Amazin' Avenue: FanPosts

2009 Mets Gangsta and Grission Awards

2009-11-06T22:19:42Z

(bumped from fanposts. --eric)

With the 2009 season done and over, it's time to start handing out hardware. I present to you the first annual Gangsta and Grission Awards. Some of the categories had very tight races, while others were as one-sided as the Imperfect Game. The votes are in, however, and all winners receive as a way to remember their achievements, a Golden Jerry.

Most Gangsta Injury

Jonathon Niese

On August 5th at Citi Field, Jonathon Niese started a game against the Cardinals. In the second inning, he ran over to cover first base, entering into a footrace with Joe Thurston to beat him to the bag. Angel Berroa's relay to 1st caused Niese to hyperextend his legs, leading to a hamstring injury. He returned to the mound to throw a couple of warm-up pitches to test his leg, and as he landed after tossing his first warm-up pitch, his hamstring literally tore from the bone, causing him to collapse in a heap of pain.

Most Gangsta WTF? Moment

Luis Castillo

In a season that was otherwise encouraging for Castillo, he made a single boneheaded move that negated all of his improvements from 2008 for many, many fans. On May 20th, Alex Rodriguez stepped up to the plate in the ninth inning with two outs, and the winning run on base. Francisco Rodriguez induced a simple pop up, something that seemed routine, until Castillo, at the last moment, seemed to realize that his body was not where he wanted it to be. The simple pop up glanced off of his glove, allowing the winning run to score, and Alex Rodriguez was mobbed at first base for hitting into what would have been a rally-ending pop up.

Most Gangsta Play

Daniel Murphy

On July 8th at Citi Field, Mark Loretta hit a scorching grounder down the first base line. As Daniel Murphy was lining himself up to catch it, the ball hit the base itself, shooting upwards. As Bobby Parnell was running over to cover first, Daniel Murphy tracked the ball down, grabbed it barehanded, and flipped it behind his back, over to the covering pitcher who successfully caught it a few inches before Loretta touched the bag.

Most Gangsta Name

J.J. Putz

With a name like Putz, presumably, you are going to get picked on your entire life. When you get picked on, you need to develop a thick skin, as to not let all of those insults get to you. And Putz certainly did. Red hair? You know what is also red? Fire. Do you mess with fire? I don't think so. He has two ears. You know what else has two ears? Elephants. Do you mess with elephants? I don't think so. Both his first and middle names (Joseph Jason) begin with the letter ‘J'. You know what else starts with the letter ‘J'? Jaws. Do you mess with Jaws? No, I didn't think so.

Most Gangsta Promo Give-Away Item

David Wright Bobblehead Night

No, wait...

Most Grissioniest Front Office Member

Tony Bernazard

In the first half of the 2009 season, Tony Bernazard nearly got into fights with Francisco Rodriguez, a Diamondbacks scout, and a handful of Binghamton Mets. In that latter confrontation, he went as far as to take off his shirt. I'm not exactly sure what good that does, but it sure is grissiony.

Most Grissioniest Player

Alff Francoura

No doubt about it, Alex Cora and Jeff Francouer endeared themselves to Mets fans everywhere because of the passion they displayed on the field, the dirty uniforms that they had to launder day in and day out, and all of those other intangibles that you can't possibly quantify, but definitely result in championship caliber teams (see Philadelphia Phillies). Both were injured during the course of the season, but both refused to be put on the DL, because they wanted to help their team THAT much. It'd be impossible to determine which of the two had more grission, so instead of even trying, I decided to combine the blood, sweat and tears of both Cora and Francoeur into one massively grissiony player - Alff Francoura.

Most Grissiony Single Game Performance

Oliver Perez

In a game that didn't particularly mean much (we were 15 ½ games back), but a game that was against the Phillies nonetheless, Oliver Perez certainly pitched some game. Jeff Francoeur lining into that triple play in the ninth overshadows Perez' grissionest performance of the season, but it certainly was a game that was worth paying Perez those big bucks that we're paying him. He only walked two! Sure, he only lasted two outs, and gave up 6 earned runs, but until Jerry came to take him out of the game, he fought through being a crappy pitcher to the best of his abilities. If that's not grission, I don't know what is.

How Would Other Teams Do in 2009 With The Mets Injuries?

2009-11-05T21:30:19Z

Hey everyone, I am new to SB Nation and Amazin Avenue. My name is Bobby and I would like to share this with you. I wrote this piece for my old blog back in August so the numbers might be a little outdated but they still speak very loudly. Here you are:

~~~

The Mets have had 17 different guys on the disabled list throughout the season, not mentioning several guys having multiple stints on that list. 17 out of a 25 man roster. That is 68 percent. Think about that.

Now I am going to give you another statistic. This year, the Mets have used 47 different players on the major league team. 17 injured players, 47 overall. That is 36 percent.

36 percent. 36 percent of all Mets this year have been injured.

That is more than a third. So next time you think that the Mets suck this year, and Mets fans just use injuries as an excuse, think about what your team could do with over a third of its roster missing. That is 8.25 players, but since you can't have a quarter of a player on the DL, lets just say he is Day to Day throughout the season and can not play more than 5 consecutive days.

So lets think about it.

If the Red Sox were missing Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, and Mike Lowell for the entire year, could they make the playoffs? Now obviously all of the Mets players are not all out for the whole year but we have had 17 different guys on the DL, so according to my math that is equivalent to have that 36 percent out the whole year, since after all, these Red Sox are only 8 guys. Now also say J.D. Drew can not play more than 4 or 5 games in a row since he is Day to Day. All season.

Now think about the Dodgers. Minus Manny Ramirez, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, and Andre Ethier. For the whole year. And Orlando Hudson is day to day. Could this team make the playoffs?

Could the Yankees make the playoffs if they did not have CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixiera, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera? And Nick Swisher is day to day?

Take the Giants. Now take away Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Brian Wilson, Pablo Sandoval, Bengie Molina, Freddy Sanchez, Randy Winn, Nate Schierholtz, and Randy Winn is day to day. Not a playoff team.

The Angels could not play in October if they did not have Chone Figgins, John Lackey, Brian Fuentes, Maicer Iztures, Mike Napoli, Vladmir Guererro, Kendry Morales, and Jaun Rivera all gone. And Bobby Abreu is day to day.

Picture the Phillies without Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cliff Lee, Shane Victorino, J.A. Happ, Brad Lidge, Jayson Werth, and Pedro Feliz is day to day.

I think you get my point. There is not a single team in baseball who could endure what the Mets are going through. You have to give them credit for being able to still have a better record than 9 other teams up until this point. And remember them while you make your predictions for the 2010 season.

