We're finally here, the top five.

The funny thing is that even now as we cross the finish line, I'm re-evaluating my positions on many of these guys. And in just two short months the names will be re-shuffled once again.

Ranking prospects is such a crap shoot, which is exactly why I've said time and again that no list is the end all, be all -- not mine, not the community rankings, not Kevin Goldstein, not some dude on the street. Everyone has their own philosophies. Everyone values players slightly differently. That's the beauty of such lists and that's the fun in creating them. And reading others for that matter.

So hopefully you guys have enjoyed reading mine. I've certainly enjoyed making it. And by mid-season I'll enjoy blowing it up and starting from scratch. Such is my mania.

For anyone that's missed a segment here or there follow the links below, or scroll to the bottom of the page for a compiled version of the rankings:

#50-41 | #40-31 | #30-21 | #20-16 | #15-11 | #10-6

NOTE - For the record, I did NOT include Josh Satin in my final rankings -- though I probably should have. In my head he'd pretty much 'arrived', though he still harbors rookie eligibility and may begin 2012 in the minors. Had he been included he would have fallen somewhere in the neighborhood of no. 20-25.

5) RHP Jenrry Mejia

After Omar Minaya's lesson in how to mishandle a pitching prospect, Mejia began 2011 back where he belonged -- in the Triple-A rotation. And after his first couple of starts the bad memory of 2010 was fading away as Mejia had yet to allow an earned run in 12+ innings. However, by the end of April it was clear that something was wrong as his walks were up and his velocity was down. Then the news of Tommy John surgery dashed any hopes that the 22-yr old could recapture the momentum he had possessed one short year ago. Mejia is expected to hopefully get back on the field by mid-2012, though I'm not dinging him much for the injury as TJ rehab is bordering on routine at this point.

Unlike some of the other serious injury victims in the organization, Mejia is included on this list 1. because he actually appeared in 2011. And 2. because he's proven himself at the highest levels. That same reason explains his placement so high in the rankings. Despite the fanfare and hype for the Mets newly-crowned big 3, Mejia is the only pitcher in the Mets farm system to dominate at Double and Triple-A. The hard-throwing righty has a sub-3 ERA in 22 starts between the two levels, not to mention stuff on par with anyone in the organization. Mejia's electric mid-to-high 90's sinking fastball and developing 12-to-6 power curve give him the chance to carry that success to the next level, but it remains to be seen in which role. Sandy & Co. will likely put him back on track in the minors as a starter, but his max effort delivery, small stature (6'0") and durability questions stemming from the injury certainly lead some to believe he's a late reliever long-term.

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According to a report from the Ottawa Citizen, the Double-A Binghamton Mets' next season as an affiliate of the New York Mets will also be their last.

That is because Beacon Sports Capital Partners will be buying the club and moving them to Ottawa following the 2012 season. Since the club's partnership with the Mets conveniently ends after 2012, the Mets will almost definitely be looking for an alternative for 2013 (and beyond) that isn't quite so far from the New York market. Early rumors tab New Britain -- currently a Twins affiliate -- as the current favorite.

Also, as the new Ottawa franchise is expected to partner with Toronto, some expect a larger shake-up in the Double-A Eastern League. With the current Blue Jays affiliate in New Hampshire theoretically vacated, the Twins could move right in, leaving New Britain open for the Mets.

In terms of the city of Binghamton and NYSEG Stadium, the rumor mill continues to churn that affiliated baseball will indeed continue in the Parlor City. However, not on the Double-A level. The prevailing thought is that the Cardinals will move their short season-A NYPL affiliate -- currently in distant Batavia, NY -- down to Binghamton.

Selfishly, I must admit that I'm a little bit pleased about this news. As a self-serving resident of Danbury, New Britain would be under an hour whereas we've never made it to Bingo in under three. Still, it's sort of a sad development as the B-Mets have been a Mets affiliate since way back in 1992, meaning they've been one of the few constants for me as I learned to embrace the minor leagues. But I guess it's the natural cleansing that pretty much every club -- and their numerous affiliates -- must go through from time to time.

So on that note, go buy the tie-dyed hoodie; it will soon be a collectible!

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UPDATE (2:55PM)

Hold on. Maybe not. From the Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin website:

"Binghamton Mets president Michael Urda angrily shot down reports that the B-Mets are being sold and relocated to Ottawa, saying "Enough's enough."

