes.

My two major free agent acquisitions cost me no compensation: Brad Penny for 2 years 6-8 million dollars. I'm willing to go higher in years with some buyouts. Penny is a former ace and workhorse who is on the comeback trail from injuries. His mostly (two horrendous games) impressive second half will continue this year and I look for big innings and farely steady (better than Maine, Pelfrey and definitely Perez) performances from him.

Second, Ben Sheets: He was out of baseball with injuries last season but, he is a no. 1 stud so I take a heavily incentive laden contract on him and go the patient route with him. Hope for a mid season rebound and an ace next year. So the incentives include a team option for next year and some acheiveble numbers to lock him in for a third and fourth, (innnings and era based). This contract would be a base of a couple million with incentives taking it to 10 or 12 million per with acheived innings and era.

With Penny aboard I now have the room to deal some starters and I start shopping for the big fish. NO, not Holliday. Great pitcher that could easily become Kevin Appier during his astronomical contract. No, the fish I speak of is the King Fish, King Felix. I know he's said to be off the table. But I'm going to call and ask and ask and beg and see what it's going to take. He's worth the price of say...you pick two Pelfrey Maine Niese, and F-Mart , Parnell, Brad Holt, Tejada and Wilmer Flores. See if that gets it done. I'm willing to give more if need be, only Ike Davis is off the table. If this works, I have the best number one and two in baseball with Penny to slot in third with the remaining of the above three at four and Perez on day five...see what happens. Still have Sheets and Nieve waiting in the wings.

Now my pitching is fixed. Still have holes, I know. I've got it, worry not. I'm dealing Castillo to the Cubs in a three way trade that gets me Fontenot from the Cubs and Met killer Pat Burrell from the Rays. Yes, Burrell, I said it, deal. He's got the gap power we need regardless of his defense which I have a partial fix for. Now the free agents:

I sign some non-compensatory guys: Hank Blalock to share time with Murphy - he's going to have a huge year raking doubles at Citi.

Reed Johnson: Killer utility guy gets his jersey dirty every day and will be a great defensive replacement for Burrell in the late innings as well as being able to give Beltran a blow when need be.

Chad Bradford, Dannys Baez and Mark Prior for the bullpen hoping the latter can have a bullpen resurgence based on no more than the history of former Cub stud starters doing so.

Bring back Ramon Castro for the platoon behind the plate.

And coming to play second base ...Juan Uribe.

Go with those moves and you've got huge upside in the rotation at the plate and a lot of moveable parts in the field. It addresses the positions in need, gets rid of the cancerous Castillo and protects all of our picks. The trade hurts the already pathetic farm system but, all of those guys are huge question marks anyway and if you can get Felix and lock him in for years ...uge huge huge.

Lastly, sign Wang if he is indeed non-tendered. You then have two huge pitching potentials in the wings.

Lineup:

Reyes SS

Beltran CF

Wright 3B

Francour RF

Murphy / Blalock !B

Uribe / Fontenot 2B

Burrell LF

Santos / Castro C

Pitchers:

Johan Santana

Felix Hernandez

Brad Penny

Maine Niese or Pelfrey

Oliver Perez

Feliciano

Bradford

Prior

Baez

Stokes

Green

K-Rod

Bench - Pagan, Johnson, Uribe/Fontenot, Castro/Santos, Blalock/Murphy. See how well those platoons look when their counterpart is on the bench? A thing of beauty!

Now we play some ball with good defense (except in left - what's new) great pitching and some gritty grinders like we love. GO METS!!!

It took some discipline to stay away from a prime time second baseman but...defense and utility rule here. Honestly don't like the available options enough to throw the money and draft picks at them.

BTW - I call Delgado and beg him to turn down arbitration and offer it to he and Tatis.

AAOP: The Rick(y/ie) Plan

2009-11-16T21:46:57Z

via www.adonde.com

2010 Mets

I based most of my decisions on information from Fangraphs and Hardball Times. For the decisions not based on stats were just from my gut.

Lineup:

SS Jose Reyes ($9 mil)

3B David Wright ($10.25 mil)

CF Carlos Beltran (18.5 mil)

LF Matt Holliday ($18 mil)

1B Carlos Delgado (~$10 mil)

2B Rickie Weeks (~$3 mil with arbitration)

RF Jeff Francouer (~$4 mil with arbitration)

C Chris Snyder ($4.75 mil)

Rotation:

Johan Santana ($21 mil)

Ricky Nolasco (~$4 mil with arb)

Mike Pelfrey ($.5 mil)

Oliver Perez (12 mil)

Rich Harden (~$10 mil)

Erik Bedard (DL until Aug) (~$7 mil)

Bullpen

Francisco Rodriguez ($11.5 mil)

J.J. Putz (~$6 mil)

Brian Stokes (.4 mil)

Pedro Feliciano (~2 mil with arb)

Fernando Nieve ($.4 mil)

Adam Bostik($.4 mil)

Sean Green ($.4 mil)

Bench:

Wilson Valdez ($.4 mil)

Omir Santos ($.4 mil)