~~~

Well that is it. What do you guys think? Isn't this astonishing? I had to do a little bit of research to find those numbers but it was well worth it in my opinion, I would really love to watch the Phillies straggle 15 games out of first because they are missing all of their stars.

Gonzalez over Davis?

2009-11-03T03:44:48Z

If the Mets could somehow pull off a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, would the community here be willing to do so if it meant blocking Ike Davis? Or is Gonzalez, and whatever prospects a trade for him would require absolutely worth it? Keep in mind that there would be no guarantee we would keep Gonzalez past 2011, as he might certainly be willing to test free agency. Seems to be a lot of support for Davis, and I'm curious how deep that runs.

Off-season reading: the best baseball books

2009-11-01T23:21:51Z

During the season we spend our time reading recaps, checking blogs, and looking at a glut of boxscores and stats. But now the ticker-tape type info is about to come to a full stop, and the deck is cleared for some bigger, fuller reads.

So what should the winter reading list include? What are the best baseball books? Maybe some categories would help, but feel free to free-associate.

1. Books by or about baseball people. (examples: "Ball Four," "Veeck as in Wreck," any good player bio)

2. Books by baseball writers/journalists. (examples: "Boys of Summer," "The Bad Guys Won")

3. Books that analyze the game or the stats. (examples: stuff by Bill James.)

The robcast Mets Offseason Plan

2009-10-29T13:35:57Z

Seems like just about everybody's got one so why not throw in my two cents. For the record I'm going to try to be as realistic as possible so Francoeur stays and I won't sign Holliday, Lackey & Pineiro then trade for Halladay, Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

So the way I see it, we've got 3 primary questions to answer, first base, left field and starting pitcher. The rest is secondary.

#1 First Base: Adrian Gonzalez

For once, the media-driven, oversimplified solution is right. We simply CANNOT get a .266/.313/.427 line from our first baseman (MLB league average was .277/.362/.483). And I'm one who thinks Murphy will improve but it's just too much of a risk to take w/ our "stars" all getting older/closer to free agency. Nick Johnson is too injury prone, LaRoche has a decent bat but his consistently bad D kills his value, ditto Dunn and Prince isn't available. Forget the place-holding righty platoon partners. Get the best guy out there; Gonzalez is the perfect mix of power and defense that we need, he's the rare cheap superstar player, he is available and we'd have him through 2011. I know we're all suddenly in love w/ Ike but this way we can be conservative and give him 2010 in Buffalo and transition him in during 2011, plus we can always stick him in the OF if he forces his way up.

So the package to get Gonzo you ask? I'd go w/ Wilmer, Tejada, Parnell & the hard-throwing lefty Robert Carson. You've got the very young, very high upside (and IMO slightly overrated) prospect, the very impressive upper level prospect and a very strong pitching prospect and then the rookie who can hit 100mph (who I also feel is overvalued). That feels like enough but the package they turned down from the Sox this July was pretty huge so if they forced me I'd include Kyle Allen or even Jeurys Familia in place of Carson.

Plan B - If you can't make the deal, leave Murphy at first, spelling him w/ Chris Carter 1-2 days a week and make up the offense elsewhere (aka Holliday). If you can't get Holliday, go get a legit. platoon partner for Murphy (i.e. Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Dan Uggla)

#2 Left Field: Angel Pagan

This move is completely contingent on acquiring Gonzalez. Once you do that, you're not desperate for the offense and you can put the best defensive option in left, which I feel is important in Citi (Holliday is good but his D while underrated is consistently declining according to UZR and I personally just don't see him aging well in terms of mobility) . Back Pagan up w/ a very capable 4th OF in case of injury or extended slumps.

Plan B - Assuming we don't get Gonzalez, sign Matt Holliday; I hate to give in to Boras and give the big contract but we'd have no choice. If we lose a bidding war for him, try to bring back the always underrated Mike Cameron short-term, as a nice mix of power and defense. I don't like Jason Bay at all. All these scenarios move Pagan into the 4th OF role.

#3 Starting Pitcher: Rich Harden

I don't like any of the top tier options. My top pick was Webb but apparently ARZ will pick up that option. Lackey wants 5 years and w/ elbow issues and his age, I don't even consider it. Pineiro would be decent for 2, maybe 3 years but I see someone desperate (probably MIL) topping that to sign him & Chapman is WAY too risky. Like I've mentioned here before, Harden is obviously a big injury risk but basically he gives you a 50/50 shot at a ~4 WAR season and coming off a (pretty unlucky) down year, I'd say on a 1yr deal (roughly the same $7M salary he made in '09) I'd take that risk.

Because of that risk (or the risk of any of the 2nd tier SP options), IMO you've got to back up whomever you bring in w/ a Redding-esque contingency who you can stash in AAA or on the DL. Erik Bedard would serve this role perfectly, to bolster the rotation w/ a high caliber SP when he gets back on the mound around mid-season. I like Justin Duchscherer but I doubt he signs w/o a guaranteed spot in the rotation. A much less high profile backup option is Rodrigo Lopez who proved he may have something left this year as a #4-5 and would probably accept a job in Buff.

Plan B - I like Harang, but CIN probably won't take any of his $12.5M salary for 2010 (and possibly 2011). If that's true, I'd give a package of Evans and Michael Antonini to get him, no more. Sheets would be similar to Harden in that he'll probably get hurt but when he pitches he'll be great, and that's why you bring in a contingency guy. Randy Wolf wouldn't be horrible but long as he wants 3 years I pass. Inquire about a Nolasco trade but w/ a new stadium on the way that sounds unlikely. Here's a crazier trade idea: See if the Braves are interested in a Lowe-Castillo swap. After a poor '09 and $45M left on his deal, Lowe is definitely available and ATL lacks an everyday 2B as well as a top-of-the-order OBP guy. Then go out and sign Orlando Hudson. But a part of me feels like we might just be better off letting Castilo's contract expire instead of adding on another year and an additional $33M of payroll obligations attached to yet another risky asset. It's too much of an Isiah move.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The next stage is to fill the secondary holes: Catcher, 4th OF, backup MI & setup man

Catcher: Pudge

Despite the fact that Omar has always liked him, he can be had for a cheap, $1-2M deal ($1.5M in '09) while providing still solid defense and some pop from the bottom of the order. He batted .250 w/ 10 bombs in '09 and I'd hope for somewhat similar production in 2010 while giving Omir 2-3 days a week. Disclaimer: Not expecting a .300+ OBP from that duo, just give me 7-9 hrs and good D. I'd also hope he could play mentor whenever Thole makes it up, which I assume happens around mid-season after Omir turns back into a pumpkin.

