You projected David Wright the other day, and here are the results.

	PA	BB	K	SB	CS	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
AA	682	103	101	28	5	35	0.326	0.424	0.571
Bill James	687	84	113	26	7	31	0.318	0.407	0.556
CHONE	652	82	96	25	6	28	0.317	0.410	0.544
Marcel	622	72	98	23	4	24	0.315	0.397	0.527
ZiPS	663	87	113	23	5	29	0.313	0.405	0.540
PECOTA	688	85	106	21	5	31	0.309	0.400	0.563

As usual, our best guestimates are more optimistic than any of the fancy computer projection systems. By quite a bit, we pegged all of Wright's rate stats ahead of everybody else. We expect him to draw many more walks and club a few more homeruns than even the most glass-half-full forecast out there. Whatever, he's already the top-rated fantasy third baseman, and he's about to play his age 25 season.

Question of the day: How does it feel to know that David Wright is a Met, will be a Met for a long time, is already one of the best all-around players in baseball and is still a few years away from his prime?

The chosen one. Project him.

Year	PA	BB	K	HR	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2005	657	72	113	27	17	7	.306	.388	.523
2006	661	66	113	26	20	5	.311	.381	.531
2007	711	94	115	30	34	5	.325	.416	.546

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

PA,BB,K,SB,CS,HR,AVG,OBP,SLG

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

660,95,115,30,8,35,.320,.410,.550

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end. Don't forget any of the categories; I will be forced to discard any incomplete projections.

With all of that in the back of your mind, let 'er rip.

Here are the results of the Delgado community projection from the other day. As is customary, I have provided the projections from a variety of forecasting systems to compare with our own.

	PA	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
AA	567	66	116	27	0.271	0.363	0.489
CHONE	585	62	114	27	0.262	0.354	0.479
Marcel	565	57	112	25	0.265	0.349	0.485
Bill James	593	73	123	30	0.269	0.373	0.508
ZiPS	566	61	112	26	0.257	0.349	0.476
PECOTA	491	48	91	21	0.265	0.343	0.471

For the first time, I think, our projections for a Met player haven't been terrible optimistic. I know that we root heavily for our own and often over-inflate our predictions for these guys, perhaps fueled as much by optimism as by wishful thinking. This time around, the Bill James projection is actually quite a bit more optimistic than our own, and anything approaching a .269/.373/.508 season for Delgado would be a sure sale to just about any of us.

It's hard to talk about Delgado at all right now without mentioning his hip impingement, though his prognosis has improved of late. He has been goosing up on cortisone shots and anti-inflammatories, as well as the odd spin in the whirlpool to help accelerate his return. The signs have been positive, and there's a chance he may even play in a game this week.

Delgado's most immediate understudy, not counting Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson, would be Michel Abreu, but even he has been unable to avoid the plague of injuries that has been sweeping across Mets camp like murrain. Abreu sustained a strained right hip flexor that should keep him out of action for at least a few days. Scott Hatteberg might be available. Tony Clark is still out there. Uhh... Rico Brogna might be kicking around somewhere.

Thoughts? What are the Mets' best options if Delgado is unavailable/ineffective for some significant portion of the season?

I talked a bit about Carlos Delgado yesterday, and how you'd have to be Kreskin to know what to expect out of him next year. His power could continue to dissolve mysteriously into the ether otherwise known as baseball twilight, or he could bounce back a bit and post numbers more in line with his natural decline. The latter could very well represent an improvement over his 2007 performance, and as I noted yesterday, anything resembling league average production at first base will be extraordinarily uplifting for the Mets' offense.

So, now it's your turn. Look into your crystal ball, flip over your tarot cards, wiggle your fingers around frantically and try to figure out what the near future holds for Mr. Delgado. Any hope at predicting the future requires at least a pedestrian understanding of the past, so here is what Delgado has done over the last three seasons.

Year	PA	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
2005	616	72	121	33	.301	.399	.582
2006	618	74	120	38	.265	.361	.548
2007	607	52	118	24	.258	.333	.448

Two things to note here: the 36 point dropoff in batting average from 2005 to 2006, and the 100 point decline in slugging last season. His batting average only fell seven points last year, so the slugging decline was almost strictly a loss of power. In other words, Delgado's regression in OBP and SLG from 2005 to 2006 can mostly be attributed to his batting average decline; we can't say the same thing about his performance last season.

Delgado is a fun and interesting case for the community to project, so have at it. Project Carlos Delgado's 2008 performance in the following categories:

1. Plate appearances
2. Walks
3. Strikeouts
4. Homeruns
5. Batting average
6. On-base percentage
7. Slugging percentage

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

PA,BB,K,HR,AVG,OBP,SLG You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

5800,55,125,25,.255,.350,.430

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end. Don't forget any of the categories; I will be forced to discard any incomplete projections.

With all of that in the back of your mind, let 'er rip.

Last week I solicited your projections for Johan Santana's first season in Queens. I had actually intended to ask for them quite a bit sooner but I thought it prudent to wait for the trade and requisite contract extension to be finalized before possibly jinxing the whole thing with a premature post about it. Twenty of you submitted your best guesses for Santana's performance next year, which is the most we have received for any projection to this point.

Your estimates ranged from "awesome" to "absurdly awesome", with the staunchest pessimist projecting a 3.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

System	GS	IP	H	BB	K	HR	W	L	ERA	WHIP	FIP
AA	33	217	176	48	240	22	19	6	2.71	1.03	2.98
Bill James	32	216	174	57	228	24	16	8	3.00	1.07	3.33
CHONE	--	217	192	55	219	25	--	--	3.36	1.14	3.44
Marcel	--	193	164	48	198	23	14	9	3.31	1.10	3.44
PECOTA	32	225	184	60	239	25	16	8	2.94	1.08	3.32
ZiPS	34	230	200	47	236	29	18	8	3.21	1.07	3.40

As usual, I have included the results of the fancy projection systems alongside our own, and though we are very optimistic about Santana's future, the other systems are bullish as well. PECOTA is the only one that has been updated to reflect Santana's trade to the Mets, so we might reasonably assume that the other systems might shave a quarter run or more off of their ERAs were they augmented to adjust for the weaker league, friendlier turf and superior defense that Santana will enjoy next year. It's extremely encouraging that our line is so similar to PECOTA's, only differing somewhat significantly in walks allowed (our mark is 20% below PECOTA's).

For anyone who is interested, I used 3.2 as the league factor in calculating FIP.

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training on Thursday, though David Wright is already there.

You might have noticed all of the hullabaloo last week when the Mets did something or other. It wasn't because they came to terms on a one-year deal with lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano, though that's certainly good news. The principals in a trade for Johan Santana were agreed upon last Tuesday afternoon, though it took three-plus days of contract negotiations and a physical exam to set everything into stone. Santana's a Met, and it's easy to get carried away with projections for him upon his arrival at Shea and his ensuing battles with the weaker lineups of the National League.

Here we go, then. Punxsutawney Phil showed us what's what on Saturday, but now it's time for us to put on our prognosticating hats and take a stab at predicting Santana's performance in 2008. Here's what he has done over the past three seasons with the Twins.

Year	GS	IP	H	BB	K	HR	W	L	ERA
2005	33	231.2	180	45	238	22	16	7	2.87
2006	34	233.2	186	47	245	24	19	6	2.77
2007	33	219.0	183	52	235	33	15	13	3.33

We will project Sir Johan in the following categories:

1. Games started
2. Innings pitched
3. Hits
4. Walks
5. Strikeouts
6. Homeruns allowed
7. Wins
8. Losses
9. ERA

And the customary disclaimer:

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

20,140,130,45,135,16,10,6,3.50

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end.

And... go!

Here are the final community projections for John Maine.

	GS	IP	H	BB	K	HR	W	L	ERA	FIP
AA	33	203	175	70	189	24	16	9	3.72	3.89
Bill James	31	200	190	81	169	26	12	11	4.05	4.49
CHONE	--	177	166	68	153	21	--	--	3.97	4.27
Marcel	--	163	146	63	141	21	12	9	3.98	4.40
ZiPS	30	178	168	66	148	23	13	10	4.15	4.33

I don't know if we're homers, eternal optimists, or something else entirely, but we keep pacing the projection systems by a pretty hefty margin. The AA prediction for Maine's ERA -- 3.72 -- is a full quarter of a run better than even the most optimistic computer projection. Maine will be 27 this year and could reasonably be expected to improve upon his performance from a year ago. I wouldn't be terribly concerned with the non-AA FIP projections. Maine has managed to maintain a consistently low hit rate and, by extension, an abnormally low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). FIP doesn't look at hits at all. It considers only walks, strikeouts and homeruns. Maine has seemingly showed an ability to limit his BABIP beyond what might normally be expected, and the result is that his ERA will often exceed (read: be lower than) his FIP.

The key for Maine will be maintaining his impressive strikeout rate from 2007 while lowering his walk rate. His walks were a bit high last year, and he definitely has some room for improvement there. His homerun rate is fine, especially considering his extreme flyball tendencies. If he can stay on the field and give the Mets somewhere around 200 innings next year he should be extremely valuable given his indentured servant-like salary.

The Mets may have bungled when they acquired Kris Benson at the 2004 trade deadline, but Omar Minaya spun straw into gold when he flipped Benson to the Orioles following the 2005 season. In return, the Mets got Jorge Julio (who would eventually be traded to Arizona for Orlando Hernandez) and John Maine, the latter of which was a key component of the Mets' surprisingly strong starting rotation in 2007.

Maine whiffed 180 batters in 191 innings last year and, despite fading a bit ERA-wise in the second half, managed to improve his strikeout rate as the season went along. He will turn 27 in May and is under the Mets' control for four more seasons.

Year	GS	IP	H	BB	K	HR	W	L	ERA
2005	8	40.0	39	24	24	8	2	3	6.30
2006	15	90.0	69	33	71	15	6	5	3.60
2007	32	191.0	168	75	180	23	15	10	3.91

Whether or not the Mets finagle a trade for Johan Santana, John Maine figures to be a very important player in 2008. Can he be more consistent? Can he maintain his high strikeout rate? Is his remarkably low hit rate an aberration, or will he come back down to earth?

Let's project Maine's 2008 performance in the following categories:

1. Games started
2. Innings pitched
3. Hits
4. Walks
5. Strikeouts
6. Homeruns allowed
7. Wins
8. Losses
9. ERA

And the customary disclaimer:

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

20,140,130,45,135,16,10,6,3.50

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end.

And... go!

Earlier in the week I solicited your projections for Jose Reyes. We all know that Reyes had a bit of a down year with the bat, though you wouldn't have predicted that outcome after watching his performance in April. He continues to improve in the walk department, but he didn't hit for a whole lot of power. Here's what you guys predicted.

	PA	BB	K	SB	CS	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
AA	666	79	77	53	19	17	0.300	0.371	0.471
CHONE	693	60	72	67	17	12	0.293	0.355	0.438
Marcel	653	53	74	59	14	12	0.292	0.351	0.442
Bill James	728	59	75	69	20	14	0.289	0.348	0.442
ZiPS	747	74	79	71	20	15	0.285	0.356	0.444

Well, we're nothing if you're not optimistic. The .371 OBP from the AA forecast destroys even the most optimistic of the available forecast systems. Ditto our .471 SLG projection. Interestingly, the projection systems may be well below our largely unscientific estimates with respect to Reyes's rate stats, but they actually had much higher projections for his stolen base numbers. Perhaps we all just feel that Reyes needs to hold back a bit on the basepaths, and I think that may be reflected in the SB/CS numbers we put out there for him.

The good news is that even the most conservative forecast -- Bill James's .289/.348/.442 -- represents an overall improvement over Reyes's actual performance in 2007. Everyone recognizes his potential for greatness, but I think he needs to improve his focus on the field and his maturity in general. That may sound like a silly thing to say, but Reyes really fell apart attitude-wise towards the end of last season, and I like to think that someone with a bit more experience wouldn't have let that happen. These may sound like the ramblings of an old-fashioned baseball coot, but with little else of substance to go on here, I'm left with supposition and hearsay.

I looked back at Jose Reyes's 2007 season in Novemeber, but now it's time to look forward to 2008. We had a lot of fun predicting Pedro Martinez's future forecase last week, and Reyes is as good a candidate as any to kickstart the batter projections.

Year	PA	BB	K	HR	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2005	733	27	78	7	60	15	.273	.300	.386
2006	703	53	81	19	64	17	.300	.354	.487
2007	765	77	78	12	78	21	.280	.354	.421

Reyes greatly improved his plate discipline in 2007, and his walk rate has climbed steadily the past two seasons. His power fell off considerably last year, and many question whether all of his attempted steals are actually benefiting himself and the team when all is said and done. What do you guys think?

Project Jose Reyes's 2008 performance in the following categories:

1. Plate appearances
2. Walks
3. Strikeouts
4. Stolen bases
5. Caught stealing
6. Homeruns
7. Batting average
8. On-base percentage
9. Slugging percentage

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

PA,BB,K,SB,CS,HR,AVG,OBP,SLG

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

720,75,85,65,18,15,.285,.350,.440

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end. Don't forget any of the categories; I will be forced to discard any incomplete projections.

With all of that in the back of your mind, let 'er rip.