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I Love Lamp

I just posted an article over at MetsGeek called Dissecting Carpenter, which basically just lays out his some dramatic platoon splits, specifically Home vs Away and RHB vs LHB. Both splits seem to favor the Mets, as Carpenter struggles against lefties and on the road and the Mets' lineup is chock full of left-handed bats. Oh yea, they're also playing at homem, which qualifies as a road game for Carpenter.

Last night was one of those must-wins, and the Mets won it. Tom Glavine was terrific, again, though he induced some timely at-em balls in the early part of the game that could have led to some St. Louis runs had they been placed differently. He had the fortune of a couple of very nice double plays, he kept his pitch count low, and he is in a good position to start a potential Game 5 on three days rest.

Cliff Floyd hurt himself again, although it's probably more accurate to say that he simply rediscovered an existing injury. His balky achilles, which forced him from Game 3 of the LDS, acted up again and, like the last game, he had to be pulled early in the contest and replaced by wunderkind Endy Chavez. You can count on Endy being back in the lineup tonight, though more than likely he'll be batting in the eight-hole instead of sixth.

Man oh man was I cursing at Guillermo Mota in the eighth inning. He retired the first two batters with ease, and then proceeded to walk David Eckstein on four pitches and start Preston Wilson off 3-0. Needless to say he was on my shit list, as another baserunner would have brought Albert Pujols to the plate in a situation where he could do massive amounts of damage, namely a three-run homer that would have given the Cardinals a 3-2 lead. To Mota's credit, he worked the count back to 3-2 and, after a number of foul balls by Wilson, got him to pop out to Delgado.

One of the biggest plays of the game was Jose Valentin's glovework with one out in the top of the ninth. Billy Wagner had come on and retired Pujols on a lineout to first. Juan Encarnacion then grounded one sharply up the middle that Valentin ranged far to his right to glove and executed a jump-throw to first that nailed Encarnacion for the second out and, much to my surprise, drew approximately zero comparisons to Derek Jeter from the Vice President and Recording Secretary of his fan club who both happened to be calling the game for Fox. Wagner made us sweat a bit by walking Scott Rolen before getting fu-man Spiezio to loop out to Valentin to end it.

Paul Lo Duca continues to impress me as I shovel extra helpings of crow into my face. I did not advocate the acquisition of Lo Duca during the offseason, I felt Ramon Castro was just as good offensively, cost less money, and I felt that the things Lo Duca brought to the table that would be absent from any box score were not justification enough to trade a solid pitching prospect for. I was completely wrong, I love the guy, he is exactly the type of player and person that this team needs and, for what it's worth, if there's a guy on third base with less than two outs he is the only guy I want up at the plate. He has made a believer out of me, and I am not often a patron of the kool aid.

Good times were had by all, so good in fact that we should come out tonight and do it again. And then again tomorrow. And the next day. And so forth.

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Don't feel bad
I called him "Mintcabbage with a mask" when the trade happened.

Now he's Bench with a beard.

by peeder on Oct 13, 2006 1:51 AM EDT   0 recs

question
Who's the President of the Derek Jeter Fan Club?

Is it Mariah Carey?

by hotspur on Oct 13, 2006 7:53 AM EDT   0 recs

His Mommy and Daddy!
Awwww!  Isn't that sweet?

by IanB in MD on Oct 13, 2006 3:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Eric,
I am right there with you on Lo Duca.  Although I liked him from the beginning, I offered plenty of reasons why there was no reason to get Lo Duca and did not feel that his "intangibles" would make him worth it.  (to be fair to me, one of the biggest reasons I did not want him was his annual second-half swoon, a "trend" that he completely obliterated this year.)  The thing about Lo Duca, he's actually a very good baseball player, and perfect for this mets team.  His gamerness/intangibles/grit/veteran leadership is all just gravy (although extremely tasty gravy).  

I will say that seldom am I so happy to have been so wrong.  

