Interviews
Blogger Smackdown: Goat Riders of the Apocalypse

Ever since baseball went to three divisions per league in 1994, the Mets and Cubs only get to meet a couple of times a year. I was fortunate enough to get some perspective on the Cubs' fast start from Byron Clarke of the inimitable Cubs blog Goat Riders of the Apocalypse.
Eric Simon:: Despite a terrific season last year with Iowa, Geovany Soto is a career .280/.358/.426 hitter in the minor leagues. He's off to a fast start with the Cubs this season (.304/.403/.537). Tell me a bit about him and where you think he'll end up, offensively and defensively.
Byron Clarke: The Soto situation is a little a-typical. He was cruising through the minors, probably not going to make it, and then last year, it apparently just clicked for him. He had a tremendous year, got a September call-up, impressed then, impressed this spring, and has continued to impress in the first tenth of the season. I'm fairly certain he's not as good as his early line, but the Cubs do not have a history of strength at #2, so anyone who's halfway decent is given a hero's welcome. At the end of the season, he'll probably have a .290/.370/.500 line with around 20 home runs. Defensively, he's passable. He's not going to throw a lot of runners out, but he's apparently a decent game caller.
ES: What's the status of Alfonso Soriano? Where does his gaffe rank among the stupidest sports injuries of all time? Worse than the Sammy Sosa sneeze-spasm? The Clint Barmes dear meat incident? The Bill Gramatica jump-n-tear?
BC: The whole Soriano situation is a little surreal. It's as freak-an-injury as a sneeze-spasm, and it's given all the Soriano haters a good opportunity to get in their cracks. As for where it fits in the pantheon of stupidest injuries? Somewhere between sneeze-spasms and 'washing my truck.' Still, it's not as bad as Jason Williams driving his motorcycle into a lightpost and ending his Bulls career.
ES: Give me your early impressions of Kosuke Fukudome.
BC: He's a complete player. Very fundamentally sound. He has a great approach at the plate. He's patient, will take the pitch and drive it to any part of the field. He runs well, might steal a base if the pitcher's got a high leg kick, and can throw out runners at the plate, especially if they don't run hard. He started off very hot, has cooled down a little, but the fundamentals are still there. For a Cubs team that has struggled for years with over-aggressiveness, his patience at the plate sets a great example for the rest of the team. He sees about 4.5 pitches/appearance. He has some power, but that's more of a bonus. He ought to be hitting in the #2 slot, but the Cubs have been doing well with him at #5.
ES: A lot of Cubs fans I've spoken to were happy to see Mark Prior go. What are your thoughts on the matter?
BC: To me, the whole situation was unfortunate. If events had occurred in a vacuum, I would have been in favor of giving him one more shot in Chicago, but the world is not a vacuum. About two years ago, the local media decided to make Prior 'a bad guy,' and Mark didn't handle it well. (The media also tried this with Kerry Wood, but he handled it much better and is now even more beloved than before.) Anyhow, relations between the fans and Prior, and Prior and the team soured. It was appropriate to let him go, but I'm saddened by the whole parting. I think Mark has some excellent and productive years ahead of him, and I'll be sad to see those occur in someone else's uniform... but I'll be one of the Cubs fans that feel that way. In the end, he was done in by high expectations, high salary, and poor relations with the local beat writers and talk radio guys.
ES: Ryan Dempster has a great ERA so far, but he seems to have gotten pretty lucky in allowing just nine hits in 19.0 innings. His 13-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio is unspectacular. Are you bullish or bearish on his future as a starter?
BC: Sell. He hasn't had a good season as a starter since 2000, and as long as I keep repeating that fact, he's been pitching well. So, I will state once more for the record. Ryan Dempster has no business in the Cubs rotation. His early results are a fluke, even if he's been our second best starter.
ES: Kerry Wood: Closer. The results have been good to this point. How does he look, and how is the rest of the bullpen shaping up?
BC: Wood looks better and better with each outing. He struggled a bit at first, allowing runs in two of his first four or five games, but he's looking like a shutdown closer, much like people expected he would be. Currently, Carlos Marmol is the eighth inning set-up man. I've commented a few times that Marmol is the Mariano Rivera to Kerry Wood's John Wetteland. Marmol has been shaky at times, but still dominant. We've also got Bobby Howry who struggles in April, but will be excellent down the stretch, Michael Wuertz (reliably solid), Jon Lieber (ought to be in the rotation), Sean Marshall (also should be in the rotation), and Kevin Hart (unheralded but solid.) To jinx us, I would say that the bullpen is a real strength of the team... but if the starters can't get it together, that won't last for long.
Thanks, Byron. You can check out my responses to his questions at Goat Riders of the Apocalypse.
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Blogger Smackdown: We've Got Heart
Prior to a series it's fun to get some perspective from the other team, and the best way to do that short of following Paulie Walnuts around with a microphone is to speak with that team's fans. For the Nats I was fortunate enough to get some questions answered by the fine ladies of We've Got Heart, Kristen, Stephanie and Lindsey.
Eric Simon: For the second time in three offseasons Jim Bowden got the best of Omar Minaya. What do you think of Lastings Milledge so far?
We've Got Heart: There have been moments that I've been impressed and moments where it's clear he's learning. He will steal a base or get a hit but then get out by making a silly base running move. I can forgive these mistakes in April, but if it continues throughout the season and costs us crucial outs, it will be much harder to forgive. He's also made some errors in the field by letting a single turn into an easy double, but it was reported that he's apologized to teammates for his mistakes. I think that shows signs of his willingness to learn and desire to improve. That said, he looks like he could be everything we were promised. He's enormously talented.
ES: The Nats won their first three games and then dropped a niner in a row before beating Tom Glavine and the Braves (thanks!) on Sunday. What can we expect out of this particular Nats’ team?
WGH: Going into the season and certainly after the first three games we all had high hopes. Obviously, starting pitching has been an issue, but I think a lot of that has to do with Lo Duca. He was absent for most of spring training with a knee injury and has little time to learn the pitchers. One of the problems with John Lannan's most recent start was that he veered off the game plan. As a young pitcher, it's hard to believe that he was calling his own pitches and honestly we didn't see him calling off Lo Duca. Every team goes through slumps and the optimist in me says that this is a slump and things will turn around. Guzman and Johnson are on fire and if we can just get a couple more guys hitting consistently, we'll be just fine.
ES: Talk to me about the new ballpark. Just a tiny bit nicer than RFK, I’m guessing.
WGH: The park is phenomenal. It's a nice mix between Citizen's Bank in Phily and PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The sight lines are great, though the ticket prices are steep. There's a lot of new local food partnerships that give it more of a Washington identity. It's hard to tell how the park will play just yet. It's smaller and more intimate than RFK. The Marlins and the Braves had no problem sending balls out of the park, but the Nats haven't capitalized on it, yet. Mets fans, be sure to come down to catch a game!
ES: When did Cristian Guzman get on the juice? Dude has seven extra-base hits so far. He has three fewer homeruns than the entire Mets’ team. What gives?
WGH: Guzman was another of Jim's projects. He was great in Minnesota, then came to DC and just couldn't hit the ball in 2005. He was hurt for all of the 2006 season. Guzman was fantastic at the start of 2007, showing the kind of player he could be, but was injured again by June and out for the rest of the season. He's had a rough go of things, but is back healthy this year and on fire. Maybe he's finally comfortable here and all of the pieces are in place for him. I'm a big fan of his offense but I'm not sold on him being the lead off guy just yet. With the way he is hitting he might drive in a bunch more runs if he batted a few spots lower.
ES: Jesus Flores is already better than Paul Lo Duca at everything. Why won’t Bowden just make him the starter? Why throw bad money at Lo Duca?
WGH: Jim Bowden had his heart set on bringing Lastings Milledge to the Nats. Last winter he dealt away a great defensive catcher in Schneider to make the trade. Prior to Schneider being traded, the plan was for a platoon behind the plate with Schneider and Flores, with Flores learning in the bigs from an experienced teammate. When Schneider left, the plan changed. Jim was quick to fill the spot with Lo Duca. I think he was dazzled by his previous offensive numbers and really wanted Flores to get at-bats every day in the minors. To give Lo Duca a backup, he brought in Johnny Estrada. It's pretty clear that Lo Duca will probably be a waist of money. Just days after being signed, his name came out in the Mitchell Report, which would have decreased his value. His other character flaws and indiscretions aside, fans are already tired of his attitude. We're a rebuilding team, not a contending team. Having Lo Duca mouth off every night about his frustrations just doesn't help, especially when his numbers don't match his talk. Sending Flores to the minors isn't as much about him learning and playing everyday as it is about Bowden not wanting to admit he made a mistake in signing Lo Duca and Estrada. My guess is that Flores is in triple A for a month or two. Once it becomes overwhelmingly clear that Lo Duca is washed up, Flores will be back as a starter with Lo Duca or Estrada as an occasional backup. I think the Lo Duca deal was one of the worst moves the Nats made this winter.
ES: I want Manny Acta back. No question here; just a comment.
WGH: We love Manny, though he had some questionable decision making in that 9 game skid. We hope he's here in Washington for a long time.
Thanks, ladies. You can read my responses to their questions at We've Got Heart.
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Interview: Jonathan Mayo
Jonathan Mayo is a well-respected columnist for MLB.com and MiLB.com, and the author of a new book entitled Facing Clemens: Hitters on Confronting Baseball's Most Intimidating Pitcher. Jonathan was gracious enough to exchange some e-mails with me and agreed to answer some questions about himself, his book, and the Mets' farm system.
Eric Simon: Tell me about yourself? What was your childhood like? What are some of your earliest memories of baseball?
Jonathan Mayo: I grew up in a New Jersey suburb, not far outside of New York City, in a town called Verona (most famous resident: actor/comedian Jay Mohr). Typical childhood, really. My earliest memory of baseball is of my dad pitching to me in our front yard when I was four years old, a tennis ball and wiffle ball bat, I believe. He was amazed I could hit the ball across the street at that age. Unfortunately, I peaked shortly thereafter. As far as the big leagues, I remember the 1977-78 Yankees being the first team that really entered my consciousness (sorry, Mets fans, when you're 7 years old, you're a bandwagon fan).
ES: What sorts of jobs did you have before becoming a professional baseball writer? What events led to the writing gig with MLB.com and MiLB.com?
JM: I've pretty much always wanted to be a writer covering sports of some sort. My first job out of college was at a short-lived newspaper geared toward women called HER New York. It folded after about five months. I worked for '94 Cup Daily, covering the soccer World Cup here in 1994. Then I did PR for a while -- that didn't work for me -- before landing a job at the NY Post. I was there for nearly four years -- maybe some of your readers vaguely recall a fantasy baseball column called "The Rotisserie Files" in the mid-late 90s? Anyway, in April of 1999, MLB.com was still a very small, in-house shop and they were hiring their first writer. That turned out to be me and the rest, as they say, is history.
ES: Was the decision to focus the majority of your baseball writing on minor leaguers a conscious one, or did it come about somewhat organically?
JM: A little of both. When I first started at MLB.com, I was the only writer, so I covered everything. Then, when the company grew I still was a national writer covering the Major Leagues. I went to All-Star Games, World Series, Opening Series in Japan, you name it. As the company grew and evolved, it didn't make as much sense for me to continue doing that kind of stuff and there was a need for good Minor League coverage. I'd always liked the prospects, so it was an easy switch. It's just grown over time with more and more coverage of the Minors and the draft.
ES: Talk to me about your new book, Facing Clemens: Hitters on Confronting Baseball's Most Intimidating Pitcher. What other projects had you considered before settling on this one? Was Facing Wally Whitehurst ever a candidate?
JM: Wally finished a close second. But I think hitters are still so intimidated by him, no one would talk to me. I had been talking to the publisher about a variety of book ideas, from ones on scouting to biographies. This came about over the course of our discussions. They had done two books of this ilk on boxers, "Facing Ali" and "Facing Tyson." Baseball seemed like it could fit the concept and Clemens seemed to be the perfect choice at the time.
ES: As someone who generally writes articles in the 1,500 word range, how did you approach writing a 300-page book? Did anything surprise you about the whole process, and is it something you would like to do again?
JM: Yes, I'd like to do it again. I was surprised I felt that way right after finishing this one. One good thing about the format is that each chapter is somewhat self-contained. It doesn't have to have any real literary flow. So I looked at each chapter as one long story. Heading into it, I must admit, I was concerned about writing that much. But then I finished the Cal Ripken Jr. chapter and it was 10,000 words and I said to myself, "OK, I can do this."
ES: You spoke to a dozen or so current and former major leaguers for this book, with a chapter dedicated to each, including former Mets Dave Magadan, Darryl Hamilton, Gary Carter and Julio Franco. What was the interview process like: were they mostly conducted over the phone, in person, et cetera?
JM: Almost all of them were done over the phone. Some were set up during the offseason. Once the season got underway, I did get several current players -- Chipper Jones, Luis Gonzalez, Juan Pierre and Ken Griffey Jr. -- in person. It sometimes took some doing to set up the various phone and in-person interviews, but once they were, every player was very generous with their time and their memories.
ES: Carter must have been an interesting one, as he played his whole career in the National League and Clemens was in the American League. Their only confrontations came in the 1986 All-Star game and World Series. Small sample sizes notwithstanding, what was Carter's take on Clemens?
JM: Well, anyone who knows Carter at all knows he's not lacking in self-confidence. So that added a nice flavor to the chapter. Remember that Clemens was still establishing himself and 1986 was the first truly great season he had. Carter's take mostly was that he was impressed, but certainly not awed. Even though he didn't do anything against him in the All-Star Game or that memorable World Series, Carter recalled not having a "wow" factor after facing him. He certainly couldn't ascertain back then that Clemens would go on to do what he did in the game.
ES: Mike Piazza would have been a huge get for this book, but I understand he didn't want to be involved, preferring to put the whole ordeal with Clemens behind him. You got Darryl Hamilton instead, who is actually a good friend of Clemens's and closely witnessed the 2000 World Series bat-throwing incident. What did Hamilton have to say about facing Clemens himself, as well as Clemens's famous run-ins with Piazza?
JM: Yeah, I tried like heck to get Piazza, but can't force a guy to talk. Hamilton ended up being really interesting, I thought, for a number of reasons. One, he's a really smart guy and was the type to never miss anything on the field, whether when he was playing or watching from the bench. He faced Clemens early in his own career and like many, admitted there was some "Clemens aura" working those first couple of times against him when he was batting. They became friends later on with both living in Houston and Hamilton tells a terrific story about when he pinch-hit against Clemens in that bat-throwing game. Let's just say Clemens was concerned with Hamilton for a hilarious reason...but you'll have to buy the book to find out the rest of the story.
JM: As for Piazza, Hamilton said that everyone knew Clemens would do something when they faced each other in 2000 interleague play. He honestly doesn't think Clemens was trying to hurt Piazza when he plunked him in the head. But Clemens needed to assert dominance and reclaim the plate again. How he did it was not OK and the Mets were ready to charge the field, but Piazza, if you recall, was down for the count. In the World Series, Hamilton certainly doesn't excuse Clemens's behavior -- like most of us, he really doesn't understand it -- but it's clear the Mets clubhouse was not pleased that Piazza chose not to charge the mound. Even though it allowed him to stay in the game in a World Series, they thought it more important from a leadership standpoint for their franchise player to say, "Enough is enough. I have to take care of business here."
ES: In researching the book, you figured to get a copious supply of "Clemens was really tough/Great stuff/Intimidating" feedback. What did you find out about Clemens -- either the pitcher or the man -- that really surprised you?
JM: Pitching-wise, it wasn't so much anything surprising, but just wonderful detail on how Clemens evolved as a pitcher with his split-fingered fastball and later on, a cutter. Whatever you think now about him, he definitely became a more complete pitcher as time wore on. I was surprised how many people considered him a friend off the field, even guys who weren't teammates. Hamilton, as you mentioned and Ken Griffey Jr., especially, painted a much different picture of Clemens as a person than I expected to get. And the last chapter, with his son Koby, gave me some great insight into him as a parent, stuff that most people don't get to hear about.
ES: Did Roger Clemens ever instruct Brian McNamee to inject you with HGH before a big article deadline?
JM: I think you are misremembering that.
ES: Give me your best sales pitch: why should people buy this book?
JM: Regardless of your opinion of Roger Clemens today -- and I know that's likely changed over the past several months -- there is no question he was one of the most dominant and intimidating pitchers of his generation. Really, more than a generation with a career that spanned a quarter-century. The challenge of facing him, whether he was clean or had indeed been injected with anything, remains the same. This book really lets you get inside the heads of some of Clemens' top opponents and gives you a sense, like there's not been before, of what it must be like to earn a living trying to hit a small white ball hurled in your direction at ungodly speeds by Roger Clemens.
ES: What's your take on the package the Mets sent to Minnesota for Johan Santana? Too much, too little, somewhere in between?
JM: I think the Mets did pretty well in this one. Yes, they gave up four of their top prospects, but truth be told, most of them wouldn't rank that highly in other organizations. The fact they managed to not trade Fernando Martinez and get Santana means to me they did pretty well. The guys the Twins got will help them, but I think they would've been better off going with the reported deals the Red Sox or Yankees were offering.
ES: Fernando Martinez has been ranked by various prospect lists as high as #10 (Keith Law) and as low as #51 (Kevin Goldstein). Why the gulf, and what are your thoughts on F-Mart right now and two or three years from now?
JM: Well, I had him at No. 17. Right now, he's all about projection and what he might become. If people are extremely high on him, he's going to be a top 20 kind of guy. If not, he'll drop. The fact is, he really needs to play and turn projection into performance this year. He's still really young, but the star will start to fade if he doesn't start producing a little like people think he can. Scouts still love his tools, especially his swing. I think, assuming he can now stay healthy, in three years he'll be a starting outfielder in the big leagues on the verge of becoming an All-Star.
ES: We've been hearing a lot about Wilmer Flores, a 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop the Mets signed last summer. What can you tell us about him?
JM: One of a bumper crop of international signees -- boy, the Mets have been active in Latin America -- the Mets absolutely love Flores. He's very athletic and looks like he should be able to hit. Of course, he hasn't played a game in the United States yet, but certainly looked good during instructs in the Dominican. The Mets have not shied away from pushing young signees once they come stateside -- just look at Savannah's roster at the beginning of last year. Flores could get a shot to land with that full-season team this spring, but he also may hang around extended and then go to Brooklyn, where he's still likely be the youngest player in the New York-Penn League.
ES: For those who don't know, can you explain the draft slotting system that the commissioner's office encourages teams to follow? Are the Mets' days of adhering to the recommended slot bonuses -- and suffering for it, perhaps -- over?
JM: In short, the "slotting system" are suggested bonus levels for each pick in the draft. The Commissioner's office sends out a guideline for what they feel is the appropriate bonus for any pick in the draft, starting at No. 1 overall and on down. Many teams, as you'd imagine, ignore the slotting suggestions and go over it (the Tigers come to mind with Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello the last couple of years). It's not a mandated system and there's really nothing the Commissioner's Office can do to stop a team from going over slot other than grumble (There are some instances when a team takes a chance on a tough sign later in the draft and then wants to give that player first-round money, that the team will ask MLB if it's ok). I think there's the possibility the Mets would consider going over slot if the right player was there. They've got two first-round picks this June and they are going to want to make them count. To be fair, it was just in 2005 that the Mets went way over slot at No. 9 overall when they took Mike Pelfrey and gave him $3.55 million and a Major League contract, so it's not like they've never done it.
ES: With Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber gone and Mike Pelfrey a big leaguer (presumably), the Mets' top pitching prospects are mostly guys who were drafted last year. Who do you like out of that crop?
JM: Eddie Kunz is the guy who'll ge there the fastest. I know his AFL stint was less than impressive, but he was gassed by that point. Look for him to move quickly. I love that the Mets took some chances on some high school arms. Even though the system's not deep, they're the kind of organization that can afford to put in the time and be patient developing some of them. I think Nathan Vineyard already has a pretty nice idea of how to pitch and will become even better when he adds velocity to the fastball. Scott Moviel is more of a project -- I thought he might go to NC State like Andrew Brackman -- but the Mets got him signed and his GCL debut was encouraging. With a guy that big, a lot can go wrong mechanically, so they'll probably have to take it slow with him. But the end result could be worth the wait.
Thanks, Jonathan.
You can pick up Facing Clemens: Hitters on Confronting Baseball's Most Intimidating Pitcher at Amazon.com or through Jonathan's website, which also includes additional information about the book as well as recent media appearances he has made.
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Blogger Smackdown: Atlanta Braves
We normally do this sort of thing in-season, but considering the recent defection of Tom Glavine back to Atlanta and offseason rumors aplenty, we thought this would be a good time to check in with our friend Martin Gandy of Talking Chop to see what's happening in Brave-land.
Eric Simon: Andruw Jones has been entrenched in centerfield in Atlanta for eleven seasons, but he is almost certainly moving on to greener (as in money) pastures. What does 2008 hold for the Braves at Andruw's old position? Will Andruw be missed?
Martin Gandy: Andruw's defense will certainly be missed, regardless of what Jayson Stark says about his defensive skills. As an offensive player Andruw was misplaced in the batting lineup - he is not a cleanup hitter. He's more suited to batting sixth or seventh, where his endless swing-for-the-fences mentality can pose less of a detriment to a lineup. Even when he was hitting 50 homeruns two years ago, he had a terrible batting average with runners in scoring position, and still wasn't that clutch of a hitter. Because we got Teixeira last year I don't think we'll miss Andruw one bit in the lineup. Our top prospect, Jordan Schafer, is a center fielder and might take over in Atlanta as early as next year. So there is a lot of excitement about the next great player to roam center for the Braves.
All of this is not to say that Andruw, as a person, will not be missed - he will be missed. You can't have a player in one uniform for a decade and not show a fondness for him. His absence will be noticeable when the Braves take the field next year (remember, he played in just about every single game for 10 straight years).
Eric Simon: Chipper Jones: Still a phenomenal hitter, still good for 30-40 missed games every year due to injury. I'm a big fan, but he was pretty classless in running his mouth earlier this month vis-à-vis David Wright's Gold Glove. Where do you think that comment came from?
Martin Gandy: Chipper is a rare player who will usually tell you exactly what's on his mind. He certainly has a point about Wright winning the award, but we know that this award, like all the awards, are sometimes flawed in who wins them (remember Palmeiro winning the GG in 1999 despite only playing 28 games at first - the rest as a DH). Chipper went off this year about a bunch of things, the most notably was the absence of Questec at Turner Field which led to a host of different strike zones from game to game. He and Smoltz also had a public tiff that went on for several days.
I don't know that his comment about Wright was classless. It was more a comment directed towards the people who vote for the award and their laziness in selecting someone for the award who was statistically not the best choice (or even the third or fourth best choice).
Eric Simon: Talk to me about Tom Glavine. Are you happy to have him back? Does it feel as if he never left? What are your expectations of him for 2008?
Martin Gandy: I will probably be on the fence all season about having Glavine back. On one hand he's probably better than anything we threw out there as a third starter last year. On the other hand, he's on the wrong side of 40 and could turn bad very quickly (I think you guys saw this with him last September). I expect him to give us about 180 to 190 good innings of just under 4.00 ERA while collecting anywhere from 12 to 16 wins. I think there's also a chance he could win close to 18 games. As a third or fourth starter in our rotation, he'll be facing easier competition than he's faced for the last several years, and that could lead to more victories.
It does feel like he left, and it will be weird for a while seeing him back in a Braves uniform sitting next to Smoltz on the bench during games. But we all know that Glavine wanted to end his career in Atlanta, it was only a matter of whether it was going to be last season or this season.
Eric Simon: What do the Braves have to do to bridge the gap between the 2007 club and a 2008 postseason appearance? They figure to lose some ground in centerfield (despite Andruw's sub-par 2007), but should make that up with a full season of Mark Teixeira. Where else can they improve?
