Synopsis

The Reds are in disarray, languishing in last place in the NL Central and having already ousted General Manager Wayne Krivsky in favor of former Cardinals' taskmaster Walt Jocketty. Despite the best efforts of manager Dusty Baker, none of the Reds' pitchers have had season-ending arm injuries and the offense is in the middle of the pack in team walks. Not exactly the Elysium that Baker had envisioned when he took over this past offseason, but he least he no longer has to worry about Barry Bonds clogging up the bases all the time. Or, you know, winning baseball games.

Record

NL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
St. Louis	22	14	.611	-	14-7	8-7	166	142	Lost 2	6-4
Chicago Cubs	19	15	.559	2	11-6	8-9	195	151	Lost 1	3-7
Houston	18	16	.529	3	11-5	7-11	162	152	Won 5	6-4
Milwaukee	16	17	.485	4.5	7-6	9-11	144	161	Lost 5	3-7
Pittsburgh	15	19	.441	6	9-7	6-12	171	192	Won 3	6-4
Cincinnati	14	21	.400	7.5	8-9	6-12	146	170	Won 1	4-6

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
14.	21.	146	170	15.0	20.0	16.3	18.7	17.3	17.7

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

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Neither their record nor their run differential is impressive, but if we consider equivalence runs scored and allowed (i.e. expected runs based on offensive components like OBP and SLG) and adjust for the strength of the Reds' opponents this year, their computer-ized record is much closer to .500. None of this changes the fact that the Reds have *actually* lost 60% of their games this year, but it might portend a smoother ride in the weeks ahead.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	SNLVAR	VORP
Aaron Harang	1	5	3.09	55.1	7.81	7.64	2.11	0.81	1.6	14.2
Bronson Arroyo*	1	4	8.63	32.1	13.92	8.07	3.62	2.23	-0.8	(-13.9)
Johnny Cueto*	2	3	5.27	41.0	8.34	9.00	1.76	1.54	0.3	0.4
Edinson Volquez	5	1	1.06	42.1	5.95	11.06	5.10	0.21	2.3	20.7
Matt Belisle*	1	2	6.91	14.1	15.70	4.40	1.26	1.26	-0.2	(-3.9)
Josh Fogg	1	2	9.27	22.1	11.69	6.85	3.22	2.01	-0.5	(-10.7)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

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Reds' starters are averaging an absurd 8.48 strikeouts per nine innings. Averaging! For the sake of comparison, Mets starters are averaging 7.01 strikeouts per nine innings, good for fifth in the National League. They have one starter -- Johan Santana at 9.13 -- who is averaging more than Cincinnati's entire rotation. Santana's the only Met starter averaging better than 7.5 whiffs per game, and on a given day whomever the Reds throw out there will strikeout an extra batter on top of that.

Unfortunately, the Reds' starters have the fourth-worst aggregate ERA and have allowed the fourth-most homeruns in the NL.

Aaron Harang is having another nice year, peripheral-wise, even though his record hardly reflects that. His strikeouts are down a bit relative to his recent seasonal numbers, but he is hardly walking anyone and is 1-5 on the season thanks to his offense only scoring 2.76 runs per game.

Rookie Johnny Cueto has struck out exactly a batter per inning and is walking fewer than two every nine innings, leaving him with a remarkable strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranks among the best in the league. Like the rest of the Reds' staff, Cueto has been burned by the long ball, coughing up seven in just 41 innings of work this season. Overall he has been their most well-balanced starter, a fact that belies his pedestrian 5.27 ERA.

Edinson Volquez was the key to the deal that sent Josh Hamilton to the Rangers last offseason, and his statistical profile this season is fascinating. Volquez is leading the National League with a 1.06 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 42.1 innings. He is also fourth in the league in walks (42) and has allowed just one homerun so far. He throws four different pitches: a 93 MPH fastball (57.6%), an 83 MPH slider (7.9%), a 77 MPH curveball (7.7%) and a 77 MPH changeup (26.8%). An expansive repertoire, though the Mets are fortunate to avoid it this series.

Bronson Arroyo has been dreadful this season, but much portion of his struggles can be attributed to horrible luck and a penchant for the longball. Arroyo has a solid strikeout rate and a passable walk rate, though his homerun rate -- 2.23 per nine -- is cartoonishly bad. His .403 BABIP is extraordinarily high, and this is where luck seems to have played a part in his rough go of it. The league average BABIP is around .300, so Arroyo is allowing hits on balls in play about a third more often than the rest of the league. He *is* giving up a lot of line drives, but I would expect both of those to come down over the course of a long season. Of course, his 8.63 ERA isn't the sort of thing that keeps a pitcher in the starting rotation for a whole season. See: Zito, Barry.

Matt Belisle is a 28-year-old righty with good control and a career 92 ERA+. He was handed his spot in the rotation by Josh Fogg and his 9.27 ERA. And that's the story of Matt Belisle.