Plan B - Dioner Navarro, if he actually does get non-tendered by TB this December. Fitting into Meddler's BABIP Bargain Bin, I'd look for a bounceback accompanied by a pay cut from his $2.1M salary. A .233 BABIP brought Navarro’s AVG from .295 (.349 OBP) in '08 to .218 (.261 OBP) in '09. Barajas would be serviceable as a similar player to Ramon Castro (good pop, rarely walks, often day-to-day) w/ a bit better glove; add him to the BABIP Bargain Bin (.234). I'd also talk to ARZ who is looking to deal the decent Chris Snyder but the words 'back surgery' and 'catcher' don't mix well so who knows what he'd give you; probably too risky for someone owed $12M over the next 2 years unless they'd pick a lot up. No way will I give declining Bengie Molina a multi-yr deal, even if he can still hit for power.

4th Outfielder: Matt Murton

We all know his deal: Murton has proved that he can play at a pretty decent level in the majors (career .345 wOBA) yet can't get a fair shot. Fangraphs compares him to Nelson Cruz before he blew up this year. Murton hits for average, his K/BB is always good, decent pop, he steals bases and he's a good fielder; the guy was even a first round pick out of a college baseball powerhouse, not that long back ('03). Seriously, what the hell is going on here, is he being black-balled? He would fit really well as a 4th OF/platoon partner for Pagan (Murton crushes lefties, Pagan righties) and could even steal the starting job. Nobody claimed him when COL put him on waivers so he's still a Rockie but I can't imagine it'd cost much to get him. If we had to trade, send them Eddie Kunz and be done w/ it.

When these 2 are together, great things happen...wait, that's not Obama. Well just trust me, they'd be good.

Plan B - Coco Crisp is another low BABIP victim (.247 in '09) who likely could be had for cheap (especially if/when KC drops his option); similar all-around solid game as Murton but w/ less offense and more defense. Off a down year I'd see if we could nab Fred Lewis for cheap.

Backup Middle Infielder: Adam Everett

Made $1M in '09, I'd offer the same and save the other million you'd spend on Cora. Now I admit I'm kind of a sucker for the veteran leadership stuff w/ Cora but money talks. Plus, Everett is a FAR better defender which MUST be a priority after what we witnessed on the infield in 2009.

Plan B - They'll probably bring back Cora which wouldn't be the end of the world but if they must have a veteran, I'd personally go for the cheaper/better version of Alex Cora, Omar Vizquel (made $1M in '09).

Setup/8th inning RP: JJ Putz

No, you don't pick up that $9.15M option. But once you drop it, try to bring him back for cheaper and hope he's healthy, especially because in this plan you've already traded Parnell so there aren't many other in-house options; even w/ Parnell we probably need him. I'm thinking the $2-3M neighborhood. I don't imagine he sees many better financial offers off the injury but in case he gets the tempting option to close from somebody else, throw him a performance-based option for 2011 to sweeten the deal. He doesn't need to be '07 Putz but just something moderately resembling that would be fine.

Plan B - Another decent option is Kiko Calero. As Fangraphs proclaimed coming off his 1.4 WAR 2009, Kiko's back but health is always an issue w/ him. If we can get him for a similar 1yr/$.5M deal as the Marlins did, I'd take him as my first option; he's risky but not any moreso than Putz. I also like the idea of Kelvim Escobar if he can be had for less than $3M on a 1yr deal. I said it last year and I'll say it again (and now I bet more people will believe me), Chan Ho Park STRICTLY as a reliever works.

Odds & Ends

Murphy is a super-sub, where he'd cover the corner IF spots, maybe cover the OF in a pinch and be the primary pinch hitter, basically taking Tatis' role where he'd see about 300 ab's; As an aside, I feel that there is no offseason scenario where both Pagan and Murphy can be in the lineup everyday, IMO it's one or the other
Jeremy Reed is cut; The last spot on the bench goes to a better defensive OF, basically sign Endy unless he's still not healthy in which case Dewayne Wise would work or Laynce Nix, who is a surprisingly good fielder w/ very good power
Hold onto Pat Misch and try to replicate the Darren Oliver, 2nd lefty specialist/longman role; However, he's on a short leash w/ Bostick waiting in Buff; I'd be tempted to bring back Oliver himself
The bullpen is already nearly filled out but the last spot is saved for a Rule 5 guy because it's stupid not to take advantage of this opportunity; an early favorite of mine is former Phillies top prospect Scott Mathieson, who is dominating the AFL and is no longer on their 40 man
Fernando, Niese, Nieve, Gee, Evans, Chris Carter & Thole begin in AAA, awaiting the call (as long as they're performing, obviously); Wilson Valdez is my first call if we need a MI, Anderson Hernandez can rot at Coca-Cola Field forever
Since you can't bat Pagan 2nd w/ Castillo there and his solid OBP is wasted in the 7-8 holes, I pull a LaRussa and bat him 9th; This way you capitalize on the typically unutilized above-average power that Reyes posesses as a leadoff man. In a way you've basically got 2 leadoff hitters

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Final Product: (click to enlarge)

Overall, I'm projecting this roster's cumulative salary (w/ all of the acquisitions as well as contractual increases, likely arbitration raises, etc) at just about $139M compared to the $149M that we had in '09. Obviously that figure changes if we shift from the Gonzalez/Plan A scenario to the Holliday/Plan B scenario. But either way I feel this team (if healthy of course) is a strong contender for a playoff spot.

But basically, I'm consciously trying not to break the bank here because:

I'm tired of this team wasting resources
After 2010 we will not be losing a lot of payroll like we did this offseason (it may actually go up based on arbitration)
Next winter will be a big one for legitimately great top-tier FA pitching (Halladay, Lee, Beckett, Webb & Vazquez) and I want to see the Mets very active in that market. Wouldn't it suck if we couldn't be because John Lackey was sitting on our DL w/ an elbow injury (which he's suffered both in '08 and '09) collecting $17M/yr?

So yeah, that's what I would do. Feel free to criticize.

Thoughts on Yankees vs. Phillies

2009-10-28T19:29:13Z

Many people think Yankees vs. Philies is the worst World Series match-up possible for a Mets fan to take a side in and still be able to look in the mirror the next day. Having read a few days of posts on the subject on various blogs, let's sum up the arguments.

(1) New York vs. Everyone Else

One school of thought says that you should root for New York, even if it's not the team you would prefer to see in the series. Advantage: Yankees

but:

This theory ignores all of the visceral reasons many New Yorkers hate the Yankees.

(2) If the Mets were in the World Series, many Yankees fans would root for them, especially, say, vs. the Red Sox.