"There's 12 teams in the Eastern League and we have to address it every single week," said Urda of relocation rumors. "It's just conjecture."

Apparently it seems that 'sources close to the situation' have screwed us again.

Obviously either side could be bald-faced lying right now but someone is moving to Ottawa; and honestly the Ottawa Citizen story really makes it sound like it's the B-Mets. However, I guess there is now the possibility that maybe it's a different Eastern League club on their way north, and the B-Mets stay put...? Stay tuned.

As part of his continuing Top 100 Prospects series for ESPN, Keith Law posted his top sleeper in each organization this morning. For the Mets, that player was Kingsport righty Domingo Tapia; once again, for those on the outside of the paywall looking in, here is a brief commentary:

"Right-hander Domingo Tapia is 6-foot-5 and hits triple digits as a starter with some sink on the pitch. He pairs it with a solid to above-average changeup that produced a reverse split in his 50 innings in Kingsport last year. He'll need a more consistent breaking ball to project as a top-end starter, but the velocity and changeup are a good start."

Definitely a solid choice by Law as the 20-yr old Tapia clearly has all of the tools to rocket up the Mets rankings this coming season, perhaps more so than any other single player. Perhaps my only small gripe is the definition of the word 'sleeper' as Tapia is suddenly becoming a very hot name in Mets prospect circles.

As well he should. Last week I ranked him as the Mets no. 22 overall prospect based on those same strengths that Law noted, being the special triple-digit sinker, the good feel for a change-up and the excellent raw physicality. I said:

"...the 20-yr old Tapia looks the part of a horse. What's more, he learned to harness that build this year as his already intriguing sinking fastball blossomed into a truly plus-plus, mid-90's offering and according to reports he was regularly hitting triple-digits. Even better, Tapia has a refined control of that pitch which affords him highly advanced command for someone so young and with so much stuff. That in and of itself drives Tapia up these rankings..."

Hell, I may have even bit a bit conservative with my ranking, initially penciling him in someplace in the teens based on his outstanding mix of size, stuff and youth alone. However, what ultimately held me back was his weirdly and somewhat concerningly low K-rates for someone with his stuff and command (2011: 5.40 K/9 | 2010: 5.55 K/9).

Regardless, Tapia absolutely has the look of a top tier pitching prospect; kids with his mix of abilities just don't come around very often. There's a very solid chance that by this time next year we very well may be talking about him as the next Mejia or Familia.

Over at ESPN.com Keith Law has put together his list of baseball's Top 100 prospects. It's behind their pay wall so for those not inclined to shell out for ESPN Insider access, two Mets made the list: the dynamic duo of Zack Wheeler at no. 27 and Matt Harvey at no. 38.

Here's a snippet of what Law had to say about the 21-yr old Wheeler:

"He will touch 97 mph and sit at least 91-94 with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that’s a little too firm, giving up a .283/.375/.452 line to left-handed hitters as a result (although that improved after the trade in a small sample). His control is still below-average, and he’ll have to show durability to match his frame, as he retired more than 18 batters just twice all year."

And Harvey:

"He will sit 91-97 mph as a starter with good downhill plane, and his changeup is a weapon for him against both left- and right-handed hitters. His curve and slider tend to run together, and he’d probably be better off just picking one or the other and using it exclusively to avoid throwing in-between pitches that will get hammered at higher levels"

Good stuff, but nothing we haven't heard in any previous top prospect list. More interesting was his evaluation of fellow electric righty Jeurys Familia, who he included in his ten prospects that "just missed":

"If I thought there was any chance he could start, he would have made the list, but he’s headed for the bullpen with a plus fastball and not enough command or secondary stuff to remain in the rotation."

Pretty surprising that he seems to feel that there's literally no chance of a major league career as a starter for Familia. The prevailing sentiment has indeed been pessimistic on the subject but most give him at least a slim shot. And I'm in that group as I think I'd need to see him really falter at one of these higher levels before I completely relegate him to relief.

There have been too many starters that have either survived or even thrived while featuring a mostly two-pitch repertoire to make me think otherwise. Look at a guy like Alexi Ogando who basically lives on his fastball and sharp slider alone, mixing in his sub-par change-up under 5% of the time. Now he admittedly has the luxury of leaning on an electric fastball, but hey it's not like Familia doesn't.

What do you think?

It only took us a couple weeks but we've finally broken into the top ten. As with the last couple of rounds we'll break these last two segments into groups of five as many of these guys warrant extended discussion and analysis.