Martin Gandy: As I mentioned above, Andruw was more of a hindrance in our lineup the past few years than an asset. Mark Teixeira is the cleanup hitter we've lacked since the first season we had Galarraga. What he might do next year is scary - in just 54 games with the Braves last year he drove in 56 RBI. I also expect him to increase his homerun total dramatically in a more homerun friendly park like the Ted (and a more homerun friendly league with smaller parks). With him in the middle of our lineup, our offense should be much like it was last year, if not more consistent.
With Glavine returning via free agency and Hampton likely returning from injury as well as the addition of a young Jair Jurrjens and with Jo-Jo Reyes a year older our stating rotation should be much better and much deeper next year. That's what the Braves rode to all those division titles and I think it's clear that's what this team is relying on once again. We will be spending around $50 million dollars on our starting rotation in 2008 - well over half of our teams total salary.
Eric Simon: Who is closing for the Braves in 2008? How do you feel about that?
Martin Gandy: Rafael Soriano will be our closer, and he was pretty darn good in that role last year. He had some trouble in the setup role giving up homeruns, but when he was used as a closer he seemed to be right at home. Beyond him, we should get Mike Gonzalez back around the All-Star break, so we'll have a closer from each side of the mound for the second half of the year. I feel good about our bullpen next year - better than I've felt the last few years.
You can check out my responses to Martin's questions at Talking Chop.
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Blogger Smackdown: Florida Marlins
To fill us in on the state of the Marlins I turned to Craig Strain of the excellent Fish Stripes. Here we go.
1. What's going on with Dontrelle? Rough patch? Regression to the mean? League catching up to him? A combination thereof?
Craig Strain: Really, none of the above, but a rough patch would be the closest. At the start of the season someone in the organization, presumably the pitching coach, decided that if Dontrelle slowed down his pitches they would have more movement. In the past he threw his fast ball in the mid-nineties and the bright idea was that when he threw harder his pitches straightened out. This is actually true in that when he got all ramped up and threw in the upper nineties everything started to straighten out.
So the stupid idea was borne to have him throw in the mid-eighties, while this increased the movement on his pitches he couldn't control anything. And therefore the walks increased and base runners were constantly on causing him to continuously pitch out of the stretch.
In short, they tried to fix what wasn't broken and screwed everything up. He will be fine, he just needs to be himself again.
2. Hanley Ramirez is a beast at the plate, but most defensive metrics rate him rather poorly with the glove at shortstop. What are your impressions of his defense watching him on a regular basis and where do you think he'll ultimately wind up?
Craig Strain: The boy is only 23 and is still learning the game. Hitting comes naturally for him while fielding is something he has to work on. Hanley really isn't that bad in the field but he sometimes loses concentration. Since he is more comfortable playing short, I doubt the team will move him to another position anytime soon. Ramirez has the tools to be a good shortstop but it is just going to take some time and coaching.
3. Miguel Olivo: six unintentional walks in 354 at-bats, though he's going to have to slow down his pace if he hopes to break Shawon Dunston's modern-day record of eight unintentional walks in a full season. Can Miggy do it?
Craig Strain: Yes! Olivo is allergic to walks and avoids them like the plague. As you're watching the series, take note, if the Mets pitchers will throw him a first pitch strike, he will swing at it. In his mind there is no need to get in the position where a walk is a possible outcome.
3. What's the story with the new stadium deal? Bring us up to speed.
Craig Strain: Sadly, there isn't much to report on the stadium front. The team for the seventh-year in a row didn't get funding from the state and are $30 million short in their quest to build a stadium. Presently they sit and wait to see if the University of Miami will vacate the Orange Bowl and opt to play their games in Dolphin Stadium and thus leaving the location unused. The Orange Bowl is owned by the City of Miami and has already been earmarked for renovation. Some feel that if the Hurricanes head north, that money could be used to close the Marlins stadium gap. At which point the Orange Bowl would be razed and a new stadium for the Marlins built in its place.
But really, who knows. Some members of the city council have indicated the money is for the Orange Bowl and if the renovation doesn't take place, the Marlins aren't going to get it.
Nothing like being loved.
4. How has Mike Jacobs been doing? His numbers are down from a year ago and right now he profiles more like a backup first baseman. Where does he project?
Craig Strain: Recently, not so good. He just set the team record for at bats without a hit going 0-for-33. He broke the streak last night. One of the reason that Jacobs numbers are down is due to the fact he is facing lefties this season. Last year he platooned with Wes Helms and Helms batted against the lefties. It is true that he needs to show that he can be everyday first baseman if he going to have longevity at the position. Given that he is young and this is the Marlins, who know a couple of things about raising young players, he still has a couple of years to prove he can be an everyday first baseman.
5. Talk to me about being a Marlins' fan. The team obviously has a lot of great young players, but ownership seems committed to not spending any money on anything. What does that say to the loyal fan base, or to the front office even?
Craig Strain: I love being a Marlins fan. But I will say this, it's not for the timid. I can't say I really blame the ownership for not wanting to spend money at this point. The Marlins remaining in South Florida doesn't appear that secure to me. The present stadium lease runs out after the 2010 season and after which the team will be homeless. Since there is no stadium revenue stream presently, or in the foreseeable future, it is understandable that the ownership is leaning to the cheap. That said, the fire sales haven't help much with the fans. Just when you really start liking a player, they get shipped off. Oh, the Marlins do have fans, in case you wondering, but most stay at home on weekday nights and watch the games on television, due to the stadium being so far away from almost everywhere.
I don't think the rest of the front office has as much of a problem with the going on the cheap. If you will remember, almost everyone in front office came over from Montreal before MLB took that team. In some respects, the Marlins have closer ties to the now defunct Expos than the Nationals do. So the ownership not spending money, ain't nothing new.
Welcome to Marlins fandom.
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Blogger Smackdown: Atlanta Braves
In eager anticipation of this week's Mets/Braves showdown at Shea, I asked a few questions of Martin Gandy of Talking Chop. He was kind enough to oblige.