Angel Pagan (~$1 mil with arb)

Chris Carter ($.4 mil)

Daniel Murphy ($.5 mil)

Total Cost assuming all incentives kick in= ~$154 million

Sign Matt Holliday to a 6 year $110 million deal. He is a very good hitter and a good enough fielder to solidify both the lineup and the outfield.
I would make a trade for Ricky Nolasco and Rickie Weeks. I would guess that a package of Brad Holt, Ruben Tejada, Javier Rodriguez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and maybe Jeurys Familia might get Nolasco. I would be hesitant but willing to throw in another prospect not named Mejia, Davis, Martinez, or Flores. Nolasco is an ace who had a ton of bad luck last year explaining the difference between his ERA (5.06) and his XFIP (3.29).
Trading Maine and Parnell might get us Weeks and if that isn't enough throw in Jose Coronado. This would give us an ace for our number two starter who is under control for 3 years and a 2B who has a lot of potential despite many question marks.
Resign Delgado to a one year deal with a $3 million base and incentives up to $10 mil. If he can stay healthy enough to play in about 120 games he can be a very nice buy. Murphy and Carter should be good enough for the other 42 games.
Sign Rich Harden to an identical deal to Delgado's with an option for a second year. He is the ultimate high risk/high reward guy. He has a ton of potential to both pitch like an ace and to be injured the whole year.
I would love to bring in Chris Ianetta but he would probably cost too much in prospects so instead I would trade Luis Castillo and Michael Antonini for Chris Snyder. Snyder is coming off of a back surgery but is young and could be a solid catcher for us next year.
Sign Erik Bedard to a one year deal worth $3 mil and have incentives up to $7 mil. He has a good deal of potential and could end up providing us with depth when he comes back.
Sign Putz to a one year deal with a $2 million base and incentives up to $6 mil.
Sign Valdez to a 1 year league minimum deal. He was a very good defensive backup at both 2b and ss.
Sign Mark Prior, Edgardo Alfonzo, Noah Lowry, Julio Lugo, Chad Cordero, Brian Schneider, and Rich Hill to minor league contracts. Most of these guys are coming off injuries and have a good amount of upside if healthy. Schneider is a pretty good defensive catcher according to some attempts at evaluating catcher defense and hopefully will continue to take Thole under his wing in AAA. Fonzie would be more of a signing because he's Fonzie.
Nieve has the stuff to be a solid reliever and his starting experience would allow him to pitch multiple innings. Bostik would be a lefty specialist because he murdered lefties in the minors this year.
I would turn Murphy into a super-sub playing mainly 1b and 2b for if/when Delgado and Weeks get injured/need a day off.
My gut tells me to avoid Wolf, Pineiro, Bay, and Hudson.
An alternative to the Nolasco/Weeks trades would be to trade Brad Holt, Ruben Tejada, Scott Moviel, Javier Rodriguez, and Bobby Parnell for Brandon Phillips and Aaron Harang. Phillips is a good defensive 2b who will help the pitching staff while Harang will benefit from Citi Field and the Mets solid outfield defense. This plan would entail not signing Delgado or Harden and giving up more prospects. For this plan I would sign Tatis/Blalock/Atkins as a backup. Tatis is the most versatile and best fielder while Atkins and Blalock have more power potential.
Non-tender Tim Redding. Bring Figueroa back to AAA. Put Reed and Sullivan in AAA as well.

AAOP: Al Harazin Would Be Proud

2009-11-16T21:47:29Z

As I wrote earlier, the primary goal of the Mets organization this off-season should be to implement better long-term planning (ie, build depth, improve the farm system, obtain more payroll flexibility) – all while fielding a competitive team for 2010.

In other words: finding that sweet spot between building a solid foundation for the future that protects our assets, while trying to field a competitive team for this season.

The way to best attempt this is to use an approach that is tailored to the market that currently exists – a free agent market weak in pitching and deep in some offensive positions, and a trade market loaded with potential pitching bargains from struggling (both financially and baseball-ly) teams.

Every move should be made with the goals of getting younger, better, and more flexible.

CATCHER: Sign Kelly Shoppach at one year, $1.5 million – a former top prospect, Shoppach has shown he can play on the big-league level -- when given a chance – demonstrating 20 HR pop and good defense, that is under-valued.

Shoppach will be a solid, cheap, high upside stopgap at the position until Tholes is ready. He’ll be backed up by cheap, serviceable backup Omir Santos.

FIRST BASE: To buy a year or two while Ike develops, Nick Johnson signs for 1 year at $7 million (and a club option for $9mm for 2011). I know his UZR declined last year, but he’s had a good glove almost all of his career (and I’m banking on him returning to his mean UZR), he is a professional bat, an OBP machine, and a tough guy who can probably handle NY. It’s a nice, relatively inexpensive short-term solution while we wait for Ike to develop.

He is an injury risk and fat, so Murphy will be on our bench ready to back him up if needed.