Now if you've been away or asleep or just plain negligent, you can catch up on the rest of the series by following these links:

#50-41 | #40-31 | #30-21 | #20-16 | #15-11

Or scroll to the bottom of the page for a compiled version of the rankings. But for now, let's dive into the top ten:

10) OF Juan Lagares

Let’s discuss the most divisive prospect in the system. The 22-yr old Lagares blossomed in 2011, opening eyes with an excellent performance where he batted nearly .340 in Hi-A and then topping it with a downright incredible showing in his Double-A debut where he batted .370 in 38 games. And if that wasn’t enough he went on to post very solid totals out in the prospect-studded Arizona Fall League. In short, it was an excellent season. And even shorter, it was unsustainable.

That’s because, as we all know, it is unlikely Lagares will match the .439 BABIP he posted in Binghamton. Or even the .379 he put up in St. Lucie. His sparkling average is in line for serious regression come 2012. And it doesn’t help that he’s never been known for his patient approach. But here’s why I buy in: First off, you don’t just bat .370 at Double-A, the level that most believe makes a big leaguer. No it wasn’t even 40 games, but then again you don’t just bat .340 at Hi-A. There was clearly luck involved but let’s not also pretend that scouting reports about an emerging hit tool don’t exist. Or that they didn’t exist even back in the days – before years of injuries and underperformance – that this kid was a very highly thought of IFA. Thanks to a rush job on par with FMart or Ruben Tejada as well as nagging injuries his skills haven’t had the chance to shine through. But now that he’s finally catching up to his context the highly athletic outfielder is either finally unleashing his excellent offensive ability or he’s getting very lucky. I’m going with the former. Now he doesn’t possess a ton of home run power and his speed is good but not great so his ceiling certainly isn’t through the roof. But I can still see a 15/20 athlete who can bat between .280-300 and capably handle center on most days, in the mold of the Cardinals’ Jon Jay.

Why He's Here: As I stated, this didn’t just come out of nowhere. Even when rushed Lagares has always shown excellent contact ability. What’s more, he consistently showed a propensity to BABIP well over .300 (since ’09 he’s at a cumulative total around .340). And the scouting buzz jibes, focused around the bat speed his excellent line-drive stroke creates, especially as he’s added muscle to a long, athletic build. Even better was the significant jump he took in walks. 6.3% may still seem low by other standards but it represented a 200+% increase over his 2010 mark as coaches talked about the importance he placed on that aspect of his game. Add in the fact that he can capably handle all three positions and it’s tough to hold him back in the rankings.

Frankly, beyond the big three pitchers there is still not a lot of proven top tier talent in this system. Yes there are guys with better fundamentals – Havens. Or higher major league ceilings – Nimmo or Puello. But are there that many guys that have proven themselves at a high enough level to displace one of the top athletes in the system coming off a season when he batted .350 against advanced pitching? In my opinion there are not and so flawed or not he’s a definite top ten guy for me.

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Back to the grindstone today as we round out our final names before we reach the coveted top ten, with nos. 15-11. Definitely some intriguing players today and I'd love to hear everyone's take on some of these guys. As always feel free to challenge me as it's always interesting to hear as many perspectives as possible.

For those that have missed them, you can catch part I ((nos. 50-41) here, part II (nos. 40-31) here and part III (nos. 30-21) here and part IV (nos. 20-16) here. We're going to finish this thing one of these days!

But enough of the pleasantries, let get into the rankings:

15) OF Matt den Dekker

Going back to that same old point, the highly athletic 24-yr old 2010 fifth rounder is one of only a handful in the system with a nearly fully developed plus-plus major league skill right now. According to scouts his center field defense is gold glove caliber today; having watched quite a bit of him with Binghamton in 2011 that jibes completely with what I witnessed. The surprise however was his bat, namely his power. After profiling as a light-hitting, glove-first prospect at the time he was drafted, den Dekker posted a nearly .200 ISO at both St. Lucie and Binghamton in 2011. Beyond that he is the rare player who contributes in all statistical categories, posting double-digits in doubles, triples, homers and stolen bases last season.