Let's go Maine!  (got to slot in somebody I was right about)

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Oct 13, 2006 11:27 AM EDT   0 recs

let's not overlook
the fact that LoDuca is basically having a career year with the bat (or at least one of the few best hitting years of his career) despite the fact that he's at an age where a downturn can reasonably be forecast.  It's great that he's holding up so well, and I absolutely agree that it's been great to have him on the team this year.  The Mets wouldn't be where they are without him.  But he continues to be a bad bet going forward -- age can catch up with a catcher very quickly.

by anonymous on Oct 13, 2006 1:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and lest that come off too gloomy,
Let's go Mets!  I am rooting for LoDuca to continue his hot hitting for years to come, by the way -- I just hope the organization will have a Plan B (and maybe C, too) for the catcher spot in place by next year.

I concur with Eric on Chris Carpenter being vulnerable tonight -- I think the Mets can absolutely take this game and go to St. Louis in control of the series.  And I like their chances to win two of three from the battered Cardinals rotation while they're there.

A friend-of-a-friend came up with tickets to NLCS Game 6.  I've never hoped not to go to a playoff game before this.

by anonymous on Oct 13, 2006 1:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The fact he's hitting in front of another guy
who's also having a career year (and for Beltran, a career year is a year indeed) can't hurt.

Hitting is contagious, and lineups support each other.

by peeder on Oct 13, 2006 2:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah
There's no better jolt to your stats than hitting in front of someone like Beltran.  regardless, Duke is teh sexiness in my book.
"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Oct 13, 2006 3:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Shining star for you to see
what your life can truly be
"Choo-Choo, what's your wife's name?" "Mrs. Coleman"

by Rod Gaspar Fan Club on Oct 13, 2006 4:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

hitting behind reyes also
helps out paulie dooks. he sees fewer breaking pitches and, if he waits a few pitches, has a man in scoring position.
Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Oct 13, 2006 5:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Teh rain0ut r00lz
Just scored a ticket for tonight from a friend who had to choose between the rescheduled game and an Iron Maiden concert.

Oh Well, wherever, wherever you are,
Carlos Beltran's gonna get you, no matter how far.
See the blood flow watching it shed up above my head.
Carlos Beltran wants you for dead

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on Oct 13, 2006 2:19 PM EDT   0 recs

OK
Grats on the ticket.
Condolences on have a friend who is an Iron Maiden fan.
"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Oct 13, 2006 3:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

typo
* having
"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Oct 13, 2006 3:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Indeed
But, again, congrats to me on having a friend who is apparently more of an Iron Maiden fan than a Mets fan, and directly benefiting therefrom.

But yeah, I don't get it either.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on Oct 13, 2006 4:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Carpenter on the Road
Eric

Does your analysis take into account that Busch is a better than average park for pitchers and that you would therefore expect his numbers to be better at home than on the road?  With that in mind, the fact that Shea is an even better pitcher's park than Busch may further complicate the picture.

by Shomov on Oct 13, 2006 4:15 PM EDT   0 recs

Park Factors
Busch III had a park factor of 98 in 2006. Busch II had factors of 96, 97 and 102 from 2003-2005. Shea was a 95 in 2006, 99 in each of 2003-2005. Certainly this skews things a bit, but his home parks have been similar enough to Shea to make little difference between home and road environments.

It's likely that he is just more comfortable pitching at home, which isn't surprising. The bigger advantage for the Mets is with regard to their lefty/righty platoon splits (they are lefty heavy) since Carpenter is much better against right-handed batters.

Further, Shea Stadium is consistently a much better park for LHB than it is for RHB, particularly with regard to homeruns. Shea actually inflates LHB homeruns (while it depresses RHB homeruns), so this works to the Mets' advantage again with power guys like Beltran and Delgado hitting from the left side and someone like Wright who is proficient at going the opposite way.

These are all just predictive tools and in no way guarantees that the Mets will handle Carpenter easily (or at all). Platoon splits are just interesting to me and I wonder why more managers don't take advantage of it. (case in point: Jose Valentin can't hit lefties worth a damn. He should probably give up batting righty altogether and just hit lefty against everyone).

by Eric Simon on Oct 13, 2006 4:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Lo Duca
I thought Lo Duca was a questionable move, too, but I'm amazed at what he can do with a bat.  In the NLDS, he poked a ball for a hit that was about a foot outside and three inches off the ground.

by Attila on Oct 13, 2006 4:25 PM EDT   0 recs

Pre-Game Prediction
We're going to tag Carpenter for five, count 'em, five runs.

Book it.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Oct 13, 2006 4:53 PM EDT   0 recs

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