SECOND BASE: We trade Luis Castillo to Chicago, along with $2 million per year for Jake Fox. As I wrote previously, Fox is a strong right-handed bat/prospect who hit a (no-doubt fluky) .413 with 17 HR in 160 triple-A at bats last year but is under-valued by Chicago because he’s old for a prospect (27), a less-than-stellar fielder, and is blocked in Chicago at the positions he does play (1B - Derrick Lee, 3B - Aramis Ramirez, and C - Geovany Soto).

This has resulted in Fox being no more than a 24th or 25th player on the Cubs bench. So the Cubs trade him to the Mets in return for a solid major leaguer (and again $2 million per season) and fill a hole for two years at 2B while they wait for prized prospect Starlin Castro to develop.

As for the Mets, we will use Fox for a trade down below, and fill our 2B position with

Felipe Lopez and his 7.8 UZR -- a worthy investment if we’re not required to go more than two years and the cost per year is no more than $4 or 5 million. I worry that his season last year is begging for a regression to the mean, but at two years (the same duration we’d be on the hook for Castillo), I can live with paying a better, younger player with more weapons, less money.

SHORTSTOP/3RD BASE: Reyes, Wright

LEFTFIELD: Sign Holliday. It’s a free agent deal for a stud that doesn’t require a prospect-laden trade (think Santana, Piazza, etc), and the guy can play. If they can get him down to just a five year commitment (by offering more per season), that’s a steal. That way you have him under control until he’s 34, a completely reasonable length to a contract. In this scenario, we pay $18.5 million/year over five years.

CENTERFIELD: Beltran.

RIGHTFIELD: I’m a Pagan fan. I’m not going to lie – I toyed with inking Vlad Guerrero to a bargain-basement, one-year, incentive-laden contract (despite injuries, he did manage to hit .300/.347/.498 in the second half last year and post a .343 wOBA for the year) but ultimately decided his lack of mobility and steady decline are not even worth the flyer. Despite a small sample, Pagan earned a look as the starting RF and will bring some speed (and poor judgment) to the bottom of the lineup.

BENCH: Murphy, Santos, we sign Endy C, sign Jerry Hairston Jr, and bring back the hated Tatis for his versatility and power off the bench, and pray that Jerry not over-use him or put him up in situations where double-plays would be deadly.

STARTING PITCHING: Santana, Perez, and Pelfrey ain’t going nowhere

We’re going to bolster our rotation through trades. Not the kind that involves emptying the farm and spending wild sums of money at the same time (Halliday), but ones that enable us to get good, young, cheap talent in deals with teams having recession-based problems, or others like Texas who have pitching surpluses, etc.

Detroit has widely advertised that it needs to move players and it needs to do it now. Edwin Jackson is our goal and we’re going to need to take on a crappy contract to do it. Mets fans, please welcome Jeremy Bonderman.

That's right, the 26-year old Edwin Jackson -- who projects as a #2 or #3 starter and made $2.2 last year but is arbitration-eligible and likely to make $5m – will come along with the albatross that is Bonderman’s contract. The bad news is it’s $12 million. The good news is it’s one year and comes off the books at the end of the year, while Edwin remains in our control. We will ask for a reasonable $1.5 million cash in return to defray some of this contract, so we’re paying Bonderman a still-unseemly $10.5 million.

In return, the Tigers will get relatively cheap (compared to Bonderman, anyway), high-upside SP John Maine and new starting RF Jeff Francoeur, an RBI machine who immediately improves their outfield defense by moving current RF Magglio to the DH spot.

Trade: Francoeur & Maine for E-Jax and Bonderman and $1.5 million cash

Next up we’re going to send Jake Fox, the right-handed bat -- who has beaten up on minor league pitching and showed lots of promise in 200 MLB AB’s last year – along with Nick Evans, Chris Carter, and Bobby Parnell to Texas for well-regarded young SP Derek Holland. Holland struggled in the bigs last year but has huge upside and shown great promise in the minors.

For Texas, Fox gives them the right-handed bat they covet and slots in as their starting DH (replacing the ineffectual David Murphy as Jose Borbon slots into the OF) where his defense does no harm, and Texas attemps to work its magic on him after having had great success with similar late-blooming bat Nelson Cruz. Evans is another right-handed bat, which we know they covet, and comes into camp competing for the starting first baseman job against Chris Davis (and his .284 OBP). And they get Parnell to replenish some of the pitching depth they surrender by losing Holland. The trade helps Texas dig into their pitching depth, fill some holes, and get some cheap talent.

Trade: Jake Fox, Nick Evans, Chris Carter, & Bobby Parnell for Derek Holland.

BULLPEN: K-Rod, Feliciano (re-up at $4 million over 2 years), sign Saito (who is old but gets people out and succeeded in pressure spots in LA and Boston) for $3mm/1yr, sign Joe Beimel for $2mm/1yr, and bring back Sean Green.

