Predictions Here

by peeder on Apr 4, 2005 3:48 AM EDT

Getcher predictions heeer

(You know, beeer heeeer)

OK I'll make this simple. I think the Mets will lose about 10 more games than expected (i.e. league average) in the bullpen. That will be the major story this year. We won in 2000 with an outstanding pen. No longer.

So on the record, the Mets will go something like 78-84 and we will think a lot about what our future holds with Beltran Wright and Reyes making huge impact (in that order). Wright or Reyes may even make the All-star team. It will be an entertaining enough season...a couple pickups after the break will help, but this is no championship team.

Even so, if we do win this year, my expectations are low enough that I will jump for joy even more than I have ever done.

Poll

Your predictions (games won)

95-99

0 votes

Over 100 wins

1 votes

Less than 60 wins

1 votes

60-64

0 votes

65-69

0 votes

70-74

0 votes

75-79

2 votes

80-84

12 votes

85-89

10 votes

90-94

3 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

A winning team is good enough for this year.

I think the Mets will field a good, competitive, winning team for the first time in years. I think they'll finish around 87 wins and third place in the division, behind the Braves and whichever team from the Marlins and Phillies doesn't fall apart (one will). Just praying that Wilpon doesn't think that makes them "in the running" enough to sell the (rest of) the farm.

by anonymous on Apr 4, 2005 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

Please don't call me a jinx!

That meltdown by Loop was enough to make a grown man cry.

by peeder on Apr 4, 2005 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

Loop

I have a feeling the pen is going to cost us 10 games easy this year. What could be a 90-win team will be more like 80 to 82.

by blindbernard on Apr 6, 2005 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

Stats

Interesting observation. How would you calculate "games lost by the bullpen," just looking back on last year's stats, say?

I guess the simplest way would be to look for any point at which the team was in the lead where that lead was blown by a reliever. Yeah, you'll get some double (or even triple hits) for games which featured multiple lead changes, but that should give you a good assessment.

So how do you figure that out? Do you need to look at each box score? Or is there an easier way? Will the number of losses that the relievers took give you the full data set?

Last year, Mets relievers lost 39 games. However, among that group of relievers, there were 20 starts. Without more detailed data, I don't know how many of those losses occurred in relief roles.

by DavidNYC on Apr 6, 2005 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

RE: Stats

Even given the appropriate data, I'm not entirely sure that the results would tell us anything too meaningful, and it most certainly wouldn't tell us anything predictive.

A reliever's job, much like a starter, is to prevent runs from scoring. To that end, the best thing a pitcher can do to minimize runs allowed is to keep walks, homeruns, hits and HBP to a minimum while maximizing strikeouts (and other outs, though a pitcher admittedly has far less if any control over non-strikeout outs).

Pitchers that succeed in these areas will succeed overall; those that fail will fail. These "peripheral" stats have much more predictive value moving forward than any junk stat like holds, saves, or "games lost".

by Eric Simon on Apr 7, 2005 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions