Community Projections
2009 Community Projections: J.J. and K-Rod
IP/ERA/K/BB for both of them.
Putz:
| System | ERA | IP | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | 3.11 | 55 | 57 | 19 |
| CHONE | 2.95 | 58 | 70 | 21 |
| Marcels | 3.44 | 55 | 56 | 20 |
| ZiPS | 2.59 | 59 | 71 | 19 |
Frank:
| System | ERA | IP | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | 2.73 | 66 | 88 | 32 |
| CHONE | 2.57 | 70 | 89 | 31 |
| Marcels | 3.27 | 66 | 70 | 29 |
| ZiPS | 2.34 | 73 | 91 | 35 |
5 comments | 0 recs
2009 Community Projections: Ryan Church
| System | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| PECOTA | .254 | .335 | .421 |
| Bill James | .275 | .348 | .457 |
| CHONE | .258 | .342 | .428 |
| Marcels | .270 | .346 | .445 |
| Oliver | .271 | .341 | .462 |
PA/1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SB
18 comments | 0 recs
2009 Community Projections: John Maine
| System | IP | ERA | K | BB |
| PECOTA | 107 | 4.16 | 89 | 45 |
| Bill James | 145 | 3.98 | 122 | 62 |
| CHONE | 143 | 4.03 | 124 | 60 |
| Marcel | 149 | 3.96 | 132 | 63 |
IP/ERA/K/BB
9 comments | 0 recs
2009 Community Projections: Fernando Tatis
| System | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | .253 | .330 | .429 |
| CHONE | .255 | .337 | .429 |
| Marcels | .276 | .347 | .454 |
| Oliver | .259 | .330 | .444 |
5 comments | 0 recs
Community Projection Results: David Wright
You projected David Wright the other day, and here are the results.
| PA | BB | K | SB | CS | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 682 | 103 | 101 | 28 | 5 | 35 | 0.326 | 0.424 | 0.571 |
| Bill James | 687 | 84 | 113 | 26 | 7 | 31 | 0.318 | 0.407 | 0.556 |
| CHONE | 652 | 82 | 96 | 25 | 6 | 28 | 0.317 | 0.410 | 0.544 |
| Marcel | 622 | 72 | 98 | 23 | 4 | 24 | 0.315 | 0.397 | 0.527 |
| ZiPS | 663 | 87 | 113 | 23 | 5 | 29 | 0.313 | 0.405 | 0.540 |
| PECOTA | 688 | 85 | 106 | 21 | 5 | 31 | 0.309 | 0.400 | 0.563 |
As usual, our best guestimates are more optimistic than any of the fancy computer projection systems. By quite a bit, we pegged all of Wright's rate stats ahead of everybody else. We expect him to draw many more walks and club a few more homeruns than even the most glass-half-full forecast out there. Whatever, he's already the top-rated fantasy third baseman, and he's about to play his age 25 season.
Question of the day: How does it feel to know that David Wright is a Met, will be a Met for a long time, is already one of the best all-around players in baseball and is still a few years away from his prime?
3 comments | 0 recs
Community Projection: David Wright
The chosen one. Project him.
| Year | PA | BB | K | HR | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 657 | 72 | 113 | 27 | 17 | 7 | .306 | .388 | .523 |
| 2006 | 661 | 66 | 113 | 26 | 20 | 5 | .311 | .381 | .531 |
| 2007 | 711 | 94 | 115 | 30 | 34 | 5 | .325 | .416 | .546 |
Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:
PA,BB,K,SB,CS,HR,AVG,OBP,SLG
You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:
660,95,115,30,8,35,.320,.410,.550
Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end. Don't forget any of the categories; I will be forced to discard any incomplete projections.
With all of that in the back of your mind, let 'er rip.
9 comments | 0 recs
Community Projection Results: Carlos Delgado
Here are the results of the Delgado community projection from the other day. As is customary, I have provided the projections from a variety of forecasting systems to compare with our own.
| PA | BB | K | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 567 | 66 | 116 | 27 | 0.271 | 0.363 | 0.489 |
| CHONE | 585 | 62 | 114 | 27 | 0.262 | 0.354 | 0.479 |
| Marcel | 565 | 57 | 112 | 25 | 0.265 | 0.349 | 0.485 |
| Bill James | 593 | 73 | 123 | 30 | 0.269 | 0.373 | 0.508 |
| ZiPS | 566 | 61 | 112 | 26 | 0.257 | 0.349 | 0.476 |
| PECOTA | 491 | 48 | 91 | 21 | 0.265 | 0.343 | 0.471 |
For the first time, I think, our projections for a Met player haven't been terrible optimistic. I know that we root heavily for our own and often over-inflate our predictions for these guys, perhaps fueled as much by optimism as by wishful thinking. This time around, the Bill James projection is actually quite a bit more optimistic than our own, and anything approaching a .269/.373/.508 season for Delgado would be a sure sale to just about any of us.
It's hard to talk about Delgado at all right now without mentioning his hip impingement, though his prognosis has improved of late. He has been goosing up on cortisone shots and anti-inflammatories, as well as the odd spin in the whirlpool to help accelerate his return. The signs have been positive, and there's a chance he may even play in a game this week.
Delgado's most immediate understudy, not counting Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson, would be Michel Abreu, but even he has been unable to avoid the plague of injuries that has been sweeping across Mets camp like murrain. Abreu sustained a strained right hip flexor that should keep him out of action for at least a few days. Scott Hatteberg might be available. Tony Clark is still out there. Uhh... Rico Brogna might be kicking around somewhere.
Thoughts? What are the Mets' best options if Delgado is unavailable/ineffective for some significant portion of the season?
7 comments | 0 recs
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