THIS LEAVES YOU WITH:

Starting lineup:

SS REYES (9mm)

2B F LOPEZ (5mm)

CF BELTRAN (20mm)

LF HOLLIDAY (18.5 mm)

3B WRIGHT (10mm)

1B N JOHNSON (7mm)

RF PAGAN (.4mm)

C SHOPPACH (1.5mm)

TOTAL LINEUP: $73.5 MM (including $2MM sent to Chicago)

Bench:

IF HAIRSTON JR (2mm)

C SANTOS (.4mm)

OF CHAVEZ (1.5mm)

1B MURPHY (.4mm)

IF-OF TATIS (2mm)

TOTAL BENCH: $6.5MM

Rotation:

SP SANTANA (21mm)

SP E JACKSON (5mm)

SP D HOLLAND (.5mm)

SP PELFREY (.5mm)

SP NIESE (.4mm)

SP BONDERMAN (plus $1.5mm cash = 10.5mm)

SP O PEREZ (12mm)

TOTAL ROTATION: $50 MM

Bullpen:

RP K-ROD (12mm)

RP FELICIANO (2mm)

RP SAITO (3mm)

RP BEIMEL (2mm)

RP GREEN (1mm)

TOTAL BULLPEN: $20MM

TOTAL PAYROLL: $150 MILLION

FINAL ANALYSIS:

This team has a chance to win this year, but is really built for 2011 and beyond. The rotation is loaded with young arms, but if they falter, veterans like Bonderman or Perez can pitch (though not necessarily effectively) while the younger arms like Holland and Niese develop. From a long range perspective, it's a strong nucleus of young arms under our control at basement rates.

Offensively, Holliday brings a huge power punch that we need and Shoppach brings some pop to the 8th slot, but the lineup is balanced with speed, switch-hitters, and good fielders. None of our prospects anywhere are blocked.

After 2010, we lose the Bonderman contract and then have no bad/big contracts, besides one more year of Oliver Perez. The long term health of the club would be strong. And it’d be a fun team to watch.

AAOP: Lobby for Offseason Plan (long and hard)

2009-11-16T21:47:18Z

When I sat down to write this plan, I asked myself "What would Omar do?" Then, I did the opposite. My plan is based around statistical analysis using freely available sites such as fangraphs, great deals for unlucky players, and a superstar or two. Without further ado...

Catcher: Dioner Navarro (trade)

It is no secret that Navarro had a down year last year for Tampa Bay, and that many were displeased with his work behind the plate. A closer look, however, reveals that his peripherals were very similar to his great 2008 season. The drop was on BABIP, which fell from .323 to .230. His LD% only shifted downward 4 or 5 percentage points, which could be attributed to scoring judgment differences. I believe that Navarro will come back to his mean and put up at least a 2 WAR season. Navarro would be a buy-low candidate and someone like Bobby Parnell should suffice to get him since the Rays are looking for cheap bullpen help.

First Base: David Wright

WHAT? D-Wright at first base? He won a gold glove!!! Unfortunately, UZR indicates that Wright's defense at third was atrocious last year. He had two positive seasons prior, but before that his UZR was also negative. Overall, a move to first base would probably help his defense where he could use his range to his advantage and less the negative impact of his arm. Overall, this would fill the void for 1B production while keeping decent defense.

Second Base: Felipe Lopez

After trading Luis Castillo to the dodgers for a minor prospect, Omar should not sign the "O-Dawg" and should instead sign Felipe Lopez to around a 1 year, $4 million deal. Lopez is better defensively than hudson (and Castillo) and is also better offensively. We can expect his numbers to regress slightly due to a .360 BABIP, but Lopez has a high LD% and can be expected to maintain a generally high BABIP based on career numbers. Additionally, he would be younger and cheaper than either O or Castillo.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes

Third Base: Chone Figgins

The Mets appear to be interested in Chone, which is a good thing. The problem is that they are interested in him for 2B and LF. His value comes as a third basemen, in which he is one of the best defensively in the league. Signing him to a 4 year, $40 million contract seems reasonable considering he has posted over $11 million in value since 2007. His skillset also translates long term, which would make him a good candidate for a long deal. He would improve the defense at third, and when comparing his numbers to Murphy's last year (since that is who he is replacing in the lineup), he would be an outstanding upgrading.

Left Field: Mike Cameron

Rather than sign Matt Holliday to a massive $150 million deal, signing Cameron to a 1 year, $7 million contract would be of a greater value and less of a risk. Cameron plays outstanding defense in center field, and when translated to left (or Beltran to left for that matter) would be a massively positive UZR, especially when compared to last year's Gary Sheffield. Cameron also is quite skillful with the bat, posting a WOBA over .330 since 1997 (and generally higher).

Center Field: Carlos Beltran

Right Field: Randy Winn

Unfortunately, Omar would never non-tender Grissionceour but in my fantasy world, Randy Winn would man right for the Mets next season. The past 2 seasons, Winn has posted a UZR over 13. Just by doing this, he is more valuable than Franceour. He was not excellent with the bat last season, but his peripherals were mostly consistent with prior years and it is not unreasonable to expect him to rebound. A 1 year, $4 million contract should suffice.