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WPA Top Two
Edinson Volquez, 1.06 WPA
Aaron Harang, 0.70 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Bronson Arroyo, -1.53 WPA
Josh Fogg, -0.90 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SB	CS	EqA	VORP	NL Rank
*Paul Bako	C	96	.310	.375	.552	4	9	0	1	.290	8.0	6/31
*Joey Votto	1B	105	.302	.362	.583	7	9	1	1	.270	9.8	6/20
Brandon Phillips	2B	143	.276	.315	.493	6	8	5	2	.261	8.5	3/31
Jeff Keppinger	SS	142	.292	.336	.392	2	9	2	0	.254	6.5	9/24
Edwin Encarnacion	3B	139	.258	.360	.492	7	19	1	0	.287	8.0	5/18
*Adam Dunn	LF	133	.219	.376	.429	6	27	1	0	.272	4.0	9/28
*Corey Patterson	CF	105	.200	.260	.421	4	8	5	2	.237	(-0.6)	15/23
*Ken Griffey Jr.	RF	142	.244	.317	.378	4	13	0	1	.237	(-2.1)	18/19

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

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Joey Votto was a second-round pick of the Reds back in 2002 and after impressing in limited action last season has been one of the Reds' best hitters this season. His .583 slugging percentage is tenth-best in the National League, and he blasted three of his seven homeruns on Wednesday against the Cubs. He has completely displaced Scott Hatteberg as the Reds' starting first-baseman.

Paul Bako, 36-year-old catcher and a career .237/.309/.326 hitter is hitting .310/.375/.552 this season. He was signed as a free agent after leaving the Orioles following the 2006 season, and will make a million bucks or so this year. The Mets probably could've had him for Lastings Milledge if they had asked really nicely.

Ken Griffey Jr. is stumbling towards 600 career homeruns. He has been mostly miserable at the plate this year, but expect the load to lighten a bit once he hits his milestone. He's not the player he once was, but he was quite good as recently as last season, so unless he pulls a Carlos Delgado there's no reason to believe that he will regress into obsolescence so precipitously.

Former Met Jeff Keppinger has hit pretty well at short for the Reds, though his .254 EqA is nothing to write home about. He had a nice little run last season but still profiles as more of a utility infielder than a starter. That notwithstanding, hHis 6.5 VORP actually places him in the top ten among NL shortstops, so as long as he keeps hitting the Reds could do a whole lot worse.

Adam Dunn is a free agent after this season, but his .219 batting average and .429 slugging are going to be tough sells in left or at first base, the two weakest defensive positions on the diamond and historically the easiest positions at which to find offense. The Mets could very well be buyers at both positions next offseason, and Dunn might be a less expensive (albeit still expensive) alternative to Mark Teixeira.

Despite the low average -- and Jeff Brantley's infamous proclamations of non-clutchiness -- Edwin Encarnacion has turned into one of the better offensive third-basemen in the league. He is drawing walks and hitting for power, which is more than I can say for...

Corey Patterson has a .260 on-base percentage. Try to wrap your head around that.

Brandon Phillips rounds out the starting eight and, despite being allergic to walks, has shown very good power and is one of the best offensive keystoners in the National League. His six homeruns would tie him for the team lead were he on the Mets, and gives him exactly six more homeruns than Luis Castillo will hit in the next four years.

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WPA Top Two
Edwin Encarnacion, 0.66 WPA
Joey Votto, 0.45 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Adam Dunn, -0.53 WPA
Brandon Phillips, -0.47 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WXRL	VORP
Francisco Cordero	2.08	13.0	6.23	8.31	6.92	0.00	1.243	5.1
*Jeremy Affeldt	3.07	14.2	7.36	11.05	4.91	0.61	0.219	4.2
Jared Burton	4.02	15.2	9.77	12.64	2.87	1.72	-0.189	0.8
Mike Lincoln	3.60	15.0	9.00	5.40	1.20	0.60	0.595	2.4
*Kent Mercker	3.86	11.2	9.26	4.63	5.40	0.77	-0.174	2.3
David Weathers	3.86	9.1	10.61	2.89	7.71	0.00	-0.494	1.9

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The Reds have an interesting mix of arms in their 'pen. They have two guys who have struck out more than eleven batters per nine innings -- Jared Burton and Jeremy Affeldt -- and two more who have struck out fewer than five -- the elderly Kent Mercker and David Weathers.

Big-money closer Francisco Cordero has been effective, but he has walked almost seven batters per nine innings, dishing out ten free passes in thirteen innings so far. The Reds have him for four years and $40-something million, so while his 2.08 ERA looks nice now, if he keeps walking the ballpark he could be in big trouble soon. And by "trouble" I mean "bad ERA but still making a poopload of money".

