After their jubilant flight home from Los Angeles and a much-deserved off day on Monday, the Mets open a homestand against some of the suppler teams of the National League. Nothing is guaranteed, and you've gotta go out there and beat them just the same. First up are the Pirates de Pittsburgh.

Record

NL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
Milwaukee	55	44	.556	-	36-17	19-27	473	436	Lost 1	6-4
Chicago Cubs	51	46	.526	3	27-24	24-22	452	400	Lost 2	7-3
St. Louis	45	50	.474	8	21-22	24-28	414	492	Won 1	5-5
Houston	42	57	.424	13	24-23	18-34	432	494	Lost 1	3-7
Pittsburgh	41	56	.423	13	23-29	18-27	394	473	Lost 1	2-8
Cincinnati	42	58	.420	13.5	21-26	21-32	467	516	Won 1	5-5

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
41.	56.	394	473	40.3	56.7	38.4	58.6	38.0	59.0

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

Pittsburgh stinks. Again. They are going to finish below .500 this season. Again. Just as they have in each season starting in 1993. They are almost certainly the most poorly run franchise in baseball, if not all of sports. They have some good young pitchers and a few solid young position players. There is no bright side, really, and if Pythagoras had his way their record would be even worse than it already is.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
* Ian Snell	7	7	3.31	127.2	8.25	7.26	2.54	0.99	29.1
* Tom Gorzelanny	9	5	3.20	132.0	8.52	5.86	2.59	0.75	35.6
* Paul Maholm	6	12	4.57	126.0	9.57	5.36	2.57	1.14	9.1
Shane Youman	2	2	3.24	25.0	9.36	3.24	2.52	0.36	5.9
John Van Benschoten	0	4	8.17	25.1	9.95	5.68	6.04	0.36	(-8.3)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

The Bucs' starting rotation has been its only real strength this season, and Snell and Gorzelanny have both been splendiferous this season. The strikeout rate on Gorz is unspectacular, but neither issues many walks or an egregious number of homeruns, and both have been innings eaters.

Maholm has been mediocre at best, but he's a crafty lefty so you can count on the Mets struggling against him. Moises Alou should be back in action this series so his right-handed bat should help some.

WPA Top Two
Tom Gorzelanny, 2.09 WPA
Ian Snell, 1.70 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Zach Duke, -1.41 WPA
Tony Armas Jr., -1.32 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP	NL Rank
Ronny Paulino	C	281	.240	.285	.359	1	2	(-1.8)	20/32
Adam LaRoche*	1B	387	.246	.326	.439	0	1	5.1	14/27
Freddy Sanchez	2B	386	.295	.326	.409	0	0	9.4	11/25
Jack Wilson	SS	362	.252	.305	.347	0	3	(-3.0)	21/26
Matt Kata#	3B	18	.333	.333	.500	0	0	1.2	18/30
Jason Bay	LF	409	.247	.323	.412	2	1	3.4	19/31
Nate McLouth*	CF	154	.225	.296	.370	6	0	0.4	19/31
Xavier Nady	RF	338	.280	.334	.479	2	1	13.9	6/28

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Wow. Just putrid. Former Met Xavier Nady is the only position player with a VORP above ten, though Matt Kata has just 18 plate appearances so he is forgiven. Not a single regular with an on-base percentage above .335 and only one guy -- Nady -- slugging above .440. It's no surprise that the Pirates are next to last in the league in scoring, dead last in OBP and 14th in slugging. But don't fret, Pirates fans. They *are* third in HBP. Woot!

WPA Top Two
Xavier Nady, 1.37 WPA
Nate McLouth, 0.27 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ronny Paulino, -2.03 WPA
Freddy Sanchez, -1.97 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Salomon Torres	5.12	31.2	9.09	7.96	3.41	1.14	0.9
Matt Capps	2.24	52.1	7.39	6.19	1.89	0.34	17.8
Damaso Marte	1.53	29.1	5.52	10.43	3.68	0.00	11.4
John Grabow	5.47	26.1	11.62	7.86	4.44	1.03	(-0.5)
Tony Armas Jr.	7.57	44.0	12.07	6.55	4.30	1.84	(-12.1)
Shawn Chacon	3.48	72.1	8.46	7.47	4.35	0.62	17.4
Masumi Kuwata	6.60	15.0	7.20	4.80	4.80	1.80	(-2.8)

The bullpen has been a mixed bag. Matt Capps and Damaso Marte have both been very good, and Shawn Chacon has a 2.72 ERA as a reliever. Everyone else out there has been throwing batting practice.

WPA Top Two
Matt Capps, 2.17 WPA
Shawn Chacon, 1.53 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Salomon Torres, -1.03 WPA
Josh Sharpless, -0.66 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP
Josh Phelps	Bench1	19	.267	.421	.267	0	0	0.3
Jose Castillo	Bench2	129	.238	.271	.328	0	0	(-4.2)
Cesar Izturis#	Bench3	3	.333	.333	.333	0	0	0.0
Rajai Davis	Bench4	54	.267	.358	.333	5	2	1.1
Ryan Doumit#	Bench5	213	.293	.361	.492	1	1	14.3

Ryan Doumit actually plays part time, which is a travesty because he is probably their best hitter. There is no reason that Nate McLouth and his .296 on-base percentage should be glomming up plate appearances in the outfield when you've got Doumit on the bench.

Manager

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	128	16th
Stolen Base Attempts	53	14th
Sacrifice Bunts	38	8th

Jim Tracy didn't really know what he was doing in Los Angeles when he had a good team, and he's even farther out to sea in Pittsburgh with this group.