Starting Pitchers: Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Rich Harden, Joel Piniero, Erik Bedard with Jon Niese as the fill-in

It is safe to assume Santana and Pelfrey will be back. The rest of the rotation will be filled out with free agents. Harden would probably sign for 2 years/$16 million. Piniero for 4 years/ $36 million. Bedard for 1 year/ $4 million. Harden and Bedard are injury prone which makes them signable. Injuries, however, are generally random and therefore something worth taking a risk on. Piniero pitched like an ace last season, and Citi Field will likely help keep his HR rate low. Pelfrey, with a better defense, will pitch better than his 2008 numbers based on peripherals. Santana should rebound if the surgery was okay. Niese will serve as a fill-in should any pitcher get hurt.

Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Brain Socks, Pedro Feliciano, Adam Bostick, Jenry Mejia, Sean Green

Relievers are about as random as they come. K-rod is the best option at closer for now. Maine should be a decent 8th inning man based on his numbers through the first time through the lineup. Oliver Perez has no where else to go. Brain Socks is pure win. Feliciano is a decent lefty specialist. Bostick has the potential to be Feliciano. Mejia can be used like Joba, or Neftali Feliz. Green is the righty specialist. A decent bullpen, certainly better than last years, and CHEAP.

Bench: Josh Thole, Angel Pagan, Adam Everett, Fernando Tatis

Adam Everett would sign for 1 year/ $1 million. Tatis played well last year and could be used in a multitude of positions. Everett is an EXCELLENT defensive shortstop, and would be fine in case of an injury. Thole would be able to learn as a backup catcher, and hopefully steal the spot. Pagan put up over 2 WAR last year in limited time and seems to be a decent offensive and defensive player.

That is my plan. It is long, but it is detailed and it would result in a great team. Payroll additions: Everett ($1 million), Harden ($8 million), Bedard ($4 million), Pineiro ($8 million), Winn ($4 million), Cameron ($7 million), Figgins ($10 million), Lopez ($4 million), Navarro ($2 million).

Subtractions: Delgado, Frenchy, Castillo, Cora, Sullivan, Putz, Schneider, Redding, Sheffield.

Overall, the budget basically breaks even BUT there are less long-term commitments. The team, if it develops it's minor league players properly, could be playing under $100 million in 2 years. This team hits better and fields MUCH better than the 2009 version... even fully healthy.

AAOP: Half-assed offseason plan

2009-11-16T21:34:32Z

I wasn't going to do one of these because I spent my weekend in a drunken stupor and because I have a shit-ton of work to do this week. However, I was inspired by Evan's post last night and realized that schoolwork does not excuse me from proving that any scrub can do a much better job than Omar Minaya and the Mets FO. So, without further rambling, I present my quickly thought-out plan for the Mets' 2010 off-season.

Lineup
Position	Player	Age	Salary	WAR
Catcher	Josh Thole	23	0.50	0.50
1st Base	Nick Johnson	31	7.00	2.66
2nd Base	Felipe Lopez	29	6.00	2.28
3rd Base	David Wright	27	10.00	5.98
Shortstop	Jose Reyes	26	9.00	3.53
Left Field	Matt Holliday	30	18.00	6.42
Centerfield	Mike Cameron	36	9.00	3.68
Right Field	Carlos Beltran	32	18.50	4.67
Bench
Position	Player	Age	Contract
Catcher	Ramon Castro	34	1.20	0.93
Infield	Adam Everett	35	1.00	0.73
Utility	Daniel Murphy	25	0.50	0.55
Outfield	Angel Pagan	28	2.00	1.38
1st Base / OF	Nick Evans	24	0.50	0.50
		29.23	83.20	33.79

Pitching Rotation
Player	Age	Salary	WAR
Johan Santana	31	21.00	3.92
Mike Pelfrey	26	0.50	1.83
Oliver Perez	28	12.00	0.65
John Maine	28	2.60	1.39
Brian Bannister	29	2.60	2.34
Rich Harden	28	9.00	2.32
Bullpen
Player	Age	Salary	WAR
Joakim Soria	25	3.00	1.88
Kiko Calero	35	2.50	0.67
Pedro Feliciano	33	2.75	0.38
Bobby Parnell	25	0.50	0.50
Sean Green	30	0.50	0.54
Kelvim Escobar	33	2.00	0.50
	29.25	58.95	16.92

Totals
Average Age	29.24
Total Salary	147.15
Total WAR	50.71

Trade Francisco Rodriguez, Jeff Francoeur and $2mm per annum for the remainder of BB-Rod's contract to the Kansas City Royals for Joakim Soria, Brian Bannister, Mike Aviles, and a prospect or two. I would research the Royals' farm system if I had time, but I assume they have a bunch of assets since they have a high draft pick every year. This trade gives the Mets some more cash by clearing the horrible BB-Rod deal. However, money may need to be spent on a world-class PR firm after this deal. Brian Bannister studies Pitch F/X numbers so it is great to have him back.

Sign Matt Holliday to a 6 year deal worth $108mm (~$18mm per year). Holliday is the best player on the free agent market and is good at baseball.

