Mets Minors
Mets Revised Top 10 Prospects
Back in November, our SBN prospect guru John Sickels ranked the Mets' Top 20 Prospects. Four of those guys are gone now, but we can extract them from Sickels's list and compile a fresh Top 10 using the tattered remains of the Mets' farm system.
1. Fernando Martinez, OF, DOB: 10/10/1988 (Age: 19)
Somehow the Mets managed to hang onto their best prospect while still acquiring the best pitcher in baseball. The inclusion of Martinez in the deal would have made it tough to swallow, I think. Not that I wouldn't still be excited about Santana, but there's a lot to love about Martinez and I would really like to see him develop into a star with the Mets.
Martinez hit .271/.336/.377 in 236 at-bats with Double-A Binghamton last season as an 18-year-old. Those numbers may not seem terribly spectacular, but you have to remember that Martinez put them up in a league where the average age was better than 25. He figures to be a low Top-15 prospect in all of baseball once the 2008 rankings come out.
2. Jon Niese, LHP, DOB: 10/27/1986 (Age: 21)
Jon Niese is a lefty who pitched in A-ball last season. With their top two minor league starters en route to Minnesota, Niese becomes the Mets' top pitching prospect. He had very strong peripherals in 2007 (110 strikeouts, 31 walks, 9 homeruns in 134.1 innings) but a nothing-special 4.29 ERA. His BABIP was an absurd .346 last season, so that should come down a bit. Look for him to start the year in Double-A.
3. Eddie Kunz, RHP, DOB: 4/8/1986 (Age: 21)
Kunz was the closer for Oregon State before the Mets selected him with the 42nd overall pick last year (compensation for losing Roberto Hernandez). He appeared in twelve games with the Brooklyn Cyclones last year, stinking up the joint to the tune of a 6.75 ERA over 12.0 innings. He allowed only eight hits and no homeruns, but he walked eight while striking out nine. One of the walks was intentional, the rest presumably unintentional. Not much of a sample to go on here, but expect him to begin 2008 in A-ball Savannah.
4. Brant Rustich, RHP, DOB: 1/23/1985 (Age: 23)
Rustich was a second rounder last June out of UCLA. He allowed just six hits and a walk while striking out ten in 10.1 innings with Kingsport (Rookie). He continued pitching well after earning a promotion to Brooklyn, posting a 2.13 ERA and allowing just five baserunners (four hits) in 12.2 innings. Two of the four hits were homeruns. He should be teammates with Kunz next year in Savannah.
5. Joe Smith, RHP, DOB: 3/22/1984 (Age: 23)
Joe Smith got off to a great start with the Mets last year after making the big club out of spring training. He struck out 45 batters in 44.1 innings but allowed 69 baserunners over that span (48 hits, 21 walks, 7 HBP). The result was a crummy 1.56 WHIP and a better-than-it-should-have-been ERA of 3.45. With Duaner Sanchez possibly ready by Opening Day and Matt Wise signing a big league deal with the club a couple of months ago, Smith may be ticketed for Triple-A when camp breaks in April.
6. Nick Evans, 1B, DOB: 1/30/1986 (Age: 22)
Evans was slated to play winter ball in Hawaii this offseason but was kept out after the Mets found that he had a stress fracture in his right hand. They are hopeful that he will be ready to roll for spring training.
Evans hit an impressive .286/.374/.476 with St. Lucie last season. He annihilated lefties to the tune of .343/.431/.576, but he'll have to do better than .263/.355/.435 against righties if he has any chance to make it all the way to the bigs. He's already as far to the left of the defensive spectrum as he can be without becoming a full-time DH, so clearly his bat is going to be his ticket. His plate discipline has been impressive, and if he can add some bulk to his 6'2" frame (he's listed at 180 pounds) then he may develop the power necessary to be a big leaguer some day.
7. Stephen Clyne, RHP, DOB: 9/22/1984 (Age: 23)
Clyne was drafted out of Clemson in the third round last year, 123rd overall. Baseball America's Aaron Fitt says that he "has a funky arm action but decent stuff out of the pen, with a 90-92 mph fastball with tailing life and a slightly above-average slider in the 82-85 range". He notched a 2.05 ERA in 26.1 innings with Brooklyn last year, striking out 30 but allowing 19 walks. He's another decent relief prospect in the Mets' system and should wind up -- let me know if this sounds familiar -- with Savannah in 2008.
8. Scott Moviel, RHP, DOB: 5/7/1988 (Age: 19)
Moviel was taken 77th overall last year out of Saint Edward High School (OH) and tossed 40 innings with the GCL Mets (Rookie). He struck out 37 and walked just 11, posting a 3.38 ERA. Per Jim Callis, Moviel is a "6-foot-10, 245-pounder whose stuff keeps getting better. He could be a monster in a couple of years."