Advantage: Yankees

but:

This is probably true, but many Yankees fans don't hate the Mets quite the same way that many Mets fans hate the Yankees. It's more like Yankees fans think of Mets fans the same way as they think of their uncool, somewhat annoying little brother.

(3) Most Mets fans find Yankees fans highly annoying.

Advantage: Phillies

but:

A number of posters claim that Phillies fans are, pound for pound, even worse...and are really just retrofitted Eagles fans who jumped on the Phillies bandwagon once they started winning. Advantage: Yankees

however:

Even if Phillies fans are more annoying per se, if you live in NYC you probably know two Phillies fans, while you work with, live next to, and get stuck on the D train with swarms of Yankees fans. Therefore, the Yankees fans will be more annoying to you. Advantage: Phillies

(4) Damn, the Phillies have some annoying players.

Shane Victorino, Jimmy "Criswell Predicts" Rollins, Cole Hamels, etc. With the exception of A-Rod, I don't think many Mets fans feel this way about individual Yankees players. Advantage: Yankees

(5) The Phillies have replaced Atlanta as the Eternal Enemy of the Mets

Advantage: Yankees

but...

It's only been that way for two years. Who cared about the Phillies one way or the other before then? Will you care about the Phillies once they start to suck again (and you know they will, even if it takes a few years)? The Yankees are the true Eternal Enemy of the Mets, and have been since the 1920's (since Mets fans were probably Brooklyn Dodgers or NY Giants fans back in the day). Advantage: Phillies

(6) You may think the only Real Baseball is played in the National League

Advantage: Phillies

(7) The Yankees pretty much bought their talent, while like them or not, the Phillies players are mostly "home-grown" or came from judicious trades and signings. Advantage: Phillies

but:

It's not like the Mets are a low-salary, small market team. Sometimes when talking about improving the Mets, the argument ends up amounting to "the Mets need to become more like the Yankees."

(8) George Steinbrenner is Satan

Steinbrenner started the "buy up everything that moves" theory of team formation, and while it doesn't always work, is largely responsible for the inflated salaries in baseball and the fact that the average person can't afford to go to the games anymore. Steinbrenner, an actual Republican, has turned the Yankees into the Republicans of baseball (as a friend of a friend on Facebook described them). Advantage: Phillies

Conclusion: Watch football! Jets or Giants? Um, let's not go there.

Poll

Who are you rooting for in the World Series?

Just curious as to why Met fans "hate" the Phillies

2009-10-28T00:30:04Z

I know its a rivalry. However, it is hardly Yankees/Sox, Giants/Eagles, etc. The Phillies have built their team the correct way. Howard, Rollins, Utley, Victorino, Hamels and Happ are all system built players. Jayson Werth was a garbage pickup from LA, and reached his potential in Philly. Ibanez was a solid pickup for cheap.

The Phillies didn't buy a championship, they did it through solid drafts and smart front office moves. Something the Mets should take note of. I've been to Philly numerous times, and their fans are great and I always have a fun time. Trading **** you, **** your mom, are always conversations I engage in while in Philly.

Charlie Manuel is a guy I would like to have a beer with. He's not the smartest man in the world, however, he is a genuine person. I do not hate the Phillies. Why do you?

It All Started With Torrealba...

2009-10-27T19:10:51Z

I was thinking about the Mets' woes recently. Well, I've been thinking about the Mets' woes constantly, to be more exact. It's what I do.

There are the usual jokes: what gypsy did they piss off? Is CitiField built on a Mohawk burial ground? Has the Satanic deal for '86 finally come due? Then I realized: it all started with the phantom Yorvit Torrealba signing. That's when we should have known there would be something very, very wrong with 2009. It was the first chip in the facade that covered the dysfunction.

Call 2009 Yorvit's Revenge.

'10 Mets Sep-Oct Schedule: Advantage Mets

2009-10-27T18:04:51Z

Interesting. The Mets play 17 of their last 22 games at home. That doesn't mean much right now, but in a fight for a playoff spot it may be a huge factor. As a comparison the Phillies play 9 of their last 22 at home, the Braves 12 of 22, and the Marlins 12 of 22. I won't even bother with the Nats. The Mets have a +8 advantage over the Phillies during this period, and +5 over the Braves and Marlins. It may not come down to final part of the schedule, but I thought it was worth pointing out.

Poem: There's Only One October Wish

2009-10-27T15:35:20Z

There's Only One October Wish

So now it is here, the Series we dreaded
Our season long gone, our hopes and dreams shredded
And we have a Choice more Susan Smith than Sophie
Just who is our preference for this Fall Classic trophy?
Some say "Let's Go Yankees!"; the words make me choke
I'd sooner root on those who made Wall Street broke
Still others see Philly as where we'd best fit in
Which makes sense, but only if you'd punch a kitten
So what's left to hope for? An injury or two,
Or an H1N1 outbreak from Bull's BBQ
But I hope for neither, I want both teams back again
So the healed Mets can beat them in 2010
My Fall dream is simple, my fantasy ode
Starts and ends with the winning team clinching on the road
So home fans, be they Yankee or Phillie
Shed their tears as they head into weather so chilly
Let me see fans torn apart from falling short of their goal,
Phillies fans oh-so portly, Yankees fans sans a soul
Others may wish for some A-Rod clutch-hitting horror
Or comeuppance for Victorino, that baserunning schnorrer
My October wish isn't nearly so wild
Just give me a close-up of one crying child

Amazing Vigil.

2009-10-26T20:01:01Z

On October 10th, I left the following letter enclosed in plastic & taped to my brick at the Citi Field Fan Walk ---

"Dear New York Metropolitans ---

Please accept my condolences for your dreadful 2009 baseball season, one that I am writing-off as never happening!

I am leaving this candle as a sign that, as a loyal & true Met fan, I am keeping a vigil until this baseball team comes back to life for the 2010 season.

Signed,

Loyal & true to the orange & blue!"

During the week prior to the last homestand against the Astros, we were sitting out in back of the house talking about the baseball playoffs and how nice it would have been if the Mets played during the season the way they finished-up with a sweep against the Astros. I was very happy to have been at Citi Field for the last game of the season (since I was there for the 1st one) and to finally see an end to the agony. We were talking about something to "Mets-orcise" Citi Field of the evil spirits hovering in & around it from May through the end of the season. One idea was to visit the ballpark periodically during the off-season, walk around it singing "Meet the Mets," "Take Me out to the Ballgame" ... perhaps even chanting a litany of the names of some of the Mets' heroes. Then out came the idea of a vigil ... bringing a flameless candle to Citi Field & placing it on my brick! At this point, I needed no further encouragement ... "the die had been cast!"