Sign Mike Cameron to a 1 year deal worth $9mm. Cameron is getting older but is still one of the best defensive players in the game, as evidenced by his 10.3 UZR/150 last year. With Holliday and Cameron on the team, move Carlos Beltran to right field to protect his ailing knees. This gives the Mets a defensive outfield that is almost as good as the Mariners last year (Endy, Gutierrez, Ichiro) and is much better with the bat.

Sign Rich Harden to a one year deal worth up to $9mm with incentives plus a team option for $11mm in 2011.

Sign Nick Johnson to a one year deal worth $7mm. Nick Johnson is a good hitter who gets on base a lot. He will play first base for 2010 before Ike Davis is ready to be a starter.

Sign Felipe Lopez for 3 years $18mm. I wanted Placido Polanco but he is a type A. Lopez is only a type B. With Lopez now starting at 2nd base trade Castillo for whatever. Maybe throw him into that Royals trade and get another player in return. Probably add $2mm to the payroll to pay for his contract.

Bring back Ramon Castro for about $1.2mm. He will back up Thole. Keep Omir in Buffalo.

Sign Adam Everett for $1mm. He plays good defense and will be a much better backup for Reyes than Cora, Valdez, Hernandez group. Everett posted a 13.6 and 11.2 UZRs/150 the past two seasons. Not what he once was but still pretty good. His value actually improves when he hits less next year.

Bring back Murphy, Pagan, and Tatis for the bench. Tatis has been decent the past two seasons (1.5 and 1.6 WAR) and is very versatile. He can competently play defense at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF.

Sign Kiko Calero for 2yrs $5mm. Kiko was excellent last season for the Fish, with a 2.56 FIP.

Sign Kelvim Escobar for a one year contract that could potentially be worth $2mm. Escobar was excellent as a starter in 2006-07 for the Angels before getting hurt.

Keep Feliciano, Parnell, and Green in the pen. Use either Perez or Maine as the long-man/spot starter.

Guys in Buffalo include: Santos, Carter, Evans... wait never mind.

Why waste $1.5mm on Tatis? Nick Evans gets his spot on the team.

Other guys in Buffalo: Valdez, Sullivan, Figueroa (if no one else signs him), Socks! (I feel bad doing that to him), F!, Stoner, maybe some guy like Shawn Hill, and some other people I don't feel like thinking about right now. Maybe Jon Niese will start in Buffalo, or maybe he'll make the rotation in Spring Training. I'm not sure what they would do with the pitching then, but it will be enjoyable when you see all those stupid articles about how "the Mets have too much pitching."

*Total Salary column includes all 2010 salaries + $1mm for Putz, $2mm for BB-Rod, and $2mm for Luis. Contract information from the indispensable Cot's Baseball Contracts. New salaries are some random number that I thought sounded good and probably is a terrible estimation.

**WAR totals are computed from a 3-year weighted WAR (5-4-3). This doesn't really work well for guys like Reyes, Beltran, Santana, Maine, Perez, etc who missed significant time due to injury last season, but I used it anyway. I have a feeling that Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Santana will be higher, and Holliday will be slightly lower (but still awesome nonetheless). I made up some numbers for guys like Thole, Parnell, Evans, and Escobar. WAR totals taken from the equally indispensable Fangraphs.

***There were supposed to be colors and organization on those charts. Unfortunately, I suck at the internets and it didn't work. (I just need to convert the spreadsheet to jpg or something but I don't have time for that.)

Later addendum: try to sign Aroldis Chapman.

AAOP: the orange brick road-revised

2009-11-16T20:42:58Z

Ok……so this is my plan to make the New York Mutts a far better team than the collection of guys they managed to put on the field this year. I based the current commitments and arbitration raises per mlbtraderumors.

Please bear with me as my plan depends on a few trades that are somewhat realistic give or take a few tweaks!

First on my list…non tender Tim Redding, he had a good finished but it wasn’t enough. -$2.25MM

Then swing a deal with cincy seeing as they would like to cut payroll. This is what I had in mind: trade oliver perez (ugh!) and Daniel Murphy(nothing against murph) for Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips. I know it seems out there but the reds will drop contracts that are large in the pov but ones that we can take on. Maybe even take on some of ollie’s contract if need be but I’ll pretend we won’t. +$5.35MM

Sign either Molina or Barajas to a 1 or 2 year deal at 2-4MM per. Call it 4MM just for giggles. +$4MM

Sign matt holliday to play LF for 5 or 6 year deal at 15-16MM per. +$16MM

Sign one of wolf garland or marquis to a 2 year deal at most 8MM per(probably for wolf-the others will be cheaper-as long as we get someone to toss at least 200 innings). +8MM

Sign Calero for 2 years at 3MM per. +3MM

Here’s where it gets dicey…..we can either resign Delgado very very cheap(we have evans to back him up if need be) or we can trade some of our top prospects to get Adrian Gonzalez, or we can get creative and just stick with Delgado and trade those guys for the Doc! Either way it’ll probably cost around 5MM to cover first base. But we’ll stick with Delgado at first for now! +5MM