The issue is that the same long swing from the left side that produced all those extra-base hits is also leading to a lot of strikeouts. More than a lot; in fact, den Dekker whiffed in a brutal 29% of his Double-A at bats last season, which even with a sustainable .305 BABIP pulled his batting average way down. Despite a very solid 8+ career walk rate, he will not have success at the highest levels with that amount of K's. Perhaps a change in approach is in order, less selling out for the long ball and more contact which is perfectly fine from a center fielder. Either way, while K's will always be an issue, if he can just bring them down to a more manageable level -- perhaps in the low 20's -- his solid on-base skills, athletic power/speed mix and sterling defense at a premium position give him the chance to be a major league starter in the mold of a Drew Stubbs. If not, he'll still make a quite valuable 4th-5th outfielder.

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We'll jump back into the rankings today and into the top 20, with nos. 20-16. For those that have missed them, you can catch part I (nos. 50-41) here, part II (nos. 40-31) here and part III (nos. 30-21) here.

Yes, I'm deviating from the standard model a bit as the profiles are getting a little meatier the higher we climb and the segments are suddenly looking a bit unwieldy as groups of ten. But not to worry, we'll wrap the rankings with nos. 15 down to through the almighty top ten next week!

But for right now, let's see what the rankings have in store for us today:

20) OF Cory Vaughn

The 21-yr old son of former big leaguer Greg Vaughn is at a crossroads after a 2011 which can honestly give ammunition to either side of the debate on his future. On the one hand, in the first half of the season in Savannah he picked up where he left off in 2010, hitting well, showing good walk rates and featuring the kind of all-around athleticism that had scouts dreaming of a plus right fielder in the bigs the minute they saw him in a pro uniform.

Conversely, he was far less impressive upon his promotion to St. Lucie. Specifically, for a college player Vaughn seemed surprisingly lost against A-ball pitching. That .219 mark was pretty damning, as was the continued increase of his K-rate up above 22%. And though you can give him a break for a BABIP below .250, you then must dock him for a mark above .350 with Savannah. There is some thought that his performance suffered thanks to a nagging heel injury, though Vaughn continued to play nearly every day so it’s tough to gauge. In short, there are certainly things to like about Vaughn as his combination of secondary skills and raw tools make it easy to envision an every day right fielder. But a decline in power as well as a K% bordering on unacceptable sinks his overall ceiling as well as the excitement he created during his pro debut with Brooklyn.

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Though it's been a relatively quiet winter for Sandy and Co. at the major league level, they've been quite active bringing in organizational depth on minor league contracts. In fact, they seemed to have cornered the market on one-time top prospects this offseason. I feel like I've lost track of the amount of times I've said, 'So and so was once an interesting prospect...next season he'll play for the Bisons.'

So why don't we take a bit of an inventory on the minor league free agent additions of this offseason so we all know what to expect coming into spring training:

November

• Nov 12: OF Adam Loewen - The 27-yr old former fourth overall pick of the Orioles has quite an interesting backstory. But in short he's a two-time former BA Top 50 overall 6'6" lefty who became a power-hitting outfielder after injuries and inconsistency drove him off the mound. Loewen hasn't had many opportunities to prove himself at the major league level since the conversion but last season with Toronto's Triple-A Las Vegas affiliate the highly athletic lefty batted .306/.377/.508 with 14 homers and 11 stolen bases. He'll seriously challenge Mike Baxter for the role of 4th-5th OF this spring and has the talent to become a nice low risk, high reward spare part for the Mets going forward.
  

• Nov 17: C Vinny Rottino - Like most of the guys on this list, the 31-yr old hasn't done much at the major league level, batting just .194 in 39 major league pa's. However, at the minor league level he has a more impressive .294/.363/.421 career triple-slash. In 2007, he ranked in the top 20 of John Sickels' Brewers Top Prospects list and in 2009 he was the starting catcher for Team Italy in the WBC under the tutelage of hitting coach Mike Piazza. This spring he'll contend with numerous other righty backstops for the role of Thole's understudy.
  

December

• Dec 12: RHP Jeremy Hefner - Like we've seen a few times now, Hefner is a player that was nabbed when he hit waivers due to Paul DePodesta's familiarity with the San Diego organization. The 25-yr old made Sickels' Top 20 Padres prospects list three consecutive years after being drafted out of Oral Roberts U. in '07 and was considered a good mix of solid stuff and command. He hasn't yet reached the show but in five minor league campaigns he has a career 3.84 ERA and a solid 2.82 K/BB. Now he was bad last year at Triple-A, though the PCL has made more than a few pitchers look worse than they really are. He'll likely fill out the Bisons rotation early on and compete with Chris Schwinden as SP depth if and when it is needed in Queens.

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