Key Injuries

Jose Bautista

Chris Duffy

Zach Duke

Payroll

Team Payroll	MLB Rank
$38,604,500	27th

Coming off a disappointing loss in the series finale against the Padres, the Mets roll into Los Angeles (again) to play a four-game set against the NL West leading Dodgers.

Record

NL WEST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
LA Dodgers	54	41	.568	-	28-21	26-20	440	399	Won 1	6-4
San Diego	52	41	.559	1	27-21	25-20	395	323	Won 1	4-6
Arizona	50	46	.521	4.5	27-20	23-26	394	421	Won 1	3-7
Colorado	48	46	.511	5.5	26-19	22-27	463	463	Won 3	7-3

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
54.	41.	440	399	51.8	43.2	54.4	40.6	53.7	41.3

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Dodgers won the National League Wild Card last season and have improved themselves this year, currently atop a very competitive NL West. Their run differential supports their actual record, and they are coming off a series win against the Phillies which would have helped the Mets more if they could have won another game or two against the Padres.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
* Derek Lowe	8	8	3.05	133.0	8.32	6.63	2.71	0.54	30.9
* Brad Penny	11	1	2.33	123.2	7.93	6.55	2.69	0.22	45.3
Chad Billingsley	6	0	3.56	65.2	7.54	8.77	3.97	0.96	14.2
* Mark Hendrickson	4	5	4.54	83.1	9.72	7.34	2.48	0.97	6.1
* Brett Tomko	2	7	5.88	72.0	11.12	7.75	3.25	1.12	(-8.1)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

This list would look a lot more imposing if Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf weren't on the disabled list. Regardless, Brad Penny has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season and Derek Lowe has been extremely impressive as well. Hendrickson and Tomko began the year in the bullpen but were promoted to starting roles as the rest of the rotation caught the injury bug. Interesting that Lowe and Penny have very similar peripherals and not completely disparate ERAs, but Lowe is 8-8 and Penny is 11-1.

WPA Top Two
Brad Penny, 2.81 WPA
Derek Lowe, 1.81 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Brett Tomko, -0.80 WPA
Mark Hendrickson, -0.76 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP	NL Rank
Russell Martin	C	372	.314	.387	.492	17	3	37.4	1/31
James Loney*	1B	114	.363	.421	.549	0	1	11.7	10/24
Jeff Kent	2B	356	.281	.362	.470	1	2	18.9	5/26
Rafael Furcal#	SS	398	.278	.341	.361	10	4	9.0	9/25
Nomar Garciaparra	3B	351	.274	.319	.332	2	1	(-5.1)	24/30
Luis Gonzalez*	LF	356	.288	.374	.463	5	0	20.0	8/31
Juan Pierre*	CF	430	.286	.316	.339	38	9	5.7	11/29
Andre Ethier*	RF	303	.301	.369	.459	0	3	13.4	6/28

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Pretty decent lineup now that James Loney is playing full time at first and Nomar Garciaparra has been shifted to third. Nomar doesn't really have the defensive skill to play well at the hot corner, but his miserable batting line is somewhat less miserable now that it isn't pinned to first base. Luis Gonzalez doesn't have the power he once did, but he's a doubles machine and still gets on base with good frequency. Juan Pierre is an offensive and defensive sinkhole and is in the first year of a five-year deal that may represent the worst signing in baseball history. For the paltry sum of $25,000 the Dodgers could have avoided this and possibly have Shane Victorino playing centerfield instead. Russell Martin is the class of the NL catching corps. Paul Lo Duca is a fiery emotional leader. Take your pick (hint: it's Martin).

WPA Top Two
Russell Martin, 1.87 WPA
Wilson Betemit, 1.12 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Juan Pierre, -1.55 WPA
Nomar Garciaparra, -1.05 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Takashi Saito	1.59	39.2	5.45	10.66	1.13	0.91	17.8
Jonathan Broxton	2.57	49.0	7.16	10.29	3.86	0.00	13.5
Joe Beimel	3.73	41.0	7.68	5.27	2.63	0.00	7.6
Rudy Seanez	3.25	44.1	9.14	8.93	2.44	1.02	10.6
Eric Stults	5.06	10.2	13.50	5.06	4.22	2.53	0.6
D.J. Houlton	4.15	8.2	7.27	5.19	4.15	2.08	0.4

Takashi Saito is ridiculous. His K/BB is over 9.4(!!). The Mets really need to work on their Pacific Rim scouting. They bring in Dae Sung Koo, the Dodgers get this guy. Jonathan Broxton has been mostly dominant as well, and Rudy Seanez rounds out one of the best bullpen back-ends in all of baseball. Maybe not quite as good as San Diego's, but not far off. San Diego has greater depth, as after Seanez the reliability of the Dodger pen begins to fall off precipitously.

WPA Top Two
Takashi Saito, 3.08 WPA
Jonathan Broxton, 1.57 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Brett Tomko, -0.83 WPA
Yhency Brazoban, -0.34 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP
Mike Lieberthal	Bench1	52	.265	.308	.286	0	0	(-0.7)
Wilson Betemit#	Bench2	178	.233	.354	.493	0	0	8.4
Ramon Martinez	Bench3	80	.155	.228	.183	1	0	(-7.8)
Matt Kemp	Bench4	110	.382	.418	.569	3	2	13.1
Olmedo Saenz	Bench5	88	.211	.341	.394	0	0	1.2

Matt Kemp is actually part of an outfield rotation with Andre Ethier and, to a lesser extent, Luis Gonzalez. The reality is that Juan Pierre should be relegated to bench duties and the other three should be in there every day. Whichever of the three is on the bench on any given night provides a great late-inning weapon, and Wilson Betemit has been productive given sporadic playing time.