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WPA Top Two
Francisco Cordero, 1.05 WPA
Mike Lincoln, 0.37 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
David Weathers, -0.66 WPA
Jared Burton, -0.44 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SB	CS	EqA	VORP
David Ross	Bench1	13	.167	.231	.250	0	1	0	0	.153	(-1.1)
#Javier Valentin	Bench2	31	.207	.258	.241	0	2	0	0	.163	(-2.0)
Jerry Hairston	Bench3	32	.345	.367	.517	1	1	1	1	.260	2.7
*Scott Hatteberg	Bench4	47	.128	.255	.179	0	7	0	1	.154	(-5.0)
Ryan Freel	Bench5	75	.304	.347	.362	0	5	4	3	.250	1.2

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One look at Scott Hatteberg's numbers and it's no wonder Joey Votto is starting at first now. Hatteberg has a great eye at the plate, and could be a nice right-handed complement to Carlos Delgado were he available on the cheap.

Jerry Hairston is off to a great start in extremely limited action. Javier Valentin is Jose Valentin's brother. Ryan Freel runs into walls. David Ross has a boring name.

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Managerial Tendencies

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	55	12/16
Stolen Base Attempts	33	7/16
Sacrifice Bunts	17	2/16

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Not listed here: young arms destroyed, guys who bled internally and runs scored on walks.

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Key Injuries

Norris Hopper

Alex Gonzalez

After reeling off eight consecutive wins against the Rockies and Marlins, the Dodgers finally dropped a one yesterday, 7-2 to Colorado. During their winning streak, the Dodgers scored 11 or more runs four different times, lighting up Mark Redman, Scott Olsen, Jeff Francis and Jorge de la Rosa.

Record

NL WEST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
Arizona	21	10	.677	-	12-5	9-5	179	125	Lost 1	6-4
LA Dodgers	17	14	.548	4	9-5	8-9	167	130	Lost 1	8-2
San Francisco	14	18	.438	7.5	8-8	6-10	106	145	Lost 1	5-5
Colorado	12	19	.387	9	5-8	7-11	134	169	Won 1	3-7

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
17.	14.	167	130	19.1	11.9	18.8	12.2	18.2	12.8

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Dodgers have had a pretty mixed schedule in the early going, playing five games apiece against the Rockies and Diamondbacks, six against the Padres and a three-spot against the Braves. They have fattened up against the Marlins, Pirates and Reds, going 8-3 against those should-be also-rans (the Marlins continue to play well despite countless prognostications to the contrary). The Dodgers have played two more games than the Mets and have scored 32 more runs and allowed two fewer. They have actually underperformed their third-order Pythagorean record by about a game and their raw run differential by two games.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	SNLVAR	VORP
Brad Penny*	5	2	3.19	42.1	8.93	4.25	2.98	0.43	1.0	10.6
Derek Lowe	2	2	3.66	39.1	9.84	5.72	2.52	0.69	0.5	2.5
Chad Billingsley*	1	4	5.20	27.2	8.78	13.01	5.53	0.65	0.2	0.1
Hiroki Kuroda*	1	2	3.82	37.2	9.56	4.78	1.91	0.96	0.6	5.4
Esteban Loaiza	1	2	5.62	24.0	9.00	3.38	1.88	1.12	-0.1	0.2

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

How can someone who throws 95-98 MPH strike out fewer than a batter every two innings? Brad Penny is off to another fine start, but his peripherals -- particularly his walk and strikeout rates -- leave plenty to be desired. Sure enough, his FIP (3.87) is more than two-thirds of a run higher than his ERA (3.19). His .287 BABIP is not dramatically low, but given a balance of luck he could expect his ERA to jump up a half-run or so. That doesn't mean it'll happen, but it means that he probably hasn't been pitching as well as his ERA might indicate.

Chad Billingsley has struck out more than thirteen batters per nine innings, but he has also walked more than five and his WHIP is more than 1.5. The dude throws heat, but it doesn't always go where he wants it to. The Mets have a pretty patient lineup so hopefully they'll be able to wait out his wildness and leverage hitters counts to rack up some runs.

Hiroki Kuroda, yet another Asian import on this Dodger team, seems to have good control but no put-away pitch. He pitches to contact and does a pretty good job of keeping the ball on the ground, which means we can count on at least a few Carlos Delgado double-plays.

WPA Top Two
Hong-Chih Kuo, 0.06 WPA
Brad Penny, -0.06 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Chad Billingsley, -0.42 WPA
Esteban Loaiza, -0.39 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SB	CS	EqA	VORP	NL Rank
Russell Martin	C	133	.286	.429	.419	3	26	2	2	.310	8.0	4/31
*James Loney	1B	134	.275	.328	.417	3	10	1	3	.255	1.6	12/20
Jeff Kent	2B	102	.298	.343	.479	3	6	0	0	.279	6.8	6/31
#Rafael Furcal	SS	150	.369	.453	.585	4	19	8	2	.357	25.1	1/23
*Blake Dewitt	3B	86	.293	.384	.400	0	10	1	0	.273	4.2	7/18
*Juan Pierre	LF	78	.324	.395	.382	0	6	9	1	.285	5.2	9/29
Andruw Jones	CF	113	.163	.274	.255	1	15	0	0	.185	(-6.3)	23/23
Matt Kemp	RF	113	.324	.348	.495	2	5	7	1	.295	8.4	5/18

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Overall a very strong lineup, with six of the eight regulars in the top half of the NL at their respective positions (by VORP) and five in the top third. One of the slackers is Andruw Jones, who has cost the Dodgers two-thirds of a win with his bat alone, relative to a replacement center fielder. His -6.3 VORP is the worst among 23 qualifying CFs.

Meanwhile, his former Brave teammate Rafael Furcal is third in the league in VORP, first among shortstops, and is getting on base better than 45% of the time. I don't normally dole out fantasy advice, but if you happen to own Furcal in your fantasy league I would go ahead and sell high as his .396 BABIP is laughably unsustainable. His 18.5% line drive rate would normally dictate a .305 BABIP, so Furcal has a rhino turd-sized plate of bad luck in his future.

Russell Martin remains one of the best offensive catchers in the league, and Jeff Kent still provides solid offense at the keystone despite advancing age and a litany of truck-washing-related ailments.

If you thought Furcal was the early-season prince of BABIP, allow me to present the case for Matt Kemp. The Dodgers' right fielder is off to a terrific start, hitting .324/.348/.495 in 113 plate appearances. He is also 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts. He also has a .438 BABIP, which is ridiculous. Strangely, his line drive rate is an astounding 31.2%, so his high BABIP may not be all smoke and mirrors. I don't really know what to think here because the league average BABIP is around .300 and the average LD% is around 18%. So, Kemp does appear to be legitimately hitting the crap out of the ball, but I have no idea how long he'll be able to keep it up.

WPA Top Two
Rafael Furcal, 0.88 WPA
Russell Martin, 0.59 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Andruw Jones, -1.09 WPA
Mark Sweeney, -0.29 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WXRL	VORP
Takashi Saito	2.03	13.1	7.43	9.45	3.38	0.68	0.202	4.2
Jonathan Broxton	2.08	13.0	5.54	11.77	4.15	0.00	0.991	5.0
Scott Proctor	5.28	15.1	8.22	8.22	4.11	1.76	0.112	(-0.5)
*Joe Beimel	0.82	11.0	9.00	6.55	3.27	0.00	0.547	5.8
*Hong-Chih Kuo	3.05	20.2	8.27	10.89	3.48	0.87	0.176	6.0
Chan Ho Park	2.84	19.0	9.47	2.84	4.74	1.89	0.600	5.9
Cory Wade	3.00	6.0	9.00	4.50	0.00	0.00	-0.063	(-1.1)

Another year, another terrific bullpen for the Dodgers. Takashi Saito remains one of the best closers in baseball, and Jonathan "Tubs" Broxton continues to be a formidable Mariano Rivera to Saito's John Wetteland. Hong-Chih Kuo has struck out almost eleven batters per nine innings so far, and he and Joe Beimel give the Dodgers plenty of lefty options coming out of the 'pen. Former Yankee Scott Proctor is also striking out a lot of batters, but he is also walking plenty and allowing homeruns left and right. I'm sure Joe Torre will have no problem overusing him just as he did in the Bronx.

I suppose I would be remiss if I didn't mention our old friend Chan Ho Park, back with the Dodgers and pitching effectively in relief. And by "pitching effectively" I really mean "somehow maintaining a sub-seven (let alone sub-three) ERA despite horrendous strikeout (2.84), walk (4.74) and homerun (1.89) rates. Unless he's the Korean David Copperfield you can count on his FIP bubble bursting any day now.

WPA Top Two
Jonathan Broxton, 0.86 WPA
Chan Ho Park, 0.51 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Cory Wade, -0.18 WPA
Chad Billingsley, -0.17 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	SB	CS	EqA	VORP
Andre Ethier	Bench1	122	.303	.388	.465	3	13	2	0	.300	7.7
Chin-lung Hu	Bench2	36	.226	.333	.226	0	5	1	0	.238	(-0.5)
Delwyn Young	Bench3	16	.400	.438	.400	0	1	0	0	.272	1.9
Gary Bennett	Bench4	15	.143	.200	.143	0	1	0	0	-.071	(-1.9)
Mark Sweeney	Bench5	27	.136	.296	.182	0	5	0	0	.143	(-1.2)

Andre Ethier gets a lot of starts, but there's really no reason he should ever ride the bench in favor of Juan Pierre. To Pierre's credit (you don't hear those words uttered very often), he has done a good job getting on base so far this year and actually has a respectable .385 EqA. The bad news is that his career EqA is almost 30 points lower at .256, so expect him to trade respectability for replaceability sooner rather than later.

Mark Sweeney is a career bench player who hasn't had a good season since 2005 when he hit .294/.395/.466 with the Padres. Gary Bennett is a backup catcher who appeared on last winter's Mitchell Report and later admitted that his HGH use was a "stupid decision", presumably because it didn't make him any better than a crummy backup catcher. Bennett was traded to the Mets in 2001 as half of a straight-up deal that sent Todd Pratt to the Phillies. Bennett went 1-for-1 in his only game with the Mets and remains among the franchise leaders with a career 2.000 OPS.

Delwyn Young is a utility guy with a very strong minor league track record and good success in extremely limited (as in 57 plate appearances limited) big league action. Chin-lung Hu is a puny Taiwanese shortstop who won the MVP of last season's All-Star Futures game. He hasn't done much to distinguish himself in 36 plate-apps this season, but with Furcal running third in the NL in VORP there is little reason to give Hu playing time.

Managerial Tendencies

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	59	4/16
Stolen Base Attempts	41	2/16
Sacrifice Bunts	15	6/16

Joe Torre seems to be adapting well to the National League style of play, ranking near the top of the league in pinch hits, stolen base attempts and sacrifice bunts. No word on whether he avoids the wheel play or understands the utility of double-switching, but he has a strong enough bullpen to overcome -- as he did in New York -- much of his pedestrian tactical management ability.

Key Injuries

Nomar Garciaparra

Jason Schmidt

It was sweep city in D.C. but the Mets return home to find the league's most suffocating pitching staff waiting for them.

Record

NL WEST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
Arizona	71	55	.563	-	37-24	34-31	539	568	Lost 2	6-4
San Diego	66	57	.537	3.5	35-29	31-28	534	475	Won 1	5-5
LA Dodgers	64	60	.516	6	34-32	30-28	547	538	Won 1	5-5
Colorado	63	61	.508	7	35-24	28-37	629	592	Lost 2	4-6

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
66.	57.	534	475	68.0	55.0	63.7	59.3	63.2	59.8

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Padres have outperformed their run differential by a few wins, not atypical for a team with such a talented bullpen.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
*Jake Peavy	13	5	2.19	164.2	7.00	9.56	2.51	0.33	60.4
*Chris Young	9	4	1.93	130.2	5.79	8.61	3.17	0.28	49.5
Greg Maddux	9	9	3.90	154.2	9.66	4.83	1.22	0.64	30.0
*Justin Germano	6	7	4.18	103.1	8.10	5.14	2.53	0.96	16.2
Clay Hensley	2	3	6.70	44.1	10.96	4.87	5.48	0.81	(-7.3)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Those two guys at the top will make for a very difficult series for the Mets. Jake Peavy is the Cy Young frontrunner at this point, though Chris Young would be right there with him if he hadn't missed some time due to injury. The Padres took two of three from the Mets when these two teams met in San Diego back in July, and they certainy have their starting rotation lined up to do the same this week at Shea.

WPA Top Two
Jake Peavy, 4.06 WPA
Chris Young, 3.74 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
David Wells, -1.27 WPA
Clay Hensley, -0.91 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP	NL Rank
Josh Bard	C	310	.258	.345	.369	0	1	9.4	6/31
Adrian Gonzalez	1B	537	.270	.341	.479	0	0	24.0	8/27
Geoff Blum	2B	230	.265	.336	.358	0	0	3.0	16/28
Khalil Greene	SS	483	.237	.273	.444	3	0	8.5	15/29
Kevin Kouzmanoff	3B	370	.236	.293	.412	1	0	0.9	18/29
Terrmel Sledge	LF	196	.208	.308	.363	1	1	(-3.5)	20/32
Mike Cameron	CF	513	.249	.324	.432	14	5	15.3	5/31
Brian Giles	RF	371	.306	.391	.441	4	3	19.2	5/31

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

This lineup is missing Milton Bradley who is nursing a hamstring injury and is likely to miss the whole series. He has hit .355/.456/.618 since joining the Padres, and his understudy Terrmel Sledge has been worse than replacement level in 196 plate appearances this season. The left side of San Diego's infield has combined to post an on-base percentage to the south of .300, and Marcus Giles played so badly early on that he has basically been replaced by Geoff Blum at second base. Adrian Gonzalez is having a solid year at first, and Brian Giles has seen a surge in the power department since the All-Star break and currently looks like the Giles of old.