2 Saturdays ago, I made a pilgrimage out to Citi Field where I placed the above note & a flameless vigil candle on my brick (see picture) . Right after that, I had the opportunity to chat about this with WFAN radio personality, Steve Somers, on the air at approximately 4:10 PM ... he compared it to "sitting shiva!" I also sent an email with the picture to Q104.3 radio personality, Ken Dashow (Sunday morning "Breakfast with the Beatles" show), who loved it!

So now I am posting this as a "call to arms" to all the real Met fans ... a raly call to do the same ... in the hope that the NY Metropolitan baseball team & its organization come to realize that Met fans are the BEST fans in the world, that they deserve a better team (so much more deserving of a beautiful, new ballpark than the one that was fielded from May), that we can forget about the disastrous 2009 season as if it never happened by offering our condolences and looking forward to the rebirth of the NY Mets in 2010!

Let's go Mets!

Break up the core?

2009-10-26T07:05:40Z

Reyes, Wright and Beltran. Mike Francessa referred to these three as "the core." After last seasons debacle Francessa suggested that we break up the core through trade. Looking back on it, perhaps Francessa was a prophet. It's arguable as to whether the trade value on the Core will be any higher than it was last season. Beltran was injured for most of the season. The same for Reyes. While Beltran returned (a good thing), Reyes is still a question mark for '10. Wright had a weird and disappointing year. He hit over .300 but had a huge power lapse and poor plate discipline as evidenced by his career high in strikeouts. I personally believe that Wright's performance in '09 was not indicative of his consistent production for the past few years. His value is still high. Its Reyes and Beltran whose stock has taken a nose dive.

For arguments sake, let's say that Reyes has a bounce back year and Beltran remains relatively healthy in '10. If the Mets are in contention - fine. But if the Mets are playing sub .500 baseball come the trade deadline, do we attempt to move one or both of them? I would rather keep Wright. He is still young and his best years should be ahead of him. Beltran and Reyes could bring back both major league talent and prospects. If we're not going anywhere in '10, we should consider all options.

What is it going to take?

2009-10-23T03:26:48Z

When will the Mets learn?

I have been a Mets fan my entire life. I can remember back to the heady days of the last true Amazin' Mets team. This is a team who truely is in not only a World Series Championship drought, but a complete drought of talent. Sure we have Reyes,Wright, KRod and Johan, but it takes a lot more then that to win a division, let alone get to the big show in October and win it too.

Beltran,Delgado have both put up mediocre numbers since coming to Flushing, and thier frequent trips to the DL, one wonders how much more they have in thier tanks. The Mets essentially gave up on Pedro and what is he doing now? Going to the World Series with rival Philidelphia. The only plus was getting Billy Wagner off the shelf and moving him to Boston, but since Boston pulled a "one and out", Wagner is talking retirement. Makes you wonder if he's going to follow through or Brett Farve it, and change his mind in December and decide to make a comeback.

What was with trading Ryan Church to the Braves? and for Jeff Francouer? Only time will tell who got the better end of that deal.

Looking to the future, If Matt Halladay is within reach, GRAB HIM!!! The Mets need another solid bat in the line-up, and with the 4 Horsemen coming back next year, that being Reyes,Wright,KROD and Johan, and the free agent market, lets all hope that Omar earns his paycheck.

On a sidenote, If the Mets are looking to give Manuel the boot, I'll take the job for FAR LESS then you were paying him. Sure I've never managed anything but a Fantasy League team, but I won my League in my first year. Just food for thought.

Poll

Should the Mets dive deep into the free agent pool or should they continue to tread water?

DIVE DEEP

38 votes

Stick to the current roster and tread water

12 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

Bullish on 2010?

2009-10-22T16:51:36Z

What is a realistic forecast for the 2010 Mets season? Will the Mets be a contender or not? Is it possible for a Met fan to answer this question without a "hope springs eternal" mindset? Right now the state of the Mets is directionless and full of uncertainty. In the Godfather Michael Corleone removed Tom Hagan with the explanation of, "You're not a wartime consigliere." That question has to asked of Omar Minaya. Is Minaya a championship General Manager? Based on the last three years Michael Corleone would have removed Minaya long ago. But he's still there. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Are we to expect Omar to make different decisions or more of the same? The player situation is precarious. The pedigrees of Santana, Wright, Beltran, and to a lesser degree, Reyes, cannot be disputed. But Reyes will remain a question mark until he returns to the field. Wright's Jekyll and Hyde season; is this the real Wright or just an aberration? It can be argued that without Wright and Reyes playing at a high level in 2010, nothing else this team will do will result in a different outcome. I haven't even addressed the pitching, corner outfield, first, and second base positions. Based on the Mets previous track record, and the teams unanswered questions, it's hard to be bullish on the Mets near future. Omar & Co. need to address the future of the club and not take unnecessary risks for '10.

The Perfect Storm

2009-10-22T11:10:18Z

2009 will go down as the year of the Perfect Storm for the Mets. Not only does the team endure incredible injuries to it's core players. Not only does the season end with their being closer to last place than first. Not only do the prospects for a competitive run in 2010 looked strained, but now the Mets are faced with the ultimate indignity: it looks like the Yankees and Phillies will be in the World Series.

As a Met fan I could endure any other combination of teams. I could root against any team who played either the Phillies of the Yankees. But now I can't even do that. For the first time in my life I actually am apathetic about the World Series. It's as though the baseball gods have spit on the Mets grave.

It's going to be a long winter, and Port St. Lucie looks a long way off.

Community Off Season Part Five: The Setup Men

2009-10-21T01:23:03Z

The community has spoken, and John Maine will be the starter Opening Day, and Jon Niese will be the odd man out and will hone his skill some more in AAA. The Mets (Community) still have $2.1 million free.

Our next step in the Community off-season is addressing the bullpen, which I will do in parts due to the fact that there will likely be 7 pitchers in the MLB bullpen.

How this will work is that I am going to assume that K-rod is our closer, and organize the bullpen into the following:

Closer - Francisco Rodriguez

Setup Man

MRP

LRP

and we will decided whether the other two spots will be dedicated to "Lefties" or just miscellaneous relievers.