So here’s what the roster projects to be:

C- Molina-$4MM

1B- Delgado-$5MM

2B-Philips-$6.75MM

3B-Wright-$10MM

SS-Reyes-$9MM

LF-Holliday-$16MM

CF-Beltran-$18MM

RF-Francoeur-$3.375MM

Total-$72.125MM

SP-Santana-$21MM

SP-Wolf-$8MM

SP-Arroyo-$11MM

SP-Pelfrey-$1.3MM

SP-Maine-2.6MM

Total-$43.9MM

CP-Rodriguez-$11.5MM

SU-Calero-$3MM

RP-Feliciano-$1.6MM

RP-Green-$471K

RP-Misch-$400K

RP-Parnell-$400K

RP-Stokes-$410K

Total-$17.8MM

IF-Castillo-$6MM

IF-Evans-$400K

OF-Pagan-$575K

OF-Sullivan-$600K

IF-Hernandez-$400K

Total-$7.975MM

Total payroll-$141.8MM-and thats assuming they get stuck with luis on the bench!!!

And of course a few guys have arbitration raises coming so add about 5-6 million

AAOP: follow the blue and orange brick road!!!!!

2009-11-16T20:38:34Z

Please bear with me as my plan depends on a few trades that are somewhat realistic give or take a few tweaks!

First on my list…non tender Tim Redding, he had a good finished but it wasn’t enough. -$2.25MM

Sign either Molina or Barajas to a 1 or 2 year deal at 2-4MM per. Call it 4MM just for giggles. +$4MM

Sign matt holliiday to play LF for 5 or 6 year deal at 15-16MM per. +$16MM

Sign one of wolf garland or marquis to a 2 year deal at most 8MM per(probably for wolf-the others will be cheaper-as long as we get someone to toss at least 200 innings). +8MM

Sign Calero for 2 years at 3MM per. +3MM

So here’s what the roster projects to be:

C- Molina-$4MM

1B- Delgado-$5MM

2B-Philips-$6.75MM

3B-Wright-$10MM

SS-Reyes-$9MM

LF-Holliday-$16MM

CF-Beltran-$18MM

RF-Francoeur-$3.375MM

Total-$72.125MM

SP-Santana-$21MM

SP-Wolf-$8MM

SP-Arroyo-$11MM

SP-Pelfrey-$1.3MM

SP-Maine-2.6MM

Total-$43.9MM

CP-Rodriguez-$11.5MM

SU-Calero-$3MM

RP-Feliciano-$1.6MM

RP-Green-$471K

RP-Misch-$400K

RP-Parnell-$400K

RP-Stokes-$410K

Total-$17.8MM

IF-Castillo-$6MM

IF-Evans-$400K

OF-Pagan-$575K

OF-Sullivan-$600K

IF-Hernandez-$400K

Total-$7.975MM

Total payroll-$141.8MM-and thats assuming they get stuck with luis on the bench!!!

And of course a few guys have arbitration raises coming so add about 5-6 million

AAOP: Grounded in Reality

2009-11-16T20:26:37Z

My plan for the 2010 Mets is very conservative. My goals were simple. I wanted to put the best team on the field while retaining the maximum amount of talent in the system. Maintaining depth insulates against injury, and affords payroll flexibility. Ideally, a team should strive to attain a low amount of dollars spent per win, make the play-offs, and maintain a structure that ensures long-term success. Under this plan, the Mets can make the play-offs, have solid long-term structure, and eventually maximize salary efficiency when the minor league depth starts to mature.

Free Agent Signings

The best way to infuse major league talent into a ball club, without sacrificing minor league talent is through free agency. Having a first round exemption creates an even greater incentive to use free agency.

Matt Holliday- I was split about taking a cost conscious approach this year, and waiting for next years’ free agent class. The problem is that there appears to be a dearth of quality corner OF talent for the next two years. The 2010 class is headlined by Carl Crawford, after which you have Jason Werth, Jason Kubel, and Adam Dunn as the remaining notable players. I was tempted in holding out for Carl Crawford, but found it too dangerous to wait for a player that may never make it to free agency. Matt Holliday does not give us the HR’s Mets fans crave, but he gives us slugging, and that is just fine with me.

Contract: $19M over 6 years with one player option for the 7th year and a mutual option for the 8th (both team and player would have to exercise the option) Total Potential Value $152M.

Joel Pineiro- It is dangerous to buy high a pitcher like him but I do believe his sinking two seamer can allow him to pitch deep into games and the season. I see a more economical Derek Lowe.

Contract: $9M for two years, and a 3rd if innings requirements are reached. Total Potential Value $21M.

Rich Harden- This is less than a sure thing here. It was between Randy Wolf, Jason Marquis, and Rich Harden. I did not like Wolf’s Average Against, and BBAIP. They were lower than his normal. It seems like there could be a regression to the mean, and I would be paying $10M over three years for $6M over two years type production. Rich Harden generates a lot of strikeouts. His injury concerns worry me, but Maine, Perez, Niese and Figgy gives the team depth. If Marquis were available at $6-$7M I would look at him.