1. Let's start with current events: How do you feel about the acquisition of Mark Teixeira, and how hard was it to let Salty go? Assess the trade from both a short- and long-term perspective.
Martin Gandy: I, like many Braves fans, didn't initially like the prospect of letting Salty go, but as we thought about it more and saw who we were getting back I think the fan base as a whole warmed up to the trade and then came to embrace it. Salty might be a really good catcher or first baseman in a year or two, but we needed an impact bat now. I like this from a long term (if two years is long term) perspective since I think we'll lose Andruw Jones to free agency at the end of the year - Teixeira is a better replacement in the cleanup spot. If you or your readers would like the long version of all this, I speak to it in this post.
2. Andruw Jones: What's the deal? Not much of a contract year performance spike to say the least. What affect does this have on his likelihood of remaining a Brave after this season?
Martin Gandy: As I say in the answer above, I don't think Andruw will be a Brave next season. He is far too erratic of an offensive player to give a long-term multimillion dollar deal to, and his defense is not something you should pay extra for like it once was. For the first two months of the season his swing was completely out of whack, and while he's recovered some, he is still prone to bouts of wild swinging without regard to the situation.
3. Nice bounceback year for Tim Hudson. Walks and homeruns are way down from last year's dismal campaign. Is he doing anything differently?
Martin Gandy: His control is infinitely better. Last year he was getting beat because he couldn't locate consistently. This year he seems to be able to put it just about anywhere he wants it.
4. Is there a superstar hitter who flies as far under the radar as Chipper Jones does? Everyone talks about the starting pitchers, but Jones has been a tremendous hitter in the middle of the Braves' lineup for more than a dozen years now. What has he meant to the franchise?
Martin Gandy: What he means to the lineup is very clear when he's not in it. It seems like everyone else in the lineup tries to do too much when he's not there. I think he flies under the radar due to his injuries the last few years. That and the move he made to the outfield really hurt his standing since he was near the top of the list of great offensive third baseman, but lost in the mix amongst great offensive outfielders. Of course, I'm sure he doesn't fly under the radar of Mets fans!
5. If there is one weakness that may ultimately cause the Braves to fall short of the playoffs this season, what is it, and what could they do (or have done) to address it before it's too late?
Martin Gandy: Starting pitching! It was supposed to be the thing we were targeting before the trade deadline, but there just weren't any quality starters available, and what was available came at such a high price that the team decided to improve other areas. If we suffer one or two injuries to starters, we may be out of the race. I do think they made the right decision in not selling the farm, especially one prospect, for mediocre starting pitching, but I just can't believe that nothing was available. That may really come back to haunt us.
You can check out my responses to Martin's questions at Talking Chop.
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BP's Kevin Goldstein on Luis Castillo Trade
I asked Baseball Prospectus's resident prospect guru Kevin Goldstein what he thought of the farmhands the Mets gave up in yesterday's trade with the Twins for Luis Castillo:
[Drew] Butera is a fine defensive catcher, but can't hit, he's a backup at best, and even that will take some work.Whatever Castillo brings to the team, it sounds like the Mets got their money's worth. The Mets expect Castillo to be in the lineup tonight when the Mets open their series in Milwaukee.[Dustin] Martin is a guy putting together a good year, but he's been a bit old for the level. He does have some tools and might have 4th outfielder possibilities. They didn't give up much.
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Blogger Smackdown: Milwaukee Brewers
To get a feel for what kind of team the Mets will be facing over the next few days, I sent a few questions to my buddy Jeff at Brew Crew Ball so that he might set me straight.
1. The Brewers jumped out to an early NL Central lead on the strength of their 16-9 April. Since then, they have gone just 41-40, and watched their division lead shrink to practically nil. Am I just cherry-picking stretches of games here, or will the real Brew Crew please stand up?
Jeff Sackmann: You're cherry-picking, but you're not alone. If you split the Brewers season right down the middle, the records are pretty much the same. The Crew is still on pace for an 85-90 win season, which is what most people predicted for them in the spring. It doesn't help that Ben Sheets is out for a month or more, but Yovani Gallardo has been filling in admirably.
2. What do you make of the Cubbies? They spent a lot of money last winter, much of which was thought to be unwisely allocated. How do you see the final nine weeks shaping up?
Jeff Sackmann: For all the noise over the last few weeks, these slumps and streaks have put the Brewers and Cubs right about where I predicted they'd be before the season started. The Cubs aren't going to keep up their torrid pace--their starting pitching just isn't that good, and their bullpen is still questionable as well. But I do see this going down to the wire, with the Brewers coming out on top by 2 or 3 games.
3. Talk to me about Ryan Braun. He seems to be on the fast track to this year's ROY, and he has shown prodigious power both in the minors and with the big club in 2007. What is his ceiling, and where do you see him settling in defensively (his RZR at 3B is .592, second-to-last in the NL)?
Jeff Sackmann: Right now, the word ceiling doesn't seem to apply. I keep expecting him to crash down to earth, but it hasn't happened yet. He's not the next Pujols, but he's doing a good impression of it. Maybe Miggy Cabrera is a decent comp, only with a slightly different development pattern, since Braun is already 23. Defensively, believe it or not, he's improved over his minor league showing. He'll never be a gold glover, or even an average guy at third, but I think he'll stick at the hot corner through his arby years and work his way up to respectability. For a poor fielder at a corner, he makes a decent number of impressive plays.
4. What's the deal with J.J. Hardy? He hit .323/.371/.628 in 178 plate appearances thru May 16, but has been atrocious since, batting .234/.295/.335 in 237 plate appearances since, which is downright NEIFI!-esque. He's still just 24, but what's going on there?
Jeff Sackmann: Beats me. He's had a couple of minor injuries in that stretch, and it wouldn't surprise me at all given the Brewers track record if one of the injuries was worse than reported. The second stretch is much worse than expected, but it's worth pointing out that everyone--including JJ--was shocked by his early production.
5. Rumor has it you've starting writing for six new blogs this week alone. Are there any projects in the pipeline that you are particularly excited about, that will help to further ubiquify™ the Sackmann™ brand? LittleLeagueSplits.com™ a possibility?