Manager

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	150	7th
Stolen Base Attempts	109	2nd
Sacrifice Bunts	34	10th

The Dodgers are second in the league in attempted stolen bases, trailing only the Mets. Manager Grady Little has given most of the team a green light to steal at will, and with Pierre and Rafael Furcal at the top of the lineup they take advantage of that (when they manage to get on base, that is).

Key Injuries

Jason Schmidt

Randy Wolf

Chin-Hui Tsao

Yhency Brazoban

Payroll

Team Payroll	MLB Rank
$108,704,524	6th

Record

NL EAST         W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA
NY Mets        60  41  .594  ----  30-21  30-20  539  462
Atlanta        48  53  .475  12.0  22-25  26-28  536  513
Florida        47  53  .470  12.5  25-24  22-29  463  468
Philadelphia   46  53  .465  13.0  24-29  22-24  491  521
Washington     46  56  .451  14.5  26-24  20-32  473  523

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
48   53    536    513    52.7   48.3   49.7   51.3   49.6   51.4

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

Starting Rotation

                  W   L    ERA    IP      H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
John Smoltz       8   5   3.55   147.0   8.57   8.08   2.02   1.04   40.2
Tim Hudson*       8   8   4.87   136.2   9.75   5.60   3.29   0.86   11.4
Horacio Ramirez*  5   3   4.04    62.1  10.40   4.19   2.89   0.58   10.8
Chuck James*      4   1   3.53    43.1   7.48   6.02   2.91   1.87   11.5
Jason Shiell      0   2   7.00     9.0  10.00   8.00   4.00   2.00  (-0.9)

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

The Braves have struggled to get consistent starting pitching all year. John Smoltz has been a workhorse, but they haven't gotten much out of anyone else. Tim Hudson's ERA is approaching 5, and he's walking more batters than usual. Horacio Ramirez is left-handed, so he has that going for him. The Braves are excited about Chuck James, who has pitched well to this point and is second in the rotation in VORP despite pitching just 43.1 innings.

WPA Top Two
John Smoltz, 184.8% WPA
Horacio Ramirez, 124.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Jorge Sosa, -176.0% WPA
John Thomson, -78.7% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Brian Mccann*       C    278   .341   .399   .549    2   0   30.1     2/30
Adam Laroche*       1B   348   .277   .346   .552    0   2   18.8     9/22
Marcus Giles        2B   409   .249   .342   .367    8   4    6.4    17/24
Edgar Renteria      SS   423   .322   .400   .476   12   4   37.3     1/19
Chipper Jones#      3B   358   .332   .419   .560    5   1   36.9     3/21
Ryan Langerhans*    LF   269   .249   .338   .392    0   2  (-1.6)   22/23
Andruw Jones        CF   422   .276   .353   .530    3   1   29.8     2/24
Jeffrey Francoeur   RF   437   .263   .286   .456    1   6  (-3.1)   16/19

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Edgar Renteria has been reborn now that he has returned to the National League. He is leading NL shortstops in VORP and has an outstanding .400 on-base percentage. Brian Mccann has been terrific as well, and trails only Michael Barrett in VORP among catchers. Chipper Jones has actually been relatively healthy this year, and he's putting up his typical gaudy rate stats. Forgiving the fact that he has played for the Braves all of these years, Jones has perhaps been one of the most under-appreciated hitters of the past decade or so. Andruw Jones is doing his best to prove that last year wasn't a fluke, as he trails only a certain Carlos Beltran in VORP among centerfielders.

Marcus Giles isn't hitting for any power, but he has drawn enough walks to make his on-base percentage somewhat respectable. Still, a disappointing season for him to be sure. Jeff Francoeur is the outfielder equivalent of Tony Batista, and unless he improves his approach at the plate you might see him in the Japanese leagues before too long. Adam Laroche has had a nice year for himself, getting on base at a decent clip and socking many more homeruns than I would have expected of him. In fact, his VORP is higher than that of Carlos Delgado.

Even with Jones in center, the Braves have one of the least productive outfields in the league. The make up for it by having a terrific left-side of the infield.

WPA Top Two
Andruw Jones, 204.1% WPA
Edgar Renteria, 173.5% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Matt Diaz, -112.2% WPA
Ryan Langerhans, -99.6% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA    IP    H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Bob Wickman         0.00    3.0   3.00   6.00   0.00   0.00    2.1
Jorge Sosa          5.59   85.1  10.86   5.80   3.27   2.11  (-3.2)
Ken Ray             3.26   47.0   7.09   7.09   4.21   1.15   15.2
Oscar Villarreal    4.26   50.2  10.30   4.80   3.38   1.60    7.6
Macay McBride       4.55   31.2   7.96   5.68   6.82   0.28    3.7
Chad Paronto        2.84   31.2   7.96   8.24   3.69   0.57   11.7
Tyler Yates         3.22   22.1   7.66   7.66   5.64   0.81    6.3

Ken Ray and Chad Paronto have been quite good, and even former Met Tyler Yates has been decent despite walking almost six batters per nine innings (!). Not pictured: Chris Reitsma and his 8.68 ERA in 28 innings, Peter Moylan and his 7.04 ERA in 7.2 innings, Lance Cormier and his 6.12 ERA in 32.1 innings, and Kevin Barry and his 5.91 ERA in 10.2 innings.