Right now, there are two setup men, so everyone in the poll will vote for their favorite candidate for the job and the Top 2 will have earned the job as the Community Setup Men. Options include:

Bobby Parnell: This young, in-house option is a player I'm sure we're all familiar with. As a rookie in 2009, his surface numbers don't look too hot: 4-8 record, 5.30 ERA, 4.69 BB/9 also. However, his numbers are deflated mainly due to his 8 starts, most of which ended up as atrocities. Parnell as a reliever posted a 3.46 ERA in 52 IP, striking out 43, and walking 23. In addition, his FIP finished comfortably under 4.00, and his tRA did as well. his GO/AO rate of 1.26 was also favorable, as was his 8 homers allowed in 88 IP. Even more in his favor is the fact that he had a .347 BABIP against. In terms of stuff, Parnell possesses a fastball that averages between 94 and 95 MPH, and a sharp slider to complement it. Occasionally he throws a changeup as well.

Sean Green: Green had an off year in his debut with the Mets, hitting three-year lows in FIP (4.42) and in tRA (4.55), however; Green's 2007 and 2008 speak very highly of him. In both of those years, he finished with his FIP under 3.80 and his tRAs were 4.34 and 3.97 respectively. His numbers were mainly altered due to a heightened walk rate from 2008, a career high 4.65 BB/9, and possibly because he's strayed away from his slider (used 18.9% in 2008, 7.1% in 2009) and the overuse of his curve (2.5% in 2008, 16.7% in 2009) perhaps this simple mistake will be easy to fix, and Green could return to his 2008 form, which would certainly be useful for the Metropolitans. Green isn't a gunslinger like Parnell, in fact his fastball for his career averages at only 89.1 MPH. Green gets by on groundballs generated by his sinking fastball and slider.

Jenrry Mejia: Who better to fill the setup role than this God of a man? He's got a mid-90s fastball with a ton of life, a very nice split-change and a curve that's coming along nicely. He dominated A+ ball at the ripe age of 19 and maybe a move to an MLB bullpen is the last step before he becomes our ace/closer. He's a groundball pitcher with a great mental makeup and its possible that from the bullpen his fastball could be even faster!

Kelvim Escobar: He's made exactly one appearance in the past two years, which is discouraging but may also make him willing to sign a 1 year, $2 million deal as a setup man. Escobar's always had killer stuff and he's looked alright in his recovery. Could be a very valuable guy to have in the bullpen and possibly a rotation replacement for any injured starters. His fastball in his only start of this year was averaging at a very encouraging 93.7 MPH. Escobar's deep repertoire consists of a fastball, curve, slider, changeup, splitter and cutter. Would be a bargain, but the Angels may very well re-sign him to be the #5 starter in their next rotation as they are losing Lackey.

I'm not sure of their availability but interesting targets may include Jose Arredondo and Chad Qualls, both of whom would command at least a few prospects in deals.

Sorry guys, there aren't many options I cant think of that would cost $2.1 million or less outside of the above. IF you have ideas, PLEASE post them in the comments section.

Poll

What is your solution for the Setup Man spot in 2010?

Bobby Parnell

23 votes

Sean Green

4 votes

Jenrry Mejia

5 votes

Kelvim Escobar

9 votes

Other

20 votes

61 votes | Poll has closed

BABIP Bargain Bin

2009-10-20T21:37:06Z

bumped--sam

One of the ways to find healthy bargains in an offseason market is to pick up some players who had poor seasons and hope they rebound. Of course, to do so, you have to be able to predict which players are due for some luck regression in a good way, and which players actually had a natural decline in talent. There are a few statistics we can look at to determine the "luck" factors with baseball players, the most popular of which is, of course, BABIP. So to find some interesting potential bargains, lets take a look at some of last year's BABIP losers and establish who might be available cheap and likely undervalued by the market. We'll stick to hitters for now, since most of the pitchers have already been covered in articles such as Sherman's Second Plan to Top Atlanta by Sam Page, Diamonds In the Rough and The Big Book of Available Pitchers by Robcast23, and Community Offseason Part Three: How to Solve the Rotation by METSMETSMETS.

Andruw Jones - .224 BABIP

Despite posting one of the lowerst BABIPs in the majors this year, Andruw is one of the cases where significant regression seems least likely. His BABIP has been way below .300 for five years running, below .250 in four of those years in fact, and .270 in the only exception year (2006). He seems to be one of those extreme outlier cases in the BABIP spectrum. Still, Rudy Jaramillo and the Rangers did manage to coax a .338 wOBA out of him in 2009, and although the Rangers only allowed him to play 17 games in the outfield, he did manage to rate at 2.5 UZR for that time. Historically, his glove has been tremendous, posting a crazy 22.4 UZR/150 in CF for his career. He was merely average in 2008, his last full season playing CF, but he has power, and despite the low BABIP trend in his recent career, .224 was still the lowest mark he's ever posted. There is potential value here, but its high risk.

Jody Gerut - .243 BABIP

A surprisingly interesting BABIP case, Gerut is not due for Free Agency just yet, but he is a non-tender candidate and someone the Brewers would likely be very willing to use as filler in a trade. Gerut had a surprising breakout season in 2008, posting a .365 wOBA in 356 PAs and posting a 6.0 UZR in 80 games in CF. The production just wasn't there this year, but the only real significant change was the BABIP drop, from .317 last year and a career mark of .280. His LD% actually improved in 2009, from 16.8% to 19.2%. He also features average to slightly above average power, a 14.1% HR/FB in 2008, 11.7% in 2009, and 10.7% career mark. The downside here is mostly about age (32 years old) and a middling BB%. For what he might cost in Free Agency, Gerut looks like he could very well be a solid value as an older, more power/less speed oriented version of Angel Pagan, perhaps a left handed compliment to someone like Nick Evans or Jeff Francoeur, and a solid stopgap to some of the younger talent on the farm.

Garrett Atkins - .247 BABIP

Atkins has been the source of much controversy, as he had spend the last few seasons considered a fringe star until seeing his stock plummet this year. He even upped his BB% this year over 10%, but a drop in power and BABIP caused his wOBA to fall all the way to .291. The drop in power, and the fact that his defense has always been pretty miserable at either corner should make Atkins one of the less enticing bargains on this list. Even in 2008, he was only 0.6 WAR player with a 10% HR/FB and .317 BABIP. That level of power won't cut it for a first baseman with poor defense, and the 7.3% HR/FB mark he posted this year really makes him the definition of tweener. He's only been above 2.5 WAR once in his career.

Chad Tracy - .251 BABIP

Though he's never put up the kind of offensive power production that Atkins has, Tracy may actually be at least as good an option at this point. He posted a .296 wOBA this year and very similar peripheral rates to Atkins across the board. The biggest difference is that Tracy is much closer to average defensively. Either way, I think this says more about the downside of what Atkins might be than any value Tracy might offer up. He still doesn't have nearly enough offense to play first base in anything other than a part time capacity, and there's no real reason to think he's a better option than Daniel Murphy at this point.