Contract: $6M with $8M in incentives with an extension trigger for 1 year at $8M.

Troy Glaus- He gives you right handed power, and versatility. He can spell David Wright at 3rd base and platoon with Daniel Muprhy at 1st base. This move gives us a security blanket. I would love to give Daniel Murphy a full season to develop, but this is just a luxury the Mets do not have. I can see an American League club going hard after Glaus. In the event that he does not garner that much attention, I would scoop him up.

Contract: I think $8M for 1 year would do the trick.

Kiko Calero- Despite a fastball that sits in the high 80’s, he does an amazing job at missing bats with help from his killer slider. His strikeout per nine sat at 10 last year and his career average is at slightly above 9. He can walk his fare share of people, but his BAA usually sits in the low 2’s. He has had some health problems, which could help in tamping down his contract value. He might be a risk, but well worth it.

Contract: $1.5M but could reach $2M with innings and health incentives along with a 1 year extension trigger.

Adam Everet- He can play short and second. He provides a security blanket if Jose were to go down again. His offense would be non-existent but he would provide excellent defense for Pelfrey and Pineiro. He also provides back up for Castillo and a late inning defensive replacement.

Contract: 1yr $2M.

Rod Barajas-

Contract: $3M for 2 years. $2M-2010 $4M 2011.Total Value $6M.

Line-up

1.Jose Reyes (6)

2.Luis Castillo (4)

3.Matt Holliday (7)

4.Carlos Beltran (8)

5.David Wright (5)

6.Jeff Francouer (9)

7.Daniel Murphy/Troy Glaus (3)

8.Rod Barrajas/Omir Santos/Thole (2)

Rotation:

Johan Santana

Joel Pineiro

Rich Harden/Marquis

Mike Pelfrey

John Maine

Oliver Perez/John Niese

Bullpen:

K-Rod

Kiko Calero

Bobby Parnell

Pedro Feliciano

Brant Rustich/Sean Green

Oliver Perez/John Maine

Bench:
Angel Pagan

Adam Everet

Omir Santos

Thole

2010 Free Agent Payroll Impact:

Holliday $19M

Pineiro $9M

Glaus $8M

Harden $6M-8M

Calero $1.5M -$2M

Adam Everet- $2M

Barajas- $2M

Total: $50M

*Please note that the Mets 2010 salary payouts are at roughly $92M.

**Total salary payouts with free agent salary amounts to roughly $142M

Final Thoughts:

The structure of the team still allows for the possibility of bring signing Carl Crawford for RF next year by simply declining to offer Francouer arbitration. If Niese develops, then Harden would create a slot. If his performance triggers an extension then he could be traded. There were some tough breaks that I had to swallow.

The trade market was not very kind. I tried to find a way to trade Castillo away, but could not find any realistic options. There was not enough steam behind the three way Blue Jay/Cubs deal to warrant a solid trade possibility. The same goes for the D-Backs-Castillo rumors. Luis was a tough chip to trade. I know the Cubs want what Castillo has to offer but the logical scenarios would involve eating salary, plus paying O-dog or Polanco $4M-$6M. Adam Everet saves a few million.

I think Freddie W would appreciate that. I also explored the possibilities of Brandon Phillips in a Mets uniform, but again, I could not find a realistic scenario. There were no rumors that gave much credence to Phillips being available. The Reds have not even come out and expressed what they would be looking for in such a deal. All that is written is that they need salary relief. I would imagine they want pitching, but who? It could range from Pelfrey to Tejeda, Holt and Niese. In the end it became clear that the Brandon Phillips rumors did not provide me with enough information to make a credible trade scenario.

My POV on AAOP -- but NOT an AAOP post.

2009-11-16T19:56:19Z

In reading all the AAOP posts, I'm looking at a general kind of drift that's happening among us people who post. I'm seeing a lot of similar items on the wish list.

So here would be kind of an "average" player at each position, as close to a consensus as we can get as to whom we all "want," and what a 2010 roster might look like. Bear in mind, this is just s rough, eyball estimation and I haven't gone through each AAOP with a fine-tooth comb:

C - Omir Santos/Greg Zaun (Josh Thole in AAA, joining the big club sometime in mid-summer)

1B - We seem to be split, here, with semi-equal numbers of us looking for a return of Carlos Delgado, a platoon of Nick Evans and Daniel Murphy, or a Nick Johnson signing. In any case, we all seem to agree that whoever wins the 2010 1B sweepstakes, he'll just be a placeholder until iLIKE is ready.

2B - Placido Polanco, with some looking toward the O-Dawg.

SS - Jose Reyes

3B - David Wright

LF - Matt Holiday, overwhelmingly, but with a vocal bunch looking for Mike Cameron if this proves un-feasible.

CF - Carlos Beltran

RF - Seems to be an "ABF" kind of consensus -- Anybody But Francoeur.

SP - Johan Santana

SP - Mike Pelfrey

SP - Erik Bedard

SP - Ben Sheets

SP - Oliver Perez

Swingman - Nelson Figueroa