WPA Top Two
Macay McBride, 34.5% WPA
Lance Cormier, 32.5% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Mike Remlinger, -145.1% WPA
Jorge Sosa, -136.6% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP
Todd Pratt          C    116   .212   .261   .317    1   0  (-5.3)   
Scott Thorman*      1B    72   .246   .278   .493    0   0    0.4   
Pete Orr*           IF    87   .205   .224   .301    2   2  (-6.4)   
Wilson Betemit#     IF   218   .281   .341   .497    2   1   11.4   
Matt Diaz           OF   165   .314   .344   .438    3   2    4.7 

Wilson Betemit and Matt Diaz have acquitted themselves quite well. Betemit has filled in at a variety of positions, and Mets fans will remember him as the guy who hit the would-be game-winning homerun off of Billy Wagner earlier in the season before Cliff Floyd went yard later that inning to tie things up.

Manager

Bobby Cox has been the Braves' manager since forever.

                         # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                  175        2/16
Stolen Base Attempts        64       11/16
Sacrifice Bunts             44        9/16

Key Injuries

Brian Jordan
John Thomson
Kyle Davies
Phil Stockman

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$92,461,852      8/30

Record

NL CENTRAL        W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA
St. Louis        56  41  .577  ----  31-19  25-22  491  465
Cincinnati       52  47  .525   5.0  27-25  25-22  496  509
Houston          47  52  .475  10.0  28-22  19-30  447  473
Milwaukee        47  52  .475  10.0  29-20  18-32  460  529
Chicago Cubs     37  60  .381  19.0  17-28  20-32  393  497
Pittsburgh       35  65  .350  22.5  24-26  11-39  452  525

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
37   60    396    497    38.3   58.7   40.9   56.1   40.9   56.1

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

Starting Rotation

                   W   L    ERA    IP     H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Carlos Zambrano*  10   3   3.11   139.0   6.15   9.13   4.92   0.91   44.1
Mark Prior*        0   4   8.14    24.1  11.47   8.88   4.81   1.85  (-7.4)
Greg Maddux*       7  11   4.92   124.1  10.06   5.14   1.59   1.01   14.8
Carlos Marmol      3   4   4.50    48.0   7.31   7.69   6.19   1.31    8.8
Sean Marshall      5   8   4.98   103.0   9.00   5.85   4.02   1.14    9.9

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Other than Carlos Zambrano, there's not a whole lot to get excited about here. Greg Maddux won his first five starts of the season and has gone 2-11 since. Mark Prior has been awful since coming off the disabled list, but I think he'll figure things out if he can just stay on the field.

WPA Top Two
Carlos Zambrano, 220.4% WPA
Sean Marshall, 17.1% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Mark Prior, -112.1% WPA
Glendon Rusch, -80.1% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS    VORP   NL Rank
Michael Barrett     C    291   .333   .397   .535    0   0    29.9     1/30
Derrek Lee          1B   144   .261   .375   .429    5   4     3.1    20/22
Todd Walker*        2B   339   .282   .355   .389    0   1     7.4    16/24
Ronny Cedeno        SS   355   .252   .278   .333    5   7  (-10.8)   18/19
Aramis Ramirez      3B   390   .266   .326   .511    1   1    13.6    10/20
Matt Murton         LF   294   .278   .345   .373    4   1     0.0    19/22
Juan Pierre*        CF   443   .279   .320   .369   36  10     7.4    11/24
Jacque Jones*       RF   340   .291   .319   .498    6   1    12.6     8/19

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

The best hitter on the Cubs? That'd be catcher Michael Barrett, who has not only been the best offensive catcher in the league this season, but he fulfilled every baseball fan's dream of punching A.J. Pierzynski right in the grillpiece. Derrek Lee has been back for a couple of months but has yet to regain his MVP-like stroke from a year ago. Aramis Ramirez is finally coming out of his prolonged slump, and Juan Pierre, while not an awful player, is perhaps finally being recognized as the overrated speedster that he is. Jacque Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubbies, though he still has zero plate discipline (12 walks in well over 300 PAs) and still can't hit lefties worth a damn (.205/.222/.364). Todd Walker is hitting just enough to keep off the bench, though his defense may push him down around replacement level. Ronny Cedeno is one of the worst everyday players in baseball right now, though Rob Neyer said the same thing about Jose Reyes last season so you never know.

WPA Top Two
Jacque Jones, 167.3% WPA
Michael Barrett, 109.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ronny Cedeno, -278.0% WPA
Juan Pierre, -173.6% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP    H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Ryan Dempster       4.33    43.2   7.63   8.66   3.92   0.82    3.9
Bobby Howry         3.66    46.2   8.87   8.10   2.31   0.96   12.0
Scott Eyre*         2.22    44.2   7.25  10.07   4.23   1.21   17.7
Glendon Rusch*      7.14    58.0  10.40   8.38   4.19   2.79  (-8.5)
Will Ohman          4.10    41.2   7.13   9.07   3.67   1.30    9.5
Michael Wuertz      6.35     5.2  14.29  11.12   6.35   3.18  (-2.3)
David Aardsma       5.68    19.0   8.05   6.63   7.11   1.89    0.0
Roberto Novoa       5.16    45.1  10.52   6.15   4.57   2.38  (-5.0)

Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre have been terrific. Ryan Dempster has been okay. The rest of this group are probably nice guys.

WPA Top Two
Scott Eyre, 123.1% WPA
Angel Guzman, 8.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ryan Dempster, -149.2% WPA
Scott Williamson, -49.2% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP
Henry Blanco        C    114   .240   .289   .442    0   0    0.8   
Phil Nevin          1B   120   .252   .333   .495    0   0    3.7   
Neifi Perez#        IF   194   .249   .260   .351    0   1  (-6.0)   
John Mabry*         1B   116   .222   .328   .333    0   0  (-2.6)   
Angel Pagan#        OF    57   .241   .281   .444    0   1  (-1.2)   

Mostly dreck, though Nevin and Pagan have provided some pop off the bench, and Blanco is not terrible for a backup catcher.