WPA Top Two
Adrian Gonzalez, 2.43 WPA
Milton Bradley, 1.21 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Khalil Greene, -1.41 WPA
Michael Barrett, -1.34 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Trevor Hoffman	2.09	43.0	5.65	6.28	2.30	0.42	15.0
Heath Bell	2.43	70.1	6.53	9.21	2.69	0.38	25.5
Cla Meredith	3.34	59.1	11.38	6.52	1.97	0.61	8.1
Kevin Cameron	1.33	47.1	7.23	7.99	5.13	0.00	22.1
Justin Hampson	3.62	37.1	9.40	4.82	3.38	0.00	7.5
Doug Brocail	3.90	55.1	7.97	4.72	2.93	0.81	5.7
Wilfredo Ledezma	5.06	5.1	11.81	11.81	6.75	1.69	(-0.6)

Yikes. Heath Bell has been awesome, but he has already logged more than 70 innings with almost forty games yet to play. Kevin Cameron's ERA is razor-thin but his peripherals paint a different picture. Allowing more than five walks every nine innings is bound to come back to bite him.

WPA Top Two
Heath Bell, 2.46 WPA
Trevor Hoffman, 2.44 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Cla Meredith, -0.74 WPA
Mike Thompson, -0.62 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP
Pete Laforest	Bench1	26	.381	.500	.571	0	0	4.5
Marcus Giles	Bench2	440	.223	.293	.307	10	3	(-10.9)
Morgan Ensberg	Bench3	43	.225	.279	.525	0	0	1.4
Milton Bradley	Bench4	90	.355	.456	.618	3	1	13.5
Rob Mackowiak	Bench5	48	.191	.208	.234	1	0	(-4.8)

Bradley probably isn't available although I like the Morgan Ensberg pickupas a no-risk maneuver. Marcus Giles will probably start against Tom Glavine in this series but could ride the pine the other two games.

Manager

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	191	10/16
Stolen Base Attempts	69	13/16
Sacrifice Bunts	50	7/16

The Padres are helmed by Bud Black in his first stint as a big league manager. He had been a pitching coach with the Angels under Mike Scoscia for a number of years.

Key Injuries

Michael Barrett

Scott Hairston

Payroll

Team Payroll	MLB Rank
$58,235,567	24/30

The Mets just wrapped up a stinky, poopy, bitterly disappointing three game series with the Braves and welcome the struggling Marlins to town with open arms.

Record

NL EAST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
NY Mets	64	50	.561	-	31-25	33-25	532	485	Lost 1	6-4
Atlanta	61	54	.530	3.5	31-28	30-26	572	528	Won 1	7-3
Philadelphia	60	54	.526	4	31-24	29-30	625	570	Lost 1	5-5
Florida	53	62	.461	11.5	26-32	27-30	550	598	Won 1	5-5
Washington	53	62	.461	11.5	30-29	23-33	452	535	Won 1	8-2

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
52.	62.	546	596	52.2	61.8	54.5	59.5	53.6	60.4

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Marlins are right where they should be based on their run differential: Ten games under .500.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Dontrelle Willis	7	12	4.98	146.1	10.82	6.03	3.94	0.98	(-2.6)
*Scott Olsen	9	9	5.43	132.2	10.58	7.06	4.34	1.09	(-3.3)
Sergio Mitre	5	5	3.67	117.2	9.79	5.12	1.99	0.54	14.8
*Rick Vanden Hurk	3	3	7.49	51.2	10.80	8.36	6.10	1.57	(-12.3)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

In short, they've been terrible. The Marlins might have screwed the pooch by not trading Dontrelle Willis when his value was through the rough a year or two ago. I've never been overly impressed with him; his peripherals have declined considerably since his breakthrough rookie campaign. He's hardly a terrible pitcher and he's likely something better than he has shown this season, but he isn't a #1 type and he might not even be a #2 at this point. He isn't nearly as good as Mark Buehrle, and might not even be as good as Ted Lilly at this point. Anyhoo, Scoot Olsen has a world of talent but a bucket of rocks in his head. Sergio Mitre has been tremendously successful despite barely striking anyone out. Rick Vanden Hurk has allowed almost two homeruns and better than six walks every nine innings, which tells you all you need to know about Rick VandenHurk.

WPA Top Two
Sergio Mitre, 0.53 WPA
Byung-Hyun Kim, 0.05 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Dontrelle Willis, -1.59 WPA
Henricus Vanden Hurk, -1.45 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP	NL Rank
Miguel Olivo	C	365	.234	.252	.380	2	2	(-3.6)	22/32
Mike Jacobs*	1B	262	.245	.294	.400	0	1	(-1.1)	22/27
Dan Uggla	2B	525	.249	.324	.497	2	0	24.7	4/29
Hanley Ramirez	SS	483	.342	.395	.576	32	10	64.8	1/28
Miguel Cabrera	3B	473	.336	.409	.618	0	1	61.1	1/27
Josh Willingham	LF	454	.269	.377	.479	5	1	25.4	8/31
Alfredo Amezaga#	CF	382	.270	.325	.374	12	6	5.1	13/31
Jeremy Hermida	RF	292	.260	.354	.448	2	4	8.1	13/29

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

A very, very good lineup with the exception of centerfield and catcher. Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez are bona fide superstars and the Marlins have gotten solid production again from Dan Uggla at second, Josh Willingham in left and Jeremy Hermida in right. Former Met Mike Jacobs has been decent in the power department but is doing a terrible job of getting on base. Maybe that would be passable if he were still a catcher but he is an offensive sinkhole at first base.