Hank Blalock - .252 BABIP

Much like Atkins, Blalock was considered a fringe star in one of the game's most hitter friendly ballparks earlier in his career, just to see his stock plummet due to injuries in 2007 and 2008 and poor production in 2009. Still, there are some interesting things to note about Blalock. First, he does have power, with a career .195 ISO and marks over .220 each of the last three seasons. Despite the low BABIP, he actually managed to increase his HR/FB in 2009 to 15.3%, and has a career mark of 13.0%. The .252 BABIP was also by far a career low, and in fact, he's never been below .296 in any other season besides his brief major league debut in 2002. The problem with Blalock is that he's something of a free swinger, though not an order-of-magnitude deviation from the norm the way Jeff Francoeur is. His BB% was a miserable 5.3% this year, and had fallen to 6.9% last year after hovering closer to 8-10% earlier in his career. He swung 48.8% of the pitches he saw, but perhaps even more troubling, his strikeout rate also jumped to 23.4%, the highest its been since 2004, and whiffed on about 23% of the pitches he swung at. Still, it seems plausible that the frustration of the low BABIP got to him, and unlike the previous two corner infielders, there's probably some legitimate upside here. He also seemed to adjust to first base nicely in 2009, posting a 2.9 UZR in 66 games in only his second year playing the position after shifting from third base. It seems there's a very good chance he'll be a better hitter and equal defender to Daniel Murphy in 2010, and probably wouldn't require the kind of financial commitment that would preclude Ike Davis from eventually taking over the position. He also won't turn 29 until November, so age isn't a real concern yet, though he has been fairly injury prone in his recent career.

Carlos Pena - .253 BABIP

Pena is the most appealing option covered so far from a talent-only standpoint. Unfortunately, he's not a free agent, and the Rays are one of the more intelligent organizations out there, so any discount on his services may be limited. Still, the Rays are also an organization that would like to clear some payroll space, and they may feel that Pena is both one of the better options for them to move and that they may have to give at least a slight discount for his .227 Batting Average this year and .247 mark last year. Though Pena never figures to be a high average guy, the low BABIP in 2009 was still a large outlier in his career scheme, with his career mark at .293 and previous career lows of .289 and .288 coming in 2004 and 2002, respectively. It also appears the low BABIP had nothing to do with a lack of hitting balls hard, as his LD% and power numbers both remained consistent. Even with the low averages, he still managed a .374 wOBA in each of the last two seasons, and has the kind of raw power that would play in any ballpark. The important question with Pena is going to be about cost in talent. If its not too much, he's certainly a player worth buying on.

The Value of a Perfect Baserunner

2009-10-17T22:58:38Z

Seeing as the Yankees gave a playoff spot to Freddy Guzman, who is basically a base stealer, I was wondering whether anyone had any ideas on the value of such a player.

Say this base stealer is as fast as Usain Bolt. He cannot get picked off, or thrown out stealing or thrown out going first to third. This player is also good defensively in the outfield, with great range and an average arm. However, he has no offensive value at all; the only way this player can get on base is by bunting... his plate discipline is worse than Jeff Francoeur's.

So, what is his value, in WAR, and how much would you pay him? Say he steals 100 bases, and scores every time he is in as a pinch runner?

Community Offseason Part Four: The Maine Niese situation

2009-10-17T03:08:41Z

Congrats community! You have just signed John Lackey to a 5 year contract worth $80 million! Out of 75 votes, Lackey received 24 of them, with Joel Pineiro in a distant second place with 13. The community has $2.4 million left to spend for the rest of its positions, and a key issue is coming up!

Odds are, the Mets have a rotation of 5 people, and with Santana, Pelfrey, Perez and Lackey all but locks for their jobs, John Maine and Jon Niese are left to fight for the fifth spot in the rotation. This decision effects the Mets payroll for relief pitchers, catcher and first base indirectly as well, as payroll is becoming more and more finite.

So here are the options:

1. Start John Maine, start Niese in AAA - The advantage of this is that the Mets have John Maine in the rotation who is more of a guarantee than Niese, who hasn't had significant time in the MLB and is coming off of a big hamstring strain. Maine is a pretty solid pitcher who is pretty much a guarantee to get at least a 4.80 FIP and 5.30 tRA with the ability to bring it up to 4.10 and 4.30. Maine's issues are with injury (40 starts in past 2 years) and with some declining numbers (K/9 from 2007 to 2009: 8.48, 7.84, 6.09; tRA: 4.27, 4.90, 5.32) and also his troubles with command (nearly a walk every 2 innings). Niese would always be available to fill in for Maine if this is the chosen scenario. keeping Maine would subtract $0.3 million from the available payroll

2. Start Jon Niese, move John Maine to the bullpen - The advantage here is that the Mets already have a solution to their ailing bullpen in house, and it also gives a good young pitcher a chance to start. John Maine always had trouble the second time through the order, and perhaps a move to the bullpen will help this and allow his high walk rate. It's the same hit to the payroll, and kills two birds with one stone. The question is, how much do you trust Niese?

3. Start Niese, trade Maine away - The principle to this is the same as #2. It's that Niese should be entrusted a rotation spot for possibly the entire year. The difference between this and #2 is that the Mets get rid of Maine, a solid pitcher who could have been beneficial in multiple ways, and instead free up $2.7 million of the payroll to perhaps add a catcher, 1B, RP or a bench player or two. In return, the Mets could see a decent return in prospects or perhaps another player who could be beneficial. If you vote for this option, PLEASE provide a possible team to take him and/or possible players in return

4. Start John Maine, move Niese to the bullpen

Poll

What do we do about the Maine/Niese situation?

Start Maine, Start Niese in AAA

52 votes

Start Niese, move Maine to bullpen

31 votes

Start Niese, trade Maine

6 votes

Start Maine, move Niese to bullpen

5 votes

Other?

12 votes

106 votes | Poll has closed

Diamonds In The Rough

2009-10-15T13:08:21Z

(note: bumped from FanPosts)

In the same vein as yesterday's Minor League free agents, these are the John Maine-esque, under the radar steals of typically cheap, young pitchers that for whatever reason become available. Whether it's a post-hype prospect (like Maine), a 4-5 starter that's out of options but won't make the 40-man or just a player that's being overlooked, usually this is someone who has fallen out of favor w/ an organization (a la Heath Bell) and often is available due to a logjam of pitching.

Similar to the Rule 5 Draft, transactions that involve such little input and can potentially derive such a great deal of output are definitely worth exploring and if it doesn't work, who cares? No, they won't make or break the season and you'll rarely uncover a top-of-the-rotation guy, but acquiring even a #5 for cheap has it's value. But be warned, each of these guys has their warts, that's what makes them "in the rough"/available.