Manager

Dusty Baker's reputation as a great manager likely flew out the window over the past couple of seasons. This is the guy who made the following bold proclamation in the face of the OBP revolution:

"Who's been the champions the last seven, eight years?" he asked "Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? Walks help. But you ain't going to walk across the plate. You're going to hit across the plate. That's the school I come from.

It's called hitting, and it ain't called walking. Do you ever see the top 10 walking? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk. But the name of the game is to hit."

Emphasis is mine.

                        # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                 140       14/16
Stolen Base Attempts      100        5/16
Sacrifice Bunts            46        6/16

Key Injuries

Kerry Wood
Freddie Bynum

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$94,841,166      7/30

Record

NL CENTRAL      W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA
St. Louis      53  41  .564   ---  31-19  22-22  477  463
Cincinnati     50  46  .521   4.0  25-24  25-22  481  493
Houston        46  50  .479   8.0  28-22  18-28  436  458
Milwaukee      46  50  .479   8.0  29-20  17-30  444  514
Chicago Cubs   37  57  .394  16.0  17-28  20-29  383  476
Pittsburgh     35  62  .361  19.5  24-26  11-36  447  511

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
46   50    436    458    45.8   50.2   44.0   52.0   42.5   53.5

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Astros have performed about three wins above their expected third-order winning percentage. Whether this is due to good managing, "small ball", or just luck, it's hard to tell, but in this instance I would guess luck. The Astros have been disproportionately successful in one-run games, going 15-9 this season. Unless they have an unusual propensity for winning close games, we would expect that to even out over teh course of the season.

Starting Rotation

                  W   L    ERA    IP     H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Roy Oswalt*       6   7   3.22   131.1   9.46   5.96   1.64   0.82   40.0
Roger Clemens     2   3   2.43    33.1   7.83   7.29   2.43   0.54   10.7
Andy Pettitte     8  10   5.08   133.0  10.89   7.31   3.32   1.35    8.6
Brandon Backe*    1   0   2.25     8.0   4.50   3.38   2.25   2.25    3.5
Taylor Buchholz*  6   7   5.31   101.2   7.97   6.29   2.57   1.50    8.0

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

With Roger Dodger back in the fold the Astros have a formidable one-two punch at the front end of the rotation. The biggest problem for the 'Stros' pitching has been the disappearance of last year's model of Andy Pettitte. He has been walking far too many batters and giving up an absurd number of hits. We're obviously not privy to these things, but you have to wonder if he's concealing an injury and/or tipping his pitches. Pettitte has been too good a pitcher for too long to just fall off a cliff like this, so I'm sure it's pretty frustrating down in Houston.

WPA Top Two
Roy Oswalt, 253.5% WPA
Christopher Sampson, 48.1% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Wandy Rodriguez, -74.3% WPA
Andy Pettitte, -58.1% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Brad Ausmus         C    299   .243   .308   .303    3   1  (-8.2)   27/29
Lance Berkman#      1B   386   .318   .404   .599    1   1   39.5     2/22
Craig Biggio        2B   375   .268   .332   .426    1   1   12.0    12/24
Adam Everett        SS   324   .236   .293   .318    3   3  (-7.6)   17/19
Aubrey Huff*        3B    30   .240   .367   .440    0   0    0.8    18/20
Preston Wilson      LF   375   .279   .317   .419    5   2    1.0    17/21
Chris Burke         CF   235   .296   .378   .498    7   0   19.5     4/25
Orlando Palmeiro*   RF    81   .222   .291   .264    0   1  (-5.1)   16/20

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game and Chris Burke appears to be finally coming into his own. Huff is still an unknown quantity in the NL, but the rest of these guys are not impressive. Biggio you can forgive somewhat because he's about 100, but Brad Ausmus continues to be one of the worst everyday hitters in all of baseball, Preston Wilson continues to fall well short of the expectations heaped on him as a youngster, Adam Everett can't hit a lick, and Orlando Palmeiro ... *shudder*. A word of advice to Mets' pitchers: do not let Berkman beat you. Walk him if you have to, because there's nothing but dreck as far as the eye can see.

WPA Top Two
Lance Berkman, 258.3% WPA
Morgan Ensberg, 66.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Brad Ausmus, -169.8% WPA
Adam Everett, -111.1% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP    H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Brad Lidge          5.60    45.0   8.00  12.80   4.80   1.20    1.9
Dan Wheeler         3.57    40.1   8.48   8.26   2.90   0.67    9.8
Chad Qualls         3.48    54.1   7.29   4.97   2.65   0.99   16.4
Russ Springer       3.93    34.1   6.55   7.08   2.62   1.57    8.6
Trever Miller*      4.72    26.2   9.11  11.14   3.04   2.03    4.4
Dave Borkowski      3.96    38.2   8.38   7.91   2.33   0.70    9.7
Fernando Nieve      4.44    75.0   8.64   6.12   2.76   1.92   13.7

Other than Brad Lidge, who has been walking the ballpark this season, the core of the Astros' bullpen has remained solid. Ex-Met Dan Wheeler has been terrific as usual, and Chad QUalls and Russ Springer continue to pitch well in middle relief.

WPA Top Two
Chad Qualls, 140.0% WPA
Dave Borkowski, 93.2% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Mike Gallo, -111.0% WPA
Brad Lidge, -38.6% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP
Eric Munson         C    119   .219   .303   .381   0   0   (-1.4)   
Eric Bruntlett      IF   105   .256   .346   .322   2   1     0.1   
Mike Lamb           IF   245   .321   .373   .520   1   3    15.3   
Luke Scott          OF     9   .333   .333   .444   0   0     0.3   
Willy Taveras       OF   336   .259   .310   .311  13   5   (-5.7)

Mike Lamb has been starting a lot of games and is really the only useful bat in this group. Willy Taveras, who almost won the rookie of the year in 2005, has been dreadful and has basically been replaced in centerfield by Burke.