WPA Top Two
Miguel Cabrera, 3.18 WPA
Hanley Ramirez, 2.37 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Alfredo Amezaga, -1.55 WPA
Miguel Olivo, -1.35 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Armando Benitez	5.81	26.1	8.89	8.89	5.13	1.03	(-3.9)
Taylor Tankersley	4.88	31.1	8.04	8.04	5.74	0.86	2.4
Justin Miller	2.75	39.1	6.86	9.38	3.66	0.69	12.5
Matt Lindstrom	3.97	45.1	9.53	8.74	3.18	0.40	4.0
Lee Gardner	2.51	46.2	8.87	6.75	2.51	0.19	16.0
Mauro Zarate	13.50	1.1	13.50	6.75	6.75	6.75	(-2.1)
Kevin Gregg	3.19	62.0	6.82	8.56	4.21	0.73	15.5

Far from terrible. Kevin Gregg, Lee Gardner and Justin Miller have all been pleasant surprises coming out of the bullpen. Former Met and Marlin Armando Benitez is back in Florida for a second go-round and has struggled much this time. I'm sure he'll still dominate the Mets, but that's just par for the course.

WPA Top Two
Kevin Gregg, 1.95 WPA
Henry Owens, 0.78 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Jorge Julio, -2.06 WPA
Armando Benitez, -1.22 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP
Matt Treanor	Bench1	107	.293	.377	.424	0	0	7.1
Jason Wood	Bench2	97	.281	.323	.449	0	0	0.6
Alejandro De Aza*	Bench3	39	.324	.333	.486	1	0	2.9
Todd Linden#	Bench4	81	.288	.358	.397	2	0	3.4

Alejandro De Aza actually plays quite a bit in centerfield and can actually hit a little bit unlike Alfredo Amezaga who couldn't hit a brick wall with a bag of shit. Todd Linden was dumped by the Giants earlier in the year and hasn't done anything to establish himself with the Marlins. Matt Treanor has actually been a pleasant surprise for the Fish this year and is probably a much better option behind the dish than Mr. Swing-at-anything Miguel Olivo.

Manager

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	188	5/16
Stolen Base Attempts	99	4/16
Sacrifice Bunts	54	4/16

Manager Fredi Gonzalez has his club in the top five in pinch hit appearances, stolen base attempts and sacrifice bunts. Kind of surprising considering that their offense is second in the National League with a .784 team OPS. Oh well.

Key Injuries

Josh Johnson

Ricky Nolasco

Henry Owens

Renyel Pinto

Aaron Boone

Cody Ross

Payroll

Team Payroll	MLB Rank
$30,507,000	29/30

After wrapping up a successful midwest swing the Mets return home for a three-game grudge match against the second place Braves.

Record

NL EAST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
NY Mets	63	48	.568	-	30-23	33-25	519	468	Won 1	6-4
Atlanta	59	53	.527	4.5	31-28	28-25	555	515	Won 2	5-5
Philadelphia	58	53	.523	5	29-23	29-30	606	561	Won 1	6-4
Florida	52	60	.464	11.5	26-32	26-28	541	579	Won 2	4-6
Washington	51	60	.459	12	30-29	21-31	439	520	Won 6	8-2

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
59.	53.	555	515	59.9	52.1	61.0	51.0	61.7	50.3

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Braves are actually underperforming their expected won-loss record by a couple of games; they have 59 wins on the season compared with almost 62 expected based on their run diffential. Their odds of winning the NL East are just shy of 11%; their Wild Card odds are just under 21%.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
*John Smoltz	10	6	3.04	133.1	9.18	8.23	2.03	0.74	35.3
*Tim Hudson	12	5	2.95	158.2	8.11	5.56	2.10	0.23	48.2
Chuck James	9	8	3.84	126.2	9.24	6.39	3.77	1.42	25.9
Buddy Carlyle	6	3	4.20	70.2	8.79	5.86	2.04	1.27	10.7
Lance Cormier	0	2	15.58	8.2	17.65	5.19	8.31	7.27	(-9.3)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Two aces, a serviceable lefty and back-of-the-rotation fodder make up the Braves' starting five. John Smoltz has been terrific as usual, and Tim Hudson has bounced back following a terrible 2006 to post some of the best numbers of his career. His strikeout rate is alarmingly low, but his walk and homerun rates are razor thin, great signs for a groundball pitcher.