Jeff Sackmann: Man, I hope LittleLeagueSplits.com never happens. I am digging deeper in the available minor league data, and hope to have some new toys to show for it in September and October.
You can read more of Jeff's work at the aforementioned Brew Crew Ball, as well as Hardball Times, Beyond the Boxscore and Heater, and don't forget about MinorLeagueSplits.com and CollegeSplits.com.
UPDATE [12:13pm]: Jeff has posted my responses to his Q&A over at BCB. Enjoy!
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Blogger Smackdown: Washington Nationals
In anticipation of the bitter Mets/Nationals four-game deathmatch this weekend, I enlisted the help of Kristen and Steph from 3 Girls With Heart to fill in the blanks about their beloved Washington Nationals.
1. Talk to me about Manny Acta. He was the Mets' third base coach for a little while before becoming the Nats' manager this season, and all indications are that he is a very progressive baseball man, at least in terms of his analytical approach to the game (getting on base, not giving up unnecessary outs via bunting or stealing). What can you tell us about him?
Kristen: I can say, for certain, that Manny Acta was the absolute right choice for this team. He is all about the fundamentals and made it clear early in the season that the team would fight hard everyday despite all the predictions for a miserable season. He won't hesitate for a second, for example, to pull a starter in the first inning for failing to run through first-base. The most important thing is probably his optimism and the camaraderie that has built around him in the clubhouse. We trust him; we like him. We're really happy he's here.
Steph: Manny has been just what this team needs. His philosophy of "preach and teach" has helped this young team sort of get back to the basics of the game. It's evident that our team respects him; the guys listen to him, and his coaching and positive influence have helped the Nats greatly this season.
2. The Nationals were expected to lose well over 100 games this season and, while they haven't been great, they are on pace to lose *only* 90-95. To what do you attribute their over-performance?
Kristen: I think our over-performance speaks to how ridiculous those predictions were - and those predictions were made before we lost all our starting pitchers and a short-stop to injuries. That actually is kind of how our blog started - to counter the overly-negative tone of everyone following the Nationals in the spring. Dmitri Young also contributes to that over-performance. It would be hard to win ballgames without D's bat. He's definitely been a pleasant surprise for us. Our starters have been frustrating, but the bullpen has been pretty outstanding (despite being overworked). Steph: Again I think a lot of this has to do with the positive attitude Manny Acta brings to the team. I also think that we have a team made up of a lot of young guys who truly love the sport. These guys play with heart no matter what the situation. Take when we lost to the Dodgers earlier this season, we lost the game 10-0, but the Nats did not quit and came back the next day to beat the Dodgers 11-4. It also doesn't hurt to have a few veteran players like Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard on the team. Both of these guys have been huge offense producers for us this year.
3. What's going on with Ryan Zimmerman? He was the runner up for Rookie of the Year last season and, though he has been better in July, his overall numbers are down significantly, on-base and slugging percentages in particular.
Kristen: His numbers are indeed down and it's tough to watch him battle through it. I don't think anyone doubts that this young guy is going to be around for a long time - hopefully as the cornerstone of our franchise - driving in runs and making spectacular defensive plays. He's making adjustments; pitchers are learning how to handle him this year and we haven't had a great lead-off guy this season (like Soriano) to give Zimmerman RBI opportunities. He will definitely surpass his HR total (20 last year, 15 already this year) and his average is finally starting to climb (finally getting back to .260). He's so much fun to watch at 3rd though. Manny recently said Zimmerman saves more runs then he could ever produce - and he's only 22.
Steph: Zimmerman is a special kind of player, one who is going to be in the game for years to come. That sort of makes his current numbers a little less important. It's got to be tough to follow such an incredible rookie season. I agree with Kristen, he's only 22 and he's only going to get better.
4. What is your overall impression of Jim Bowden? What kind of general manager is he, and what is his plan for turning the ship around?
Steph: No doubt about it Jim is a smart guy who knows baseball. The long term plan for the team is to build with young players who will stay in DC for awhile. Bowden made a great deal last year for Lopez, Kearns, and Wagner. He is keeping things pretty quiet for this year's upcoming trade deadline, but I am sure Bowden has something up his sleeve.
Kristen: I have to say, I have a lot of confidence in Stan Kasten - and the entire front office. Stan's work in Atlanta helps me to trust in his long-term plan for the Nationals. Jim Bowden is an interesting guy. The two seem to work well together and they've both invested themselves in a long-term rebuilding plan to cut payroll this year, secure great draft picks, spend a great deal of time cultivating young prospects and building the team from the bottom up. In the past, I've thought Bowden was trade-happy and I worried that his eccentric nature and flair for excitement would get in the way of good strategic moves. We were pleased with last year's near-deadline deal with the Reds (brought us Kearns, Lopez and Wagner), despite grievance charges from the Reds. Jim's also a GM that is really interested in giving people second and third chances (take Dmitri Young), but we were very upset about his rumored interest in Elijah Dukes (those rumors have since died off).
5. The Nats' starting rotation is a mess. Who among that group do you see contributing to the team's turnaround in the coming years, and what minor league arms might help out moving forward?
Kristen: Shawn Hill is working through an injury but he was excellent in his first few games. I hope to see him with us for awhile. Matt Chico deserves credit for anchoring the rotation. He hasn't missed a start yet. He's fun to watch - a real serious young guy, very focused. He can be erratic but he's improved a lot through the season. Bergmann and Simontacchi have been good; they've pitched a lot of decent games with little to no run support. The rest of our starters are call-ups or relievers and it's been tough. We've been through 12 starters already, I believe. I like what I've seen from the bullpen though. Saul Rivera has been excellent this year, Colome was great prior to his injury, Ayala is back from tommy-john surgery, and Chief and Rauch have been pretty consistent. I have very little confidence or interest in "our ace" John Patterson, who is technically on the DL - for unknown reasons with an unknown timeline for return. As far as the future - we're really excited about Collin Balester and we hope to see him up in September.
6. The Nats plucked catcher Jesus Flores from the Mets in this past winter's Rule V draft, despite Flores having never caught an inning above A-ball. He hasn't played much (87 at-bats for the season), but he has been better than most could have hoped. What are your thoughts on him?