Manager

The Astros are managed by Phil Garner, who is in his third season in Houston and 14th overall.

                         # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                  146        8/16
Stolen Base Attempts        59       14/16
Sacrifice Bunts             55        2/16

Key Injuries

Morgan Ensberg, 3B

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$92,101,503      9/30

The Marlins come to town for a four-game series, including a double-dip on Saturday, before the Mets' caravan heads to Pittsburgh for the All-Star break.

Record

NL EAST         W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA  Strk    L10
NY Mets        51  34  .600  ----  25-16  26-18  444  385  Won  3  4-6  
Philadelphia   38  46  .452  12.5  19-25  19-21  404  446  Lost 2  3-7  
Atlanta        38  48  .442  13.5  19-22  19-26  423  435  Won  2  6-4
Florida        36  46  .439  13.5  18-20  18-26  390  391  Lost 1  4-6
Washington     38  49  .437  14.0  20-21  18-28  394  452  Won  1  5-5  

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
36   46    390    391    40.9   41.1   39.2   42.8   37.8   44.2

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The "upstart" Marlins are actually underperforming their expected record by almost two wins, and are underperforming their raw pythagorean record by almost *five* wins.

Starting Rotation

                   W   L    ERA    IP     H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Dontrelle Willis*  5   7   3.96   116.0   9.78   5.20   2.64   0.78   21.8
Scott Olsen*       6   4   4.17    86.1   7.40   7.71   3.96   1.25   11.5
Ricky Nolasco*     4   4   3.97    70.1   9.98   6.40   2.30   1.28    8.8
Josh  Johnson*     6   2   2.34    80.2   7.25   7.70   4.13   0.67   26.8
Anibal Sanchez     1   0   6.60    15.0  12.60   4.80   4.20   1.80  (-2.3)

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Willis is the elder statesman at 24 years old, with everyone else clocking in at either 22 or 23. Compare that to the Mets, who have a 40-year-old, a 34-year-old, a 35-year-old, a 36-year-old*, and a 33-year-old (not counting Maine, who is just 25, and Pelfrey, who has yet to join the team). As happens with young pitchers, most of these guys struggle with their control a bit, and three of them have given up more than a homerun every nine innings. Willis has rebounded from an atrocious start and is pitching much better of late.

* El Duque is listed as being 36 years old, though it's probably closer to 46.

WPA Top Two
Josh Johnson, 167.0% WPA
Scott Olsen, 73.4% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Brian Moehler, -152.0% WPA
Sergio Mitre, -27.9% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Miguel Olivo        C    214   .291   .321   .492    2   2   10.6     7/24
Mike Jacobs*        1B   281   .274   .352   .492    2   0   13.1    10/22
Dan Uggla           2B   330   .311   .368   .519    5   2   30.9     2/21
Hanley Ramirez      SS   347   .274   .341   .411   25   4   19.5     4/19
Miguel Cabrera      3B   355   .342   .434   .571    7   5   42.2     1/19
Josh Willingham     LF   283   .267   .353   .465    2   0   10.5    10/21
Reggie Abercrombie  CF   221   .211   .279   .337    4   4  (-7.4)   23/23
Jeremy Hermida*     RF   175   .281   .364   .412    2   0    5.2     9/19

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Miguel Cabrera continues to be one of the best young hitters in the game, and is pacing NL third basemen in VORP. Dan Uggla, a Rule V draftee that Florida nabbed from the prospect-rich Diamondbacks, has been the second-best player on the team. Hanley Ramirez has been great (for a shortstop) with the bat as well, and has swiped 25 bags in just 29 attempts, an 86% success rate. Everyone else here has been good-to-great, with the exception of Reggie Abercrombie, who has been dreadful in just about every conceivable way.

WPA Top Two
Miguel Cabrera, 226.1% WPA
Daniel Uggla, 76.6% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Reginald Abercrombie, -131.3% WPA
Alfredo Amezaga, -78.4% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Joe Borowski        3.94    32.0   7.88   7.31   4.50   1.12    7.3
Logan Kensing       3.33    24.1   6.29  10.73   5.92   0.37    7.4
Matt Herges         4.15    39.0  10.85   4.85   3.00   0.92    3.8
Jason Vargas        6.27    33.0  10.09   5.73   7.09   1.36  (-5.2)
Randy Messenger     2.81    32.0   8.72   6.47   2.25   0.56    8.3
Taylor Tankersley   2.35     7.2   7.04  10.57   7.04   0.00    2.1
Yusmeiro Petit      7.41    17.0  14.29   6.35   1.06   1.06  (-2.8)

Kensing and Messenger have both been very good, and Joe Borowski has been decent if unspectacular as the Marlins' closer. Tayler Tankersley has been solid in limited action, and former Met farmhand Yusmeiro Petit has been terrible, allowing more than fourteen hits every nine innings. His walk rate is terrific, but little else is worth writing home about. He's still a kid, though, so there's plenty of time for him to work things out.

WPA Top Two
Joe Borowski, 61.0% WPA
Taylor Tankersley, 51.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Matt Herges, -119.0% WPA
Jason Vargas, -80.3% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG  SB  CS   VORP
Matt Treanor        C    109   .202   .296   .277   0   1  (-5.5)   
Wes Helms           IF   122   .266   .325   .486   0   2    3.2   
Alfredo Amezaga#    IF   141   .250   .314   .355   6   4  (-0.4)   
Joe Borchard#       OF   141   .234   .326   .379   0   2  (-2.5)   
Cody Ross           OF    83   .222   .305   .375   0   0  (-1.5)

Other than Wes Helms, a bunch of dreck occupying the Marlins' bench.