WPA Top Two
Tim Hudson, 2.03 WPA
John Smoltz, 1.61 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Kyle Davies, -1.65 WPA
Mark Redman, -1.21 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP	NL Rank
Brian McCann*	C	369	.268	.319	.455	0	0	16.6	2/32
Mark Teixeira#	1B	27	.261	.370	.739	0	0	3.4	16/27
Kelly Johnson*	2B	433	.301	.397	.497	9	4	34.5	2/29
Yunel Escobar	SS	171	.331	.373	.414	3	2	8.4	10/29
Chipper Jones#	3B	396	.334	.429	.582	5	1	48.2	2/28
Matt Diaz	LF	259	.347	.376	.490	3	0	19.9	10/31
Andruw Jones	CF	472	.217	.316	.426	5	1	6.8	11/30
Jeff Francoeur	RF	484	.304	.349	.450	2	2	18.0	5/29

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Five regulars batting over .300 (it would be six if Edgar Renteria weren't on the disabled list). The same number have on-base percentages of .349 or higher, and four (plus Renteria) are in the Top 5 among National Leaguers at their respective positions. Andruw Jones has been terrible and Yunel Escobar is still an unknown quantity, but with the recent addition of Mark Teixeira the Braves lineup is awfully formidable from top-to-bottom.

WPA Top Two
Yunel Escobar, 1.93 WPA
Chipper Jones, 1.85 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Andruw Jones, -1.16 WPA
Scott Thorman, -0.98 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Bob Wickman	3.89	39.1	9.38	7.55	3.66	0.69	5.8
Rafael Soriano	3.81	49.2	6.52	7.97	2.17	1.63	8.4
Octavio Dotel	10.80	3.1	10.80	10.80	2.70	2.70	(-2.9)
Oscar Villarreal	3.69	63.1	7.96	7.96	3.27	0.71	10.9
Tyler Yates	4.91	47.2	8.12	9.06	4.72	0.57	(-2.0)
Ron Mahay	2.25	4.0	6.75	6.75	4.50	0.00	0.5
Peter Moylan	1.94	60.1	6.27	6.27	3.28	0.60	18.1
Joey Devine	2.25	4.0	11.25	9.00	4.50	0.00	1.5

John Schuerholz made a concerted effort to fortify his bullpen last offseason and for all of his work Peter Moylan has been his best reliever by far. Rafael Soriano and Bob Wickman have been decent but nothing spectacular at the back of the 'pen. Oscar Villareal has been serviceable, but former Met Tyler Yates has been awful. Tradeline acquisition Octavio Dotel, another former Met, should help down the stretch.

WPA Top Two
Peter Moylan, 2.38 WPA
Rafael Soriano, 1.35 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Steve Colyer, -0.54 WPA
Wil Ledezma, -0.42 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP
Corky Miller	Bench1	6	.333	.333	.500	0	0	0.5
Scott Thorman	Bench2	276	.217	.258	.395	1	1	(-7.5)
Chris Woodward	Bench3	122	.214	.246	.304	1	0	(-5.8)
Willie Harris	Bench4	263	.328	.397	.447	16	9	15.6

Willie Harris has been terrific in a part-time role, but there isn't a lot of room for him in the Atlanta outfield right now. Matt Diaz and Frenchy are both having fine seasons at the plate, and Andruw Jones is a staple in centerfield despite barely cracking replacement level offense. The rest of the bench is utterly replaceable (Chris Woodward? Meet Damion Easley).

Manager

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	196	2/16
Stolen Base Attempts	78	10/16
Sacrifice Bunts	36	15/16

Bobby Cox uses a lot of pinch hitters but he very rarely employs the sacrfice bunt.

Key Injuries

Mike Gonzalez

Anthony Lerew

Edgar Renteria

A couple of pretty key injuries here. Mike Gonzalez was acquired prior to the season from the Pirates in exchange for Adam LaRoche. He had a 1.59 ERA in 17.0 innings but is lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery at the beginning of June. Edgar Renteria is on the shelf for at least two weeks with a high right ankle sprain.

Payroll

Team Payroll	MLB Rank
$89,492,685	13/30

After taking two (and almost three) from the Beermakers, the Mets roll into Chicago to take on the central division leading Cubs.

Record

NL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
Chicago Cubs	57	50	.533	-	29-26	28-24	501	442	Lost 1	6-4
Milwaukee	58	51	.532	-	37-19	21-32	524	497	Lost 2	3-7
St. Louis	50	55	.476	6	25-25	25-30	463	553	Lost 2	5-5
Houston	46	61	.430	11	28-25	18-36	473	552	Lost 3	5-5
Pittsburgh	44	62	.415	12.5	25-30	19-32	440	525	Won 2	3-7
Cincinnati	45	64	.413	13	24-29	21-35	497	567	Lost 5	4-6

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
57.	49.	495	432	59.6	46.4	58.9	47.1	56.8	49.2

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Cubbies are right where they should be, record-wise. Their actual won-loss ledger is supported by their run differential.

Starting Rotation

Player

W

L

ERA

IP

H/9

K/9