Steph: It's true that Jesus Flores has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals. We took a chance with Flores in the Rule V draft, and it has paid off big time. Defensively Flores calls a good game. He is reportedly eager to learn all that he can and spends a great deal of time with veteran catcher Brian Schneider. Flores is usually our Sunday starter, and he blocks balls well and consistently throws out runners. He has also been a big help to the Nats offensively, having great at bats during key game moments. Jesus hit his first major league home run in Pittsburgh on July 1st against the Pirates. He consistently comes off the bench to pinch-hit, and produces with singles and doubles. He has 12 RBI's so far this season. We are big fans of our young catcher, and are becoming more and more comfortable with him behind and at the plate as he continues to prove himself.
Kristen: Just have to say Thank you, Mets fans....(for Flores and Manny).
If you feel like reading more of my rambling, incoherent gibberish on the Mets, they conducted a delightful Q&A of their own.
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Interview: Baseball Prospectus's Marc Normandin
Good friend and Baseball Prospectus columnist Marc Normandin took a break from his various paid writing gigs to answer some of my questions for free.
Eric Simon: Now that you're apparently taking a break from your smear campaign against the benevolent Endy Chavez, what made you decide to profile John Maine?
Marc Normandin: Hey now, I'm a big Endy fan too. I was all over his defensive abilities, and he made that amazing catch just a few days after in the playoffs. I can't wait for Endy to come back so we can see a little less Shawn Green in our lives.
As for why I profiled Maine, he's been on my radar for awhile. His flyball tendencies make him a nifty fit for Shea Stadium, but he's also been an effective pitcher on the road, a credit to the outfield defense behind him. Maine was a dominating pitcher in the minors due to his plus fastball at the lower levels. With a pitch like that, you can mow down hitters, just like Maine did. The Orioles misinterpreted his level of readiness though, and moved him between the high minors and the majors for a while before giving up on him for Kris Benson. The O's thought they were picking up a pitcher that pitching coach Leo Mazzone could fix; after all, Benson was originally a first rounder for the Pirates back in the day. I always wonder why teams give up (or move on without) certain players, especially one with Maine's abilities and the potential he showed in the minor leagues. It's also been interesting seeing him mature from a lucky pitcher in 2006 into a potential force and a probably #2 guy in 2007.
Eric Simon: In his three starts since your profile Maine has been dominant (via Baseball Musings):
| IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K |
| 22.2 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
He was good before that, but walks had been a big problem for him through the first two-plus months of the season. It's doubtful that he'll continue to average less than a walk per game, but is 2-3 out of the question?
Marc Normandin: Maine is capable of walking fewer than 4-5 batters per game, but 2 might be asking a bit much from him. If he could settle in at 3 walks per game, given his strikeouts and ability to keep the ball in the park this year, he could remain a valuable pitcher. The 4-5 seemed like too many when I was checking out his numbers, but I also don't think he's getting ready to turn into David Wells or Bret Saberhagen either.
Eric Simon: Who would you compare him to, either favorably or otherwise?
Marc Normandin: Well, I'm not sure exactly who Maine comps to, which is part of the reason I wanted to take a look at him. He's a different animal than most of the pitchers I've profiled so far in my column. I can tell you who he is not like though: his PECOTA comps were (understandably) unkind, based on his rough major league experience mixed in with his very lucky 2006 season. He seems to have settled in more comfortably in 2007, with his performance less dependent on luck than it was in the past, and influenced more by his talent. I don't expect him to turn into Steve Trachsel or Shawn Chacon, players #4 and #5 on his similar players list. They were placed there due to Maine's .225 BABIP in 2006, as the two seasons he comps with from those other guys were of the same variety. Maine's definitely a #3, and a potential #2 if he can keep his walks down and continue with his recent homer stinginess.
Eric Simon: Maine aside, the Mets have played below .500 ball for the last 50 games. They've been hurt by injuries, sure, but the offense has sputtered with a few exceptions. If you're the GM, what are you looking for as the trade deadline approaches?
Marc Normandin: The Mets are going to need some help at second base, with Valentin's bat nonexistent and his defensive range limited by his injuries. He was a nifty pickup for last season, but his usefulness is nil given his situation at present. Less Shawn Green is always a plus, and with Carlos Gomez gone and Endy Chavez on the disabled list, that becomes less likely unless they can acquire a major league outfielder. Krivsky is looking for bullpen help in exchange for Adam Dunn, which leaves the Mets out of the race. They could use their own help in the pen, although the little relief help available might not be worth the price, and they should try to restock from their own organization. There isn't a whole lot to acquire, and the shine of guys like Pat Burrell, never that great to begin with due to his poor defense, has probably worn off after poor starts to this season. The Mets might need to ride it out or attempt to fix things with what they already have in the high-minors and on their major league roster.
Eric Simon: How do you see the NL East shaking out as the season wears on?
Marc Normandin: I don't think Philly will stay in it, although they might put a scare in the division the next week trying to stave off the franchise's 10,000th loss. The Marlins are a .500 team if everything goes right for them, which it has not in 2007.
The Nationals are a non-issue until players they haven't drafted yet are almost ready for a taste of the major leagues. The Mets are in first, but they have their share of problems between injuries in the outfield, a poor season from Paul Lo Duca, Jose Valentin's injury-assisted demise, and the beleaguered bullpen. Pedro Martinez' return should help, but he's not going to help Carlos Delgado slow his decline or pitch all the setup innings.
The Braves would scare the hell out of me if I were a Mets fan. They're only a few games back at the break with multiple players significantly underperforming. If any two of Andruw Jones, Brian McCann or Jeff Francoeur pick up the pace in the second half, the Mets could be in trouble.
Atlanta's pitching is their weakest point, and it's more of a problem if John Smoltz is out for any length of time. They do have the offensive horses and improved bullpen to see them through though, and the Mets aren't invulnerable.
Eric Simon: Thanks, dude. You can check out Marc's work at Baseball Prospectus, Heater, and The New York Sun, amongst others.
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