Manager

After just one year as a coach -- Joe Torre's bench coach in 2005 -- Joe Girardi was handed the reigns of the shoestring-budgeted Marlins, and they have surprised everyone by not being any worse than the Braves, Nats and Phillies.

                        # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                 125       10/16
Stolen Base Attempts       89        2/16
Sacrifice Bunts            38        7/16

Key Injuries

Sergio Mitre, SP
Brian Moehler, SP
Carlos Martinez, RP

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$14,344,500     30/30

After a demoralizing 1-5 swing through Beantown and the Bronx, the Mets are in desperate need for the comfort of home and the impotence of the National League.

Record

NL CENTRAL     W   L   PCT   GB     HOME   ROAD    RS   RA
St. Louis     44  36  .550  ----   26-17  18-19   403  385
Cincinnati    44  38  .537   1.0   20-22  24-16   413  419
Houston       40  42  .488   5.0   25-18  15-24   377  406
Milwaukee     40  43  .482   5.5   25-17  15-26   383  450
Chicago Cubs  30  51  .370  14.5   14-25  16-26   328  425
Pittsburgh    28  55  .337  17.5   20-24   8-31   381  435

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
28   55    381    438    36.0   47.0   33.8   49.2   33.4   49.6

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Pirates have actually underperformed their expected record by more than five games, which is outrageously high for a half-season. In fact, their raw pythagorean record is a full *eight* games better than their actual record.

Starting Rotation

                  W   L    ERA    IP      H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9    VORP
Zach Duke*        5   7   4.92   106.0   10.44   5.26   3.40   0.85    11.3
Paul Maholm*      2   7   4.97    92.1   11.11   5.95   4.58   0.97     9.6
Ian Snell         7   6   5.00    93.2   10.67   7.21   3.36   1.15     7.5
Kip Wells*        0   3  15.19    10.2   16.88   3.38   5.91   1.69  (-11.2)
Tom Gorzelanny*   0   0   3.60     5.0   10.80  10.80   5.40   0.00     1.4

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Former ace Oliver Perez was recently demoted to AAA, so this is what's left. Kip Wells spent much of the season on the disabled list and the rest of it pitching poorly. Ian Snell is the only one with even respectable peripherals and his ERA is 5.00 even. The Pirates' struggles start with this rotation, and it's no wonder they are in the NL Central cellar. Again.

WPA Top Two
Ian Snell, 10.2% WPA
Tom Gorzelanny, 5.2% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Oliver Perez, -116.5% WPA
Kip Wells, -109.1% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Ron Paulino         C    221   .310   .362   .394    0   0    7.6     9/25
Sean Casey*         1B   164   .301   .384   .441    0   0    6.6    14/21
Jose Castillo       2B   308   .282   .338   .457    4   3   15.0     8/21
Freddy Sanchez      3B   291   .363   .399   .530    1   1   29.4     4/19
Jack Wilson         SS   316   .258   .297   .375    2   1    1.5    13/19
Jason Bay           LF   367   .281   .395   .536    6   2   26.6     2/21
Jose Bautista       CF   181   .258   .348   .535    1   2   10.2     8/22
Jeromy Burnitz*     RF   253   .226   .274   .426    1   1  (-6.4)   17/19

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Some fine hitters here, none moreso than Jason Bay, though Freddy Sanchez is having a breakout season at third base. With the exception of Jack Wilson (thankfully he won't be going to the All Star game), most of thtese guys can hit.

WPA Top Two
Freddy Sanchez, 76.6% WPA
Craig Wilson, 62.6% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Jeromy Burnitz, -169.2% WPA
Jack Wilson, -165.1% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP    H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Mike Gonzalez       2.67    33.2   8.29   8.55   5.35   0.27   12.8
Roberto Hernandez   2.43    37.0   8.27   6.32   4.14   0.73    8.0
Salomon Torres      4.50    54.0  10.50   5.50   2.67   1.00    6.6
Damaso Marte        3.38    29.1   8.90  11.66   4.30   0.92    6.0
John Grabow         5.57    32.1  11.13   6.96   4.18   1.67  (-0.1)
Matt Capps          3.53    43.1   9.14   6.65   1.04   1.04   12.4
Jonah Bayliss       3.00     3.0   9.00  12.00  12.00   0.00    1.0

Gonzalez and Hernandez have been impressive, though their walk rates leave a lot to be desired. Pretty decent collection of arms here, actually, and far superior to what they've got in the rotation.

WPA Top Two
Mike Gonzalez, 76.4% WPA
Salomon Torres, 28.7% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Damaso Marte, -70.7% WPA
Ryan Vogelsong, -60.6% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG  SB  CS    VORP
Humberto Cota       C     76   .229   .289   .243   0   0   (-4.4)   
Craig Wilson        1B   249   .275   .357   .505   1   0    11.7
Jose Hernandez      IF    81   .230   .287   .351   0   0   (-2.2)   
Joe Randa           3B   112   .243   .286   .350   0   0   (-3.6)
Mike Edwards        OF    18   .188   .235   .188   0   0   (-1.9)   
Nathan McLouth*     OF   208   .226   .296   .333   8   1   (-3.3)

Not much to write home about here except for Craig Wilson, who actually starts more often than Sean Casey at first base. Rotoworld lists Casey as the starter, so...

Manager

Jim Tracy is in his first season as manager of the Pirates after previously managing the Dodgers.