9. Brahiam Maldonado, OF, DOB: 9/18/1985 (Age: 22)
Maldonado hit .310/.349/.500 with Savannah (A) last year, showing good power if unspectacular strike zone judgment (79 strikeouts to just 19 walks in 306 at-bats). He will start the season in St. Lucie (High-A), and if his power carries over and he can improve his plate discipline he could move up this list posthaste.
10. Nathan Vineyard, LHP, DOB: 10/3/1988 (Age: 19)
Yet another 2007 draftee, Vineyard was taken 47th overall out of Woodland High School (GA), just five picks after Eddie Kunz. Mostly a starter with the GCL Mets last year, Vineyard struck out 33 batters to just nine walks in 27.1 innings. He also gave up four homeruns in that span, largely accounting for his bloated 5.27 ERA. He isn't an extreme flyball pitcher, so we'll see if the homeruns were just a small sample size fluke.
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John Sickels's Top 20 Mets Prospects
John Sickels has posted his Top 20 Mets prospects over at Minor League Ball. In a post the other day in which he layed out his upcoming schedule, his comment on the Mets' system was "OMG this farm system sucks" and his week-o-Mets continued with Saturday's Carlos Gomez mini-profile.
As for the list, Sickels handed out only two grades better than a "B", and those were B-pluses to Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra. There were quite a few Bs and B-minuses, and then eleven mostly-interchangeable Cs and C-pluses to round out the list.
Sickels warns that these early grades are just preliminary and that many are likely to change in the coming weeks or months.
Overall, I'd have to say that he ranked the Mets better than I would have expected. Whether real or imagined, I feel like Sickels has an anti-Mets bias for whatever reason. The Mets haven't helped themselves out, sporting mediocre organizational depth from year-to-year, but I get the sense that Sickels is more down on them than other prospect guys.
In any event, go check out the list and the corresponding grades and feel free to leave your comments here. Gomez seems a tad low at a B, especially if you consider that the Twins were rumored to have offered Matt Garza for Gomez straight-up and were rebuffed by the Mets.
If you can't get enough of the Mets' minors, check out Toby Hyde's interview with Adam Wogan, the Mets Director of Minor League Operations, over at Toby's Mets Minor League Report.
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Hello (with Notes!)
Hello, everyone. For those who don't know me, I'm Alex Nelson, a writer over at MetsGeek. Eric has graciously invited me to give him a hand over here with a few things, so I'll be around posting news, notes, and general commentary for awhile. Without further ado, here are a pair of notes on a pair of Mets prospects.
- Over at ESPN.com, former Blue Jays Special Assistant to the GM Keith Law gives his list of the top 25 best prospects in baseball (subscription required). What's especially interesting is that he places Mets OF Fernando Martinez sixth on that list, easily the best ranking for the 18-year old out there.
By way of comparison, over at SI.com, Bryan Smith places Martinez twenty-first on his own list. Given Fernando's extreme youth, I think the later ranking makes more sense -- a lot can happen by the time he's ready to roam the outfield in the majors -- but either way, the Mets have a jewel.
Scouts were especially impressed by his display of power against more advanced pitching in the Arizona Fall League, where he put up an impressive .126 isolated power.
- One guy who gets a little less credit is Jon Niese, a 20-year old lefty who pitched with Hagerstown last year. At Baseball Analysts, Rich Lederer posts a graph where he charts how every pitcher performed according to strikeouts per batter faced and groundball ratios. I couldn't help but notice Niese's name in the "Northeast Quadrant" of his chart, which lists the pitchers with both an above average number of strikeouts and an above average number of groundballs induced.
Here's what Rich has to say on the matter:
It's no secret that strikeouts are the best outcome for a pitcher. Next to infield flies, grounders are the least harmful among batted ball types. Although groundballs result in a higher batting average than fly balls, their run impact is lower because the hits are usually limited to singles and an occasional double down the first or third base line, whereas balls in the air that turn into hits become doubles, triples, or home runs.
Groundball rates are an important predictor of home runs because the latter can be influenced to a much greater degree by park factors, which vary significantly from one minor league stop to another. Keep in mind that no attempt has been made to adjust the data for classification, league, or park factors.
Basically, strikeouts keep the ball out of play, and groundballs keep the ball in the park. Last year, Niese went 11-9 with a 3.93 with 132 strikeouts and 62 walks over 123 innings. The walks are still a little high, but his future looks promising.
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Bye Bye, Norfolk
Beginning in 2007, the Mets' top minor league affiliate (AAA) will be the New Orleans Zephyrs, terminating their relationship with the Norfolk Tides, a pact that began back in 1969. A big motive for the move was the fact that the Zephyrs are in the Pacific Coast League, which is comprised of mostly warm-weather affiliates (Norfolk is in the International League, whose teams play in somewhat cooler climates).
The Mets have also pledged to contribute to the rebuilding effort in New Orleans, a sign that they intend to be members of the community and not just passive occupants.
(Source = Associated Press)
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