More recent examples:

Fernando Nieve off waivers this season
Jason Hammel was a good one by the Rockies during ST
Tom Gorzelanny by the Cubs at the deadline
Gavin Floyd to the Sox as a throw-in for Freddy Garcia a couple years back

Andy Sonnanstine (TB) - After a losing his rotation spot twice this season, Sonnanstine has been passed on the totem pole by TB prospects Wade Davis and soon Jeremy Hellickson leaving little room in the TB rotation. And while he had a poor 2009, he did post a 3.91 FIP in 32 starts in the majors last season (4.38 ERA) and has been plagued by about a .340 BABIP in '09.

Manny Parra (MIL) - Ranked by BA as the Brewers #2 prospect back in '07, Parra has been somewhat of a disappointment since joining the MIL rotation. In '08 he posted an OK 4.38 ERA (4.18 FIP) but took a step backwards in '09 (6.36 ERA) and command has been an issue since his debut. However, look past the results and you'll find a pitcher w/ top notch stuff who dominated the minors (AND limited walks) and has posted BABIP's of .337 and .365 the last 2 years respectively. However, due to an organizational dearth of pitching the Brewers probably aren't ready to let him go.

Casey Janssen (TOR) - This 4th round draftee out of UCLA seems to have fallen into that long relief/spot start role that often signifies he's on the back burner as a long-term starting option. Yet Janssen possesses 4 major league average pitches and can reach 90-91mph w/ his sinker and posted a 2.88 career minor league ERA. But w/ guys like Romero, Richmond, Cecil, Litsch, Marcum, Rzepczynski & Mcgowan ahead of him in the pecking order, chances are he won't get his "shot" w/ TOR.

David Purcey (TOR) - Like Janssen, Purcey (the 16th overall pick in the '04 draft) is dropping on the organizational totem pole. Purcey never quite mastered the minors and has had trouble in the majors as well mostly due to serious command problems. However, as a lefty who can hit the mid-90's w/ a wipeout slider scouts have always dreamed about his potential and he did post a 2.69 ERA in 19 starts in AAA last year. This would be a nearly complete projection pickup, like Oliver Perez in '06.

Glen Perkins (MIN) - Taken 6 picks after Purcey in the 2004 first round, Perkins had good success in the minors that just hasn't translated to the majors yet due to a lack of stuff. His FB works in the high 80's but like most Twins pitchers he has good control. He posted a 4.66 FIP in 17 starts in '09 and w/ a patient team can definitely settle into the back of a rotation. Unfortunately for him, the Twins have a young group in Slowey, Baker, Blackburn, Duensing, Swarzak & Manship that makes him expendable.

Francisco Liriano (MIN) - We all know about this kid, who once looked destined for stardom. But after the arm surgery he just hasn't been nearly as dominant w/ his fastball declining, his once electric slider becoming very inconsistent and increased problems w/ walks. After this season's 5.80 ERA and his upcoming entrance into arb. years, look for the Twins to bank on Liriano's big name in a trade. Of course for a buy-low candidate the potential is high but it's fading away fast; no thanks.

Sean Marshall (CHI) - This former BA Top 10 Cubs prospect has settled into the swingman role for Lou. But having thoroughly dominated the minors to the tune of a 2.65 career ERA, this 6'7" lefty w/ a good (though not as hard as you'd think) sinker and decent command seems like he could handle starting. The Cubs gave him 43 starts between '06-'07 (w/ OK but not great success) but he only got 9 starts in '09. However, this cash-strapped organization probably doesn't want to lose one of it's cheaper players.

Dana Eveland (OAK) - Another big lefty w/ good stuff who had success in the minors (noticing a trend here?), Eveland finally got his shot last year making 29 starts w/ OAK and posted a 4.09 FIP. However, he lost his rotation spot after a tough start in '09, due in part to a .335 BABIP. He has always had command issues and w/ Oakland's good young crop of pitching (Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro, Braden, Gonzalez & Simmons) he could be available.

Tim Stauffer (SD) - Often ranking in SD's top 5 prospects, this 4th overall pick in '03 took years to get back to the majors after a solid debut in '05. He's had various arm injuries but still boasts the deep repertoire, low 90's FB and pin-point command that made him a first rounder, though he was most definitely an overdraft at the time. He posted a 4.67 FIP in 14 starts this year. The Padres are relying heavily on youth so he might not be available but after years of waiting they might just be getting tired of his act.

Charlie Haeger (LAD) - Why not bring in the the best knuckleballer since Tim Wakefield ? He's always posted decent #'s in the minors (3.87 career minors ERA, 3.22 ERA in 22 starts in AAA this year) and even translated that success to the majors as a starter. He even possesses a mid-80's FB (compared to Wake who averaged 72.4 in '09). His problem is that he can't pitch in relief and that's the role he's been given most often so he's looked bad. But Haeger is the perfect guy for this list, he probably won't work out but costs nothing and judging by Wakefield's success could definitely find a niche and pitch well for a long time.

Joe Martinez (SF) - This West Orange, NJ product (most famous for being hit in the head this spring) posted a 3.51 ERA in the minors including a 2.49 in AA in 2008. He doesn't blow anyone away with his stuff, throwing in the high 80's but works off a decent curve and a plus change and doesn't walk many guys. Problem for him is that there's just no room in the Giants good young rotation with guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner next in line and Martinez ranking as the Giant's 30th best prospect in '09 by BA. It reminds me a lot of the Brian Bannister situation. Fun Fact: He pitched at Seton Hall Prep. w/ Rick Porcello.

Jo-Jo Reyes (ATL) - Here's a longshot. He posted a 7 ERA this season before going down w/ a hamstring and has never really had much, if any, success in the majors. However, as this Fangraphs article points out, Reyes was posting about a 5 FIP in '09 w/ a great deal of bad luck going against him in terms of HR/FB and LOB%. He also saw a HUGE jump in % of swinging strikes in '09 after reportedly relying more heavily on his good slider. Still a definite reach at best.

Ian Kennedy (NYY) - W/ a 1.96 minor league ERA posted mostly at AA or AAA, you've got to put him on this list. He's always posted plenty of K's, usually less hits than ip and limits his BB's. The problem is that in his 60 majors innings, none of this has been true. My take has always been that he has great command of middling stuff and is very smart about pitching which is enough to dominate minor leaguers but it's a different story w/ the best hitters in the world. Maybe I'm right but he's currently dominating the AFL and those minor league #'s warrant another look; plus, in his highly publicized '08 failed shot at the rotation he did post a very unlucky .347 BABIP, especially when coupled w/ an incredibly low 11.6% LD rate.