                        # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                 134        4/16
Stolen Base Attempts       39       15/16
Sacrifice Bunts            26       13/16

Key Injuries

Ryan Doumit
Victor Santos

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$46,867,750      27/30

The Mets did the Yankees no favors by getting swept by the Red Sox. A sweep of the Yankees would be the perfect capper.

Record

AL EAST       W   L   PCT   GB   HOME   ROAD    RS   RA
Boston       48  28  .632   ---  27-10  21-18  428  364
NY Yankees   44  32  .579   4.0  24-16  20-16  423  353
Toronto      44  34  .564   5.0  27-16  17-18  423  374
Baltimore    37  43  .463  13.0  24-21  13-22  393  446
Tampa Bay    34  45  .430  15.5  18-17  16-28  338  415

 W    L     RS    RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
44   32    423    353   44.6   31.4   48.2   27.8   48.2   27.8

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Yankees' expected record is actually about four wins better than their actual record, which means they have underperformed a bit; well, a lot really. Their straight pythagorean record is just a bit ahead (45-31), but when adjusted for strength of schedule and some other factors they would be expected to win a few more games.

Starting Rotation

                  W   L    ERA    IP       H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Randy Johnson*    9   6   4.84   100.1    8.52   7.62   2.96   1.35    7.6
Mike Mussina*     9   3   3.28   112.1    7.93   8.01   1.76   1.12   29.9
Chien-Ming Wang   8   3   4.01   112.1    9.29   3.04   2.16   0.48   21.9
Shawn Chacon      4   2   5.68    52.1   10.32   4.99   4.82   1.03  (-3.8)
Jaret Wright*     4   5   4.18    64.2   10.30   4.73   3.34   0.56    8.5

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Mussina has been very good this year, and Wang has been productive despite one of the worst strikeout rates I've ever seen. Shawn Chacon has done a fine job of regressing to the mean this season, and Jaret Wright is Jaret Wright. The Big Unit continues to pitch erratically and his strikeout rate is the lowest it's been since 1989.

WPA Top Two
Mike Mussina, 136.5% WPA
Chien-Ming Wang, 107.6% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Randy Johnson, -91.2% WPA
Aaron Small, -61.5% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   AL Rank
Jorge Posada#       C    260   .288   .400   .474    0   0   18.4     3/16
Jason Giambi*       1B   297   .266   .428   .620    1   0   32.3     1/19
Miguel Cairo        2B   121   .229   .288   .294    6   1  (-3.5)   14/18
Derek Jeter         SS   332   .331   .424   .458   15   2   34.6     2/16
Alex Rodriguez      3B   333   .279   .390   .496    8   3   21.7     1/17
Melky Cabrera#      LF   185   .255   .344   .335    3   2  (-2.8)   17/21
Johnny Damon*       CF   346   .295   .369   .477   16   4   24.3     5/18
Bernie Williams#    RF   254   .276   .316   .414    0   0    1.3    15/20
Andy Phillips       DH   136   .289   .316   .492    2   1    4.4    10/15

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

There are definitely some holes in this lineup as a result of all of the injuries. There are five terrific offensive players here (Posada, Giambi, Jeter, Rodriguez and Damon) and five other bats that range from passable (Williams) to inept (Cairo). If Sheff and Matsui were healthy this lineup would be a monster. As it is, 1-5 it's terrifying and 6-9 it's pretty shabby. Actually, Phillips can hit a bit, but his strikezone judgement is atrocious (31-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio!). WPA Top Two
Derek Jeter, 301.2% WPA
Jason Giambi, 212.9% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Miguel Cairo, -111.3% WPA
Robinson Cano, -71.8% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Mariano Rivera      1.88    43.0   6.91   6.70   1.67   0.00   19.2
Kyle Farnsworth     4.89    35.0   9.77  10.29   5.40   0.51    3.7
Ron Villone         2.45    33.0   6.00   6.82   5.18   0.27   10.3
Scott Proctor       4.22    49.0   7.90   7.16   3.86   1.29   10.2
Mike Myers          0.68    13.1   6.75   7.43   2.70   0.68    8.0
Matt Smith          0.00     8.0   3.38   6.75   6.75   0.00    5.4
Theodore Beam       4.91     3.2  12.27   7.36   2.45   2.45    0.4

Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. His strikeout rate is down a bit, but even when guys make contact they rarely get the ball out of the infield. Rivera is the measuring stick for all closers past, present, and future. Ron Villone has been a nice surprise for the Yankees, but Kyle Farnsworth and his bloated contract has been a big disappointment.

WPA Top Two
Mariano Rivera, 175.8% WPA
Ron Villone, 53.9% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Scott Proctor, -59.6% WPA
Tanyon Sturtze, -52.3% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS    VORP
Kelly Stinnett      C     74   .224   .278   .313    0   0   (-3.0)   
Bubba Crosby*       OF    61   .245   .310   .321    2   1   (-2.0)   
Kevin Reese         OF     8   .429   .500   .429    0   0     0.9   

Any strength that the Yankees bench had has been used to plug holes in the starting lineup left by their hobbled veterans. Stinnett and Crosby are useless with the bat and Kevin Reese's eight plate appearances aren't much to go on.

Manager

Joe Torre has been managing the Yankees forever; his tactical management can be spotty at times, but his command of his clubhouse and of the media is unrivaled (sound familiar?)

                         # Times    AL Rank
Pinch Hit                   32       10/14
Stolen Base Attempts        78        5/14
Sacrifice Bunts             17        7/14

Key Injuries

Gary Sheffield
Hideki Matsui
Robinson Cano
Tanyon Sturtze
Darrell Rasner
Carl Pavano
Octavio Dotel

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$198,662,180     1/30